Kiama – NSW 2023

I agree with the above assessment. This could be a really tight race. I don’t expect Gareth Ward to remain. Most party MPs who become independent don’t end up winning re-election.

Interestingly the federal election figures show that the main commercial centres of Nowra, Bomaderry, Kiama and Albion Park are all Labor-leaning. This means that the character and profile of the candidates matter. Whoever can field a likable and strong campaigner or someone with name recognition will then perform strongly.

Does anyone know if Mr Ward is still suspended from nsw parliament

My understanding is he’s still suspended, receiving his full salary and still doing political work and lobbying.

Shades of Matt Brown?

He goes for trial in February 2023 but is still active on social media. His in-person campaigning is somewhat restricted since one of his bail conditions is not to come within 200 metres of any school etc. He is doing no door knocking. He did appear in the Supreme Court for local Liberal Shellharbour councillor Kelly Marsh earlier this year so he is still practicing?

Labor could win this despite the high margin. If Gareth Ward runs as an independent, he and the Liberal candidate will split votes and his voters may not necessarily preference Liberal and vice versa.

Kiama is one of Labor’s pre-2011 heartland seats that still hasn’t flipped back to Labor. They also preselected their candidate really early which suggests they see this within arm’s reach.

Ward wins comfortably Volante. His polling numbers are apparently very very solid.

Moderate, where did you get local polling figures from? I think this seat will be quite competitive given Ward is considered a party defector who is also under indictment to a certain extent. Similar members who were under indictment who attempted to run for re-election in the US generally polled poorly and came close to losing.

Also, the environment overall favours Labor so that would suggest a close contest where either Ward or the endorsed Liberal candidate will only squeak by with a margin of 2-3% or less.

Re Kiama don’t see how Ward can win… to be quite Frank I don’t seem to see how a liberal can win. Assume that Moderate ‘s polling figures are correct. Ward faces his court case and he is still suspended… if I were a non aligned voter why would I vote for half an mp?

Ward is another Peter Slipper and Craig Kelly. Won’t even crack 10%

To Votante’s earlier comment regarding the major centres in this seat; there are a couple of issues.

Firstly, whilst Nowra is included in the Federal seat of Gilmore; the southern boundary is the Shoalhaven River and being on the southern bank, is actually part of South Coast state electorate.

Bomaderry, on the north bank of the Shoalhaven, obviously gravitates more to its larger sister over the river than to the rest of the Kiama electorate. It is actually a significantly smaller centre than Gerringong further north. Both Bomaderry and Gerrigong (the latter having a large retirement facility) are actually “swing” areas rather than solid for either major party.

Kiama probably leans more to Labour but would still classify it as highly marginal turf.

Albion Park (part of the much safer Federal Labour seat of Whitlam) is most certainly strong Labour.

Whilst historically this may have been a Labour leaning seat; other than the City of Shellharbour segment around Albion Park; the bulk of the seat is best described as marginal. In all honesty, this may be a seat whose incumbency will mirror that of the governing party.

Ward will win – plain and simple. All polling points to him collecting the seat. He will have a better chance of winning if there is no Liberal candidate. With local Liberal SEC subverting the preselection process – we might see a parachute candidate Liberal candidate. Based on the current climate, there certainly won’t be a local liberal.

The Albion Park area isn’t safe Labor anymore. The rapid development expansion has changed the area’s demographic.

Stephen Jones’ primary collapsed last election by about 8% in the Albion Park area and 6% in 2019, displaying a long term trend against Labor. And the right leaning candidate, Kellie Marsh got 66.6% of the primary in the initial council election. Liberals also one every booth in the region in the 2019 state election.

The 2019 election result shows what is possible for this seat when the liberal vote hits its Max possible. This won’t happen again there will be a 6% plus swing to labor

This seat is a “scandal ” seat which harms the existing mp.. plus his replacement

The very serious allegations against Ward may prove to topple his control of this seat.

Ward is no Troy Bell. He isn’t winning, Stop bringing up polls because polls don’t decide elections, voters do.

This seat is a must win for Labor if they can’t pick up Ryde or Epping for majority government.

I think that is a wild overestimation. From all I can see at the moment, Labor are not gaining any of those three seats.
Yes, polls can be poor predictions for elections, as shown by the 1993 and 2019 federal elections, but more often than not they provide a useful insight into potential results. Potential is the key word in this. Polls can be wrong, but mostly act as useful indications.
As for this seat, the circumstances seem challenging with regards to predictions. On one hand, Ward seems to be a reasonably popular member with a community profile. On the other hand, his court cases and the seriousness of his charges cannot go unnoticed, along with his suspension, making him unable to actually act as a representative.
I’m going to predict a liberal retain/gain, possibly (though unlikely) with Ward in the final count. At this point, I can’t see him retaining due to the severity of the accusations, but I also definitely can’t see Labor taking a seat on a 12% margin in one stroke in the current climate.

Daniel this seat is not a must win for Labor.. I would be very surprised if Ward was in the Final 2.. This seat was a Labor seat with I think a 6% margin before Ward won it.. it was a scandal seat then and is a scandal seat now. They margins under opv do not mean that much.

Opv bonus Right 57 left 43
Bonus 5 %>

It’s an obvious retain for Ward. If there is a three way contest he will win based on internal polling. There are still those loyal to him within the local branches that will continue to ensure a local liberal is not preselected.

What the hell is the deal here? Is there anyone from Kiama here that can explain Ward’s history with the community?

Dan. I cannot explain that.. but all things being equal I would expect a liberal loss. For the liberals to win they need Wards preferences but for Ward to win.he needs liberal preferences. The liberals cannot justify this remember they supported his suspension. I would unless the world is very weird expect a Labor win

Re margin here due to opv bonus is inflated only approx 7%..this was the vest vote the liberals have had for ages even
Winning the most pro Labor booths round Albion Park. That will not be repeated.

Gareth Ward will run as an independent. Dom Perrottet says the Libs will win Kiama but they don’t even have a candidate.

TBH, I think the arrangement will be that the Liberals will run dead in the seat, as Gareth Ward is still really popular in the error, and await the outcome of the court case. If Ward is found Guilty, The Liberal Party puts up a new candidate at the next by-election and probably romps it in. If Ward is found Not Guilty, then the Liberal Party welcomes him back into the fold as an MP only.

Libs are not winning Hawkeye. You have made no case as to why in the absence of Ward, Labor would be in a weaker position than the coalition. Has the federal results In this area failed to sink in yet?

I understand you may support the coalition but wishful thinking isn’t the way to predict elections. I’m not trying to attack anyone here, I’m simply annoyed when someone states that Labor won’t win here and there, even though the polls clearly disagree with you.

If Labor wins government and Ward wins and resigns, yes governments do get swings against them I by-elections, but that depends when it’s held. Look at Eden-Monaro and Bragg.

No evidence to suggest this seat is trending away from Labor. And neither side should be arrogant about this seat, it will be critically marginal.

What are your reasons to favour the Liberals. And what are your reasons to believe the polls are lying about Labors massive lead?

Daniel, reading some tea leaves from commentators and local articles, I think Gareth Ward is probably like embattled ex Liberal state MP for Mt Gambier Troy Bell. Both whilst under indictment still remain popular with locals and Bell managed to win re-election fairly comfortably at the recent SA election as an independent, even when faced with both Labor and Liberal opponents.

I think Kiama may play out in a similar fashion, with Gareth Ward winning comfortably as an independent, even whilst he is under indictment. Like Mt Gambier, the Illawarra area is also known for electing independent MP’s fairly regularly at the state level.

Then again, Gareth’s offenses (sexual assault) are probably seen as more severe than Troy Bell’s campaign fund misappropriation. Because of this, I believe Troy Bell wasn’t forced to stand down as MP unlike Gareth.

Seriously Daniel T, the more comments you make, the most respect you seriously lose. I don’t think you have once paid attention to any of the criticisms levelled on you, given your repeatedly antagonistic posting.

Kiama is notionally a fairly safe Liberal Seat and, as Yoh An pointed out, Gareth Ward is incredibly popular in the area and would likely win as an independent. There is a long way to go with his court case but, you would assume that the Liberal Party has probably done enough at this stage to distance themselves from Gareth Ward in the Interim. You need to remember as well that he hasn’t been found guilty yet so he is entitled to the resumption of innocence so I would suggest you be very careful with what you say next, as the last thing you would want to do is write something that could be construed as defamatory in the current circumstances.

Let’s see if you acknowledge that warning

Agreed Hawkeye.

The story of Kiama was it was Labor held. As long as it was roughly half Shellharbour suburbs half Kiama. Boundary changes made it think about 6% Labor in a reasonable election. Mr Ward won it in a big swing held on on 2015 with a minimal swing then 2019 he got a swing to him and got the best result for the liberal party for ages. This is where the seat sits
Now..it is not a safe liberal seat bit potentially marginal given the circumstances..Mr Ward won so well because the Labor mp.was on the nose in a once in 50.year election. For the liberals. Now circumstances have changed. Mr Ward is facing serious criminal.charges which the legal system.will determine. He was suspended from parliament with the support of the government. Given a prolabor swing across nsw of 6 to 8% and the undetermined situation re the criminal charges, I do not see how either the liberals or Mr Ward could win here. If either were to win they would need the others support
The liberals must contest this seat.. how can they preference Mr Ward or rely on his preferences to.win. unless I have really misjudged how could Mr Ward win this seat.. and if he did he is still suspended. It.is ironic but it is best for the liberals if Labor wins

I wasn’t talking about Ward winning, he may. I am specifically talking about when you said if he is forced out that the Liberals would be strong favourites to win over Labor which you have offered no explanation as to why that would be the case.

Labor will take this when Ward is pushed so I agree with Mick.

Millennials will make the largest voting bloc this time around I believe with Gen Z also making a large presence, why would the Liberal party win the election when they are despised by these age groups like they were with the federal coalition who were trashed in May by younger voters?

Will Liberal Party supporters accept the result of the state election if/when they lose?

What people fail to understand is in 2011 a dead cocker spaniel endorsed by the liberals would have won. The 2pp although not real accurate showed 65/ 35 the liberals way in 2015 there was a swing back to 55/45 pro liberal margin ..in 2019.. there was a further swing to Labor and the 2pp was 52/48. Two things to note the liberals outpolled Labor each time and opv was the voting system. This time round the alp will win 54/46 2pp at least and outpoll the coalition candidates in primary votes. I am not 100% sure but for the liberals to win in nsw I think they need to outpoll Labor in primary votes. Also the teals or a teal like independent are a new development post the 2022 federal election.. this also presents a potential danger to the liberals on Sydney’s north shore in maybe 5 seats. Opv does not mean the liberals are protected from the teals.. and vic does not prove this

Daniel, I will make a partial rebuttal of your comment, specifically the last paragraph where you say millennial voters will not be backing the Coalition.

I believe you quoted in another comment that young voters want action on climate change and mental health. That is precisely what the NSW Coalition is focussing on, they already implemented state-based emission reduction scheme/s ahead of the Federal Coalition and are also spending heavily on mental health for young people, pretty much in line with Labor controlled states. The only issue/gripe I might have relates to native forest logging, as like Tasmania the state Coalition is not addressing this as well compared to what Victorian Labor is doing.

Yoh An, Thanks for the info I did not know this, all I know is the coalition keeps fighting over climate even today. There are still many in the NSW Lib party room that are skeptics or are climate-donothingers, voters still are skeptical of the Liberal parties record on climate and they get flashbacks.

I’m not sure about the mental health part, it could be better, and I’m not sure how it compares up here in Queensland, and as someone who has a mental disability I have to say mental health treatment/services is incredibly poor up here and is nowhere near par. Don’t know what it’s like in NSW, but I am moving to Victoria later this year because that’s one of the reasons, they have better services.

If forest logging was a big issue, why do the Libs keep winning in Tasmania, and hold federal seats there? Why did Howard win Tasmania in 2004? Didn’t Labor back then want to stop logging/deforestation?

I am wary of trying to classify people as pre boomer Millenials
Gen x.. post gen x… it is the case that the older you are the more likely you are to vote non Labor. The population proportionately has more younger than older people. The pre boomer generation are becoming less and less. I being born in 1955 am a middle range boomer. BUT no way on earth I will vote for the conservatives or the far right like onp

This seat is still more likely Labor than South Coast according to history. Labor will win the TPP here, but might lose the TCP to Ward.

This will be Labor vs Ward, Big drop in the Liberal primary vote will go to Ward and some to Labor.

Ok Daniel T, first off, to post blatantly antagonistic posts like you do and then use Mental Disabilities as a defence is an insult. FYI, I have ASD and to watch it used as a defence mechanism in that manner as an excuse for poor behaviour is insulting. So no. I’m not copping that.

Secondly, your attempts to use gross generalisations about the LNP in Queensland (where you live) and apply them to NSW have been off the mark on so many occasions. It’s about time you start taking a hint from us that do live in NSW (or have had a close connection with NSW) and understanding that maybe, just maybe, we know the lay of the land better than you.

@Mick Q – I think you will find that the term I used to describe Kiama is Fairly Safe. I wouldn’t call it an out-and-out marginal seat but it would be one of those seats that is on the cusp of Labor needing to win to win majority (same with Winston Hills). You are correct about 2011 and the boundary changes but that 6% margin pre-2011 was always an incredibly soft margin, given the combination of how useless the state Liberal Party had been for years and the fact that they had never seriously campaigned in that seat before. I would say as well that you are under-estimating Gareth Ward’s personal vote in this seat, which is very apparent to see now, given that he had a swing to him at the last election.

Let me clarify what I said as well, given that some people have made a habit of twisting words. I said that the Liberal Party will run Dead here in 2023. They will put up a candidate with no pulse. The intention is that they will let Gareth Ward have a clean run for this state election and I think he will likely win as an Independent. If he is exonerated of all charges, he will likely return to the Liberal Party. If he is convicted of the charges, there will be a by-election and the Liberal Party running against Ward will be able to then have set sufficient distance that they would be in a shot of winning the seat back outright.

Mate I never used it as a defence, I just stated the services are poor up here. I wasn’t antagonising anyone. I am simply trying to find out why you are suggesting the Liberals would be favourites in absence of Ward. This seat is not naturally leaning Liberal. The margin before 2011 clearly is in disagreement with you because it was a Labor seat. Ward has worked hard to get the seat on the margin it is now and there is 0 evidence to suggest that this seat would Lean Liberal in the absence of Ward.

The demographics don’t add up to a Liberal seat here. It is naturally like Gilmore, pivotal and marginal.

Can someone explain the logic behind why the Liberals would be favourites here in the absence of Ward? Help me understand, educate me.

I don’t need to live in NSW to know the Liberal party is a **Centre-Right Neo-Liberal**, it is not the same party that federally used to be led by Menzies or Holt, it is the most conservative the Liberals have been since Askin at a state level.

How do you explain Perrottet’s previous support of Trump and the recent incident involving the symbols?

For the record I do not like Labor or Liberal, And there are many occasions where I have underestimated Labors support on this website (like many have)

I retain belief that Ward can win, but in the absence of him or in 2027 if he is a Liberal again, it will go down to the wire, unless anyone can give me a compelling argument as to why the Liberals are stronger in an area that is naturally marginal at a federal level, and was held by Labor during the Carr and Wran years.

People here have made guesses myself included. I am not on the ground although I may campaign for Labor in Kiama, depending on my local commitments. Some one quoted on pollbludger said their relatives in Kiama “loved” Mr Ward…. so there is an element of his support. The point remains that Mr Ward will not win outright neither can the liberals. They need each others preferences if either will win. My opinion is neither will win.. but obviously no one knows until the election

I often disagree with Daniel’s comments but I think he has a point here. If Ward is re-elected and then is disqualified, I think Labor would have a good shot at this seat. It’s certainly not out of reach.

Daniel, as a former Sydneysider I can indicate that Perrottet historically emphasised his Christian faith more so compared to Scott Morrison. However, their personalities are completely different.

In press conferences, Morrison was always seen as antagonistic. He was constantly gaslighting and deflecting tough questions posed to him. In contrast, Perrottet has shown a more tempered approach when handling press conferences. He usually gives straight answers and appears as a more down to earth, likeable character. Hence that is why he doesn’t come across as the usual kind of right-wing attack dog that others of his background (Abbott, Morrison, Dutton et al.) were perceived.

Daniel, you just did and your attempt to deflect from what is a constant behaviour of antagonism is galling. Your comments straight after reflect your continued attempts at antagonism and you have constantly refused to acknowledge your behaviour. You need to reconsider how you approach your comments going forward.

To answer your points:
1. No the Liberal Party is not a party of conservatives, especially in NSW, where the Left of the Liberal Party has control. This is another moment where your experiences in QLD cloud your judgement and you don’t do your research properly. Just because Perrottet is Premier doesn’t mean that the conservatives have control of the party room or the party as a whole. So, while you may not need to live in NSW, your lack of an attempt to take the word of those who do live in NSW is just one example of why no-one takes you seriously.
2. The attempt to compare Kiama with Gilmore is ridiculous. Kiama basically straddles the south-east side of Whitlam (IMO, a complete basket-case of a seat but currently sits comfortably with Labor), along with the north side of Gilmore. In the old days of Throsby, the Coalition wouldn’t have bothered campaigning here at all, due to Labor’s strength immediately around Lake Illawarra. But as Kiama, it is better for the Liberal Party as it is further south of Lake Illawarra. This is a small pocket of the Illawarra region that is actually not bad for the Coalition.
3. The comment about Perrottet supporting Trump is irrelevant to this election so I don’t know why you even bothered bringing it up.
4. Finally, my comment still stands that this is a fairly safe seat for the Liberal Party. Not a “Safe Seat” but more in that tipping point range of a seat that Labor has to win if they are to win a majority, especially given the likely size of the cross-bench.
5. Yoh An is 100% Correct. Perrottet has been a lot more tempered in his approach and the idea of him being a spear-thrower for the extreme right these days is ridiculous. It should be remembered as well that Chris Minns is actually quite a strong social conservative as well, as are most members of the NSW ALP Right, to the point that they wouldn’t look out of place in the Liberal Party either. You need to remember that, early on in his life, Neville Wran was a member of the Liberal Party and was president of the Sydney University Liberal Club. The days of the Liberal Party in NSW being dominated by David Clarke are long gone.

@Ben – It really comes down to how well the Liberal Party can keep Gareth Ward at Arm’s Distance while the investigation is going on. The allocation of preferences could also be key in this upcoming election as well. A preference exchange between Ward and the Liberal Candidate would be an incredibly risky move, insofar as if Ward is convicted, then Labor has a ready-made campaign to go after the Liberal Party for agreeing to a preference exchange with a convicted paedophile.

@Mick – Not a bad assessment. It is true that the seat would likely go down to preferences but, given how strong Gareth Ward’s personal vote is now in Kiama, you could still see him getting up without 50% of the Primary Vote, especially as that vote for the CDP would likely flow back to him anyway. Labor would need to get their primary vote here into the Mid-high 30’s and have a strong preference flow to win this seat, going against the exhaustion trend in this seat.

I live about 500 metres outside of Kiama and am very familiar with Albion Park/Albion Rail. Contrary to what outsiders assume, Ward is not popular in the electorate. He is seen as sneaky. The ALP candidate in 2019 was very very weak – a CFMEU mining official and not well known. Ward hits the social media media everywhere eg all the “Our” sites but gets little “likes” or responses at all. Anything unfavourable gets taken down. Look at his tweeter site if you don’t believe me? His poor response on Our Albion Park and Our Albion Rail is telling as both these site are close to LNP fronts particularly the Park which is moderated by guess who, Kellie Marsh, his counsellor side kick. At the by-election in September 2022 her vote fell about 7%. She and her landlord side kick Shane Biskauit are both out of the Liberal Party (perhaps Marsh expelled). I expect Ward will finish fourth behind the Greens who are a chance if ordinary Liberals wake up to the possibility of a tactical vote, Liberals preference and maybe Ward?
Jones held his vote in Albion Park/Albion Rail last time. If you are working off AEC swing figures beware as they post a swing for the major booth, Albion Park pre-poll, but there was no Albion park pre-poll in 2019. too lazy or uninterested to correct after the night. So there is about 14% of the vote in play there which ward got last time?

Daniel, i would have to agree with Hawkeye and Yoh An, it is a bit of a fallacy to compare the LNP of Queensland to the NSW Liberals. The LNP is more populist as the electoral map of Queensland is quite different to that in NSW. Queensland is a decentralized state so rural and regional voters have a greater impact this allows for a populist message to succeed in NSW that is not the case. I pointed this out to you in the Wallsend thread. NSW Liberals are closest to a traditional Liberal government which is why i would say i cannot see any evidence of a realignment at a state level. While Perrottet maybe personally conservative i doubt it will have an impact as the Government that he lead is perceived as competent, achieved quite a lot in terms of service delivery, environment and the economy and therefore does not need to rely on Wedge politics to stay in power. This is why it is able to win seats such as Penrith, Mulgoa, Riverstone and East Hills without moving to the far right. I doubt Perottet religion is relevant to the government he leads i dont think the people care if he fasts during Lent etc, they care about if the Public Transport take them home in time, the quality of Health care they receive, the Quality of Education their children receive. Mike Baird was also quite religious and personally conservative but that did not hurt him at all electorally including in affluent seats.

Roger Roughead – “Ward is not popular in the electorate.”

Lets unpack that. He has turned on 2007 figures a 57/43 ALP seat to a 61/39 Lib seat. Thats a 24% turnaround. Can you please identify how you define popular??

The left tends to have better preference discipline than the right and it led to AJP beating Leyonhjelm in the LC.

I think Greens may be underrated here. Looking at the Kiama council results, Greens pulled 27%, outpolling Labor (at 17%). Not sure how the various independent groups are aligned.

The Greens candidate is Tonia Grey from Shoalhaven, who polled 26.9% in Ward 1, outpolling Labor (at 18.2%), which was to be expected with Findley’s high profile campaign. The conservative SIG got 37.33%.

Greens didn’t run in Shellharbour, and they’ll likely direct local resources to South Coast at this election. But this may well be a 4 cornered contest (Liberals, Ward, Labor, Greens), and the left bloc will have an advantage with preference discipline.

@Moderate we can glean a little more about how popular someone is than just from looking at the general election results – the last of which was almost 4 years ago. If you run the same logic across most Coalition held seats since 2011, then by your reckoning they’d all be hugely popular local candidates. Maybe true in some cases, but a lot has to do with the repulsion to NSW Labor up until this current cycle, and also the fairly strong performance of successive Premiers and senior cabinet Ministers (again, up until this cycle). I think we’ll learn a lot about how much of a personal vote Gladys carried last time in all the key seats.

I’ve heard plenty of similar anecdotal evidence around locals being off Gareth, even before the scandal broke. Aside from that, he’s been pretty involved in a lot of the local factional brawling over federal candidates, which is never a great look (and not making any comment on whether he was on the right or wrong side of that). The other thing I hear is that his self-promoting with local voters is awkward and desperate – yes they all are, but he’s on another level. THat’s what I’ve heard, for what it’s worth.

I think this seat will be one where the result isnt called for a few days.

being an outsider I can’t imagine that Ward has become more popular in the past 4 years – but I can only take the word of locals on this one. I would have thought his vote as an independent candidate would be about 10 – 15%

I assume most Ward voters would preference the Libs but maybe not vice versa

The discussion of Mr Ward was when he won as the endorsed liberal candidate with no scandal and he got 53% primary.. assume he has a large amount of support . This will not translate into a primary vote win he needs liberal party preferences to win or alternatively the liberal party needs his preferences to win. Here lies the problem for the liberals and they know that. If they preference him they are supporting a person they consider unfit to sit in parliament and if they accept his preferences then they are showing they need his tainted vote to win.. this is the reverse of the same coin. Any sane voter in Kiama cannot support Ward or the yet to be announced candidate.