Fairfield – NSW 2023

Things are about to kick-off here!! It has been reported from News Limited that Guy Zangari is attempting to abandon Fairfield to have a tilt at the LC or Cabramatta, to replace Nick Lalich. The reason for this is because Frank Carbone is seriously considering a run as an independent here, off the back of the success of Dai Le. This would also create room for Tania Mihailuk to move from Bankstown, given that it is very likely that she will lose preselection to Jihad Dib.

It’s all early speculation. There’s no formal confirmation on Nick Lalich’s retirement nor Frank Carbone’s contendership. After the Fowler preselection and electoral debacle, you’d think that Labor would preselect a candidate who is ethnically Vietnamese and/or fresh-faced and not from the Labor establishment to replace Nick Lalich in Cabramatta.

I wrote in the Cabramatta thread that if Frank Carbone were to run, he might ride off the back of Dai Le’s success but won’t score a 2PP result as high as Dai Le did. He doesn’t have her profile and has way less electioneering experience (Dai Le ran for the state seat of Cabramatta three times).

If Zangari abandoned Fairfield for Cabramatta. Then most likely Frank Cabone who lives in the Fairfield area would likely contest against the alp candidate. The result in Fowler would demonstrate a danger of a Labor loss there so the choice must be made carefully. The alp rank and file must chose the alp candidates in both seats. I cannot speak for the upper house but this is quite complicated

Does Guy Zangari live in Fairfield? If he does then Carbone wouldn’t be as much of a threat. Labor should be more worried about choosing the right candidate for Cabramatta once Lalich goes.

Maybe Kristina Keneally could return to state politics and contest Cabramatta. (I’m kidding.)

Carbone wont win here, he is better off in Cabramatta as Dai Le’s base primary vote from 2019 will transfer to him. Here there isn’t really any base support for him.

Labor hold, Carbone is best served to run in Cabramatta.

Dan he and Dai Le run Fairfield council together. The aftermath of the Tripodi machine is toxic to labor.
I think he does live here. Labors role is to have a rank and file ballot here and find a good candidate. Even though your reasoning is wrong you may have assessed correctly that Labor can hold especially if they get a swing and the opv bonus…… optional prefererential vote bonus

Unexpected news today from Guy Zangari who’s announced his retirement from politics – https://twitter.com/GuyZangariMP/status/1581798653726842881

How realistic is the prospect of both Fairfield and Cabramatta falling to Le-esque independents? I suppose it might depend on who Labor preselects.

I believe that Tania Mihailuk will run in Fairfield, moving from Bankstown, whilst Nick Lalich will vacate the seat of Cabramatta.

I’d be surprised if Tania Mihailuk is given the green light for Labor preselection here given how much she damaged the Labor brand with her allegations. I’m sure they’re plenty of ambitious Labor candidates vying for preselection here

I don’t know the local Fairfield alp except where it overlaps existing branches from the previous Bankstown.But firm promises have been made by nsw alp head office that rank and file ballots will occur. I have every confidence that Labor will pick a good candidate.

Mick – your faith in ALP head office is laudable. I know they’ll get this one right!
PS – did someone say Kristina Keneally…..

I am normally critical of head office.. but firm promises have been made.. they like I wish to seea Labor govt.. which means do things properly. Don’t risk the loss of a seat to and ind..yes kkk .saga taught us a lesson

Is it true Labor don’t have a candidate here yet? The election is less than two months away.

when will labor preselct a candadate hear reports Cris bowen will install David salibe who aparently is a former police officer he tried tochalinge the out going mp Guy zangari if this candadate is any good whiy is head ofice waiting so long plus desbite the backing of bowen this candadate could not win a preselection

whats happining in fairfield will labor ever anowse a candadate

@moderate if Kendall runs they might as well hand it to an independant

when will labor anowse a candadate here will they hold a preselection there is specualation bowen will install one of his local suporters here

The thought of an ex-premier coming back to recontest after losing a safe seat at an election a year ago is just weird.

I wrote in the Cabramatta thread about how Labor’s last-minute preselection in both Cabramatta and Fairfield actually benefits them because it gives the independent movement (allied to Dai Le) little time to put an effort in to against a controversial, parachuted Labor candidate. I’m not implying the candidate for Fairfield will be the next Kristina Keneally.

Prediction: ALP loss to independent. This seat will go along with Cabramatta.

With a swing to Labor a Labor loss is unlikely also Frank can only contest one seat if at all. The alp candidate will be a local

The Labor candidate in Cabramatta is also local but he’ll get decimated if Carbone runs.
Labor is stuffed in both seats because OPV cuts into Labor’s path and benefits independent candidates with high profile.
Labor can’t lazily rely on compulsory preferences like they did at the Federal election; Carbone would benefit either way if his first preference exhausts or he most likely gains some 2nd preferences from Libs and other independents

carbone seems more liberal he is not running against any liberals and is close to di le

It’s fine ALP loyalists. Mick Quinlivan is tipping a win in both Cabramatta and Fairfield.
What could possibly go wrong??
Maybe a water taxi to Scotland island to find a candidate for Fairfield!!

Strathman scoop, wouldn’t opv actually work in Labors favour. For fowler, keneally led on primary votes and dai le won thanks to liberal preferences.

Under opv, liberal preferences would flow at reduced ratebe to any conservative leaning independent, just like weak flows of labor preferences to left leaning teal independents.

The only way opv would benefit such an independent if they were to lead on primary vote, which seems unlikely given no high profile figures have announced their intention to run.

You can’t get a more high profile independent than Dai Le in this part of Sydney. With her being gone and OPV benefitting whoever leads on primaries, which tends to be the major parties in such seats, I don’t see anything but a Labor victory. The closet thing to her is Frank Carbone but I doubt he would do as well for the above reasons.

Carbone significantly outpolled Le in local council elections – he was clearly the senior figure in their alliance. But he’s indicating he’ll run for Cabramatta, so you’re correct that whoever their party runs here will be lower profile.

Looking at Fairfield councillors in more detail, there are two who I see as having a slight edge in terms of name recognition, Andrew Rohan and Charbel ‘Charlie’ Saliba. Rohan was a former Liberal MP for Smithfield but was defeated contesting the revised seat of Prospect in 2015, whilst Saliba was an unsuccessful Liberal candidate for Fairfield in 2011 and 2015.

Carbone has always been more popular than Dai Le in this patch of Sydney because he carries more of the would-be Labor voters, in a naturally Labor leaning community. Dai is a Lib, and will face a tough task convincing voters otherwise next federal cycle.

There’s a lot of hyberbole around Le and the “landslide” win as was written in the Tele yesterday. She only won by around 2% let’s not forget, so if Labor pick a candidate 1) by due process and 2) who is local, then under an OPV system they should be fairly confident of beating any candidate who is not Frank Carbone himself – even so, Frank would not be a lock if there is a broad groundswell mood to change the government which looks likely.

Between Fairfield and Cabramatta, I think only Cabramatta is at risk of falling for Labor, but if they follow conditions (1) and (2) above they’re doing all they can to make it hard for Carbone. A -1 in their numbers is a huge headache, and they’d need to come to the table to get CArbone’s support in a hung parliament.

@Darren. im sure the Libs were thinking the same thing. fortunately you only need to win by one vote

carbone is not labor he has alind with liberals including being a faverite of Ray hadley and sky news since being defeated in 2016 he has alind with Di le and the liberals people triying to suggest suporting each other and carbone is some how labor makes litle sence he is backing perottit and federal libs and clearly has not beliefs other then power

im not from the fairfield aria butisnt carbone friends with cris hayes the former labor mp and tu le now that the branch members voted against her suddinlydi les friend Carbone basickly runs as a independent to help perrottit form government im suprised the cumberlind x mayor is not running against julia finn then again a lot of local labor cowncils in fairfield and canada bay when dumped went to libs

When was Carbone defeated in 2016? Carbone isn’t Liberal or Labor, he’s a third thing.

The point I made is Frank cannot run in both seats. So the worse case scenario is Labor loses one. I also suggested with a swing to Labor even with Frank standing Labor was likely to retain. Opv makes it difficult for Mr Cabone to win… he needs liberal party preferences which will have a high exhaustion rate. Heard they invited John b to stand … put a crook back into party.. catchy slogan..

Ben I think Aaron meant to say Frank Carbone defected from Labor and formed his own independent brand, similar to Paul Garrard from parramatta who formed our local community.

My views are similar to Dan M’s and Yoh An’s on preferencing. I sense Labor will come first on primary votes, like they did in Fowler at the federal election. The difference is that Dai Le won with strong Liberal, and to some extent, UAP preferences. State Labor has an advantage with OPV as the Independent may not get as many preferences as they would’ve federally.

Frank Carbone may give Labor a scare like Dai Le did in 2011. There are some differences between Frank Carbone in 2023 and Dai Le in 2022. The most notable difference is the absence of Kristina Keneally. Another difference is that Dai Le has Vietnamese heritage and has more electioneering experience.

You do also have to consider that Carbone is the one who won the mayoral election in a landslide, and generally has polled more in council elections than Le – while they are allied, there was a Carbone ticket and a Le ticket in each ward in 2021 and Carbone’s did much better.

ben i have to disagree yyes they ran seperate tickets but charble saliba who ran on one of carbones tickets is also a x lib along with le yes carbone ran as mayor but theis carbone and le very simelar on policy or just a alience to stop labor the our local community group also seems a anti labor group suprised they arnt runing against finn

when will labor preselect sombody here carbone was defeated in labor mayor race in 2016 buy Dell benit who is partner of out going mp cabramater nick lalich

What are you disagreeing with Aaron? Carbone polled 29% in 2016 compared to Le’s 16.95%.

And he was not defeated by Del Bennett, he won that election!

Yes, Carbone and Le are allied, and some of the group are ex-Libs. Others like Carbone are ex-Labor.

OLC has definitely filled the role as the main right-wing party in Cumberland or Parramatta but unlike Carbone haven’t demonstrated much popularity. They’ve mostly just filled the gap from the Liberal Party’s absence.

Aaron, did you mean to say that Bennett defeated Carbone for Labor preselection at that council election? Because that would make sense that he left the Labor Party just after losing preselection and decided to run on his own independent ticket.

yes i ment benit defeateated carbone for labor candadate he won the mayors race as an independent olk seem mostly x labor cowncilors they also took over canada bay they have not run chrystiou in granvill yet desbig deal olk seem clos to the liberals

who will get fairfield preselection for labor aparently bowen is pushing his allie David saliba the australian is claiming its a outrage but hayes wanted to install tu le also with out a preselection is Hayes friends with Carbone he waited until tu le was defeated desbite a rank and file vote which fairfield wont get and then claimed labor wernt listening to the community when there members voted plushis rival lalich is retiring so whiy did he not run against him

buyut the thing i dont get about Carbone is he was part of tripodi fairfield machine close to bowen and labor foor years then when heloosis preselection he then claims labor have never been good for fairfield if he thought that whiy was he a member for years

Aaron- that’s the same with someone like Julia Gould, Labor’s candidate for Drummoyne. Was extremely close to former Labor member and current Canada Bay Mayor, Angelo Tsirekas.
She was even the Deputy Mayor during the last term, and was happy to continue supporting his endorsement until Nanva and Ferguson both wanted to go in a different direction after the corruption allegations. So when all the criticisms about the Liberal candidate being close to John Sidoti come up, it is a bit disingenuous when the Labor candidate herself was also even more embedded with decision making under an ICAC-investigated mayor.

Carbone is a different story for a lot of reasons. Both Tripodi and Carbone are the only reason for branches existing as long as they did in the Fairfield/Cabramatta/Fowler stratosphere. The bottom fell out after Tripodi resigned, they went with Zangari instead of Saliba and Dracula instead of Carbone.
Look at the recent Cabramatta preselection, the numbers were abysmal and they were lucky to crack just around 50-60 electors.

Much has been made of the neglect of the Vietnamese and South East Asian community by the Labor party but the real story is the complete exodus of large numbers of Italian members of the Labor branches in the area and to an extent Assyrian members (who only remain because of Bowen and Khoshaba).
Bowen himself is also vulnerable in McMahon, much like Clare (is terrible with numbers and Mihailuk leaving will expose that more- she literally padded the branches for both Clare and Zangari, and got completely screwed over for the googly eyed Mayor of C-B) and Burke (doesn’t really attend branch meetings).
Bowen’s problem is his over reliance on the Assyrian community, and movement of Italians, Indians and Filipinos into the middle class.
Libs are unpopular now but that resolves itself once they start preselecting more ethnically diverse candidates and Labor’s government tenure extends.
The ALP always manages to 180 its own popularity eventually: Keating, Rudd, Iemma

Tania Mihailuk ran the local alp via corruption of the local branches. And bypassing those branches who did not support her . The role of the greater Bankstown alp is to rebuild and keep those alp members were genuine members in the branches she controlled.

i think asfour controleda lot of branches in bankstown more then mihayliuk isnt she close to lalick and zangari is nenos koshaba still close to bowen and involved in politics he lost his cowncil seat last election and does not seem interested in re joining state parliamentthe out going fairfield mp had 12 years and did not achieve much

Does koshaba still close to bowen and ccontrol fairfield labor branches nenos lost his cowncil spot last election and does not seem interested in re joinigng politics zangari seems to have achieved little in his corear in parliament