East Hills – NSW 2023

Lindsay has little chance. Even if this remains marginal. On federal figures this would be a marginal Labor seat. She could run for the seat of Banks if Coleman retires at the next election.

The demographics are not favourable to Labor here but if the swing is on, it’s on. And I see no prospect of the Libs getting a 4th term because when was the last time they had 16 years in power? The election will be close, but remember when the past 2 coalition governments were defeated it was incredibly narrow (1976 and 1995) history will repeat itself and I see a narrow Labor win possibly falling 1 or 2 seats short of a majority.

This may be the most marginal, but I see Labor having bigger margins in Winston Hills and possibly Parramatta after the election.

Despite all the unfavourable redistributions over the last 12 years, the Coalition has managed to hold onto this seat since Glenn Brookes won it in 2011.

Wendy Lindsay has worked this seat incredibly hard, especially targeting along the East Hills Train Line, which is where the seat will be won or lost.

What will be fascinating to watch will be how the KSO vote breaks, given that they won’t be running this time around.

This will remain within a percent either way but I would rather be in the Coalition position, as Ben said in his preview, benefiting from incumbency.

Agree Hawkeye, also the down ballot effect where the NSW Coalition will have some benefit with federal Labor in power. I think the southernmost suburbs (Milperra and East Hills) are now more rigid and fairly solid Liberal areas instead of being swingy so that would also favour Wendy Lindsay to hang on, just like David Coleman did federally as I believe he only got a swing <3% against him in Banks.

Agree with Hawkeye/Yoh Ann, at the last two state elections it was often said East Hills will be the seat to fall but it ended up swinging to the Libs against the state trend. The last time this occurred even though the Libs did not have a sitting MP. At the recent Federal election, the part of Banks in Bankstown LGA swung to the Libs even as it lost government. On Federal figures the Libs won all booths south of Milperra/Canterbury Road. Also Libs can do better in the northern parts which are working class and in the seat of Blaxland even if it does not win the booths it can keep Labor’s margin low by campaigning there which they do not do at a Federal level.

I sense a bellwether here. At the 2015 and 2019 elections, the Libs had a margin of under 0.5% and yet retained it.

FYI Based on federal figures from Banks (the area south of the M5 Motorway), the Libs won all booths and there was a swing to them in almost all booths. In the Condell Park part of Banks (north of the M5), Labor suffered a swing away.

I wonder if Jihad Dib (from the now-abolished Lakemba) is eying this seat. He used to be the principal of Punchbowl Boys High, which is just outside this electorate. It’s also the nearest marginal Liberal seat.

@Votante

Tania Mihailuk lives in East Hills district. Punchbowl Boys High School is in Bankstown district. Would make sense for Mihailuk to contest here.

Nicholas, was Tania’s home drawn into East Hills during the redistribution process (thus redistricting out of her old district) or did she always live within the boundaries of this seat?

If the latter is true, and Tania decides to challenge Wendy Lindsay in a member vs member contest, then this would make the contest tough and would probably result in Labor being slightly favoured to gain it.

Looking at the redistribution map, most of the old Lakemba has been renamed Bankstown and has taken up the suburb of Bankstown. For most voters within the new Bankstown boundaries, Jihad Dib is their local MP.

It’ll be interesting to see how the preselections and captain’s picks go in Bankstown. Obviously, Tania Mihailuk wouldn’t want to voluntarily leave her safe Labor seat to contest in a marginal Liberal seat. Either Jihad or Tania will probably end up running for East Hill.

Agreed that Tania Mihailuk contesting East Hills would put Labor in front. Correct me if I am wrong but she is part of Labor Unity, so this would make her the ideal Labor Candidate to run for East Hills these days.

The only issues is that this seat was held by Labor Left (Alan Ashton, with Cameron Murphy then running twice). I wonder if they still have control of the branches or if Darryl Melham managed to take control of the area before he lost Banks.

Labor will get a statewide swing but East Hills is not a favourable area for them. I reckon the Coalition will retain this but Labor will have better luck elsewhere in Sydney.

@Yoh An

Mihailuk lives in Padstow Heights.

The Lib vote in the area in the federal election not only held up but improved in many of the polling places which is why Banks didn’t fall to Labor. That’s a positive sign for the Perrotet government though if the state wide swing is massive, it won’t be enough to save the Libs here.

This seat despite the trend towards the liberals in demographics is still ultra marginal almost line ball. With a general swing to Labor of currently 6% or more and this being an urban not country seat it is likely to be won by Labor..

The gap on primary votes was roughly 2% in the libs favour.Of the minor parties 13% of the left and 4.5% of the right. That is about 9% of the left. The libs won due to the high exhaust rate. This suggests there is a poll of left support available to the Labor candidate in a better election

The local branches in East Hills will.not choose Tania Mihailuk as the alp candidate

Mick, if it is true that local branches are still set on nominating a left leaning ALP candidate, then they are probably shooting themselves in the foot. Given that this part of Sydney is now swing/maybe slightly conservative leaning territory, Labor needs to select a more moderate candidate to have a better chance of winning this seat in what is likely to be a more neutral environment.

A left leaning candidate can indeed win here.The last 2 successful alp candidates Pat Rogan and Alan.Ashon.were both of the left

Mick, but that was some time ago. Historically this area was strongly Labor leaning. Now not so much therefore as the demographics change, parties must also adapt to suit.

Just like the north shore and northern beaches, Liberal candidates can no longer be seen as too conservative because the area doesn’t suit them any more.

My point is a good Labor candidate can come from any part of the alp. In neighbouring Oatley Lucy Mannering was a good candidate but in a bad electoral climate

Rogan was competent whereas an inanimate carbon rod would’ve been more effective and politically aware than Ashton who, to be fair, was annointed to the position by the fuedal overlord of Labour in those parts; the execrable Daryl Melham …. who got his own comeuppance a few year after.

I can certainly agree that a good Labour candidate AND sitting member (state or federal) can come from any part of the party but they need to have a working political antenae, both for the demographics and needs of their seat as do those who select them. It was the lack thereof that has sunk Labour in that area.

On my calculations, the Liberals won this seat at the federal level by around 2.4%, with a small swing to them. Whilst I do expect the ALP to outperform their federal performance here (mainly due to the fact that social issues tend to mean nothing in state politics), this is probably their last chance to have any sort of political hope in this area, especially south of the M5 (which is becoming much wealthier). If they do not win this cycle, expect this seat to become a Liberal stronghold into the future.

@ Boof head, agree the Southern Part is becoming wealthier. However, i would use Milperra road rather than the M5 as the Social divide. I dont see North of Miperra road becoming wealthier anytime soon that area is similar to Lakemba more ethnically diverse and working class and part Sydney’s Labor Heartland. For this reason i dont expect this seat to be a Liberal stronghold but have a Liberal lean (Like Banks). The test should even if Labor wins this seat in 2023 would the Liberal TPP in Banks be higher than the state-wide TPP? If so it can said to have a Liberal lean. Banks has recorded a better Liberal TPP than the statewide TPP since 2016, East Hills is yet to do so but gap has been fast narrowing at each election.

Yes Condell.park and the parts of Revesby closest to Bankstown are strongest for Labor. But if you are the sitting mp on a line ball margin facing at least a 6% uniform nsw swing.how do you keep yr seat?

By running a smear campaign on your opponent.

It won’t work if she does. Smear campaigns never win. She will be punished for it if she does conduct it, She should focus on a positive message on what she has done for this community and how the people’s lives have improved and what she plans to do for the next 4 years.

She is no Geoff Lee, Mark Coure or Victor Dominello.

My comment was a reference to what happened here in 2015.

Yes in 2015 Waa dirty trick. The nsw electoral commission took legal action against a chap.. but lost their case.

Point to make .. Labor lost here due to.the impact of opv
They lost in the primary vote by 2% then.clawed back 1.5 to give a lib.win of
0.5% now the redistribution has shifted 0.4 to Labor to give a narrow liberal victory of 0.1%. latest opinion polls are shifting 6 to.9% to Labor so that they are
Are globally outpolling the liberals..assume now Labor outpolled the liberals here by 2% and everything else remains the same as 2019.. then Labor wins by about 4%.. that is the impact of opv if you poll most primary votes

Mick, those polls may have been few months ago when the Coalition was facing issues with the public sector and scandals suffered by some cabinet members. Now with the focus on Labor the anti-corruption attacks are blunted somewhat and polls may return back to normal levels.

Also this area is now trending away from Labor, they were only competitive last cycle as it was an open seat. Wendy Lindsay will probably be able to achieve a sophomore surge factor and overcome any swing to Labor.

last time alp lost due to opv….. this time in a virtually l;ine ball seat with a swing we will see
the coalition still has scandals a plenty … Ayres Barilaro Petinos all face icac as well. And The “”Escape to new york “inquiry is still ongoing… you are right about the area trending liberal….. but the point I was trying to make was that if Labor even polls equal with Wendy they win…. that is how opv works.. difficult to come from behind and win.
If I were impartial I would look at the coalition and say vote this mob out. Barilaro is the Eddie Obeid of the conservative parties. Coronation Property has links to criminals his first job post politics.. they tried to look clean but he was too dirty for them…..

Heard a bit of mail today that the ALP pre-selected their candidate for East Hills last night. The candidate is amenable to the Ashton / Melham Left faction. It’s not Cameron Murphy (I note that he is challenging being left off the Left ticket for the ALP in the Legislative Council in the 2023 election) For the first time, the ALP has pre-selected a female candidate to contest East Hills.

Grady, Who? If you are going to say someone is pre-selected at least say who they are.

Mick – with respect you’ve been claiming East Hills for the ALP since 2011. You were counting votes for 18 months after the 2019 election so certain were you of Cameron Murphy’s victory.
The area is trending liveral big time – looks at the Banks outcome. And Lindsay will get a sophomore surge. I reckon you’ll be looking for those votes again on election night!!

There are many reasonable people who have been expecting East Hills to be won by the ALP since 2011. And it would have fallen in 2015 were it not for a smear campaign.

Her name is Kylie Wilkinson. The reason why I didn’t name her before was because I wasn’t exactly sure of her name myself. Apologies Daniel T

Apologies Daniel T. Her name is Kylie Wilkinson. I didn’t name her before because I didn’t know exactly myself.

Lindsay won’t win, I bet 100$ here. there is no way in hell a safe Labor seat turns into a liberal seat in less than a generation. it is certainly less Labor than it was before 2011, but to say this will stay Liberal forever is outright delusional and has no idea. Cameron Murphy was a bad Labor candidate in 2015 and 2019 was because of that + Daley.

Minns and the new Labor candidate which I’m still waiting to hear who it is, will do much better than the previous ALP mob in 2011-2019.

We will see 2023 is an entirely different environment to 2019.. there is a swing of 6 % plus to Labor washing through. The boundary changes has reduced this to 0.1% margin. To survive in.such a climate even with demographic changes trending to the libs is unlikely

Moderate.. think I will be right this time

DT, whilst I agree this is some way from being a safe Liberal seat; I will take issue with your comment “there is no way in hell a safe Labour seat turns into a liberal seat in less than a generation”.

Quite simply, the demographic changes were already in play back in the 90s. It just manifested earlier in the Federal sphere whereas Labour’s dominance in NSW held back the State “effect” until 2011.

This is marginal turf; winnable by either side; albeit there are parts of the electorate that are now clearly strongly Liberal.

I am not sure if the controversy regarding Cameron Murphy was the reason Labor lost in 2015. If we look at the booth results closely we can swings to both Libs and ALP in different parts of the electorates. In fact, we can see more educated and well off parts of the seat had a swing to Libs while the working class North went back to Labor showing that Labor regained its base. At the last federal election there was a swing to the Libs in much of this area which shows that it is demographic change that has constantly helped the Libs over the last decade which is why i dont feel East Hills will be an easy Labot gain.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/26226

We can also see the same trend in neighbouring Oatley. The Georges River waterfront is becoming affluent and turning bluer each election.

Nimalan, I wonder if the southern suburbs in East Hills on the Georges River waterfront can be compared similarly to suburbs like Chelmer, Graceville and Jindalee on the Brisbane River waterfront upstream of the CBD.

I checked federal polling place results for those suburbs and saw LNP easily winning them with 45-50% first preference votes and only 30-40% for Labor.

Overall, the inclusion of these suburbs alongside more Labor leaning ones like Darra and Yeerongpilly makes the federal districts marginal in nature, just like East Hills/Oatley.

Correction, those figures I quoted were from 2019. In 2022 Labor won the ‘Centenary’ and riverside suburbs but with narrower 50-55% 2PP wins compared to 65%+ in the more traditional working class areas of Richlands and Inala.

@Yoh An, Good point about Brisbane. The Riverfront tends to the most desirable parts and has Brisbane grows and these areas become scarce than then cheaper Riverside suburbs become more pricy. We can also see this in another part of Sydney namely the Canada Bay LGA which was once not that affluent but is becoming stronger for the Libs. In Melbourne, i would compare East Hills to Carrum. In the past the Beachfront in Melbourne beyond Mentone was not that desirable until you reach the Mornington Peninsula. As Melbourne grew in population and people were priced out of beachside suburbs closer to the city then these suburbs became wealthier and more desirable. I do feel that Issacs longer term will move into the Liberal Column for this reason. It is really only only the inclusion of solid working class areas in Greater Dandenong that keeps it in the Labor column even though there is virtually no community of interest.

@ Yoh An, with respect to Centenary suburbs (QLD) i compare that to my own area of suburban Manningham or maybe parts of NW Sydney such as Cherrybrook, Dural, West Pennant Hills etc. It tends to have McMansions, nouveau riche and more affluent ethnic communities. I feel the LNP under performs in this area compared to equivalent suburbs in Syd and Melb.

When Daryl won first in 1990.. Punchbowl and Riverwood voted 70% alp and the Revesby suburbs were 60/40 labors way uniformly..only part of Oatley and Lugarno were strongly liberal. Peakhurst Mortdale and Penshurst were 50/50 usually marginally Labor. Now Punchbowl is no longer in Banks. More of Oatley and Blakehurst /connells point were moved into the seat.. for some reason suburbs which did no harm to the alp vote ll in Barton.. worsened the Alp vote. In Banks.As time has gone on.. the Revesby suburbs no longer vote 60/40 some are marginal some are strong liberal.. the situation in Peakhurst Mortdale has worsened for Labor as well… Banks and East Hills remain marginal. And Oatley can be won in the right climate.

Mick’s read is, essentially, along the same lines as mine as regards voting patterns. Whilst never living in the area, I spent a good deal of time there during the mid-late 90s/very early 00s.

In those days, a reasonable rule of thumb was north of the (East Hills) railway line was solid Labour turf, albeit somewhat culturally conservative. Once you got maybe 0.5km south of the railway/shops, it started to get much more Lib friendly. As older housing stock has been replaced; north of the railway has become marginal either way, particularly in the Padstow-Revesby-Panania belt.

East Hills could be a bellwether. I don’t see this as a permanently Liberal seat despite the demographic changes and political landscape, but what happens in March 2023 will determine this.

In 2011, Oatley and East Hills were won by the slimmest margins and yet they haven’t gone back to Labor since. Even though East Hills is an ex-Labor heartland seat, it didn’t go back to Labor in 2015, unlike Rockdale, Granville, Campbelltown etc.

South of the M5 Motorway is generally low-density with mostly free-standing houses with some duplexes and townhouses. Its low-density, proximity to the river and bushlands and village atmosphere have made it really desirable for families. There isn’t much new, high-density housing.

I lived in Punchbowl just outside the Banks boundaries for a long time and as an alp member Waa involved in helping in Banks.. earlier till 1996 Labor always won.. Daryl had a couple of close results but managed to win. The boundaries in 2007 and Rudd’s win made the seat relatively safe.. post 2010 the seat had roughly its current boundaries.. since 2013 Labor has not won but came close in 2016.. .. now is still marginal but the stars need to align for a alp win.. although .. a boundary change adding Condell park or Punchbowl could make it line ball