LIB 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Wendy Lindsay, since 2019.
Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers south-western parts of the City of Canterbury-Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra, Condell Park and parts of Bass Hill and Yagoona.
Redistribution
East Hills expanded slightly on the northern edge, taking in more of Bass Hill and Yagoona from Bankstown. This change reduced the Liberal margin from 0.5% to 0.1%.
History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1953 to 2011, with only four people holding the seat during this period.
The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.
Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.
Alan Ashton won East Hills in 1999, and was re-elected in 2003 and 2007.
In 2011, Ashton was narrowly defeated by Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes.
There was a large swing to Labor in New South Wales in 2015, but Brookes gained a tiny swing to hold on despite his slim margin.
Brookes resigned from the Liberal Party in 2016 after his campaign manager was charged with electoral offences, but rejoined the party in 2017.
Brookes retired in 2019, and Liberal candidate Wendy Lindsay narrowly retained the seat.
Assessment
East Hills is a very marginal seat, but this was also the case at the 2015 and 2019 elections, yet the seat barely moved. Lindsay should benefit from incumbency, but this remains a crucial seat for Labor to win.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Wendy Lindsay | Liberal | 19,963 | 41.9 | -2.3 | 41.6 |
| Cameron Murphy | Labor | 19,152 | 40.2 | -1.8 | 40.7 |
| Suzan Virago | Greens | 2,298 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 4.9 |
| Owen Butt | Christian Democrats | 2,159 | 4.5 | -0.3 | 4.3 |
| Lisa Maddock | Keep Sydney Open | 1,773 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.5 |
| Chris Brogan | Independent | 1,346 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.7 |
| Heather Barnes | Animal Justice | 932 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.9 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 2,292 | 4.6 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Wendy Lindsay | Liberal | 21,646 | 50.5 | +0.1 | 50.1 |
| Cameron Murphy | Labor | 21,217 | 49.5 | -0.1 | 49.9 |
Booths in East Hills have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in southern parts of the seat, with 51.7% in the south-east and 55.3% in the south-west.
Labor won 55.8% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 51.7 | 13,628 | 27.2 |
| South-West | 55.3 | 9,211 | 18.4 |
| North | 44.2 | 8,350 | 16.7 |
| Pre-poll | 48.6 | 11,069 | 22.1 |
| Other votes | 49.4 | 7,824 | 15.6 |
Election results in East Hills at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
East Hills is in a really tough position in terms of redistribution. It’s natural boundary is essentially the Georges River and I doubt that NSW EC would want the seat jumping it. I also doubt that it would redistribute towards Punchbowl because that would mean destroying Bankstown as a seat altogether.
It is more likely that they would use the Hume Highway as a boundary going forward for East Hills, if further redistributions are required, which would mean taking Lansdowne all the way to the Georges River.
So far, there has been minimal activity in the area, from my semi-regular visits to Padstow/Revesby., in terms of corflutes or streets stalls.
Also some trivia, Name a seat in Australian history that has swung to the same party for 5 elections in a row (It will be if it happens next year) I don’t think it will happen because it simply has never happend before. You can’t get buck the statewide trend 3 times in a row in a swingy seat like this.
Daniel
Melbourne Federally, 1901 – 1913.
I have found one that swung the same way 7 times in a row, Mawson SA, 1997-present.
Yes Mawson is swinging based on the personal vote for the sitting alp mp. If you add the total vote swing I think in excess of 30% in the last 2 elections I think the swing was about 17%. He even won the booths on Kangaroo island
Labor’s big problem with this seat now is that every branch following the Georges River are solid-size branches and are recording very close to 50% Liberal on Primary Vote. On top of that, they are becoming more and more competitive within the centre of Padstow and Revesby.
For Labor to win, they need to really run their number up for Condell Park and north, towards Bankstown, where they will get more traction.
The only question I would have is the impact of the redistributed Booth in Yagoona, which was previously in Bankstown. Given that Georges Hall was 42:42 on Primary Vote, would there be a correction on the Yagoona Both, in line with Georges Hall?
Given all circumstances.. Tania mihailuk no longer suppressing the vote. The swing to Labor and the reversal of the opv bonus to the liberals this opv bonus will now probably go to labor
Now with a 6% swing washing through the alp could well outpoll the liberals on primary votes. This would mean Labor benefits from opv now. I would be hopeful of an alp win here
The polling booth at Bankstown senior citizens centre covered the electorates of East Hills Lakemba and Bankstown she concentrated on maximising her vote in.Bankstown.at the expense. Of the votes for the other alp. Candidates. This cost Labor votes in East Hills and given the margin it could have cost Labor the seat
As she is gone this suppression of votes in East Hills by our own side will be eliminated
Should read prepoll booth.at…..
LP had a swing towards them in every booth that Wendy shares with Coleman except one (East Hills High which can be written off as an anomaly with booth changing locations). Wendy has a strong chance at retention even with the distribution because of that. Also, Tania’s mark on the redistributed Yagoona area will see a marked move away from Labor in my opinion, be it to independents the Libs or others.
Agree with you Assistant Minister, East Hills is a seat that is trending away from Labor so can still be retained by the Liberals as they have a strong incumbent (Wendy Lindsay who is considered scandal free).
I think NSW Labor faces a similar issue to the Coalition in Victoria, that is the incumbent government is generally doing well in terms of service delivery. This makes it hard for the opposition to convince the public to switch sides, even though the NSW Coalition has suffered a number of scandals recently.
@ Yoh An NSW Labor hasn’t doing particularly well ever since Albanese was elected but they are not suffering as many problems as the Vic Coalition who look like they’re on the verge on collapse even with such a divisive premier as Dan Andrews. In terms of East Hills, if the election is close or the swing to Labor isn’t too large then I can see the Libs retaining this seat on the back of the demographic and voting pattern trends here. If the swing to Labor is significant, the state wide swing would cancel out the pro-Lib trend here and deliver the seat to Labor
Would be hopeful.of alp win
2023 is very different to 2019
and even.on those figures.it was virtually. Line ball.on.the
New boundaries..so you only needed a very small shift to Labor for a win.There will be a swing to.labor in.nsw. I think.of
6% plus
I do.not see how the liberals could retain.this seat
Re Tania’s suppression of the
Alp vote in the adjoining seat
Of East Hills. As she attempted to maximise her vote. At the expense of other alp candidates this occurred also
In the condell park area..alp vote over condell park booths
Averaged 55% at federal for Blax the alp vote Was 3 to 4% higher… post her the alp vote should go up in condell park too
This means extra alp votes here
This increases my confidence of an alp win
Mick – you’ve been confident of an East Hills ALP win since 2015. Cool your jets fell!!
Thanks mate .last time my guesses were more hopeful wishes.now with a 6% uneven swing to Labor washing through
My guesses are much more than hope.. I did not consider just how much Tania was hurting the alp vote in East Hills now she is gone and in a virtually line ball seat and a very
United Alp.i am increasingly certain ..look at the figures for Bankstown prepoll booth for
Both East Hills and Bankstown
Or pull up Jason Clare’s federal figures there even in 2019 you will see what I mean
Mick has *almost* been right since 2015. Predicting a win when the result is within 1% is hardly discrediting. And it is a fallacy to suggest he is therefore wrong to be confident this time.
Ok thanks for the constructive feedback Nicholas. I will modify my post and will happily indicate that Mick has been very nearly, but not quite correct, since 2015. Is that better??
I’m just not sure what point you’re making.
Mick Q has been very hopeful in the past. When listing a group of Liberal safe seats he said they were all in play and ‘marginal’ (despite then havings swings to the Libs, with 10%+ margins) EXCEPT for Bega, where he said it wouldn’t go Labor.
Source to above: https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/nsw2019/kiama2019
mick Quinlivan March 25, 2019 at 9:05 pm
“just the cream and ice cream thanks
all these seats have a dynamic of being competitive…. all except Bega have been won by Labor in the time prior to the 2011 disaster … Bega voted 54% in 2016 as part of Eden Monaro”
This seat will be won by Wendy I anticipate. Her challenger the parachute candidate from the Shire is uninspiring to say the least!
Probably agree, although I reckon it will be another nail biter contest (sub 1% margin). I think Wendy will have a small sophomore surge factor as a popular incumbent recontesting her seat (3-4%), but that will likely be cancelled out by the general swing to Labor state-wide (current polls show a 52-53% 2PP lead for the ALP, which suggests a swing of 4-5% from the last election).
Then again, some commentators like Hawkeye suggested that there is a larger MOE (margin of error) for many of these polls, given NSW uses OPV so the current polling may be indicative of a 50-50 result only.
If the current ALP lead widens into the new year, then Wendy will no longer be favoured to retain the seat and it would become a likely Labor gain.
Labors position is now better than because of 3 factors. The anticipated swing which will reverse the opv bonus from the libs to Labor. The lack of the Tania effect which suppressed the alp vote by at least 200 to 300 and the boundary changes which leave a 0.1% margin.. I am increasingly confident of an alp win
The opv effect last time meant that there was a primary vote gap for the libs of 2% because of opv the alp could not get enough preferences to catch up.
The polls are suggesting a swing to Labor in excess of 4% this means Labor have the primary vote lead now the libs need to catch up given the electorate make up of the remaining preference pool they will either exhaust or favour Labor. The 2019 result repeated with this change would result in a alp win .
Couple of issues Mick:
1. Massive demographic movements to Libs over past 4 years.
2. Wendy Lindsay gets a significant sophomore surge.
3. ALP have selected low key Sutherland shire candidate.
I’ll take the same bet from you I took in 2019. Libs hold this with 2/3% improvement.
Moderate, I agree with your 3 points. But in terms of any swing to Liberals, I don’t think it will happen. More like a status quo result with maybe a swing 1% at max in their favour.
Even the federal seat of Banks (which I believe overlaps with East Hills in its entirety) actually saw a swing of 2-3% against the Liberals even with the favorable demographics and a popular incumbent David Coleman. I believe the state election 2023 will be similar to the federal result with a significant (3-4%) swing to Labor thus cancelling out the factors that are advantageous for the Liberals.
Although I checked again and Labor’s candidate for Banks federally had a higher profile, so you may be right Moderate that East Hills will record a swing of 2-3% in favour of the Liberals.
After election I reckon approx 52.5/47.5 difference.
I don’t understand why people say Wendy Lindsay and David Coleman are popular local members. Coleman took an unexplained 18 month personal leave where he didn’t represent his local consitutents.
Wendy hasn’t done anything. Go onto any local facebook page and all the comments you see about her are how you can never get in touch with her and she wont do anything even if you did. Maybe it is the case for every local member, but surely you can’t say she is popular.
Did you just call the Federal incumbent that has won a seat, previously only ever Labor, 4x in a row unpopular??? LMFAO. Not to mention that Coleman defied national trends and retained his seat in an election where moderate Coalition MPs, particularly those in metropolitan areas lost in record numbers.
Yep Tom – David Coleman incredibly unpopular. Putting aside 4 election wins in a row – as a knight without arms and legs once famously said – “let’s call it a draw”.
Seriously???
Wow. I have to agree with Moderate that Mr Coleman is electorally popular However I suspect he may retire for personal reasons at the next election.
Can’t wait to prove the likes of Moderate wrong here.
Yes this seat isn’t safe Labor anymore, it is a marginal seat. But Cameron Murphy was a bad candidate for Labor, and I will be proven right by this because Labor will improve in the absence of Cameron Murphy. They are running a woman this time, and she is a much better candidate. Labor will win. This is a bellwether seat. and Labor will win government.
Labor will lose this when they lose gov.
East Hills on new boundaries has a pro liberal majority of 0.1%. With the general nsw swing of 6 to 7% even if dampened.. there is a fair bet that Labor will outpoll the liberals on primary votes. Also Tania Mihailuk in seeking votes for herself only at the expense of other alp candidates especially so in Bankstown prepoll has suppressed the alp vote in East Hills this suppression is now gone with her leaving the alp. This is by itself worth an extra 300 to 500 votes to Labor. These 2 factors will ensure an alp win.
seems supriseing his faction pushed foor merphy to get upper house spot might explain his invizable campaign at least the new labor candadate is notcausing anyproblims so labor should gget a increased vote
Chris Brogan independent who contested in 2019 is running again.
is kylie wilkinson labor candadate doingm uch campaigning here she has a low profile
doany body tthink labor can win this seat minns has not campaigned hear much
Do we think labor can win east hills minns has not campaigned hear a lot
if they cant win here they got problems
Labor have an excellent chance here.
@mick what’s your view on Labor chances in perrotets electorate? Better then average?
is kylie wilkinson a well known candadate the liberal mp Wendey lindsay is seen as a hard working mp and worked in comunity radio as station manager and did a lot of volintier work plus performs in a music groupWilkinson is backed buy labors soft left but apart from being involved in local sport does not appear to be doing much this may bewhiy former candadate and upper house candadate Cameron murphy who lives localy seems to be campaigning for her a lot he has been quiet this ilection
how is wilkinson as a canddate she is involved in local sport and backed buy soft left but compaired to sitting mp wendy lindsay who worked in comunity and is involved with the multi cultural community plus performs in a johny cash show for a while would seem to have a biger profile plus would the local cowncil being attacked byuy the liberals help lindsay
i cant find any info she came from the shier maybi your thinking of melanie Gibons she seems a weaker candadate then Cameron murphy her soft left faction seem to be focusing more on backing Hegarty in lepington then east hills this time maybi lindsay is a good local member
yes a soft left faction pick thats whiy there focusing on nathan hegarty any i dont think mellany gibons is from the aeria she is contesting it seems a big deal is made when a labor candadate is parashuted in but when a liberal is minsis own seat with a candadate who lives in ride no problim maybi labor should have ran Cameron murphy
lindsay main contrabution pre politics is aheading a community radio station and abeing part of a tribute show she seems a nice person but wilkinson is also a local sports coach
Wilkinson does not seem a very strong candadate suprised murphy is not running