ALP 12.0% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Nick Lalich, since 2008.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Cabramatta covers southeastern parts of the City of Fairfield, including Abbotsbury, Bossley Park, Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Mount Pritchard, Bonnyrigg Heights, Edensor Park, Lansvale and part of Bonnyrigg.
Redistribution
Cabramatta shifted north, gaining the remainder of Canley Vale from Fairfield, Bossley Park from Prospect, and Abbotsbury from Mulgoa. The seat also lost Bonnyrigg Heights and part of Bonnyrigg to Liverpool. These changes reduced the Labor two-party-preferred margin from 25.5% to 19.6%. My estimated two-candidate-preferred margin against the independent reduced from 12.9% to 12.0%, but does not factor in the new areas.
History
The electoral district of Cabramatta has existed since 1981. It has been held by four MPs, all members of the Labor Party.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Eric Bedford, who had held Fairfield since 1968. He served as a minister in the Wran government from 1976 until his retirement in 1985.
The 1986 by-election was won by Fairfield deputy mayor John Newman. He held the seat until his death in 1994. Phuong Ngo, a former independent candidate for Cabramatta, was convicted of Newman’s murder.
The 1994 by-election was won by Reba Meagher. She was appointed to the Labor government’s ministry following the 2003 election. She served in the ministry until 2008, when she was removed from the ministry as part of events which saw the downfall of NSW Premier Morris Iemma. Her final portfolio was as Health Minister after the 2007 state election.
The 2008 Cabramatta by-election saw a massive 21.8% swing against the ALP. The seat was won by Fairfield mayor Nick Lalich. He was challenged by Liberal candidate Dai Le. The swing was one of the biggest in NSW history. It would have been a record prior to the by-election, but was surpassed by a 23.1% swing in the seat of Ryde, which held a by-election on the same day. Both seats’ records were beaten at the 2010 Penrith by-election.
Nick Lalich has been re-elected three times. Nick Lalich continued to serve as Mayor of Fairfield while sitting in Parliament, until he stepped down at the 2012 council election.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Nick Lalich is not running for re-election.
- Mark Smaling (Liberal Democrats)
- Roz Chia Davis (Greens)
- Kate Hoang (Independent)
- Courtney Nguyen (Liberal)
- Tri Vo (Labor)
- Randa Moussa (Animal Justice)
Assessment
With Dai Le now out of the picture as a federal MP, it’s likely this seat will be an easy retain for Labor, although if the local Carbone party is emboldened by their federal success they could find another serious candidate here and threaten Labor’s hold.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Lalich | Labor | 23,616 | 49.9 | -10.0 | 48.7 |
| Austin Le | Liberal | 7,018 | 14.8 | -13.4 | 20.6 |
| Dai Le | Independent | 12,250 | 25.9 | +25.9 | 19.6 |
| Christopher James | Greens | 2,384 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 5.3 |
| Phuoc Vo | Independent | 2,075 | 4.4 | +4.4 | 3.4 |
| Others | 2.5 | ||||
| Informal | 2,102 | 4.3 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Lalich | Labor | 25,089 | 62.9 | -4.3 | 62.0 |
| Dai Le | Independent | 14,818 | 37.1 | +4.3 | 38.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Lalich | Labor | 27,375 | 75.5 | +8.3 | 69.6 |
| Austin Le | Liberal | 8,871 | 24.5 | -8.3 | 30.4 |
Booths in Cabramatta have been split into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.2% in the west to 79.8% in the east.
There was a strong independent vote (mostly for Dai Le), ranging from 17.2% in the west to 30.4% in the centre. It’s worth noting that a substantial part of the west was not part of the seat in 2019, so there were no votes cast there for Le.
| Voter group | IND prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 17.2 | 55.2 | 14,069 | 27.0 |
| Central | 30.4 | 74.4 | 10,593 | 20.3 |
| East | 26.9 | 79.8 | 8,047 | 15.4 |
| Pre-poll | 29.7 | 81.3 | 11,102 | 21.3 |
| Other votes | 19.7 | 65.1 | 8,359 | 16.0 |
Election results in Cabramatta at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, independent candidates and the Liberal Party.
If Nick Lalich retires then I suspect Tu Le will run here and win, otherwise could the Mayor of Fairfield (forgot his name) who serves with Dai Le (no relation) on the Fairfield mayoralty/council and recently was elected federal MP for Fowler. There were rumors that he himself could run here, not sure if he still plans on it but if he does this should be a close and key contest.
Agree Daniel, Frank Carbone is popular as Fairfield Mayor and would be a strong candidate if he chooses to run here, especially if Labor pick a weak candidate to replace Lalich if he retires.
Frank Carbone will be a good fit for the Western Part of the seat like Abbotsbury, Bossley Park etc where there is a large Italian Community but in Cabramatta itself there maybe pressure for an Indochinese candidate. Nick Lalic is of Serbian background and in the past there was a large Serbian community around Cabramatta although much of them have now moved to Prestons, Leppington etc
Frank Carbone and Dai Le are really close allies and ran on the same council ticket even though Carbone is ex-Labor and Le is ex-Liberal.
Frank Carbone considered running in Fowler this year but then chose not to. If he were to run at the state election, he might ride the Dai Le-effect but won’t win emphatically like Dai Le did. For one, he has nowhere near as much electioneering experience as Dai Le (who ran for the state seat three times). Also, he doesn’t have her profile and he doesn’t speak Vietnamese.
@Nimalan, just wanted to drop by and say I’m constantly impressed with your knowledge of demographics and suburb profiles!
It will be interesting to see what happens to the preselections in this seat and the neighbouring ones. Nick Lalich is likely to retire with his age and the Labor MPs will be scrambling for seats after the abolition of one of Lakemba (or Bankstown depending on how you look at it). To make things complicated, Labor would be under pressure to not parachute in someone to avoid the threat of Frank Carbone running.
Do we know if any of the Labor Members will be forced into a seat re-shuffle following the redistribution?
Dan m. Is right one safe Labor seat has been abolished. But it is up to local party members to decide who they want in various seats. The dangers of any musical chairs is the Carbone dai le group who control Fairfield council
@Trent, i have always been fascinated by demographics and how that affects election results. I was always perplexed why Port Melbourne/South Melbourne saw a long term increase in the Liberal vote until recently with gentrification unlike the inner north which you helped me to understand in the Macnmaara thread. Yoh An also helped me to understand Brisbane and its demographics.
While I can’t find an official statement on his retirement, Nick Lalich made a valedictory speech in parliament yesterday.
Hansard- https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Hansard/Pages/HansardFull.aspx#/DateDisplay/HANSARD-1323879322-129491/HANSARD-1323879322-129704
Recording- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YySDSGyJw_4
Preselection will be everything here and in Fairfield, one must hope that Labor have learnt from what happened in Fowler.
It’s been reported Labor are going to open up a preselection for the rank and file in Cabramatta. Tu Le is expected to stand. But apparently she is not favored to win.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11593993/Tu-Le-run-Cabramatta-Labor-allow-rank-file-vote-NSW-parliament-seat.html
@ Political Nightwatchman, Do you know who else might run for pre-selection?
Don’t know candidates Tu Le would be a candidate.. if Labor picks a poor candidate the seat is in danger. If Tu Le does not win preselection then she will get to know the alp members in the electorate by canvassing them.. this increases her chances of winning preselection for Fowler subsequently. Think Dai Le would prefer not to face her in a federal election
@Nimalan “Vietnamese Community in Australia NSW president Kate Hoang, local Canley Vale lawyer Tri Vo and Shawn Lu are the other likely candidates in Cabramatta.” according to the Australian.
Tu Le is likely going to struggle to win preselection in this seat since she has developed strong enemies from the pro-Keneally branches during the Fowler debacle who blame her for Labor losing the seat. That being said, she’s better off waiting to run in Fowler in 2025 against Dai Le.
@ Dan M I think Kate Hoang will be good for Labor in this seat due to her strong links to the Vietnamese community and it was show that Labor has learnt from the KK debacle.
Agree Tu Let will struggle this time although in 2025 I believe the party would have moved on
Tu Le has been mentioned today in the news with links to Labor party alleged corruption. Tsk tsk tsk… I wonder how this will play out at preselection level and with voters.
The timing of that seems like a factional hit job. I guess some in the Labor Party really don’t want Tu Le preselected.
Not a factional hit job! It’s the truth. The people of NSW should know about the instances of corruption in NSW Labor that continue to surface even 12 years later! Mayor Asfour… Tu Le… and how could we forget Minns and the Aldi bag
Kate Hoang is a vietnamese candidate born and bred in Cabramatta. She didn’t go to the media demanding a seat like Tu. Tu moved to cabramatta in 2021. She is being foeced upon locals by thr fowler former member who has an obaession with her. The locals back Kate Hoang.
Tu is actually a blow in in the area. Lied to the media about being local which is why so many people do not support her. There are atleast 5 women I can think of from the area who are active and good looking too must I say. It’s a shame the MP tried to push his interest by forcing her way in. The truth always comes out in the end. The 3 grants given to her are a big give away as to clues about why he is desperate to push her into any seat possible in the area. They need to be stopped.
The Labor party just never learns…
I understand tu le demanded a rank and file ballot for Fowler. this is very different from what other posters have said here. I have not met Kate hope she is a good candidate
Tu le may have publickly called for a rank and file ballit but it was clear that Chris hayes the out going mp wanted herinstalled buy head office it seems the only faction in labor that truly supports rank and file ballits is the soft left faction lead buy paul lynch and have nathan hegarty in leping and the new liverpool candadate seems like bowen will get his candadate in fairfield and sum one will get cabramatter tu le is band from talking to the media thisand hayes cant speak on her bahalf niver can his brother all they will bein trouble of hq
She may have publickly pushed foor a rank and file vote but from Cris hayes resignation pres conference it was clear the health survices union wanted her installed like kenearly it seems she has little local support and hayes who is not from the aeria iva wanted to hand the seat over to her
Tu Le would be a great choice as she has the expereince, committment, and skills to work with all groups in the community. Her communication is excellence, you can see it through all her interviews.
Toan Nguyen, you were knocked out of Bankstown by Tania. Hopelessly moved to Fairfield to be a proxy for Tu Le hooping for council position. Stop lying, Tu doesn’t have any experience. She is opposed by so many branch members and local communities. Cabramatta branch moved a motion against her twice! If Tu could win rank n file, it must be a fishy one orchestrated by the union block in the jersey uniform.
Tri Vo wins the Labor preselection for Cabramatta in a canter.
“High-profile Labor figure Tu Le has failed in a comeback bid to become the party’s Cabramatta candidate for the 2023 NSW state election.
Tri Vo, a lawyer from Canley Heights, prevailed over three others, including Tu Le, in an ALP Cabramatta preselection on Saturday morning.
The local lawyer received 39 out of 61 votes in the first round of voting – an outright majority.
Ms Le, also a lawyer, received six votes, while Adrian Wong received 10 and Kate Hoang garnered 6.
Ms Le’s profile reached new heights last year when her bid to become Labor’s federal candidate for Fowler was thwarted by the captain’s pick arrival of former state premier Kristina Keneally.
She had looked to the southwest state seat as a potential comeback candidacy.”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/liverpool-leader/nsw-election-tri-vo-wins-alp-cabramatta-vote-tu-le-places-joint-last/news-story/d6aa5f9860c77accb70c3c509a4dc90d
Not really surprising given Tri Vo was already being talked about for this seat as early as 2018.
Well at least all preselection contenders were locals of Asian background which is much better than when outsider Kristina keneally was imposed as candidate for fowler.
Even if a high profile independent runs (which is unlikely given dai le is now out of the picture), Labor are still favourites to retain the seat.
It is a good outcome for Labor and the community. The Labor party seems to have learned it lesson from the KK debacle and not parachute an Anglo outsider. I doubt there will be an independent challenger but if there is i expect it to flop and there will be no repeat of the Fowler shock. Expect a swing to Labor and winning this sear on primaries.
@Nimalan this is a great start for the Labor Party, truly takes a disaster for them to finally learn their lesson. Hopefully the Libs also start improving their candidate selection to include more diverse non-European background candidates as well, particularly in their more diverse electorates.
One good thing about Labor having last-minute preselections for Cabramatta and Fairfield is it gives independents very little time to mobilise in case the preselected candidate is controversial or carries a lot of baggage. I’m not implying that Tri Vo is as bad or infamous as Kristina Keneally. I agree that the embarrassment and shock of the 2022 federal result in Fowler served as a lesson for the Labor establishment.
Labor will retain comfortably now that Dai Le is out of the fray.
Agree, Dan M. For the Libs in NSW seats they ought to choose diverse candidates in contestable seats such as Ryde, Parramatta, St George district seats, Strathfield etc. I can understand if they choose Anglo candidates in the Shire, Camden, Northern Beaches, Wollondilly Regional NSW etc but even a seat like Vauclause it would be better if they chose a Jewish candidate. For Federal Labor, i would say the seat they should focus on first is Werriwa since Anne Staley seems to be an underperforming MP and maybe choosing an Assyrian etc would be a good idea for that seat and increase the margin.
Also goes without saying that in other states and federally, both parties need to work in preselecting candidates of non-European backgrounds especially in the more diverse electorates and safe electorates as well rather than just unwinnable or marginal seats.
Prediction: ALP to independent. This seat will go along with Fairfield.
ineresting seat to watch labor vunerable here
Looks like this has been planned for a long time! And Carbone will support Kate to get Cabra out of ALP hands. If you look back at Council election last year, it is clear that Tri Vo was not able to hold any power in the Party, so he was only placed in position 4 in Parks Ward. (A position that is almost impossible to win). Yet he won big in this preselection. Especially when Courtney Nguyen is a completely unknown person and has suffered a terrible defeat in the last election and has given all votes to Dai Le. No one will be surprised to see Courtney put no. 2 votes for Kate Hoang this time. The difference is that voters are not forced to enter any other number other than 1.
Cabramatta and Fairfield will not be both lost to Labor. The factors of kkk parachute do not
Exist here. In a global sense Labor will poll better in both seats then they did at the federal election and council does not equal state votes
@Mick time will tell
Jeez this could be very costly for Labor. If Hoang (who has now officially declared) and Carbone both get up, that could cost them Government.
While both would side with the ALP in the event of a hung Parliament, other crossbenchers would look to favour the party that had the most seats in the first instance (as Windsor and Oakshott did in 2010). Having two less in the ALP column will really hurt them if this is the approach taken by Piper, Greenwich and co.
Word is that Frank Carbone has confirmed he will be running.
It is game on!
Whiy would tghe liberal backed Carbone winn the carbone 2gb Sky news anti laborusedthe high vietnamese population and the failure of hayes to parashute Tu le in to the seat as an excuse that labor was not deverse enogugh now a brance menber of the same background and because its not tu le carbone is atempting to help perottit hang on to power buy triying to take a seat of labour
Suprised Carbone will winn here he seems close to liberals and the big deal in fowler was that a vietnamese candadate was not running now labor has tri vo and carbone is still running to help perottit as tu le did not have support
@clyde oakshott and windsor sided with gillard cause they wanted a cabron tax
Doesn’t make much sense for Carbone to run here if Hoang is as an independent. All that would do is split the independent vote and Lib preferences plus under OPV comfortably hand the seat to Labor. He would be better off running in Fairfield.
Is he as conservative as Dai le or is it an alliance of convenience? Or do they hate the Tripodi group
Frank Carbone was a Labor mayor until 2016. In 2016, Fairfield Council (a non-amalgamated council) had elections. Nick Lalich, Guy Zangari and others alleged he was linked to property developers and wanted him out. He was then disendorsed and ran as an independent against an endorsed Labor candidate. Because of that, he got expelled. Dai Le, coincidentally, also got expelled for running as an independent against the Liberals. That’s how Frank allied with Dai.
Frank Carbone’s candidacy is perhaps the worst kept secret this election. It throws a spanner in the works and his name recognition and profile in local council are his key advantages.
Hoang and Carbone both registered to run for Cabramatta as independent now. It seems like Carbone already has a plan to wipe out Labor in this area. This is a very interesting election to watch, all three Vietnamese candidates and the popular mayor.
so hoang does not seem to bemuch of a labor suporter backed liberals in 2019 then labor now independent interestingly carbones brother ran on the no land tax party in 2015 carbone seems to want to help the liberals buy wiping out labor in fairfield but he will not chalinge bowen because he must be to popular only the koshabas remained loil to labor
@luna there is a difference between registering and nominating. they register so they can recieve political donations doesnt mean they are going to run