Holsworthy – NSW 2023

LIB 6.2%

Incumbent MP
Melanie Gibbons, since 2011.

Geography
South-west Sydney. Holsworthy covers south-eastern parts of the City of Liverpool and a small north-western part of Sutherland Shire. Holsworthy covers Alfords Point, Barden Ridge, Chipping Norton, Holsworthy, Lucas Heights, Lurnea, Moorebank, Wattle Grove and part of Menai.

Redistribution
Holsworthy shifted further into the Sutherland Shire and out of the City of Liverpool, gaining Alfords Point from Miranda and parts of Menai from Heathcote. Holsworthy lost Prestons to Leppington and Casula to Macquarie Fields. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 3.3% to 6.2%.

History
Menai was first created at the 1999 redistribution. The seat was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Alison Megarrity with a 4.2% margin. She was re-elected in 2003 with an increased 9.5% margin.

In 2007, Megarrity won a third term, but with a reduced 2.7% margin.

In 2011, Megarrity retired and Liberal candidate Melanie Gibbons won Menai with a huge 27% swing. Gibbons was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Melanie Gibbons is running for the seat of Kiama after losing preselection.

Assessment
Holsworthy is held by a not insignificant margin but could be in play, especially considering Gibbons’ involuntary removal from the seat.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Melanie Gibbons Liberal 21,481 44.5 -5.0 47.3
Charishma Kaliyanda Labor 18,152 37.6 +1.2 35.2
Michael Byrne One Nation 3,905 8.1 +8.1 6.9
Chris Kerle Greens 2,191 4.5 +0.0 4.6
Gae Constable Animal Justice 1,901 3.9 +3.9 3.6
Roland Barber Liberal Democrats 614 1.3 +1.3 1.0
Others 1.4
Informal 2,256 4.5

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Melanie Gibbons Liberal 22,861 53.3 -3.4 56.2
Charishma Kaliyanda Labor 20,042 46.7 +3.4 43.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Holsworthy have been split into three parts. Polling places in the Sutherland Shire have been grouped as “east”. Polling places in the City of Liverpool have been split by the Georges River into “central” and “west”.

There is a great deal in difference in two-party-preferred votes between these three areas. The Liberal two-party-preferred vote was 69.5% in the east and 60.1% in the centre, while Labor won 60.2% in the west.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 3.2% in the east to 8.3% in the centre.

Voter group ON prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 8.3 60.1 16,394 34.4
West 6.9 39.8 8,282 17.4
East 3.2 69.5 8,194 17.2
Other votes 7.7 53.8 8,211 17.2
Pre-poll 7.2 52.7 6,586 13.8

Election results in Holsworthy at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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57 COMMENTS

  3. Probably the most unfortunate boundaries to come out the redistribution. My suggestion to the redistribution panel was to have Holsworthy shed the remainder of the Sutherland Shire (except for Sandy Point) and consolidate to the west of the Georges River. However, the cost of this was East Hills had to be drawn into the Sutherland Shire (Alfords Point and Illawong).

  4. Agreed Mick, 2234 votes blue and this will probably see the seat won by the Libs again. Especially with the loss of the western side suburbs. The biggest and most interesting part about this seat is the preselection challenge. Mel has been challenged by Tina Ayyad. With the support of Ned’s branches and the hostility of the Sutherland Business branch, that has been allocated to the Holsworthy SEC, Melanie is at real risk of being disendorsed. Although I think either Melanie or Tina would both win the seat. To Nicholas’ point I don’t think that East Hills should hop the river. It’s just unfortunate that the Shire requires 3.5 seats with its population. Honestly Heathcote should be drawn further with Menai and Western 2234 and Holsworthy should stay further West.

  5. All depends on enrolment on the south coast. Assuming future redistribution panels are unwilling to draw districts like Eden-Monaro and Whitlam (straddling coastal and inland areas), Heathcote will always be a district that mops up whatever is left over in the northern suburbs of Wollongong, plus as much of the Sutherland Shire as is necessary to reach a quota.

  6. Agree Nicholas, the geography of the Sydney basin and how it interacts with the Illawarra escarpment/hills affects how you can draw electoral boundaries with at least one district having to straddle the gap between unpopulated areas.

    I believe this situation also occurs with Queensland state districts around the Pine Rivers/Moreton Bay council area, as there are seats that straddle both urban and rural areas.

  7. Rethinking my comment.. libs
    Still in box seat.but this is
    Right on the 6% margin with a 6% uneven swing to come.
    This will come down to thr skills
    Of the 2 candidates

  9. The Daily Telegraph reports that Melanie Gibbons lost her pre-selection last night and that Tina Ayyad is the Liberal candidate. I expect this to be a Liberal hold given the strength of the Sutherland Shire’s 2234 suburbs for the Liberal Party and the removal of some of the strong Labor areas from the west of the seat.

  10. Melanie’s being rolled is great
    News for Labor. She had a margin of 6.3% there will now
    Be disharmony in the libs which
    Will help..6% is right on the border of the seats which
    Will decide the election
    I will check the opv bonus next

  11. Boundary changes add 2.9 to liberal vote opv bonus 0.6
    This seat will go down the wire
    Will depend upon the candidates also I expect an uneven 6% swing which will take away the small opv bonus

  12. I wonder why so many Liberal MPs are retiring or forced out of their seats. Is this all a coincidence?

    Many of the huge batch of MPs elected in 2011 are exiting.

  13. Votante cannot answer the first
    Part as I do not know the inner
    Workings of the liberal party. My guess is the cmmtte of 3 making federal preselections would not have been universally
    Disliked by lib party members
    The second part is 2023 will
    Most probably elect a Labor govt which is likely to last 2 terms. MINISTERS and others don’t wish to stay round in opposition

  14. Strange choice given the seat mostly represents the shier and Ayyad wife of mannoun is based in liverpool suprised he is not runing somwhere him self lepington would make most sence he seems very popular but maybi the old icac stuff has liberal oficials nervis about a run especialy as there going after asfour

  15. Actually about 3/4s of the seat’s population (going on election day booths in 2019) are in the Liverpool LGA. Just look at the maps, you can see the LGA boundary as a thin green line.

  16. This is pretty much an F U from the Mannoun Family to the Left of the Liberal Party, who have helped protect Melanie Gibbons in this seat for far too long. It actually sets up a very interest study over the new few years, with Ned sitting as Mayor of Liverpool Council and his wife potentially becoming the MP for Holsworthy.

  18. I think the Liberal Party will be looking to engineer a move for either Natasha MacLaren-Jones or Natalie Ward into the LA, which would open up a spot for Melanie Gibbons to move into the LC. The difference between the two roles is that Natasha is classified as “At-Large”, while Natalie Ward covers “Metro North”, which would put her at-odds with where she lives, given she would cover “Metro South”

  19. well gibens lacks branch suport on the shier now cook will most likely go toaterney general mark speakman her partner kent johns nelly lost his cowncil spot as he has lost influence swiching from photious faction to allex haawkes senter right mclaron jones is from hawkes group as well ayyad has not been confirmed yet so think gibens will not get an upper house spot and the liver pool mayor being controversial will not help his wife

  20. Is it just me or does anyone else find it painful to decipher what Aaron Newtown is typing?

    I can get what he is saying eventually but jeez…

  21. Agree hawkeye, aaron newtons posts have lots of spelling and grammar mistakes

    Maybe he is from an esl background and hasnt proofread his comments before posting

  22. Left 47 right 53 no opv bonus to the libs .most of Menai is now in the seat. This boosted the liberal margin by 3%.. this makes it a difficult seat to win for Labor. The preselection result shows the liberal divisions for all to see. Uncertain result here

  23. On pollbludger Aaron said something about a disability which caused his manner of expression. Maybe he could ask a friend to write in a more clear way.. the actual content is well thought out and makes good logically consistent points

  24. ” well Gibbons lacks branch support. Cook preselection will most likely go to the Attorney- General Speakman…. I think.Gibbons will most likely not get an upper house spot”
    Trying to adjust Aaron ‘s post

  25. Thanks Mick and Yoh An. I could just about make out what he is trying to say and, while reasonable in terms of content, it takes a bit to get there.

    The funny thing is that these two seats are controlled by the Mods of the Liberal Party but the reason why Melanie Gibbons got rolled is because Ned Mannoun and his wife got sick and tired of the empty promises by the powerbrokers of the left that they decided to take for themselves what they could get. In this case, it was pre-selection for Holsworthy since, as rightly pointed out by Ben Raue, the majority of this seat is now in the Liverpool LGA and is centered around the Liberal-Friendly area of Liverpool (Moorebank, Chipping Norton, Wattle Grove and Hammondville).

  26. The NSW electoral commissions list of candidates now shows that Deborah Ann Swinbourn will be running as independent. In Swinbourn’s platform she says that she was in One Nation but has now resigned her membership

  27. i know the liberals are done in nsw at a state level but it will come down to if labor are in majority or minority. might be the one to lose. libs asking too much to come from behind after being in office for 3 terms.

  28. This seat now includes the most
    Of the Menai suburbs.. I would
    Pick this as probably liberal retain. This is unless The faction fighting with Ned his wife Kent and Melanie … do enough damage to the liberal vote…..

  29. it including a lot of the shier such as menie will not realy help them the liberals candadate Tena Ayad is from liverpool

  30. About three quarters of the seat is in the City of Liverpool, Aaron. If you look at the booth map, the ‘central’ and ‘west’ areas are all in Liverpool and they make up about 3/4 of the election day vote.

  31. Who in their right mind would vote for Tina Ayyad, a councilor who rarely attended committee or briefing meetings at Liverpool Council. I dread to think she would not improve on that performance in the state government, representing Holsworthy, should we be so unlucky as to get her as our next MP.
    Mellanie Gibbons should run as an independent and ditch the LIBs like they did her. Her brand will collect quite a swathe of votes from the disillusioned Liberal voters of Holsworthy.

  32. Liberal hold, albeit with a smaller margin. The One Nation vote will retract. The independent (ex-One Nation) will split the right-wing votes. I see the Liberals scraping through.

  33. Well, there are other choices to Liberal or Labor.
    You could always vote for the Holsworthy Independent candidate and have someone who actually lives there.

  34. Deborah – FYI – your facebook profile has a picture of the old Holsworthy Electorate and not the new redistributed one that people will be voting in at the Election.

  35. I am yet to identify a candidate worthy of anyone’s vote or preference in Holsworthy. Hope Melanie Gibbons goes independent

  36. I wonder if Moroney being a popular and well-known teacher in Menai will see Labor eat into the Liberal vote enough in that part of the seat for him to win? I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor take this seat this election.

  37. interesting how is morinie going hhe is from the shier part of the seat where is liberal new candadate ayad is from liverpool which is where the majority of the votes are and is a traditional labor aria

  38. The Liberal margin has been significantly buoyed by its intake of Bangor and Alfords Point (and loss of Prestons) however without the presence of consistent character Gibbons I think that Ayyad will suffer a certain swing against her, where its enough for Maroney to win I don’t know, particularly with Ayyad coming from the Liverpool side of the electorate.

  39. For Labor to win this seat, they’ll need some big swings towards them in Lurnea, Chipping Norton and Moorebank. The rest of the seat is rusted on liberal territory these days.

  40. With Tina Ayyad being the blow in for this election for Holsworthy, many Liberal voters would have got a good dose of anti rust!

  41. the problem for a alp win here is the 3% extra added on to the liberal vote.
    But the liberal faction fighting ,,,,,,, which led to the dumping of the sitting mp balances this
    at least pertly.. result will the close.

  42. yes – seems to have gained the Liberal heartland of aspirationals who will vote for anyone with Liberal next to the box

  43. Ayad is from liverpool when the majority of the seat is in the shier she is part of moderit faction andpartner oflocal mayor ned manaun suprised he is not running in a seat lepington would be the best bet in stead there running Ayad here and camden mayorthere maybi labors talk about ajaks appointment to head the local cowncil ment it was to risky to run him and ayads close suporter peter poulos who campaigned heavily for her being dumped from upper house may not help

  46. going back abit was just wondering if my posts re spelling have improved or weather still difficult to read will triy and proof read

  47. I think its good aaron, your recent posts have improved compared to ones that you submitted a few months ago.

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