NAT 14.5%
Incumbent MP
Chris Gulaptis, since 2011.
Geography
North coast of NSW. The seat covers all of Clarence Valley and Richmond Valley local government areas. The main centres of the town are Grafton, Yamba, Macle`an and Casino.
Redistribution
Very minor changes not affecting any voters.
History
The district of Clarence has existed since 1859, with the exception of three elections in the 1920s. The seat has been dominated by the Country/National Party since 1927. The seat has been won by the Labor Party at the 1981 and 1999 elections and at the 1996 by-election, the only occasions when another party won the seat.
The seat was won in 1938 by Cecil Wingfield of the Country Party. He defeated the sitting Country Party MP, Alfred Henry. At the time, the Country Party allowed multiple candidates to contest the same seat. He held the seat until his death in 1955.
The 1955 by-election was won by former Grafton mayor Bill Weiley, also of the Country Party. He held the seat until he retired at the 1971 election.
At the 1971 election, the Country Party’s Matt Singleton won Clarence. In 1981, the redistribution created the new seat of Coffs Harbour and made Clarence a notional Labor seat. Singleton shifted to the new seat of Coffs Harbour, which he held until his retirement in 1990. He served as a minister in the Greiner government from 1988 to 1989.
The 1981 redistribution also abolished the Labor seat of Casino, which had existed for ten years. It had been won by the first time in 1971 by the ALP’s Don Day. Day became a minister when the ALP won power in 1976, and in 1981 moved to the seat of Clarence. He retired at the 1984 election.
Clarence was won back in 1984 by the National Party’s Ian Causley. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1995. In 1996, he resigned from Clarence to contest the federal Labor seat of Page. He held that federal seat until his retirement in 2007.
In 1996, Causley defeated the sitting Labor Member for Page, Harry Woods. Woods, newly out of work, contested Causley’s vacated seat of Clarence and the ensuing by-election, and won the seat. He became a minister in the Labor government in 1997, and served in that role until his retirement in 2003.
Clarence was won in 2003 by the National Party’s Steve Cansdell, and he was re-elected in 2007 and 2011.
Less than six months after winning a third term, Cansdell resigned in September 2011 after making a false declaration in relation to a traffic offence. The subsequent by-election saw Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis easily elected. Gulaptis was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Chris Gulaptis is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Clarence is a safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Chris Gulaptis | Nationals | 22,965 | 46.5 | -3.9 |
| Trent Gilbert | Labor | 10,342 | 21.0 | -7.5 |
| Steve Cansdell | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 8,308 | 16.8 | +16.8 |
| Gregory Clancy | Greens | 3,914 | 7.9 | -1.2 |
| Debrah Novak | Independent | 3,038 | 6.2 | +1.5 |
| Thom Kotis | Sustainable Australia | 788 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Informal | 1,657 | 3.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Chris Gulaptis | Nationals | 25,985 | 64.5 | +4.8 |
| Trent Gilbert | Labor | 14,322 | 35.5 | -4.8 |
Booths in Clarence have been divided into five areas. Those booths in the two main towns of Grafton and Casino have been grouped together. Those booths to the north-east of Grafton along the Clarence river, including those in Maclean and Yamba, have been grouped as “Clarence River”.
The remaining booths have been split into “north” and “south”. At the by-election, there were no rural booths north of Casino, but the redistribution added a number of booths in this area to the “north” grouping.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 60.7% in the south to 66.8% in the centre.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.1% in the north to 25% in the south.
| Voter group | SFF prim % | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Grafton | 22.5 | 65.4 | 9,641 | 19.5 |
| Central | 14.9 | 66.8 | 9,129 | 18.5 |
| Casino | 13.6 | 61.0 | 4,048 | 8.2 |
| North | 13.1 | 62.1 | 3,581 | 7.3 |
| South | 25.0 | 60.7 | 1,962 | 4.0 |
| Pre-poll | 15.6 | 65.5 | 14,950 | 30.3 |
| Other votes | 15.4 | 61.5 | 6,044 | 12.2 |
Election results in Clarence at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.
Sitting np mp not reconnecting… rats and a sinking ship?
At worst, the Nationals will win by 5% in a 2PP count. With a rightward trending seat & an already bloated margin, I cannot envisage an ALP victory here anytime soon. However, perhaps Steve Cansdell should run again, maybe as an independent.
Labor could do it, people r ready for change, and can c improvement nationally. Why not? I heard the Labor candidate is driven and knows the community and issues well. He is also a change maker. Give him a go.
Difficult.. Was 4% swing to nats against the syate
State trend. Primary was 46% np
54% elsewherw
There is a large opv bonus and inflated vote it is therefore possible that required swing is much less than the 14% bonus minus the sitting mp who retires this depends on the swing and the quality of candidates
In 2019 a significant 1st preference vote went against the NAT sitting member to the SFF candidate who was a former Nat MP. Without a SFF candidate nominated, and with the sitting member retiring, how are these first preferences likely to flow? The new Nat candidate carries significant baggage from an unpopular stint as Councillor and Mayor. There seems to be a groundswell of protest against the Nats similar to last time but this time there is no obvious (eg SFF) alternative. Any thoughts?
With towns and villages like Coraki and Casino, Labor doesn’t stand a chance 😢