LIB 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Wendy Tuckerman, since 2019.
Geography
Southern NSW. The electorate covers the towns of Goulburn, Yass, Boorowa, Crookwell and Moss Vale. The seat covers the entirety of the Goulburn Mulwaree, Yass Valley and Upper Lachlan council areas, and south-western parts of Wingecarribee Shire.
Redistribution
Goulburn lost the remainder of the Hilltops council area, including Boorowa. This change reduced the Liberal margin from 3.7% to 3.1%.
An electoral district named Goulburn existed continuously from 1859 until 1991. It was restored in 2007. The ALP dominated the seat from 1925 to 1965, and was held by the Country/National Party from 1965 until 1991. It is now a Liberal seat.
When proportional representation was introduced in NSW in 1920, Goulburn was expanded to cover Nowra, Yass, Bega, Eden, Queanbeyan and Cooma and elected three members. The district elected one Nationalist, one Progressive and one Labor in 1920 and 1922, but in 1925, elected two Labor and one Nationalist.
When Goulburn once again became a single-member district in 1927, it was won by the ALP’s Jack Tully, who had held one of Goulburn’s seats since 1925.
Jack Tully held the seat for the next two decades, with the exception of one term. In 1932 he lost to Peter Loughlin of the United Australia Party, then won it back in 1935. He then held his seat until his retirement in 1946.
The 1946 Goulburn by-election was won by Tully’s son, Laurie Tully. The younger Tully held the seat until his retirement in 1965.
In 1965, Goulburn was won by Mulwaree Shire president Ron Brewer, running for the Country Party. He resigned from the seat in 1974 to contest the federal seat of Eden-Monaro. After losing the federal race, he won back his state seat at the following by-election. He held the seat until his retirement in 1984.
The National Party’s Robert Webster won Goulburn in 1984. He was re-elected in 1988. By the 1988 election, Goulburn had shifted west so that it stretched out to the north and west of Goulburn, covering much of Lachlan Shire and the town of Cowra. Webster became a minister in the Liberal-National coalition government in 1989.
In 1991, the seat of Goulburn was abolished, and the neighbouring Liberal seat of Southern Highlands took over the town of Goulburn, while the rest of the seat shifted into Burrinjuck, which was then a Liberal seat. Webster shifted to the Legislative Council, where he remained until his retirement in 1995. He served as a minister until his retirement from politics.
The town of Goulburn was now included in the seat of Southern Highlands, which was held by senior minister John Fahey. He became Premier in 1992 when Nick Greiner resigned. Fahey lost power in 1995, and in 1996 he resigned from Southern Highlands to contest the federal seat of Macarthur, which he won. He went on to hold Macarthur until his retirement in 2001, and served as Finance Minister in the Howard government.
Fahey was succeeded in Southern Highlands in 1996 by Liberal candidate Peta Seaton. Seaton held the seat until her retirement in 2007.
The 1999 redistribution shifted Southern Highlands deeper into the Wollondilly area, while the town of Goulburn shifted into the neighbouring seat of Burrinjuck. Burrinjuck had been held by Liberal MP Alby Schultz from 1988 until 1998, when he left the seat to win the federal seat of Hume. His state seat was won by National Party candidate Katrina Hodgkinson. Hodgkinson held Burrinjuck until it was renamed Cootamundra in 2015, and retired in 2017.
At the 2007 election, the seat of Southern Highlands was abolished. The northern part of the seat was added to the new seat of Wollondilly, while the Southern Highlands itself was combined with the town of Goulburn in the restored seat of Goulburn.
In 2007, the seat was won by former federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner Pru Goward. She saw off a challenge from Goulburn Mulwaree mayor Paul Stephenson.
Pru Goward was re-elected in 2011 and 2015, and served as a minister from 2011, until she retired from parliament in 2019.
Liberal candidate Wendy Tuckerman won Goulburn in 2019.
Assessment
Goulburn has gradually become more marginal and could be in play in 2023, although Tuckerman will presumably have the benefit of incumbency which could help buck any trend to Labor.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Wendy Tuckerman | Liberal | 19,957 | 39.1 | -9.7 | 38.7 |
| Ursula Stephens | Labor | 15,355 | 30.1 | -4.2 | 30.3 |
| Richard Orchard | One Nation | 4,723 | 9.3 | +9.3 | 9.3 |
| Andy Wood | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 4,847 | 9.5 | +9.5 | 9.3 |
| Saan Ecker | Greens | 4,100 | 8.0 | +0.2 | 8.2 |
| Tracey Keenan | Animal Justice | 1,247 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.5 |
| Dean Mccarae | Liberal Democrats | 828 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.6 |
| Informal | 1,616 | 3.1 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Wendy Tuckerman | Liberal | 22,359 | 53.5 | -3.1 | 53.1 |
| Ursula Stephens | Labor | 19,398 | 46.5 | +3.1 | 46.9 |
Booths in Goulburn have been split into four areas, based on local government boundaries. Polling places in Goulburn Mulwaree, Yass Valley and Wingecarribee council areas respectively have been grouped as Goulburn, Yass Valley and Southern Highlands. Polling places in the Upper Lachlan council areas have been grouped as ‘north-west’.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 51.8% in Yass Valley to 62.2% in the north-west. Labor won 54.2% in Goulburn.
| Voter group | SFF prim | ON prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Goulburn | 11.7 | 10.5 | 45.8 | 9,907 | 20.1 |
| Southern Highlands | 5.7 | 8.2 | 58.6 | 8,491 | 17.2 |
| Yass Valley | 7.8 | 7.2 | 51.8 | 6,061 | 12.3 |
| North-West | 11.9 | 9.6 | 62.2 | 3,583 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.1 | 9.8 | 52.0 | 13,776 | 27.9 |
| Other votes | 10.7 | 9.3 | 55.0 | 7,512 | 15.2 |
Election results in Goulburn at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and One Nation.
The funny thing is this seat is named ”Goulburn” and every booth in the town of Goulburn voted Labor despite the seat itself being Liberal.
Labor gain if the swing is on. Falls before East Hills.
This seat is a combination of the Liberal voting north of Eden-Monaro and Hume which is staunchly Liberal voting. The state Liberals underperformed though I would believe it is due to the impact of the SFF running last time.
The result will depend on how the SFF and ONP voters will vote or swing. Both SFF and ONP overperformed in rural and regional seats in 2019. That was probably a one-off high and I sense a lot of that momentum has gone. ONP lost votes in regional areas at the federal election and SFF lost a state MP as Helen Dalton has since become an independent.
I would say the strength of the Libs also comes from the Southern Highlands part of which remains in the seat. Ideally Labor would want that removed it the seat extend further west towards Gundagai. The Big swing in 2015 was in part due to many National votes in the Western parts of the seat not wanting to vote for a Lib. Ursula Stephens positioned herself as a right wing Labor candidate
Don’t know who.the Labor candidate is? Does anyone?
Mick Q,
Labor candidate has been announced.
https://ozarab.media/michael-pilbrow-candidacy-for-goulburn/
Thanks
Where’s the excitement around this seat?
It’s not on a very big margin, and it seems like the Goulburn booths of Hume swung left federally as did the Southern Highlands in Whitlam. Some of this was via Penny Ackery (teal indie for Hume) and Greens. Yass was a very happy hunting ground for Labor in Eden Monaro.
On the other hand I can’t see the Southern Highlands deserting the NSW Liberals in that much of a hurry. Wendy Tuckerman is no Angus Taylor. The aforementioned Green and Teal votes can be mitigated with OPV.
John, I think Labor have picked a better candidate in agri-business consultant Michael Pilbrow. His credentials seem to be a good fit for this rural type of district, and probably better compared to Ursula Stevens who was the ALP candidate in the past 2 election cycles.
Having said that, Wendy Tuckerman will be able to achieve some sophomore surge factor in her favour, and she is seen as a less controversial/accident prone MP compared to Angus Taylor.
If Labor is to govern, then this is a must-win seat. Labor doesn’t have history on its side as it hasn’t won this seat nor its predecessors in decades.
Labor might be optimistic given the swings to Labor at the federal election in and around Hume and in Moss Vale (Whitlam). Angus Taylor copped a 5% 2PP swing in Hume but this followed a drop in both the Labor and Liberal primary vote.
I agree that Labor’s candidate this time has credentials more in tune with the local area and he isn’t some ex-politician.
This is.not a must win.seat labor can win govt and still not win here. Ursula is well intergated into the local and
Was a good candidate
Right 55 left 45 treating sff as
Rural ind slightly pro lib
So given 53.1 46.9 2pp the
Libs get no opv bonus This opv
Bonus goes to Labor if at all. The concern here is the big onp
Vote which would have been taken from the libs. Goulburn has a reputation of being loyal to the sitting mp . Will Wendy Tuckerman get a bonus for being elected.
With alp swing which may be blunted in country areas Labor should improve here. Assume say 3% .then this seat will go down the wire. Against Labor is the fact that they have not held a seat configured like this Goulburn since 1965.This contest will go down to the campaign and the perceived competence of the candidates. It looks to me that only the greens would be able to direct preferences ..uncertain seat
One interesting thing about this election is that two seats that are usually safe for the coalition in Goulbourn and Hunter are both now marginal and Labor targets whereas other traditional bellwether seats sit on deent margins for the Libs due to the 2011 landslide and the multiple elections it takes to recover back those margins. I think one of the reasons for these seats marginal TPP is also NSW election laws in only needing to put one party and ON and SFF polling well in these seats and the voters not bothering to preference other candidates.
Also Hunter has had its boundaries moved into more pro-labor territory from Cessnock.
Absolutely agree North East, this is one of the couple handful seats where OPV is good for ALP. Goulburn, Camden, Upper Hunter rural and rural fringey areas. Especially as PHON preferences which do actually have a second preference actually tend to scatter quite a bit
I’m not confident SFF will be fielding many lower house candidates in any case, Sue Gilroy of Upper Hunter already pulling out re Borsak affair.
@Daniel I think the implosion of SFF and their poor leadership leading to infighting and their MP’s leaving will help the coalition as they’ll most likely pick up those votes.
Hard to tell. Perversely if onp vote falls the liberals gain votes. Not sure what will happen with the sff fair bet they will be less.
This seat will be close.. the dynamics of preferences are confusing. Has Wendy Tuckerman.built a personal vote. What are the relative merits of the Alp.candidate .. will the alp state swing be dampened. This is genuinely uncertain.
Hard to call since the one and sff vote will determine the outcome. May buck the trend
there is not a lot oftalk abbout golbin so looks like a liberal hold does pilbrow live in the seat he has been involved in labor party foor a while and former president of yas branch and also involveed in the canbra branch
Yea most likely a liberal hold
maybi ursula stevins would have been a better candadate to run again
to tell here you would have to be on the ground in the Goulburn Electorate…. labor last hjeld this seat in 1965……. this will be close
With the reduced number of candidates running on the right, I think LIB will mop up some of these votes, coupled with a Sophomore Surge in this seat. The biggest impact to LIB at the last election was the voter exhaustion on the right. On top of that, with SFF vote expected to collapse, I think there is enough votes flowing back to LIB to make this a hold.
I would not be sure.. onp approx 10% sff 11%.. do some go back to the liberals.
Approx 70/30
@Mick, I think it would be more than likely that Wendy would get some of the ONP vote back, especially around Moss Vale and Crookwell. This election will be decided in Goulburn itself but those towns will give Tuckerman some margin back.
onp are recommending vote 1 for onp and no prefernce i heard stright from mark lathams mouth last nihgt. but usually its around 60/40. meaning 60/40 i where they ake votes from
Goulburn is a real wildcard at this point.
AE Forecasts – LAB 0.3%
Sports Bet – $1.75 LIB
TAB – $1.70 LIB
The real question from this is going to be how the ONP and Lib Dems Votes Break out, along with the expected loss in support for SFF. That is about 10,000 votes up for grabs there and I would imagine that it will probably split 1/3 each way, which would push LIB over 23,000 and make the gap too far for LAB to chase down.
i think it will be easy retain id say the reason for the close margin was exhausted preferences from 3 other right of centre parties without those the libs should get the majority of those back. i think sff will perform not as good at this election and they shouldnt do as well here
I’m tipping a toss-up. Goulburn is one of Labor’s targets. This will be in play if Labor’s PV increases and Liberal’s PV remains the same or decreases.
I wrote above that SFF and ON overperformed in regional areas in 2019 especially here. ON won’t be running here and so their voters may flock to SFF. It’s hard to say whether they will increase or decrease their PV. On the one hand, SFF has imploded and on the other hand, some voters are looking for an alternative to the major parties.
There’s some population increase in Goulburn and Yass with Canberrans moving in because of lower real estate prices and/or a tree-change. This may make Labor more competitive. By luck, Labor scored the top spot on the ballot paper.
@votante without One Nation and Liberal Democrats splitting the vote and their votes exhausting i think it will be lib retain with increased margin the only reason its “in play” is because the exhausted vote decreased the liberal primary
Chris Minns was in the seat today reported in the Sydney Morning Herald. I would say from the vibe of the article that Labor ‘are in with a shot’ but doesn’t necessary translate to their confident. The odds on sportsbet are tight and they wouldn’t be visiting the seat if their internal polling wasn’t suggesting the seat was in play.
Sky News reported polling suggested Labor would win this seat.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/polling-shows-likely-labor-victories-in-goulburn-and-leppington/video/eacafca4eca699f2f50dc494a0a4d17c
ABC has now called Goulburn a Liberal Retain
I noticed that in Goulburn proper there were swings TO the Liberals of between 0% and 7%. I’m not sure what happened there. This was enough to counter the big swings to Labor in the Southern Highlands and other patchy swings to Labor elsewhere.