Castle Hill – NSW 2023

This would be one of the last Blue Wall seats (North and Northwest Sydney wall of Blue seats that the liberals have built since 2011) to fall. This isn’t natural teal territory but a big swing could he on like the overlapping Mitchell at the recent fed election.

This is one of the safest Lib seats in the whole of NSW. Even with a huge swing like in the federal election, the Libs will still be able to retain very comfortably. The Libs will only lose this in WA 2021 style wipeout.

In a WA 2021 style wipeout, if the Liberals were to hold on to only one seat in metropolitan Sydney, it’d be this one.

This would be the Cottesloe of NSW, even in a WA 2021 this wouldn’t fall. I’d say seats like Davidson would be the Nedlands/Churchlands of NSW.

This area is known to be socially conservative as well. I believe the SSM vote was pretty close here. But I believe it narrowly recorded a “No” vote?

I doubt Elliot is running, why would he want to stick around potentially being in opposition or minority government? He probably wouldn’t be interested waiting 8-12 years to become premier as he would be well into his 60’s when he has a decent prospect of being premier.

Seats like Davidson would fall to independents if there was a wipeout of the Liberals.

Castle Hill is very different to Nedlands/Churchlands in WA. Nedlands and Churchlands are within Curtin federally and it fell to a teal. Curtin is probably more similar to Wentworth.

NSW has a stronger and larger red wall and blue wall than WA does. There’s definitely a blue wall running from Kellyville to Wakehurst. It’s impossible to lose unless there’s a by-election, combined with a strong independent candidate and a weak Liberal candidate.

I think it was Antony Green who once said that there are more concentrated Labor-voting bases in NSW (Western Sydney, the Inner West, around Port Botany, Illawarra and the Hunter) and so that’s why NSW Labor saved more seats in 2011 than the WA Liberals did in 2021 and than QLD Labor did in 2012. NSW Labor won 20/93 in 2011, the WA Liberals won 2/59 in 2021 and QLD Labor won 7/89 in 2012.

NSW seats tend to be quite safe with few marginal seats existing, probably an effect of the OPV system. For example, the Libs have a lot of 20+% margin seats in Sydney which they don’t in any other major city.

Votante, the WA election was a worse result than both the NSW and Queensland landslides. The 2PP figures were 69% for WA, 64% for NSW and 62% for Qld. If the Liberal Party had secured a few extra %, they could have won 5-10 seats.

Still it shows NSW has better stability with more safe seats for each side.

Castle Hill is essentially the core of the federal seat of Mitchell. Whilst the Libs could take some real hits in various parts of the seat; the swings would not be sufficiently uniform in spread and the core conservative nature of the area too much to overcome. This is NOT teal country; the only scenario under which Libs would lose would be a major ruction inside the local party where an unsatisfactory candidate wins pre-selection and a disaffected Lib (with some public profile) stands as an Independent, albeit with the support (overt or not) of parts of the local party.

Yoh An. Yes. WA Liberals had a worse seat count compared to their 2PP. QLD Labor’s 2PP and primary vote in 2012 were better than than NSW Labor’s 2011 but won a smaller share of seats in parliament.

BTW the new redistribution of Castle Hill looks better. At least the entire Castle Hill (the suburb) is within the electorate, and not on the edge, and also follows main arterial roads a lot better than the old boundaries does.

@Votante

Yes, I pushed hard in my redistribution suggestion for there to be one district covering the growth corridor from Bella Vista to Rouse Hill, and the other to cover most of the rest of The Hills Shire. I’m very glad the panel heeded!

Looks like we will have a pre-selection fight. Ray Williams and David Elliott look set to clash over Kellyville, with Castle Hill likely to be left to Insolvency Lawyer and former NSW YL President Noel McCoy.

@Hawkeye

Do you happen to know the factional alignment of Noel McCoy?

He is part of the Conservative wing of the Liberal Party. He was also the last Conservative to be president of the NSW YL Movement, before the Center-Right took control through Scott Farlow and Simon Fontana. Noel was also heavily backed by Dom and Charlie Perrottet.

Fun fact, it was then suppose to be a power share between the CR and the Left, with James Wallace and then Alex Dore, but then Alex Dore teamed up with Christopher Rath, both people abandoning their respective factions to join the Left.

Not thrilled to hear that given my own political views and that I now live here, but I suppose it’s to be expected for a seat in The Hills.

Well this is interesting https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-liberals-block-candidate-over-mandatory-vax-lockdown-opposition-20221201-p5c2ws.html

No idea what happens now. From what I’ve heard about the guy (dubious preselection choice based on personal closeness to Perrottet’s family, ivermectin fan, etc) I’m happy if this stops him from entering parliament. Though I doubt the top brass of the party wants Elliott back either.

Perrottet might use this opportunity to parachute himself into this seat especially if he’s worried about the margin in Epping. Noel McCoy is close to Perrottet so I doubt the local branches won’t be too annoyed. Of course David Elliot might try and win preselection again but I doubt that he would find enough support if he couldn’t do it last time.

If the premier shifts it will be
A bad look and increase the alp
Chances in Epping. If he contested Epping he would win
The problem would be the subsequent by election.

Agreed, Mick, it would be extremely cowardly for Perrottet to ditch Epping. I’d like to think he’s better than that.

Rumour is that the Liberal Party is deliberately holding back on Pre-selection for Castle Hill until the new year. The rumour is that they may be able to force a situation where they will allow David Elliott to make his wanted transfer to Castle Hill.

Agree Hawkeye, I read from some sources (may have been public media) that the party executive may have realised that Noel McCoy was too controversial, and they should have let David Elliott transfer to Castle Hill.

This situation is giving me federal election vibes which could prove a problem for the state Libs like how it did to the federal Libs in NSW. Though Noel McCoy certainly is a horrible candidate and good that he is dumped, the local branches likely will revolt like how they did at the federal election and cause a whole load of problems.

I would love for Elliott to retire (like officially) because in my view he is one of the issues with the Liberal party, namely because after the South Australian state election he claimed the party was going down too “left and woke” he claims being moderate Is unelectable which is absolutely false and is actually the opposite to the truth.

Sky news also echoes this false claim and if they want to keep losing elections be my guest. I’m not aware of Elliots faction, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is associated with the Christian right. Although Perrottet had links, he hasn’t governed like one and doesn’t say ridiculous statement which he knows would be false.

Elliot has said nothing since the Victorian election but if he believes that party is electable, he is losing his marbles. The Liberal party needs truth-tellers not people who are outright in denial about the truth. Conservatives only win when Labor shoot themselves in the foot like 2019 federally, but remember, Morrison wasn’t Dutton. And even Dutton has softened down since.

Of course Elliot would win here with a swing against if he ran. But the this is Castle Hill we are talking about… an area where Labor struggles to crack 40% on TPP even in Wranslides and during the Hawke years. Hasn’t voted Labor since the Whitlam years and at a state level you might have to go back to the 1940s/50s.

David Elliot is part of the soft right faction, the one run by Morrison and Hawke whereas Perrottet and McCoy are part of the hard right faction, the one Abbott and Dutton is alligned with.

Daniel T,
David Elliot has already announced that he is jumping ship.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/divisive-nsw-minister-david-elliott-to-quit-state-politics-20221023-p5bs21.html

*Watson watch – I think you might have missed the earlier discussion.

David Elliott “retired” because he was about to lose pre-selection in kellyville and permitted blocked his move to castle hill. He was offered riverstone but refused.

Noel Mccoy being dropped may end up resulting in Elliott rescinded his retirement plans and running in castle hill

Hawkeye,
Thanks for the explanation. It is much appreciated.

Elliot will probably weigh the parties election prospects before contesting considering I see him resigning and triggering a by-election of the Libs lose.

He won’t be leader, for the reasons I stated previously. He is another Matthew Guy and would turn the party into the Vic Libs. I suspect Matt Kean is a lock for the leadership.

This area reminds me of the Sunderland shire. Conservative leaning (not small L liberal like the north shore)

Can we stop talking about Elliott “moving” to Castle Hill? He wasn’t moving anywhere, Castle Hill is the successor to his previous seat.

Describing Noel McCoy as a “horrible candidate” is an utterly ignorant comment. We are talking about a very successful lawyer who is partner in one of the world’s biggest and most prestigious law firms: https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-us/people/132103

McCoy is a star candidate and exactly the type of highly qualified and successful person that is needed in Parliament. Not just some factional hacks or staffers or union officials or local councillor or bored Karen.

@Ben Raue, with the greatest of respect to you, I’m looking at this from the lens of the Liberal Party Branches that are moving around here. For me, Elliott would be forced to move because his branches have now been split in half between Kellyville and Castle Hill, while the branches from Ray Williams have all flooded into Kellyville. This is why it is a forced move for Elliott, at best, into Castle Hill.

With Castle Hill, they have their established branches from the days of Perrottet, some branches that have moved back in from Epping (which are friendly to Perrottet) and some of the Elliott Branches. This is why Elliott couldn’t win pre-selection, as the Castle Hill Branches dynamics have shifted considerably.

I can appreciate that this is something you wouldn’t have a lens on, so at least this gives you context to the description of this as a move.

well allex hawke is backing williams over elliott aparently they dont get along desbite big in the same faction think the right will refuse to campaign foor elliott if he was installed buy perottit desbite williams achieving litle he is a loil member of allex hawkes group

@Entrepreneur, I dealt with Noel McCoy during my time in the YL’s and he was simply horrendous as YL President. This is my own personal experience with him. The fact that he then hitched his wagon onto the Anti-Vax/Trumpism movement should also serve as a massive warning.

It won’t matter anyway as I believe the Liberal Party has moved to block McCoy from running.

In the alp. You need to actually
Live in a electorate to vote in.a
Preselection. It appears in the liberal party entirely branches can be moved from electorate to electorate then back again
I don’t understand this can someone please explain

Probably as a consequence of redistributions, with location-based branches occasionally changing electoral districts.

@DCook – the same thing affects ALP branches. Mick Q is asking how the Liberal party handles this.

@Mick Quinlivan – perhaps the Liberal Party do not have have Composite Branches like ALP does. Perhaps they have all the branch in an electorate, or none of it – which seems a recipe for shenanigans and disputes…..

If boundaries change you can shift electorates and sometimes be forced to change branches
I fully understand that. But if I don’t live in an electorate I cannot be part of the party organisation in that electorate and I certainly don’t get a preselection vote for an electorate if I live in another electorate. There seems to be something else in the liberal party.. eg on Willoughby there was mention of an entire branch moving. Maybe Hawke eye knows. I do not know the liberal party rules as simply it is not my party

The rumour in Willoughby was that some members aligned with St. Gladys – that were permitted to vote in Willoughby pre-selections – were shifted to North Shore way back in 2017, in order to boost the numbers of Felicity Wilson there. This seemed to be permissible. But then no-one bothered to protect the other flank and shift them back. This counted against the Moderates in the Willoughby by election pre-selection earlier this year. Perhaps shifting back was stretching the rules a bit too far. Like you, I do not know.

Agree, I think we need Hawkeye to explain.

Can Explain for both.

Using the State set-up as the basis, every seat has, at least one branch in a State Electorate Conference. If that branch is the only branch in the SEC, that Branch is the conference, as a matter of completion.

If a Conference has multiple Branches, then, during redistribution, branches can be re-assigned as the centre of what that branch represents has changed seats. The classic example now is Wakehurst, where The Forest Branch (previously in Davidson) has now been redistributed to Wakehurst, as the entirety of Frenches Forest is now in Wakehurst, instead of being split between Wakehurst and Davidson.

In the case of Willoughby, I think it would have been the Crows Nest Branch that got thrown over to North Sydney, as an attempt to protect Felicity Wilson (I could be wrong here). That was done because they knew that Felicity Wilson was vulnerable to Tim James. In the end, they were right to do so because Wilson only got up by 1 vote in pre-selection. But, as has been started before, this left Willoughby exposed and James managed to swoop in, I think with Artarmon fully transferred into Willoughby as well (which was previously in Lane Cove).

Which brings us to the situation with Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills/Kellyville and (for completion purposes), Seven Hills/Winston Hills and Hawkesbury.

Back in 2011, you had Toongabbie (still controlled by Labor), Hawkesbury (whose main population centre was Rouse Hill/Box Hill/Nelson, where all the branches are with Ray Williams), Baulkham Hills (Baulkham Hills itself and Winston Hills is David Elliott’s base) and Castle Hill (whose original base in Castle Hill and West Pennant Hills was Dom Perrottet).

In 2013, the redistribution saw Castle Hill shift North to take Rouse Hill, Nelson and Box Hill, basically gifting the seat to Ray Williams, as Perrottet lost West Pennant Hills to Epping, while David Elliott lost part of Winston Hills to Seven Hills (which, along with losing half of Lalor Park, made the seat notionally Liberal). To avoid a pre-selection stoush, a deal was made for Williams and Perrottet to swap seats.

This time around, Baulkham Hills became Kellyville (as it shifted to become the Eastern side of Old Windsor Road/Windsor Road up to Rouse Hill). This meant that Baulkham Hills/Kellyville lost Baulkham Hills and the rest of Winston Hills and gained the rest of Kellyville, Beamount Hills and Rouse Hill. This resulted in Ray Williams seeing his branches move SEC for the 2nd time in as many redistributions, meaning that his correct SEC is now Kellyville. David Elliott’s base has basically been split 3 ways, betwee, Kellyville, Castle Hill and the now-Winston Hills.

Meanwhile, with Castle Hill basically running from the M2 up through Castle Hill to Kenthurst and beyond, it has regained West Pennant Hills, retained Castle Hill and gained all the branches up towards Kenthurst and Annangrove. This area is semi-rural and is very similar to West Pennant Hills. Half of Perrottet’s Branches are actually back in Castle Hill as a results. However, his personal branch is still in Epping (although he is now virtually on the border with the new Castle Hill). It is not inconceivable that he moves back into Castle Hill as a result, but I would very much doubt it.

One thing that everyone needs to remember with all of this is that, as long as someone either lives in that Seat or in an adjoining seat, no-one generally has a problem because the size of the State Electorates can be quite small and, as we have seen, these borders can change wildly, especially in certain areas of Sydney.

Elliott has been squeezed out, as his supporters are now split between 3 seats, in Kellyville, Castle Hill and Winston Hills. He won’t win Kellyville (because Ray Williams has the seat lock and key). He could muscle his way into Winston Hills (but he won’t because he is actually really good friends with Mark Taylor and Taylor has been doing a fairly good job). He can’t get into Castle Hill because he won’t have the numbers. He was offered Riverstone and Parramatta and declined both. It was Castle Hill or bust for him and he ended up with bust.

Hawkeye, I think David Elliott would have been favoured to retain Riverstone if he had chosen to transfer there. He has performed decently as Transport minister, especially when faced with conflict with unions. This is combined with the fact that 2023 election will be close, as Labor only retains a narrow 2PP and primary vote lead in current polls.

Thanks Hawkeye – great detail.
The question we have though is when all these branches are moving around, is each branch either “all in” an electorate or “all out”? That is, no branch straddles a seat border and has some members who can vote in one seat for pre-selection and some who can vote in another? Is that how it works?? If so, how is this allocation decided – by simple geographical majority or by an Admin decision?

In the ALP there is what can be a hard to understand (and explain) system of “composite branches”. But the aim of it is to avoid anything subjective. If you are enrolled in a state electorate with the NSWEC/AEC, that’s the only place where you have pre-selection rights. Branches with some members who live in one electorate and some members who live in another, are referred to as a Composite branch.

Does this concept exist in the Liberals? I vaguely recall someone telling me at some point (LOL – how Scott Morrison of me!) that it didn’t, but great if you can confirm.

The liberals I understand have
A central and a local component . In the alp you would never be able to shift a whole branch because they have
Rules against branch stacking. Trip wire rule. But you cannot vote in a preselection or hold office in an electorate council
Unless you live there

May I suggest the alp approach is better

So Branches are “All In”. If One moves, everyone moves. The other thing to consider is that if you have been in a Branch for 2 years or more, you are “Grandfathered” into that branch, which means that, even if your branch moves electorate, you stay with that branch.

The Branch you join depends on your Federal Seat (The exception is the Young Liberal Movement, where you can join a YL Branch from an adjoining Federal Seat). The branch you join is then assigned an equivalent State Seat. An example where this can get a bit funky is within my SEC of Wakehurst. I now live in Mona Vale (In Pittwater) but, because I was with the Beacon Hill Branch in Wakehurst for 2 years or more, I kept my membership in Beacon Hill despite moving. The other example is Wakehurst is predominantly the South Side of Mackellar. But the Branch of Forestville/Killarney Heights (Tony Abbott’s Branch) is in Wakehurst, despite its Federal Seat being Warringah.

“Composite Branches” don’t straddle Seats but exist when there aren’t multiple Branches. Effectively, there is one branch in an entire seat so (in the state sense), the branch is given the status of SEB (State Electorate Branch).

Thanks Hawkeye_au.

It seems the grandfathering only applies if you move within your federal electorate. Like, I assume you couldn’t move to Cronulla and stay a member of the Beacon Hill?

The main difference with the ALP are:
– it’s the state electorates that decide your possible branches, not the federal.
– you can ONLY vote in a preselection (or hold an SEC/FEC office) for the electorate where you are enrolled to vote

ALP also has the situation where one branch is the only branch in a state electorate – but they are called “Electorate Branches”. Composite branches are basically the exact opposite. Its good to realise that these two terms can have totally different definitions in different parties!

@Insider – Not correct. If I have been a member of Beacon Hill for 2 years and then decide to move to Padstow (where Mrs Hawkeye grew up), I can retain my membership within Beacon Hill. This doesn’t actually do anything in regards to Branch Stacking. It acknowledges your connection with that community.

As for the point of differences, the first one, you are 100% Correct and the 2nd one, you are also correct. In the Liberal Party, you earn voting rights after you have been the member of a branch for a year. This is one measure that helps limit the attempts of Branch Stacking.

There was an attempt to change the Liberal Party rule from the Federal to the State electorate to decide your potential branches. It didn’t get up (rightly so, IMO) because the state Electorates are too small and can change much more significantly than the Federal Electorates, so basing on the Federal Electorates presents with more stability.

Also, Victorian Labor has been caught out engaging in branch stacking scandals with Adam Somyurek so you are wrong Ian to suggest that branch stacking is solely a Liberal Party/Coalition issue.

@Hawkeye-au and @Yoh An
Looks like someone tried to impersonate me on my IP address and start a political fight, I’m really sorry for any of this and I’ve been trying to resolve this on my end. Ben, can you please delete those two comments?

@Hawkeye – thanks.

ALP also has its rules for preselection voting, but it’s more strict than just a straight 12 months.

I think your concerns wrt state electorate vs federal are overblown. The redistributions are only every 7 years and most times there are only minor changes. And anyway, all it affects is which branch can you be a member of. Where I live I can choose 4 branches, just due to the way the branch boundaries fall vs the state electorate boundary. It doesn’t effect where you can vote in a pre-selection.

It seems crazy to me that you can have all these people all over the state being members of branches they live no where near – anymore. That could still lead to odd outcomes – probably not nefarious though.

Cheers

@insider – all good. Great chat and fascinating to see the machinations like that. Both systems have their pros and cons.