Epping – NSW 2023

1. Will be interesting to see if Dominic Perrottet switches seats once again. He might get nervous with the massive swings in the area in the federal election though I don’t think it would really threaten his hold of the seat since he has the profile as Lib leader and Premier and the fact that much of the swing came from Chinese Australian voters angry at the federal govt which won’t necessarily flow through to the state govt especially since the NSW Libs are nowhere near as hawkish regarding China as the federal Libs.

2. Perrottet’s old seat of Castle Hill is vacant. (I believe Ray Williams is contesting Kellyville, and David Elliott is retiring). I’d be amazed if it happened though. If the Libs are conceding Epping, they’re conceding the whole election.

3. I believe Perrottet lives in Beecroft which falls within Epping district so he would be inclined to recontest his home district.

4. He didn’t originally want to run for this seat. This was the compromise that was worked out when Ray Williams refused to give up his Castle Hill seat and he didn’t want to run in Hawkesbury again after Ray Williams forced him out of his original Castle Hill seat. Since he’s leader now he essentially has absolute authority in what seat he wants

5. Perrottet has never held a seat for more than a single term since he’s switched seats every single election. I wonder if this election he does the same.

6. I argued very strongly in my suggestion to the redistribution panel that Epping be realigned east-west. Having Cherrybrook and Epping in the same district was absolutely nonsensical.

   Map of my suggested Epping:
   https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yQsVfdSHBSB3x7uwytw0_Hvg5Xvk7ALV/view?usp=sharing

   As you can see, the panel was evidently convinced.

   It will be interesting to see what happens here. I suspect the Liberal vote in the western half of the new Epping is inflated further due to Geoff Lee’s personal vote. My rough estimate of the 2PP in this district based on federal results (I simply aggregated all the federal polling places within Epping district’s boundary) is 0.5% for the Liberals.

   My suggestion also included a new seat to the north (named “Pennant Hills”), and on those boundaries it would have made a lot of sense for Perrottet to transfer there. Safe and includes both Beecroft (where he currently lives) and West Pennant Hills (where he grew up):

   https://drive.google.com/file/d/18PVFLKqSqLJLI_DdjgPnuFozFt1Trocd/view?usp=sharing

7. GIVE HIM a teal theat seat. Eg Manly

8. Nicholas.. is it really only a 0.5% liberal margin in Epping… wow

9. @Mick and Nicholas, I believe that the postals were really unfavourable for the Libs in the federal election results for the area especially overlapping areas with Bennelong. Thus, it’s possible that if we map the federal results to the state boundaries, the Lib margin would be even narrower.

10. Looked at maps of polling places and results Bennelong and Parramatta. And the results appeared to line ball.. only rough.. which shows what is possible remember too Parramatta had a much dampened swing to Labor. Also I would suggest that the liberals in nsw will not pick up any seats and they are at an earlier point of the downward spiral Labor suffered 2011

11. Labors downward spiral started with a 13% negative swing in lakemba.. the Ryde and Penrith swings were over 20% this was from 2008 onwards cumulating in 2011 election.with about 16% across the state.. Dom and his mates are on their way

12. I don’t equate federal election results with state election results but if they’re replicated, then yes, Dominic would be gone because there were swings of at least 10% to federal Labor in Carlingford (Parramatta) and Epping (Bennelong).

    Perrottet held Hawkesbury from 2015-2019 and it’s not even one of Epping’s neighbours. The term before that, he held Castle Hill. He’s probably the only MP who has held 3 seats in 3 terms (all of them non-abolished and safe).

13. I would expect him to hold if he were the candidate here. But the building consensus here I’d on federal figures this seat would be line ball. But results show what is indeed possible.

14. He might try to transfer back to Castle Hill now that Ray Williams has run off to Kellyville. That would leave Geoff Lee free to contest Epping where he would have the personal vote around Carlingford and Dundas.

15. If Mr Lee vacated Parramatta it would be a very bad look and improve Labor ‘ s chances there. In a perverse world could the libs lose both seats,

16. There’s no vacancy in that area. Ray Williams isn’t running off to Kellyville, that is his seat now. There’s more of the old Castle Hill in the new Kellyville than in the new Castle Hill. And the new Castle Hill isn’t vacant because David Elliott’s seat of Baulkham Hills has been abolished.

17. Couple of other things to take into considerations:

    1. Ray Williams won’t leave Castle Hill because his friendly branches are all in Castle Hill now. He has that seat lock and key. He wouldn’t go back to Hawkesbury because all the branches up top are very hostile towards him.
    2. David Elliott won’t make a tilt at Parramatta until the Federal Election Cycle looks favourable to the Coalition. To be honest, if he ran in 2019, I think he would have gone very close to winning it.
    3. Dom won’t leave Epping as his branches are in Epping (similar to Ray Williams having his branches in Castle Hill). On top of that, I think the situation between federal and state is very different and I can’t see it being an issue.

18. Ray Williams’ base of support is in Rouse Hill. Rouse Hill was in Hawkesbury prior to 2015, then it was transferred to Castle Hill, and now to Kellyville. It makes complete sense that Williams would contest Kellyville in 2023.

19. Wasn5

20. Wasn’t there a rumour that Elliott was retiring from state parliament?

21. Perrottet might be sweating a bit because of the federal election results in the Epping and Carlingford and also the likely statewide swing to Labor this election. The LNP have a few months to redeem themselves. I still think that he would hold the seat.

    Methinks that he’s been unpopular amongst the branches (and hence the seat-hopping) but popular in his party room and inner circles. That’s how he became the Treasurer and then the Premier.

22. A question which seats..would Labor have no chance of winning? Cannot say that for Kiama Monaro or Upper Hunter

23. I don’t know if Perrottet actually has any branches here. He only contested here as a compromise because he didn’t want to contest Hawkesbury again (his official reason being the long commute time to his home in Beecroft) and then failed to switch back to Castle Hill. The MP in this seat had to transfer to the upper house to let Perrottet in.

24. I’m inclined to call this a Liberal retain, as the Cherrybrook, Pennant Hills and Beecroft areas were still won by the liberals federally (around 55-70% TPP). Epping and Eastwood did swing substantially to Labor, however I’m inclined to base that on a dislike of the federal government’s stance on China by many Chinese residents. Additionally, Perrottet is nowhere near as unpopular as Morrison was.

25. Cherrybrook isn’t in the seat anymore. It now has Carlingford and Dundas and other areas that were previously in Paramatta and also swung very strongly to Labor.

26. In line with what Dan mentioned, Epping is now more marginal with the removal of Cherrybrook and addition of Carlingford/Dundas. But also agree with D Cook that Perrottet comes off as a more moderate figure who may be able to gather more support from those of Asian background, thus minimising the overall swing to Labor.

    I probably see a modest swing about 5% or so at the upcoming election, thus making Epping a marginal seat.

27. Thanks Dan M for the correction, and thanks to the NSWEC for having some sense.
    Even with Carlingford and Dundas, I wouldn’t be concerned about the potential for Dom to lose his seat. There will be swings, possibly enough to make it marginal, but not enough to unseat him. When it comes to leaders possibly losing their own seats, I’d be far more concerned for Chris Minns, who sits on a 0.1% margin.
    If the coalition loses overall (which I find to be quite likely, given the polls and the number of scandals), the question then remains, what will Dom do?

28. There is reason to believe that the 10.9% margin here is inflated. The southwest of the new Epping district was Geoff Lee’s home turf, where he had a huge personal vote.

    Epping is approximately LIB 0.5% based on the 2022 federal election results.

    Given this, and that it is expected that there will be a general swing (of some magnitude) to Labor, and the circumstances that led to Labor’s underperformance in Kogarah in 2019, I would go so far as to say that both leaders are at roughly equal risk of losing their seats – unlikely, but not insignificant.

29. Constituently what happens if both leaders lose their seats. Who becomes premier? Or the Premier’s party is reelected but they lose their seat (Unlikely but possible) I can give you many scenario’s where the Liberals hold up fine everywhere else but do poorly in North & Northwest Sydney,

    In British Columbia, in 2013, Premier Christy Clark lost her seat while retaining government so a member of her party resigned and she contested (and won) the by-election, If Perrottet losses his seat but they main in government (Probably minority) does he contest a seat, or is this taboo territory in Australian politics and this would be seen as parachuting/power grab? I know Zak Kirkup as opposition leader in WA considered moving to Nedlands if Marmion held his seat (Which Labor won Nedlands)

    I think if the premier losses his seat, then Matt Kean takes over as this probably means the Libs did poorly in North/Northwest Sydney. Elliot wouldn’t be leader as his policies (Right-wing of the Liberal party) would not win back potential losses in 2026 or 2027.

    If Nicholas is right that this is notional 0.5% based on Federal results then I expect the premier also due to his profile, to retain the seat because why would the Libs do even worse than the federal election? Perrottet is from the Dutton end of the spectrum, but he is no Tony Abbott and has done a good job uniting the moderates and the conservatives within the party, something Turnbull nor Abbott could do federally.

30. I’d assume that the outgoing premier would remain as a caretaker until a leadership election of the governing party.
    The federal constitution allows for the prime minister (or a cabinet minister) to hold office without a seat in either house, so long as they obtain a seat within 3 months. Don’t know how it works at the state level.

31. Canada has a history of PMs losing their seat while retaining government, and the solution was the same as in that BC case – someone resigned their seat and opened the path for them to return.

    But I don’t know of any history of a party losing its leader but winning the election. Stanley Bruce, John Howard, Campbell Newman all lost their seats but also lost government.

    I suspect if this happened in Australia it would depend on the position of the leader but unless they were exceedingly successful I think it’s more likely the party would pick a new premier and move on.

32. Predicting Liberal hold.

    There won’t be swings as big as those in Parramatta and Bennelong at the federal election. Dominic isn’t as unpopular as Scomo.

33. For an MP to resign shortly after an election to allow another MP who lost their seat to return to parliament is so pathetic and disrespectful on so many levels that it’s actually kind of hilarious.

34. On Federal election votes would be alp held..just.i expect the premier to retain. But when the
    Liberals lose will there be a by-election ..this is similar to Cook
    (Morrison).
    The leader after losing should go but they dare not force a byelection

35. There’s no Liberal candidate for this seat yet on the register of candidates, although Perrottet hasn’t contested preselection for any other seats either. He could have run for preselection in Castle Hill given Williams is moving to Kellyville and Elliott is retiring.

36. I did an estimate of this seat on federal results with 2PP, although as it is split across 4 electorates the margin of error would be quite significant:
    Primary:
    LIB: 42.1%
    ALP: 36.2%
    GRN: 11.7%
    OTH: 10.0%

    2PP: LIB 0.6% vs ALP
    If I was a Liberal leader I wouldn’t really want to risk it.

37. On these boundaries the Liberals would have won by around 6.4% in 2007 – the last election which Labor won in NSW, while on the 2015 and 2019 boundaries the Liberals won by around 10.2%. These boundaries make Perrottet quite vulnerable although he should still win if he runs here. However Liberal leaders generally hold much safer seats than this, a 10.2% margin in 2007 and a 12.4% margin in 2019 is well below the margin of the previous 3 Liberal leaders, the new boundaries don’t help either.

38. Taking into account the Federal may 22 and state march 2023 figures nominate the seats
    The liberals and nats are certain of retaining I will start
    Cronulla Edgecliffe Tamworth
    Castle Hill…….

39. I defy anyone to find a dozen more

40. This or Ryde is the most at-risk Liberal seat in Northern Sydney. In Ryde the Liberal incumbent is retiring but they selected a high profile candidate who has been campaigning heavily on the ground for over a month, while Labor has no candidate in Ryde. Neither major party has selected a candidate for Epping and there’s been no campaign in Epping at all, however the Liberals have the benefit of incumbency if Perrottet does run for re-election here. I don’t think Dominic Perrottet is too active locally, but given his profile he should hold on if he re-contests this seat. Liberals and Labor don’t seem to be taking this seat too seriously though.

41. @Ben you’ve inspired me to continue me round the rack of electorates. I had this and a couple others lined up. On the contrary, Dominic Perrottet is the candidate here. Looks have a quick look:

    I currently have the following candidates running:
    LIB – Dominic Perrottet (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)

    Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: ALP, GRN
    Possibly SAP, AJP and would expect an IND

    Loosing Cherrybrook (Hornsby) hurts the margin here (LIB Primary 56-64% Primary, and the two small sized booths at the Retirement villages with 67 & 79%!! Primary) and also loosing West Pennant Hills (Castle hill) booths with 57 & 59% primary. That is essentially what Ben Raue called the ‘North’ for the results of this seat last time. ‘Central’ and ‘South’ were still strong with primaries between 45 and 55% primary. However, the areas added are stronger LIB than Cherrybrook, for example, with low-mid 60% primary at Oatlands and North Rocks. Even with a swing against LIB, this would be counter-acted by Dom being Premier and stronger LIB areas added, even if Epping has a small Labor swing. As others pointed out in various comments (eg Willoughby) the effect of the ethnic vote shouldn’t be too hard on the State LIBS as opposed to their view on the Fed LIBS.

    2022 Prediction: Lib Retain

    (OK as a cavaet, sure, a candidate being registered for an electorate doesn’t mean it’s locked in for nomination, but honestly, that talk about Dom moving really was conjecture. That move would look terrible for a Premier, it just wouldn’t happen.)

42. @Politics_Obsessed Much of the new area transfered to Epping is from the old Parramatta where Geoff Lee had a huge personal vote that won’t carry over to Perrottet. Those booths basically still have the same results as in the 2011 landslide so we can expect some vicious swings in that area. This new area is also not normally as strong for the Libs as Cherrybrook as seen in the federal results over the past elections. Add to that a likely general swing to Labor and we should see the margin in this seat cut significantly. That being said, it should not lead to Perrottet actually losing his seat since he might get a small premier boost to slightly offset the swing and the state Libs aren’t nearly as unpopular as the federal Libs among Chinese voters so the swing won’t be as strong as federally. I’d predict a Lib hold with a margin of between 2 and 5% here.

43. I don’t think it would be that low, on these boundaries the Liberals won by 6.4% in 2011.

44. Liberal hold with a small swing to Dominic Perrottet like there was to Mathew Guy in his electorate.

45. If this was a contest based on
    Federal results Dom.would be gone
    However.he will.survive probably a dampened swing
    But the problem occurs. At. The subsequent. By-election when he retires

46. @Mick Quinlivan By-elections swing against the incumbent government so as long as he waits out a bit until the honeymoon period is over in your scenario then the Libs will retain this seat in a byelection. Besides, I doubt he has much of a personal vote in this electorate due to the circumstances in which he became the MP for Epping so it’s not like Labor can benefit from a loss of personal vote.

47. Dan good point but a by-election also reflects the climate at the time especially if a promise has been made to serve out the full term

48. @Dan M, valid points about the personal vote being included in those booths. I should have extrapolated my point further, in that, yes, while those votes are inflated high including the personal vote for a different MP, even with that and a swing to ALP, that’s a significant buffer to keep Dom safe. Nevertheless, will be interesting to see how much of a drop in primary vote eventuates there. But with no other candidates yet announced in the area, it’ll be hard to make inroads against Dom. I’m surprised that no Indy with links to OLC or Lorraine Wearne has arisen, due to their respective results and recognition in the recent 2021 Local Govt Elections (looking at Epping and North Rocks wards).

49. Well…..

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-12/dominic-perrottet-apologises-for-wearing-nazi-costume-to-21st/101849280

    I doubt this is really going to change anything about his chances here or the election in general but the timing of this is pretty interesting especially since he brought this up himself.

50. I read that there were rumours of photos of the event and could be shown and so he made a statement about it, perhaps before it could get leaked. I don’t think his fancy dress choice at his 21st bday would be a huge deal-breaker or a pivotal election issue.

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