Davidson – NSW 2023

IND?TEAL gain after the sitting member announced he is retiring.

Another senior mp is quitting.. the margin is huge independent of the impact of
Opv… but that increases 2pp by 10% on primary votes lib 65% all else 35% the other candidates are left of centre…. this area overlaps Bradfield where a teal did well but did not win. The most likely is a liberal win… unless they are outpolled by the teals.. then the key becomes if you don’t want a liberal don’t exhaust your votes.

What happens if Labor polls similar to the liberal vote in 2011……,? This is possible but not there at the moment.. but I would pick a 6% plus swing.

St Ives and the North Turramurra were among the weakest areas on the North Shore for the teals.

Nicholas is right. That North Turramurra booth is a very small one but St Ives is a veritable Liberal fortress and whilst there were 10-15% 2PP swings in the 5 St Ives booths; these were all 70-75% Liberal to start with. The swings were even higher along the other Arterial Road booths (with Teal winning East Lindfield) but most of these were already on lower starting points.

St Ives, and postals, were what saved Fletcher back in May and, barring something outrageous, these two factors will keep Davidson comfortably in Liberal hands.

Belrose also still voted Libs at the federal election
Don’t see Libs losing this one unless there is some super high profile independent

A teal candidate will fracture the vote more at the federal election Fletcher won.against the teal 54/46 with a 2% vote better vote against Labor. Opv unless reversed by a deliberate decision to extend preferences will.advantage the libs here

100% agree with commonwombat.

Any seat with St. Ives in it is probably a bridge too far for any non liberal candidate. Will be interesting to see where it ends up after the coming federal redistribution – and what seats without it look like on 2CP and 2PP

This seat is a non-starter for the Teals. Easy retain for the Liberal Party.

The question will be more who replaces O’Dea. The fascinating story is that the seat is dominated by one particular branch, the Forest Branch. They were formally headed up by Clr Jose Menano-Pires (Northern Beaches Council) and were instrumental in the fall of Andrew Humpherson, in favour of Jonathan O’Dea.

The two names up for potential pre-selection are the current member for KRG (soon to be Wahroonga) Alaistair Henskens, and Matt Cross, who used to be the Electorate Officer for Gladys. But all eyes will be on who can win the support of the Forest Branch.

@Hawkeye

If Henskens moves to Davidson, Kean could move to Wahroonga. This would work out quite nicely, since Kean lives in Pennant Hills (transferred from Hornsby to Wahroonga) and Henskens lives in Gordon (previously split between Ku-ring-gai and Davidson, now entirely part of Davidson).

The rumour as well is that it would open up Hornsby for Maria Kovacic to make a run.

Natalie Ward has confirmed she is running for pre-selection for LIB. As an FYI, she is currently the MLC representing Sydney North for the Liberal Party.
This makes the likely field:
Henskens (current MP for KRG)
Cross (Staffer)
Ward (MLC)

Henskins will not run in Davidson. He will run in Wahroonga.

Don’t think Kean will be moving from Hornsby in any case. He’s managed to deliver some needed “pork” with the Hornsby hospital regeneration …. even if the first stages began under last Lab govt and his predecessor Hopwood. In any case, Kean has almost certainly created sufficient a profile so as to almost certainly moderate the likely anti-Govt swing

Furthermore, on current boundaries, Hornsby was rendered unlosable once its boundaries were shifted west over Galston Gorge into semi-rural areas of Galston, Dural & Arcadia plus the major hub, Hornsby, split divided between Hornsby & Ku-ring-gai (now Wahroonga). Whilst the central railway/transport corridor of the seat is not really “blue ribbon” Liberal turf and is actually quite “swingy”; the western part of the seat is so heavily Liberal so as to provide a viable safety cushion.

So far, the only two confirmed for pre-selection for Davidson are Natalie Ward and Matt Cross. Natalie Ward would have support from the central component and has experience but Matt Cross will have full support of the local component, a similar situation to Pittwater where Natasha MacLaren-Jones was looking to move into the seat but pulled out due to the local strength of Rory Amon.

IMO, I think Matt Cross has a stronger claim to this seat.

So neither Ward not McClaren -Jones may end switching to the Assembly? And two blokes pre-selected to replace two blokes? Add in Rory Amon and its 3 new males in very safe seats. Through in Tim James and its males as far as the eye can see on the north shore (at least if you can’t see Mosman). How very modern of the Liberal Party.

I heard from a Liberal insider a crazy rumour of Ward being flown in over James in Willoughby – despite nominations having closed. Apparently the internal polling in Willoughby is very poor.

I only just saw the relevant SMH article now. “Struggling to meet the female quota target” would be an understatement.

If Wilson in North Shore has internal polling showing her struggling to hold on (as per the article), then there is probably a great deal of truth to the rumours of terrible internal polling for Tim James in Willoughby – Cammeray Park and the Warringah expressway chainsaw episodes is bang on the border of the two seats, so might be infecting both.

What are the details of “terrible polling” in Willoughby and North Shore? What sort of swings have been predicted? Is the risk an independent or Labor?

North Shore is only what the SMH article says – there are no details other than “struggling to hold on”. The margin is 11% vs the IND in 2019 and 17% vs ALP – a bit more against the Greens.

Willoughby is almost 21% against ALP but we know that crashed to a few % in the by election vs an IND with no ALP candidate present – in 2019 Labor actually come second so margin against IND was more, but would much less now.

You wouldn’t be shocked if Liberal polling for PV in both seats starts with a ‘3’, in which case they would both be in trouble vs an IND but hold on vs anyone else (no IND candidates have declared yet though). I’m not sure OPV will do them as many favours in these seats as they tend to think.

If ALP was to scrap into second in these seats there could be >12% swings but both still retained by Liberals.

Reading into that article, it sounded more like a call to arms from the Teals to try and find candidates and shout out that there is an opportunity to win these seats.

There has been no mention of source of polling, apart from the one done recently that said 54-46 to Labor. But, when you look into the detail of that poll, it was incredibly rubbery, especially with a 75% assumption of Greens Preferences to Labor under OPV. That won’t happen.

They certainly have their mits all over the main media mast heads. Its cool to be in an IND group – forget about those that have contributed to properly registered parties for many years – they are all just “hacks”.

To me, the thing with the Teal Movement is at the very top of how it is run. SHaC is basically running it in such a way that he can avoid have to submit papers around donations. He is basically doing what Clive Palmer is doing with the UAP but, by keeping it independent, he doesn’t risk exposing himself or his operations.

It is starting to get to the point where they are almost big enough, in some areas, to be considered a political party. But, like the UAP, it is all running around SHaC, who wants to get this into a position where it is self sufficient, like UAP or ONP.

Minus Brad Hazzard this will be harder for the liberals to hold. This sort of area can only be won by Labor in a landslide their way see 1978 and 1981. There have been demographic changes here which have strengthened most of the North shore for the liberals Does this seat fall completely into mackellar? It looks like the waterside areas of the North shore are teal central. There is an element on the North shore of votes for any one but the liberals .ie gr alp ajp teal etc. With the flow from alp to teal stronger than the reverse

Minus Brad Hazzard this will be harder for the liberals to hold. This sort of area can only be won by Labor in a landslide their way see 1978 and 1981. There have been demographic changes here which have strengthened most of the North shore for the liberals Does this seat fall completely into mackellar? It looks like the waterside areas of the North shore are teal central. There is an element on the North shore of votes for any one but the liberals .ie gr alp ajp teal etc. With the flow from alp to teal stronger than the reverse
One idea occurs to me if the teals outpoll the liberals here they get the opv bonus and win. This seat does not have a coastal part which will favour the liberals against the teals

Minus Mr odea this will be harder for the liberals to hold. This sort of area can only be won by Labor in a landslide their way see 1978 and 1981. There have been demographic changes here which have strengthened most of the North shore for the liberals this seat on in Bradfield looks like the waterside areas of the North shore are teal central. There is an element on the North shore of votes for any one but the liberals .ie gr alp ajp teal etc. With the flow from alp to teal stronger than the reverse
One idea occurs to me if the teals outpoll the liberals here they get the opv bonus and win. This seat does not have a coastal part which will favour the liberals against the teals

Some how I thought this was wakehurst hence the multiple posts. A combination of technology and Mick error.. the latest post is my intended one

As discussed earlier in this thread, Davidson contains the least Teal-friendly parts of the North Shore and Northern Beaches – the Forest District and St Ives.

Where this is going to get interesting is with regards to the re-distribution of branches in the seat. The Forest Branch is the biggest Branch in the Northern Beaches and were pivotal in the pre-selection of Jonathan O’Dea over Andrew Humpherson years ago.

There is every chance that this branch could be moved to Wakehurst, which would cause a seismic shift in the pre-selection process.

I’ll try and find out more as it goes on.

Thanks Hawkeye

Rumour going around that Nicolette Boele is going to run for the Teals here. A waste of time IMO, as this would probably be one of the most anti-Teal seats in Northern Sydney.

She might do pretty well in the southern half of the electorate, where she did well in the Bradfield federal electorate. At least she has some name recognition in the other parts that overlap with Bradfield, but they are a much harder lift. There’s actually not that more of this state electorate, and what there is was in McKellar, though I haven’t checked the federal result in those booths – I am assuming it was only so/so.

The main question though in several of these seats (Davidson, Lane Cove, Willoughby) is that the 2019 state results are way out of whack with the recent federal results, even looking at a 2PP measure. It’s always been thus but now it is extreme. Will the state results catch up a little, or a lot? In several seats the 2PP could be 5% better for LIB than the federal election and there could STILL be a 12 – 15% swing against them. OPV may make it hard to get within 5% of the federal result, but it is also inflating the current margins, so its works both ways.

The Teals can’t win unless the 2PP is close-ish so it’s a good proxy. If it isn’t close-ish then the LIB are at all close to 50% on Primaries.

On the notion that it is a “waste of time” for Boele to run – Labor runs in seats they have virtually no chance of winning, as do the Liberals, as do the Greens, as do minor parties.

In a typical seat, there’s six candidates, and four of them have virtually no chance of winning. It is not an exaggeration to say that Boele has a better chance of being elected than two-thirds of all lower house candidates.

@Nicholas – The difference with an Independent running and Labor running in dead seats is that Labor will run away, with the purpose of mopping up as many Upper House votes as possible.

The reason why I’m saying that it is a waste of time for Boele to run is based on two things:

1. The Norther Part of Davidson (which is mostly Mackellar Federally) still broke solidly for Liberal in the last Federal Election. This trend then continues through to St Ives, which was part of Bradfield and was Boele’s worst performing area.

2. As mentioned previously, fundraising rules make it incredibly difficult for Independents to run. If she is serious about having a second crack at Bradfield, she would be better off saving her resources and running again for Round 2. Alternatively, running for Council in KRG would have equally been a strong way to develop her profile even further.

Your point about Teal performance in Davidson district is absolutely true, but per se, I still don’t accept it as a reason why she shouldn’t run. But I do accept your point about resourcing. I just think that voters in Davidson who want to vote for a Teal should have that option.

Oh there is nothing stopping her from running and I’m not suggesting for a moment that the voters of Davidson shouldn’t have that right to vote for her. But let’s be realistic about this. The question is really, is it in her best interests to run, given that she still thinks she is a chance of winning Bradfield?

Holmes a Court might come to her rescue and drop $800K into Bradfield next time, so “saving her resources”, though prudent, might not be necessary. Thing most likely to prevent that is a change in the Electoral Funding laws.

Taking a trendy inner city seat off the Liberals is one thing – nicking Bradfield would be quite another. Though after the coming redistribution Bradfield may look a lot different. Keeping Hornsby and (most of) Chatswood, whilst losing St. Ives, would help.

I think it’s unlikely Bradfield will shed St Ives any time soon. There’s three configurations I see likely for Bradfield after the redistribution:

– The outcome I see mostly likely, and what I foresee myself putting forward in a suggestion, is for Bradfield to extend from Killara to the Hawkesbury River, through the Berowra corridor.
– Bradfield could make up its shortfall the other way, by pushing it deep into Willoughby LGA.
– If enrolment on the Northern Beaches and the North Shore is projected to be even lower than we thought, Bradfield could cross into the Northern Beaches.

All three will see St Ives remain within Bradfield.

You might be right, but I still don’t see why St. Ives couldn’t be added to Mackellar? If Cook crosses the Georges River and the Snowy Valley’s LGA is in Eden-Monaro, it’s hardly a stretch to extend an electorate along Mona Vale Road.

This may allow Warringah to stay roughly where it is, otherwise it need to shift into the actual suburb of North Sydney, which start becoming very messy. We digress though – this is a state electorate thread.

The most likely path for St Ives leaving Bradfield would be via Berowra being abolished. As Nicholas suggested this would entail Bradfield extending up to the Hawkesbury River along the rail corridor north of Hornsby and south to at least Pennant Hills. This would see Mitchell move north absorbing West Pennant Hills & Cherrybrook and much of the semi-rural areas. The trade-offs for Bradfield would be losing St Ives and areas east of Arterial Road to Mackellar and the southern boundary moving north of Chatswood to Boundary St.

The northern end of Bradfield, in and around Hornsby, is always the weakest area for the Libs with many of these booths very swingy and frequently won by Lab in reasonable to good years. Boele carried many of these booths but suffered from preference leakage which stopped her from carrying nearly all. She did poll very well along the North Shore line with her best areas being from West Pymble through Gordon to parts of Lindfield.

I like that new Bradfield – supportive of that outcome in the coming redistribution as it leaves the 4 north shore seats essentially representing the core of the areas they always have

I have it from a reliable source that The Forest Branch (LIB), which is the dominant branch in Davidson, has now been shifted to Wakehurst, following the redistribution.

This massively tips the Pre-Selection Balance for the Liberal Party in the seat, especially as The Forest is a very militant Left Branch in the NSW Liberal Party.

This makes the preselection an even bigger wildcard.

Liberals preselect political staffer Matt Cross for this seat

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-29/nsw-natalie-ward-fails-to-win-preselection/101709250

Not entirely surprised. Matt Cross is a local, has worked the seat for years and is very well known in the area.

The Forest being shifted out of the seat and into Wakehurst would have been the clincher, with Natalie losing the one branch that would have tipped the scales.

Continuing on my electorate tour, I next come to Davidson.

I currently have the following candidates running in Davidson:
LIB – Matt Cross (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)

Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: AJP, ALP, GRN, SAP
Possibly EFI (ex KSO) or Reason could run here.

The main talk really is if Nicolette will run or if some other teal will. As discussed, SHaC could back an Indy here again or outside chance of EFI aligned (EFI-ex KSO have similar policies on Climate, Integrity and Women, although have more developed policies beyond those 3 talking points). GRN came second last time and realistically has a chance for an IND to make the 2CP here… but as discussions above have mentioned, really is an uphill battle for an IND. Side Note: The ALP candidate last time (Joseph Von Bornemann) ran in Hornsby Ward A for ALP in the 2021 Council Elections.

2022 Prediction: LIB Retain

Won’t go into reasoning but a teak or teal like indep can win
On gr and alp preferences which can be directed they form 25 % of the vote. The liberals probably have the advantage here but it is not a certain liberal hold

I currently have the following candidates running in Davidson:
LIB – Matt Cross (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
ALP – Karyn Edelstein (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
GRN – Caroline Atkinson (Source: NSW Greens Website)
IND – Janine Kitson (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)

I was curious to see why Janine Kitson chose here (Davidson) instead of Wahroonga (formerley Ku-ring-gai) when she contested Bradfield that over-lapped both state electorates. But looking at the numbers and where she campaigned, makes sense. Her vote up north dropped below 2% (Hornsby East/Hornsby Central/Asquith/North Wahroonga/South Wahroonga) despite 3.69% at Hornsby [Bradfield] booth. Her vote ranges 2% through Warrawee/Waitara
2.85-3.22% range for Turramurra/South Turramurra
1.91-3.48% range for Pymble/St Ives
2.62-4.62% range for Gordon (Pre-Poll was the 4.62%)
2.18-3.76% range for Killara/Lindfield
2.37-3.72% range for Roseville/Chastwood/Castle Cove

The further south in the electorate you went, the stronger her vote. I didn’t get time to correlate between hers and Nicolette, but a brief look at the Chatswood//Roseville booths and there didn’t seem to be. Happy to be corrected. However, her profile is nowhere near as big as Nicolette’s was.

I’ll put SAP and AJP as the other possible starters here. As for the outcome, I’ll still pick a LIB Retain. I think the main interest is who will come second out of ALP, GRN or IND.

@ Politics_Obsessed according to her profile she lives in Gordon which would appear to be located in Davidson rather than Wahroonga

On a side note with this seat, the naming of this seat is ridiculous. This seat is effectively a North Shore seat, with Davidson the only section of the seat technically within the Northern Beaches (aka East of Middle Harbour).

The original proposition of renaming this seat to St Ives would have made more sense.

yes is a weird one with 2 distinct communities and plenty of bush and water in between and not much commonality on the day to day. Though politically they may both be quite conservative, they use different amenities and services.

Seems now to be norths shore with a dash of beaches where previously it was the other way around

next to no advertising seen on my side of the electorate for this one. Plenty over the road in Wakehurst for both main candidates and a bit less in Manly
Expecting an easy Lib retain here