Barwon – NSW 2023

SFF 3.5% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Roy Butler (Independent), since 2019.

Geography
North-western NSW. Barwon is a massive seat, stretching from Broken Hill to Narrabri, and covering rural areas to the north of Dubbo. Barwon covers the entirety of thirteen local government areas: Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Broken Hill, Central Darling, Cobar, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Lachlan, Narrabri, Walgett, Warren and  Warrumbungle, as well as unincorporated territory between Central Darling and Broken Hill.

Redistribution
No change.

History
An electoral district named Barwon has existed since 1927. A previous incarnation existed from 1894 to 1904. Barwon has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since 1950.

The seat was first won by the Nationalist Party in 1927. The ALP held the seat from 1930 to 1932, and the Country Party held the seat from 1932 to 1940.

In 1940, the ALP’s Roy Heferen won the seat. He held it for the next decade. He was disendorsed for the 1950 election after he was suspected of having broken with the ALP and voted against the party line in a ballot to fill a vacancy in the Legislative Council in 1949. He ran as an independent, and the seat was won by the Country Party.

Geoff Crawford won the seat for the Country Party in 1950. He held the seat for eight terms, retiring in 1976. He also served as Minister for Agriculture from 1968 to 1975.

Wal Murray won the seat for the National Country Party in 1976. He became the party’s deputy leader in 1981, serving until 1984. In 1985, he was elected leader of the NSW National Party. He became Deputy Premier when the Coalition won power in 1988, and served in the role until 1993. He retired at the 1995 election.

Ian Slack-Smith held Barwon for the National Party from 1995 until his retirement in 2007. He was succeeded in 2007 by Kevin Humphries.

Kevin Humphries was re-elected in 2011 and 2015, but retired in 2019. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Roy Butler won Barwon at the 2019 election.

Butler resigned from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party in late 2022 after challenging SFF party leader Robert Borsak for the leadership at the party’s AGM. Fellow SFF lower house MP Phil Donato also quit the party at the same time.

Candidates

Assessment
This seat could well be in play, but there is a history of minor party and independent MPs strengthening their hold on the seat, and that seems quite plausible in Barwon.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Roy Butler Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 15,218 33.0 +33.0
Andrew Schier Nationals 14,027 30.4 -18.7
Darriea Turley Labor 9,661 20.9 -3.1
Phil Naden Independent 2,565 5.6 +5.6
Andrew Fleisher Liberal Democrats 1,571 3.4 +3.4
Leigh Williams Greens 1,395 3.0 -3.2
Owen Whyman Independent 735 1.6 +1.6
Jason Alan Animal Justice 558 1.2 +1.2
Maree Mcdonald-Pritchard Sustainable Australia 444 1.0 +1.0
Informal 1,701 3.6

2019 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Roy Butler Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 19,901 56.6
Andrew Schier Nationals 15,258 43.4

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Schier Nationals 16,483 52.5 -10.4
Darriea Turley Labor 14,904 47.5 +10.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Barwon have been split into four parts. Polling places in the city of Broken Hill have been grouped together, with the remainder split as follows:

  • Central – Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Central Darling and Cobar local government areas
  • North-East – Narrabri and Walgett local government areas
  • South-East – Coonamble, Gilgandra, Warren and Warrumbungle local government areas

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three out of four areas, narrowly winning in the south-east (50.7%) and the centre (53.6%), but winning a landslide 82.2% majority in Broken Hill. The Nationals polled 54.4% in the north-east.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging fro 12.8% in the north-east to 36.2% in Broken Hill.

Voter group ALP prim % SFF 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 14.5 50.7 6,366 13.8
North-East 12.8 45.6 5,860 12.7
Central 20.1 53.6 5,424 11.7
Broken Hill 36.2 82.2 5,228 11.3
Pre-poll 24.2 60.4 15,259 33.0
Other votes 16.3 49.6 8,037 17.4

Election results in Barwon at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers vs Nationals), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Nationals and Labor.

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61 COMMENTS

  2. Given the strength of the Nationals’ candidate, Annette Turner — former CWA President — compared to Schier in 2019, I would say this seat is back in play.

  3. SFF MPs told the Daily Telegraph (24/11/22) they had unanimously called on their leader, Robert Borsak, to stand aside and not recontest his LC seat. Roy Butler was touted as the potential leader but had not confirmed if he was interested. This has followed Helen Dalton’s (Murray MP) departure from the SFF.

  6. Going by the Vic results, I’d be worried if I was a non Nat in one of their traditional seats. “It’s a close election and the Shooters/independent will back Labor” may just resonate.

    I was completely shocked by Shepparton and Mildura so I don’t feel well informed to speculate on which of Butler, Donato, Dalton and McGirr are goners but I wouldn’t have given them a second look before.

  7. Donato and McGirr probably hold because of their margins. But I’d be very worried about Dalton because of the vote splitting and Butler would be in danger because that margin is smaller.

  9. Annette Turner seems quite strong although Roy Butler has the advantage of incumbency, however the SFF seems to have fallen apart. I don’t know about this one.

  10. I see Roy Butler as the most likely rural crossbencher to lose or end up with the lowest 2PP margin. The margin isn’t that high and he got in off the back of protest votes in 2019. He also has the least electioneering experience. Add to that, the SFF infighting.

    What could work in his favour are his incumbency and the anticipated statewide anti-LNP sentiment.

  12. The sff outpolled the nats by 3%
    It was not possible to catch up
    From behind esp given ldp was the only one possible to get preferences from. The flow alp to sff was better than the other way round. Now it is a fair bet that there will be a swing against the nats could be at least 3 to 6%. Chances of nat win are zero.. as I said most likely sff retain if not chance of alp win.

  13. The SFF tearing apart saga continues (As mentioned in Orange thread) but will also post article line here:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-10/nsw-shooters-fishers-and-farmers-party-re-endorse-rob-borsak/101757786

    The two key takeaways from this are:
    Rob Borsak survived the leadership challenge from Roy Butler at the SFF AGM, with ‘concessions’ made according to the article but not sure what. Despite that, key line here “”I’ve always said that I want to run with the SFF in 2023, that hasn’t changed, but I do want to improve things.”” So possible he could go IND.

    I currently have the following candidates running in Barwon:
    NAT – Annette Turner (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register/listed on party website)
    SFF?/IND? – Roy Butler (Source: ABC Article)

    Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: ALP, GRN, possible AJP, possible ONP
    LDP (3.4%) and SAP (1.0%) ran last time but wouldn’t expect them here again, only really to boost LegCo Vote.

    It’s a close margin here, and NATS lost 18% on primary alone last time. Previous commentators raise some valid points… it’ll all depend on Butler’s brand and how much damage is inflicted from the SFF saga. Looking at the VIC 2022 experience, the NATS managed to gain seats while the LIBS suffered, so the expected swing against the Coalition might be limited. Tough one to call so far but I’ll stick my neck out and say…
    2022 Prediction: Nat Gain

  14. wow Mick – Zero chance of Nats win. Thats big and brave.

    They have chosen a well connected local (ex CWA president) and this time around the dams are full and the farmers are doing very nicely. A stark contrast to Menindee lakes circa 2019. With Butler and Borzak at war, to suggest in an optional preferential system that the Nats are “no chance” is folly. Id say Butler slightly favored to retain.

  15. Look at the 2pp. 47.alp.53 nats
    This means an underlying very close vote. I suspect a swing. To Labor every where including here .

  16. Mick, I doubt Labor will gain a swing in rural districts because they are not popular in those areas. Even the federal election saw only negligible swing to Labor in rural areas, so it is still a close contest between the Nationals and SFF.

  17. To win sff needs to poll even with the nats and collect alp . preferences. They can even be
    Outpolled by the. Nats and.still
    Win there will be a big.bloc of
    Alp votes.which can and will.be
    Directed against the nats

  18. One thing to add about candidates from last time compared to this time, is that the ALP will be contending under that banner and not the Country Labor banner (with this party being de-registered since last election). The effect of this could be minimal to the ALP vote, but just something extra that adds to the regional races. I know a brave call for a Nat Gain, but Vic 2022 surprised me by just how strong they were gaining 3 seats. Still, 3 months to go and SFF might get their house organised, but the current publicity is far from helping.

  19. Agree PO, I would say Barwon and Murray are now highly competitive ‘toss-up’ seats instead of being favoured to be retained by their incumbents. Even Orange, which would have been safe SFF before the spectacular infighting/implosion, is now potentially in play.

    In fact, given the success of the Nationals in neighbouring Victoria, then Joe McGirr in Wagga Wagga could also be targeted, and he would need to expend resources to defend his seat. Although McGirr as a former doctor does have a higher profile compared to the SFF incumbents and the Victorian independents who were defeated in their seats.

  20. If the Nat could win 2 of the 4 above seats, then the ALP needs 11 seats for majority govt, and 6 for minority.

    Hard to see that happening in the present climate, although I suspect Mick Quinlivan has a list of about 25…..

  22. The gains for the nats in vic were relatively narrow in close margin seats before hand. Those +3 seats could potentially all be lost next election. Here I would not be sure of any gains
    The 3 sitting mps were effective effectively rural independents despite their party name. In nsw we have a different voting system which makes it difficult to win from behind but in all 3 seats the alp will finish behind both the sff and nats and alp preferences can be directed which can benefit anyone but the nats. If I as an alp voter lived in any of the 3 seats and knew I could not elect an alp mp I.would think very carefully and then extend my preferences and I would not vote for the nat

  23. Just worked out to win the nats
    May even need very close to an
    Absolute majority ie something
    Like 25 to 30 per cent primary
    Vote swing

  24. Fair point Mick, for Victoria the Nationals had an advantage for all three of their gains as there was a separate Liberal candidate who could poll at least 15-20% primary vote. Thus, the combined coalition vote would be at least 40% and that is the level the NSW Nationals need to achieve in order to win.

    Out of all the SFF held seats, Murray is probably the one most at risk as it is the most ‘rural’ of the three. Barwon contains Broken Hill which is quite a strong Labor leaning town and Orange has a larger 10%+ buffer.

  25. You An I agree I think there will be pro alp swing of 6% plus which may be muted in non Labor country areas
    I suspect all independents of the like of Mcgirr Grenwhich and piper will br relected. The new independents ex sff will also.be elected. Of the greens Labor has a chance in Balmain but greens favoured in the seats they currently hold.

  27. The National Party (nee Country Party, nee Progressive Party) are an anti-government protest party. When they are part of the government, it is hard to attract the anti-government protest voters.
    When was the last time the Nats gained a seat when already in government? I think it was Burrendong in 1973.

  29. watson watch –

    I can only assume there’s an implicit “in NSW state elections” on your question there about the Nats picking up a seat while in government. Otherwise, the Queensland state election in 1986 would like a word, for starters.

  31. This will be a very fractured vote. Alp gr sff official ind (exsff) nat.. there is outside chance of a alp win.. but most likely ind retain. The sff is least likely to win. The nats need either a huge swing on primary votes or preferences of alp and gr which is not likely. Also the 3 ex sff independents have positioned them selves as rural independents which is exactly what they are now.

  33. Strong Nat candidate with connection to Broken Hill, water in the rivers, ineffective SFF/Independent who spends most of his time living on a boat in Sydney but hiding that from his constituents.
    Predicted Nat gain.

  34. @ Clyde Mick reckons labor will get majority of the primary in lismore too he’s obv a labor groupie living in the clouds where labor is God’s gift to mankind

  35. Agree ben, many of Mick’s predictions are over exaggerated and too wildly inaccurate to be taken seriously.

  36. What I have predicted here is most probable ind retain.. i said there was an outside chance of an alp win.based on the 47% 2pp vote last election.
    Lismore I have predicted a certain alp retain. With a chance of an excellent result..the election day will show.. see which results hold. 2019 was much better for the liberals than 2023 will be. The point I have tried to make is Labor are likely to outpoll the liberals in primary votes.. there are many seats that are competitive for various reasons based on bad lib nat candidates.. the sins of their predecessor.. scandals. Losses of personal votes eg Ryde Parramatta. Good federal election results.. big swings due to the nature of the area eg Riverstone and Camden. NOW I have not claimed Labor will win all those seats but I would not be surprised if they won enough to form majority government. Some seats could be won by independents of various ilks.. esp on the North shore. It is possible Labor wins say Kiama and South Coast but misses out on Goulburn Oatley and upper Hunter this is the nature of the contest. Opv makes the contest much more complicated and if the liberals and nats fail to win to win a larger primary vote than Labor they cannot win.

  38. Mick’s comments on the Narracan by-election made me feel like he was pretty much taking the piss….

    Or else he’s like the Labor mirror image of a certain other poster: makes ridiculously exaggerated predictions for one party then claiming they did badly when they failed to meet such exaggerations.

  39. No it is not exaggerated, how do cons explain only a 2% margin against the ALP? Hmm..

    Independent hold, if the independent was to retire or pull out last minute, possible Labor gain because a 52-48 seat is marginal. And if the statewide swing is 4-5% it is more than enough to tip the seat over.

    Unless I’m missing something, why would the Nats improve on the TPP? This isn’t natural territory for Labor but the TPP does not lie.

    And the term “Good candidate” is always overused, wasn’t Andrew Constance supposed to have been a good candidate in Gilmore and what was the outcome there?

  40. I usually have a reason for what I predict.. i look at things first is a seat competitive .. if so against whom. Now look at my language carefully .. a claim that a seat is competitive does not mean I have claimed a liberal or national party loss. I have predicted it is possible. In this election in nsw the liberals and nats will probably poll less than 40 % of the primary vote as of course will Labor. Both combined will probably poll in the the range of 70 to 75%. This means there are 20 to 25% polled by others. Opv complicates this now as people have a choice of not extending preferences or partially extending preferences. From what I have seen from the 2019 election the only seats where preferences can be solid are Coogee Balina and Lismore. Now 2 things have happened since September 2022. Labor’s position has improved and labor appears to be either likely to either poll even with the coalition or marginally behind or infront. The coalition must out poll Labor in primary votes to win. Eg East Hills ignoring the Tania suppression of the alp vote. Last time the liberals outpolled Labor by 2% primary then Labor clawed back 1.5% so the liberal candidate won by 0.5% the boundary changes add 0.4 % to the alp vote. Now run the same sums but with Labor and liberal on 41 % each.. the same preferences would give Labor a win by about 2%.. it seems that the liberals will be unlikely to win

  41. Looking at TPP ALP v NAT it seems that in terms of preferences, ALP got about 900 extra votes and NAT got about 1200

    Seems most people put either SFF 1 only or didn’t preference the majors

    To me that seems like people who would normally vote NAT didn’t preference and if there was no SFF or strong IND then NAT would regain those votes

  42. Daniel T, when Independents or minor parties win a seat, it can significantly distort the underlying 2PP and essentially make it artificial.

    e.g. The federal division of Fowler is now ‘marginal’ with a 55-45 margin between Labor and the Libs. Does this mean it magically became much more Liberal in 2022, at an election where the Libs mostly went backwards? Or is a much more likely explanation just that the victory of Dai Le has massively screwed with the 2PP margin and made it basically a made-up number.

  43. @mick labor will not win barwon. not while the independant is around anyway they simply shed too many votes to the independant that puts the independant in the top 2 so it will be a nat v independat contest

  44. I’ve had it with the personal attacks, if you disagree with a prediction say that but don’t keep bringing up old stuff against the same person again and again. Last warning and then I will start blocking people.

  45. I don’t expect labor to win.. o said there was an outside chance. To cause this a official sff candidate would need to run and take substantial votes off the ex sff independent. A HIGHLY fractured vote could throw the seat to any one .. most likely is Mr Butler retains

  46. there is no chance of a labor victory the only way that would happen is if labor is the only one on the ballot

  47. @Mick as Mark explained independant often distort the 2pp vote. since it was sff v nats im pretty sure the sff had a preference deal with labor and that distorted the vote since votes for sff were counted towards labor but whether those votes actualy wwent to labor is anoher thing as they dont release the preferences of every vote its based on assumptions and the real 2pp was probably 65-35 at least

  48. ben,
    All HTVs and election material handed out by candidates and parties needs to be registered with the NSW Electoral Commission and is published on the Elections NSW website.
    In 2019, all of the SFF material recommended only first preference for SFF and no further preferences.
    If you are watching Deal or No Deal, it is definitely No Deal.

  50. The teal results federally in the 7 normally safe liberal seats they explain the value of the 2pp votes even though this was not the final result. The teals collected the votes of all those who prefer to vote against the liberals then added votes of their own which they took. Off normal liberal voters. This ranged up to 10 % in none of those seats did Labor beat the liberals as is shown by the 2pp vote

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