SFF 3.5% vs NAT
Incumbent MP
Roy Butler (Independent), since 2019.
Geography
North-western NSW. Barwon is a massive seat, stretching from Broken Hill to Narrabri, and covering rural areas to the north of Dubbo. Barwon covers the entirety of thirteen local government areas: Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Broken Hill, Central Darling, Cobar, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Lachlan, Narrabri, Walgett, Warren and Warrumbungle, as well as unincorporated territory between Central Darling and Broken Hill.
History
An electoral district named Barwon has existed since 1927. A previous incarnation existed from 1894 to 1904. Barwon has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since 1950.
The seat was first won by the Nationalist Party in 1927. The ALP held the seat from 1930 to 1932, and the Country Party held the seat from 1932 to 1940.
In 1940, the ALP’s Roy Heferen won the seat. He held it for the next decade. He was disendorsed for the 1950 election after he was suspected of having broken with the ALP and voted against the party line in a ballot to fill a vacancy in the Legislative Council in 1949. He ran as an independent, and the seat was won by the Country Party.
Geoff Crawford won the seat for the Country Party in 1950. He held the seat for eight terms, retiring in 1976. He also served as Minister for Agriculture from 1968 to 1975.
Wal Murray won the seat for the National Country Party in 1976. He became the party’s deputy leader in 1981, serving until 1984. In 1985, he was elected leader of the NSW National Party. He became Deputy Premier when the Coalition won power in 1988, and served in the role until 1993. He retired at the 1995 election.
Ian Slack-Smith held Barwon for the National Party from 1995 until his retirement in 2007. He was succeeded in 2007 by Kevin Humphries.
Kevin Humphries was re-elected in 2011 and 2015, but retired in 2019. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Roy Butler won Barwon at the 2019 election.
Butler resigned from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party in late 2022 after challenging SFF party leader Robert Borsak for the leadership at the party’s AGM. Fellow SFF lower house MP Phil Donato also quit the party at the same time.
- Joshua Roberts-Garnsey (Labor)
- Roy Butler (Independent)
- Annette Turner (Nationals)
- Paul Britton (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Thomas Mcbride (Public Education Party)
- Stuart Howe (Independent)
- Pat Schultz (Greens)
- Ben Hartley (Legalise Cannabis)
Assessment
This seat could well be in play, but there is a history of minor party and independent MPs strengthening their hold on the seat, and that seems quite plausible in Barwon.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Roy Butler | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 15,218 | 33.0 | +33.0 |
| Andrew Schier | Nationals | 14,027 | 30.4 | -18.7 |
| Darriea Turley | Labor | 9,661 | 20.9 | -3.1 |
| Phil Naden | Independent | 2,565 | 5.6 | +5.6 |
| Andrew Fleisher | Liberal Democrats | 1,571 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Leigh Williams | Greens | 1,395 | 3.0 | -3.2 |
| Owen Whyman | Independent | 735 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Jason Alan | Animal Justice | 558 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Maree Mcdonald-Pritchard | Sustainable Australia | 444 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 1,701 | 3.6 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Roy Butler | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 19,901 | 56.6 | |
| Andrew Schier | Nationals | 15,258 | 43.4 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Schier | Nationals | 16,483 | 52.5 | -10.4 |
| Darriea Turley | Labor | 14,904 | 47.5 | +10.4 |
Booths in Barwon have been split into four parts. Polling places in the city of Broken Hill have been grouped together, with the remainder split as follows:
- Central – Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Central Darling and Cobar local government areas
- North-East – Narrabri and Walgett local government areas
- South-East – Coonamble, Gilgandra, Warren and Warrumbungle local government areas
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three out of four areas, narrowly winning in the south-east (50.7%) and the centre (53.6%), but winning a landslide 82.2% majority in Broken Hill. The Nationals polled 54.4% in the north-east.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging fro 12.8% in the north-east to 36.2% in Broken Hill.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | SFF 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 14.5 | 50.7 | 6,366 | 13.8 |
| North-East | 12.8 | 45.6 | 5,860 | 12.7 |
| Central | 20.1 | 53.6 | 5,424 | 11.7 |
| Broken Hill | 36.2 | 82.2 | 5,228 | 11.3 |
| Pre-poll | 24.2 | 60.4 | 15,259 | 33.0 |
| Other votes | 16.3 | 49.6 | 8,037 | 17.4 |
Election results in Barwon at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers vs Nationals), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Nationals and Labor.
Because federally there is full preference voting. In NSW it is optional meaning some get exhausted
A few comments on this one to address recent posts.
The ALP won’t win. Their candidate in 2019 was Darriea Turley, the popular Mayor of Broken Hill (traditional ALP stronghold), and she polled a relatively disappointing 20% primary. Their candidate in 2023 is a teacher who lives in Narrabri but has only lived in the electorate for a few years. He will struggle to get 10% primary.
The NAT candidate lives in White Cliffs but is 3rd generation Broken Hill born and bred. The NAT vote will rise in Broken Hill for that reason and the absence of the ALP Mayor.
That said, I expect the IND to hold as he’s got a good following and I can see him picking up ALP voters who will support him ahead of the weaker ALP candidate.
Agree with Mark Mulcair, when calculating a notional TPP in a non classic contest, the presence of a third party/independent can skew the notional TPP result/swing. For example, Fowler did record the biggest notional TPP swing to Libs even though that is meaningless as Liberal primary also crashed as Liberal supporters tactically voted for Dai Le to defeat Labor. In Mayo, ALP won the notional TPP against Lib even though they ran third and never came closing to winning it. In non-classical contests the size of the major party primary vote affects the Notional TPP for example a very low Liberal primary in Warringah meant the Libs only narrowly won the TPP compared to neighbouring Mackellar.
I was in Broken Hill a few weeks back. Consensus was that Roy Butler would win again. He does have a high profile in the area.
given that broken hill is a labor stronghold i wouldnt take that as fact. Barwon is most defeinately in play.
70% voted against the nat but only 5% at most were likely to preference the nats. If no sff candidate runs.. how does the nat candidate get enough extra votes. This 2pp vote is similar to the North shore at the federal election.. the gap between Mr Butler and the nat was only 3 % but given there is a swing in nsw blunt it.. and it it I’d possible that the nats poll 27 or 28% if so nats cannot win. Even with a huge exhaust rate. I would say the nats have a better chance then Labor but each in reality has a minimal chance of a win probable Roy. Butler hold.
@mick given that there are currently only 3 candidates instead of 9 like las time picking up 6.6% of the 2PP wont be that hard given that 15.7% of the primary vote is up for grabs assuming he doesnt shed any votes from people who voted SFF
the swing will be against the Liberals. the nats dont always get the same swing if any
Genuine three way (maybe even 4 way) contest now that Butler, SFF and the NAT will be all vying for the same ~65-70% of the vote. I personally expect SFF’s vote to be back closer to 10% this time. If there is a ridiculous exhaust-rate because of the continual insistence of “Vote 1” recommendations… one possibility is that Labor manages to do a Bradbury into 2CP on the back of their disciplined Broken Hill support base. I do think Butler has got it.
Regardless going to be a fun one to watch on election night.
At least according to their registrations, the SFF candidates in Barwon and Murray both live in suburban Sydney. For that reason, it’s very hard for me to rate their candidacies as serious; not only is the “true voice of the regions” message from last election hard to swing when your candidate lives in Strathfield, the fact that they couldn’t find anyone local to nominate suggests they might have difficulties getting local volunteers for campaigning. Add to that the fact that Roy Butler wasn’t elected by some preexisting SFF voter base – SFF contested the seat for the first time in 2019 – so there’s no reason to assume those voters will stay with the party name. I think under the circumstances SFF will be extremely lucky to get as high as 10% and I interpret their running here and in Murray as spite/spoiler candidacies to take revenge on wayward ex-members.
@seq im guessing that labor vote will fracture even further due to a local sitting independant labor no chance here. butler and nats wont drop below 20%