LIB 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Wendy Lindsay, since 2019.
Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers south-western parts of the City of Canterbury-Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra, Condell Park and parts of Bass Hill and Yagoona.
Redistribution
East Hills expanded slightly on the northern edge, taking in more of Bass Hill and Yagoona from Bankstown. This change reduced the Liberal margin from 0.5% to 0.1%.
History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1953 to 2011, with only four people holding the seat during this period.
The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.
Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.
Alan Ashton won East Hills in 1999, and was re-elected in 2003 and 2007.
In 2011, Ashton was narrowly defeated by Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes.
There was a large swing to Labor in New South Wales in 2015, but Brookes gained a tiny swing to hold on despite his slim margin.
Brookes resigned from the Liberal Party in 2016 after his campaign manager was charged with electoral offences, but rejoined the party in 2017.
Brookes retired in 2019, and Liberal candidate Wendy Lindsay narrowly retained the seat.
Assessment
East Hills is a very marginal seat, but this was also the case at the 2015 and 2019 elections, yet the seat barely moved. Lindsay should benefit from incumbency, but this remains a crucial seat for Labor to win.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Wendy Lindsay | Liberal | 19,963 | 41.9 | -2.3 | 41.6 |
| Cameron Murphy | Labor | 19,152 | 40.2 | -1.8 | 40.7 |
| Suzan Virago | Greens | 2,298 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 4.9 |
| Owen Butt | Christian Democrats | 2,159 | 4.5 | -0.3 | 4.3 |
| Lisa Maddock | Keep Sydney Open | 1,773 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.5 |
| Chris Brogan | Independent | 1,346 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.7 |
| Heather Barnes | Animal Justice | 932 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.9 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 2,292 | 4.6 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Wendy Lindsay | Liberal | 21,646 | 50.5 | +0.1 | 50.1 |
| Cameron Murphy | Labor | 21,217 | 49.5 | -0.1 | 49.9 |
Booths in East Hills have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in southern parts of the seat, with 51.7% in the south-east and 55.3% in the south-west.
Labor won 55.8% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 51.7 | 13,628 | 27.2 |
| South-West | 55.3 | 9,211 | 18.4 |
| North | 44.2 | 8,350 | 16.7 |
| Pre-poll | 48.6 | 11,069 | 22.1 |
| Other votes | 49.4 | 7,824 | 15.6 |
Election results in East Hills at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
t he liberals are claiming there strugiling hear and labor can win this seat back
@aaron this seat will fall to Labor next seatl
ben some of the coments on labors candadate hear seem personal and untrue i can find no evidence that she is from cronulla and was parashuted in to this seat
Still they should still get enough votes to win the seat
Send me an email through the contact form with the exact comments you think are problematic Aaron.
Ben,
Where do I find the contact form to send you an email?
A couple of google searches can quickly disprove the claims made in posts on March 7 @ 10:08PM, March 8 @ 8:02PM, and December 21 @ 11:51pm.
Okay I deleted a couple.
@watson on the home page
I’m tipping Labor here. I also think it will go down to the wire. Having less candidates here will benefit Labor because last time, AJP and KSO (who made their electoral debut) helped split the anti-Liberal votes. Also, a shorter ballot paper correlates with less exhaustion of votes.
Earlier, I suspected this seat would swing Liberal because of the federal election results.
This is like Penrith a better alp vote than federally. A margin of
0.1% line ball . With a pro alp swing and a smaller field…
Mick, but the difference with Penrith is that there is a weak incumbent Stuart Ayres (who unfortunately has an association with the events that occurred re John Barilaro). Wendy Lindsay in East Hills is considered scandal free, and she faces a weaker Labor opponent compared to Karen McKeon in Penrith.
There is still an opportunity for Labor to win East Hills, but I would say this is a toss-up seat with only 50/50 or line ball chance of Labor gaining it, whilst the ALP is favoured to gain Penrith (>60% chance of victory).
i think penrith is a better prospect then east hills i dont think ayres is leading on primaries desbite the hype arround him he has mostly been a jnuior ministrie sport trade not high profile ministries like transpot
it might be useful if some poastersstop personal attacks and talk about election related coments i think penrith is a eazierseat to pick up then this one`
Moderate, so I presume you have polls that show Stuart Ayres leading in Penrith. If so, what type are they?
Party commissioned polls like those in US are generally unreliable. If they are non-partisan/neutral polls, then that might be a better indication the Liberals are ahead.
@moderate i hear the Labor party just made Xi Xing Ping President for his thrid term in China.
I’ve blocked a couple of people and deleted some comments. That’s enough with the personal attacks on other commenters.
@mick the one thing you can’t always assume is a uniform swing some electorates always do and will go backwards towards the incumbent regardless of the state wide swing governments can take seats off an opposition who end up winning the election
will see how this election goes it will likely beclose
wonder if willkinson can pick this up dont think iva leader has viseted this seat
Current trending has this seat on a knifes Edge but the 3 main indicators has this going to Labor:
AE Forecasts – ALP 2.3%
SportsBet – LAB $1.50
TAB – LAB $1.30
Facebook presence has Wendy Lindsay with 3.5k followers while Kylie Wilkinson only has 422.
Despite those very strong odds for Labor, that is a very narrow margin to Labor of only 2.3% and probably reflects the fact that there is still a strong Liberal presence in the seat.
You would say that Labor is in front but it is close
Labor…Liberal….Greens….? Well you see its all a corrupt club and your not in it,,,Same across the western world…There is no Democracy…Its a sham….I have seen a lot of elections in my life and see no change.Lived in East hills for over twenty years and for a long time we had no decent local member…Expect no change.
@gary maybe youd like no elections and a dictator executing political prison squashing descent etc etc. there are places in the world where they are begging for the right to vote and free and fair elections. people wont appreciate that in this country until its gone
My right of reply…..Free and Fair Elections? The political class are governed by an invisible hand…they are just managers for people who you dont vote for…..Albo and all the others take orders not from citizens…the best we can do is try to hedge their excesses.So you with no name can trot of to your next political meeting and toast the sham that is Democracy. Your ignorance on how the world works is outstanding…..put your remote down and take a closer look…Maybe some Chomsky…Ritter…Peterson etc
The ALP won this seat comfortably in the end and it wasn’t close. There were 8-10% 2PP swings across Panania and Padstow but what caught my eye was Liberal stronghold Milperra swinging by 16% to the ALP and it’s now an ALP booth. Milperra was the only Liberal booth win in the seat of Blaxland for the 2022 federal election. Interesting and I don’t understand what changed for this election.
SP,
UWS – Bankstown Campus has relocated from Milperra to Bankstown CBD. Milperra residents want a high school on the Milperra sites while other forces want a housing estate.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-ll-lose-a-campus-and-get-nothing-anger-as-uni-sells-once-public-land-20230105-p5cajb.html
We now have wall to wall Labor Governments across the nation,the citizens have spoken.If the Liberals stuck to their manifesto they would be mostly unbeatable but have chosen to be Woke and the voters are not coping it.This is no victory for Democracy just another episode in a rigged game,NSW the most corrupt state in a corrupt Federation….I dont see much Democracy around.
One Crime gang bows out to be replaced by another..as Chomsky writes Necessary Illusions..Enjoy your Bullshit folks.
so labor won this seat desbite the best efforts of the cerupt liberal backed media triying to damage the local cowncil it failed to work
Sorry Aaron put your six pack down and read my posts properly.
Wendy should concede, why hasn’t she conceded? The Liberal candidate for Aston had the decency to concede. So why is she acting like nothing happened on Facebook and blocking people for asking why she hasn’t conceded?
Sore losers shouldn’t be selected in the future because we live in a democracy and you concede when you lose. There is no law, but if you can’t be decent about it, they have no business running.
wendy and sidgreaves in camden still have not conseded after a week its not very respectful aparently sedgreaves was not a nice person
It’s common courtesy and humility to concede and congratulate your opponent. I don’t think they should be barred from running again for not publicly conceding.
There are hardly any uncounted postals and absent and provisional votes left. They’re not going to swing the outcome much, though since election night, the 2PP has dropped to 51.4%.
Literally nobody cares about concession gestures except for some ALP fanpeople.
Interesting to look at this seat it was the most narrow win of all Liberal seats in 2011 and in both 2015 and 2019 it was seen as the first seat to fall but that did not eventuate. While the NSW has has a whole has had a swing back to Labor of 18% from the 2011 election to 2023 taking into redistributions East Hills has a had only a swing back to Labor of 0.7%, unlike other seats that Libs won in the landslide in 2011 and now very safe Labor seats again such as Granville, Maitland, Charlestown, Blue Mountains, Campbelltown etc. It is now one of the first seats that Libs will need to win back and ironically i now cant see the Libs winning government in the foreseeable future without East Hills. For the first time ever despite the Libs loosing the seat it voted to the right of the state as a whole.
Federal Labor appears to be dragging NSW state Labor down here, if Labor wins in 2025 it is possible that if the economy doesn’t improve that the NSW Labor could be a one term government. The issue was for Labor in 2023 despite there ttp 54.3/47.7 they failed to win a majority and only just got over line in this electorate and Penrith. A small swing against Labor pushes further into minority or possible defeat it will be interesting to see what happens.
This seat will now go with the government of the day.i cannot believe Labor will lose the next state election
In 2027 they are not passing their use by date about 12 years and they haven’t made any obvious blunders.
@Mick governments usually don’t last 12 years. In fact the last Coalition government was the longest serving in NSW history.
@SpaceFish it is a possibility. Personally I think it’s probable that Labor will win in 2027 (potentially with a majority of about four or five seats) but it’s not certain.
@Nether Portal
I believe it was the longest serving coalition government not overall. The previous Labor government was in for 16 years and I am fairly certain that there was a Labor government in the early to mid 20th century that was in for about 24 years. NSW has been a traditional Labor stronghold although, in the last couple of decades it appears to not be the case anymore at the state and federal level.
Happy to say East Hills will be an assured Liberal gain next election. Council results were a disaster for Labor, they held two seats out of three in Revesby Ward, now the Liberals hold two. It could be likely Wendy Lindsay, who is now a councillor for Revesby Ward may resign close to the next state election, or even potentially wait around until Banks becomes vacant. Labor in NSW if dragging a bit so I expect the Liberals to regain here and Penrith (and potentially other ultra-marginals).
@SpaceFish yeah I meant to say the longest Coalition government in NSW history but I was half asleep.
@ James, i mentioned above that East Hills is trending Liberal if you look at my post above taking into account Pro Labor redistributions in 2015 and 2023, Labor only had a swing to them of 0.7% from the 2011 disaster to now. Penrith i think is a bellwether at a NSW state level.
@Nether Portal
Been there myself lol, I read some of the stuff the next day and go wow what was I writing.