GRN 10.0% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Jamie Parker, since 2011.
Geography
Inner Sydney. Balmain covers the entirety of Leichhardt local government area, including Balmain, Leichhardt, Lilyfield, Annandale and Rozelle, as well as Glebe and part of Ultimo in the City of Sydney.
History
Balmain has existed as an electoral district in various forms since 1880. In that time it has covered a variety of different areas all around the Balmain peninsula. The original seat was created as a single-member district in 1880.
Back in the 19th century, districts would gain extra MPs if the population in the area grew, instead of experiencing regular redistributions. Balmain quickly gained extra MLAs, gaining a second in 1882, a third in 1885 and a fourth in 1889. Ironically the four-seat district of 1889 bore a close resemblance to the modern seat’s boundaries.
In 1894, Balmain was abolished and replaced by the single-member districts of South Balmain, North Balmain, Leichhardt and Annandale.
In 1904, Balmain was re-created when Balmain Southand Balmain Northwere merged. It elected a Liberal MP in 1904, but in 1907 it was won by the ALP’s John Storey in 1907. He had previously held Balmain Northfrom 1901 to 1904.
The NSW Labor Party split in 1916 over conscription, with most of the Holman government, including William Holman itself, expelled. Storey became leader of the remnants of the ALP in 1917.
In the lead-up to the 1920 election the seat of Balmain was expanded to cover parts of the neighbouring seats of Annandale, Camperdown, Darling Harbour, Glebe and Rozelle, and became a five-member district elected by proportional representation.
At the 1920 election, the expanded Balmain elected four Labor members and one Nationalist. The ALP won a slim majority, and Storey became Premier. He served until his death in 1921.
Balmain elected three Labor and two Nationalist MPs in 1922, and again elected four Labor members in 1925.
The 1927 election saw a return to single-member districts, and Balmain reduced to a smaller single-member district. At that year’s election, the official Labor candidate, Harry Doran, was challenged by sitting Labor MLA HV Evatt, who had been elected as a member for the multi-member Balmain district in 1925. Evatt won re-election as an independent Labor candidate.
In 1930, Evatt was appointed to the High Court and didn’t contest Balmain. John Quirk, whose neighbouring seat of Rozelle had been abolished in the redistribution, was elected in Balmain for the ALP. Evatt later went on to serve as a federal MP, federal minister, and leader of the federal ALP from 1951 to 1960.
Quirk died in 1938, and the 1939 Balmain by-election was won by his wife Mary. She held the seat until 1950, when she ran as an independent after losing Labor preselection. She lost to official Labor candidate John McMahon.
McMahon served as a minister in the Labor government from 1959 until the government lost power in 1965, and he retired in 1968.
Roger Degen held Balmain for the ALP from 1968 until his retirement in 1984. That year the seat was won by Peter Crawford.
In 1988, Crawford lost Balmain to former Olympic swimmer Dawn Fraser, running as an independent and ending over 80 years of Labor domination in Balmain.
Fraser held the seat for one term. In 1991, Balmain was abolished, and Fraser was defeated in an attempt to win the new seat of Port Jackson.
Port Jackson was won in 1991 by Sandra Nori of the ALP. Nori held the seat until 2007. In 2003, Port Jackson was the main target for the Greens, with Jamie Parker reducing Nori’s margin to 7.3%.
In 2007, Port Jackson was again renamed Balmain, and shifted west to lose Ultimo, Pyrmont and Sydney CBD and gained Haberfield. Nori retired, and the ALP preselected City of Sydney councillor Verity Firth. Greens councillor Rochelle Porteous reduced the ALP margin to 3.8%.
In 2011, Firth lost Balmain to Greens candidate Jamie Parker. The Liberal candidate came first on primary votes, with Parker narrowly outpolling Firth and winning the seat on her preferences. Parker was more comfortably re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Greens MP Jamie Parker is not running for re-election.
- Stephen Bisgrove (Sustainable Australia)
- Philippa Scott (Labor)
- Kobi Shetty (Greens)
- Glen Stelzer (Public Education Party)
- Freya Leach (Liberal)
Assessment
Balmain was reasonably safe for the sitting member. It’s an open question how much of his margin is a personal vote as opposed to a more general support for the Greens.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jamie Parker | Greens | 21,065 | 42.7 | +5.3 |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 14,227 | 28.9 | -2.9 |
| Wenjie (Ben) Zhang | Liberal | 9,875 | 20.0 | -4.9 |
| Emilia Leonetti | Keep Sydney Open | 2,268 | 4.6 | +4.6 |
| Anita Finlayson | Animal Justice | 1,103 | 2.2 | +0.3 |
| Angela Dunnett | Sustainable Australia | 761 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 781 | 1.6 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jamie Parker | Greens | 24,074 | 60.0 | +5.3 |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 16,037 | 40.0 | -5.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 28,127 | 70.5 | +4.7 |
| Wenjie (Ben) Zhang | Liberal | 11,795 | 29.5 | -4.7 |
Booths in Balmain have been split into three areas, named after the key suburbs of Balmain, Leichhardt and Glebe. Lilyfield and Annandale have been grouped with Leichhardt, Birchgrove and Rozelle have been grouped with Balmain, and Forest Lodge and Ultimo have been grouped with Glebe.
The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.7% in Leichhardt to 61.8% in Balmain.
The Liberal Party came third, with a vote ranging from 17.3% in Glebe to 22.1% in Balmain.
| Voter group | LIB prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Leichhardt | 18.7 | 60.7 | 12,223 | 24.8 |
| Balmain | 22.1 | 61.8 | 9,795 | 19.9 |
| Glebe | 17.3 | 60.9 | 7,706 | 15.6 |
| Other votes | 22.1 | 59.0 | 10,675 | 21.7 |
| Pre-poll | 19.6 | 57.6 | 8,900 | 18.1 |
Election results in Balmain at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal Party.
The Libs could still have run a better candidate, you folks are missing the point here.
It’s not about winning, it’s about getting as many votes as possible, more votes means higher percentage of the vote statewide, more funding for the party, high vote also helps the party in the upper house. Same federally, it helps for the senate vote.
There’s absolutely no reason for the Liberals to run a bad candidate and a candidate that is even younger than my 21 years.
Nats should run here to give an alternative to coalition supporters. And I’m so sorry for a Liberal voter since Malcolm Fraser is disgusted by the candidate here, I would be as well!
A young person wanting to get involved and have a go. Why not? Good on them, I say. A local resident, so it makes sense that she is running in her own community. I haven’t seen any evidence that Freya Leach is a “bad candidate.”
Whats the issue? Labor have been running ‘youngsters’ in impossible seats for years – and in Brighton 2018 they almost won.
Happens at the other end of the age spectrum too – John Kennedy in Hawthorn in 2018 or Peter Lynch in Kooyong 2022. As the major parties become hollowed out it will become more common.
Preselections are more competitive in seats that are their own or marginally-held by their opponents. I doubt there were a dozen Liberals fighting for preselection in Balmain. We can all but guarantee the Liberals will come third in Balmain.
I’m not implying that Freya Leach is a bad candidate but the Liberals have more important seats to win or sandbag and will channel their resources accordingly, just like the other parties would in seats that they see themselves as competitive in.
If Freya Leach wants a political career then it will be on the job training. In the UK it is part of the political ladder to contest an impossible seat. And if you do reasonably you get noticed.
I strongly disagree with the suggestion that the Liberal Party could’ve found a better candidate. It’s a big commitment asking someone to be a candidate – you’re nailing your colours to the mast, lots of people have jobs that make it impossible, etc.
You’re not going to get a good selection of candidates for the Liberal Party in a place like Balmain, especially at an election like this where they’re on a downward trend. How much effort should the party put in before just picking someone young and loyal to give them some experience? I really think Daniel you are exaggerating the benefits for them of a more credible candidate in Balmain.
I see Labor has announced ferry upgrades in Balmain and Drummoyne. I wonder if the announcement suggests they think there in a good chance in Balmain. The commentary in the media on this seat has been reasonably quiet. The suggestion that Labor ‘is in a tight battle to regain the seat of Balmain’ doesn’t completely hand it over to the Greens.
There is alot riding on this seat for Labor. If Labor loses it may be a gloomy indicator from regaining seats from the Greens elsewhere when their Mp’s retire. However I will acknowledge that the types of elections (landslaides, Cliffhangers etc) and also the types of seats of Greens seats (former leftwing Labor seats, Liberal doctor wives seats) also a factors.
Labor’s pledged upgrade to ferry services comes as it seeks regain two key seats of Drummoyne and Balmain, vacated by John Sidoti and Greens MP Jamie Parker respectively.
In Drummoyne, Labor candidate Julia Little is competing against Liberal candidate Stephanie Di Pasqua, the current deputy mayor of Canada Bay Council.
While Labor’s Philippa Scott is in a tight battle to regain the seat of Balmain from The Greens, which has put forward Kobi Shetty as its candidate.
Both Labor candidates echoed Ms Haylen’s comments about the upgraded ferry services improving transport options for Inner West residents.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/nsw-state-election-labor-pledges-ferry-upgrades-in-balmain-and-drummoyne/news-story/3308c485c82d10a94a779e5b54ead5df#share-tools
Having lived in this electorate for many years until just recently, my view is that it’s next political evolution is from green to blue, potentially an independent variant of blue. Won’t be for another ten years or so, but it won’t go back to red.
The old school Balmain Labor voters are slowly moving on (passing away) or moving out and the class of voters moving in is very much the north shore wanting a slice of the inner west, but still needing to be by the harbour – kind of vibe. The Greens appeal to them because they are the DA blocking kind of person, not the radical lefty wanting to protest about anything/everything kind of person. Don’t be surprised to find that many of Jamie Parker’s strongest supporters are also stringently against any changes to the taxpayer subsidisation of uber-sized super accounts.
Labor tries here because it has to. So much of its history is here, but the old union halls around the former docks getting converted into upmarket residential and office properties is pretty emblematic of how the place has moved on.
I’m curious to see just how much of an impact Parker’s resignation has on the primary votes here, and that of the lower to medium profile Liberal candidate actually giving it a red hot go. I think that Labor’s primary will stay stagnant, unsure about the others…
I agree with Darren. Have a walk around Ballast Point, and take note of the homes with Greens posters on display! I’ve noticed a spurt of Liberal posters along Darling Street this afternoon, late to the party as usual. And, if you know where to look, there’s even a house in Birchgrove sporting a One Nation poster!! (Replacing their long-standing ‘say no to the new world order’ poster, lol). Who says we’re not a diverse bunch!? 😉
Rumour has it that when it was known that Parker would be stepping down, Scott who was already preselected was then asked to stand aside (don’t know who for) but she dug her heals in and refused. The “Let’s put Balmain in government” slogan seems like a bit of a disconnect, yeah mebbe if it was more working class area, but what is Balmain working class these days?
Meanwhile campaign littered with selfies of visits to local cafes and shops which is fine, but not Leichhardt Municiple Cafe, pity the owner looks like such a staunch labor insider.
Scott also made a beat up of a petition campaign pretending to “save Glebe markets”.
while over in Leichhardt ignores the things that appear to be too hard baskets like Norton st decline and the Italian forum, toes the Labor line about the pokies cashless gaming card, and like to throw in that Jamie Parker does nothing, sounds like a great way to get votes. And as a councillor Literally acts like Darcy 2.0, don’t get me started on how lovely and progressive she behaves there. Jo Haylen is currently pretending t happy smiles with Scott for the election 🤮
Long time resident, first time poster. Laughing at the Liberals late rush to put posters up on Norton St. Prime spots were taken years ago so all that’s left is within graffiti distance (not even a mild stretch needed). Young Freya has been quite improved by a local Da Vinci applying Groucho Marx ad-ons.
I can second to seeing the defaced Freya corflute on Norton Street, it’s been like that for nearly a week now. I was waiting at a bus stop late the other night and a group of skateboarders flew passed taking probably a dozen Liberal corflutes too, they were really late to the game and they’re running a lame duck campaign but you can’t expect much from them in a seat like this.
Labor are going pretty hard here, I’ve been getting seat based polls probably once every fortnight since January although with nothing being published online I’m inclined to think they’re done by political parties. There’s a consensus that it’s close but I’m less convinced Labor will win by the day, it’s the wrong demographic north of Victoria Road and certain vote-winning issues such as deamalgamation are left untouched.
Green hold, Labor will rise at the expense of the Liberals but the Green vote will remain moreorless constant
Agreed. Labor won’t win this one. I’d love to see them take the seat back but there’s too many nimbys with multi million dollar properties. They’d be liberals anywhere else but here are the Greens core constituency. I doubt it will be a 10% margin for Shetty but a comfortable victory nonetheless. All she needs to do is guarantee to do nothing, except for promise pie in the sky stuff (Parra road light rail anyone?) which the Greens political party can’t and won’t deliver.
A wild card is Lidia Thorpe versus the Greens. The nimbys don’t like that at all.
@Korben once a Left leaning seat goes green it never goes back. opposition parties rarely lose seats.
@ben If Scott was campaigning more effectively it might be different. They really should be targeting the hell out of the Parker-Albanese voters. Specifically driving home that the Greens political party have delivered little in the 12 years representing the seat, and never will deliver anything of substance with only petitions, protests and placards. There are so many state government level issues that just haven’t been effectively raised and solved in my 20 years here eg. Pedestrian crossings on state roads being death traps. An effective local member would get results. But there’s a lot of folks here who value warm fuzzies above outcomes.
@korben yes and thats the reason they elected a greens member because the labor govt obviously didnt deliver either
@ben Parker and his Greens political party have “represented” Balmain for 12 years with no results. Surely your mob is accountable for that? Not a “whattaboutism” or “but Labor” thing. 12 years is a long time without achievement.
@Ben Yes and 12 years of non achievement by Parker and the Greens political party shouldn’t be rewarded. Posters petitions and protests haven’t got it done. Personal responsibility.
@Korben
I’m also a long-term resident here and generally vote ALP or Greens depending on the election. Jamie’s office were proactive with the two issues I’ve contacted them about over the years. He’s also been very active with my youngest’s school.
You come across like a really rusted on Labor fan and that’s fine but the whole ‘The Greens Political Party’ trope is a well and truly flogged out horse. They are indeed a party, is that really a conspiracy?
Campaign on values and policies, not with petty and entitled aggressions.
because labor did so much before them? thats why
@JST Your experience is your business my experience is that Parker had not delivered – strong on the posturing and weak on delivery. Criticising the accurate reference to Greens being a political party doesn’t change that (and why does the truth set you folks off?). Vote Greens if you want. 12 years of serial non delivery will become 16. Don’t complain when it impacts you.
Could we keep these forums to actual election analysis and not who we’re all voting for?
@daniel I’m not voting for anyone
Sorry Ben, that wasn’t directed at anyone in particular, just a general thought
@daniel good point. Food for thought for Greens political party voters in Balmain. Wonder how it will impact their vote? https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-nobody-s-little-black-girl-thorpe-claims-green-patted-her-on-the-head-in-the-senate-20230310-p5cr6f.html
Korben, not that I want to engage, but that article also claims that she was harassed by Labor & Coalition members of parliament as well.
@daniel I know I was just saying.
@Korben
If you read my post you’ll see it doesn’t bother anyone at all, which is why I find it strange that Labor hacks keep trumping it.
Also, my anecdotal evidence is just as valid as yours. There’s no need to be so dismissive.
Again, I am not a Greens member/vol/etc. I voted ALP at the fed election. I am simply appealing that you ought to turn down the ferocity of your rhetoric. It turns people off whatever it is you’re trying to say. Which is exactly why I’m not backing Scott this time.
turns out theboth main candadates hear serve on local cowncil bothscott as deputy mayor and sheddey as a greens cowncil
Funny that the Liberal posters in Norton Street are being graffiti’d etc. Obviously up here in Balmain we’re a gentler sort – all those Liberal posters temptingly placed at ground level… weeks later they’re still in place, and untouched!
isnt norton street in Balmain?
I was referring to the suburb of Balmain, not the seat! The Liberal posters around Darling Street Balmain are untouched.
Anthony Albanese and Chris Minns were campaigning in the seat of Balmain today. Which indicates Labor still think their in with a chance. Doesn’t hurt Balmain is part Albanese’s federal seat of Grayndler also.
Which the greens have been competing for so no chance in Balmain. Wasting political capital.
Which the greens have been competing for so no chance in Balmain. Wasting political capital.
Greens are the favorites but I don’t understand your rationale or analysis. Greens are competing in other seats as well doesn’t mean their going to win there. It was announced Labor have committed a high school to be built in the area. They obviously think they have a better chance here with no incumbent then other seats.
By competing for I mean grayndler they do pretty well on the the 2pp so having albo doesn’t translate to votes especially when you get the people who hate the nuclear subs deal and stuff he’s done. Coalition will most likely tactical vote here. Greens are pretty hard to unseat and often increase their vote. They will get the high school regardless because they will only get it if labor get into government. Regardless of who gets I here they will get it. either labor majority or labor minority will do it and labor minority means the local member can strike a better deal.
By competing for I mean grayndler they do pretty well on the the 2pp so having albo doesn’t translate to votes especially when you get the people who hate the nuclear subs deal and stuff he’s done. Coalition will most likely tactical vote here. Greens are pretty hard to unseat and often increase their vote. They will get the high school regardless because they will only get it if labor get into government. Regardless of who gets I here they will get it. either labor majority or labor minority will do it and labor minority means the local member can strike a better deal.
Coaltion tactical voting? What you mean they will vote Liberal and preference Greens? I doubt there will be tactical voting by the Liberals. That traditional Liberal voter hate the Greens more then Labor. I will acknowledge there is a section of Liberals that are that doctors wife vote who are sympathic with the Greens on social and environmental issues. The general Liberal voter will more likely will just follow their how to vote card. Your point about Greens are hard to unseat and increase their vote is somewhat irrelevant. That only happens in cases of incumbency which this seat is not. If the Greens win which I acknowledge they are the favorite. I generally think its a sound prediction their margin will decrease but they may still hold on to the seat.
I’d like to think Labor was a serious chance of winning Balmain back but I’m not getting the vibe. Scott’s campaign has been low key and haven’t seen a serious effort to target the Albanese-Parker voters. Also made amateurish mistakes like the P&C grant. As much as I dislike the Greens due to their ineffectiveness and disinterest in delivery, they have tied Shetty to Parker to try and create a sense of continuity. I have no doubt the serial non delivery will continue so they are on to something.
Suspect Greens will lead again in primaries and win TPP with a comfortable margin. Main wildcard is how much the Lib vote will decrease and where it will go.
Also for locals – keep clear of the Leichhardt town hall. Prepoll has kicked off and the footpath is packed tighter than a rugby scrum with candidates and their supporters. Some of us are just trying to go for a walk!
“Parker and his Greens political party have “represented” Balmain for 12 years with no results. Surely your mob is accountable for that? Not a “whattaboutism” or “but Labor” thing. 12 years is a long time without achievement.”
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By this flawed logic, every seat held by NSW Labor for the last 12 years has received “no results” by voting for them, simply because they haven’t been in government either.
The voters of Balmain will get much more bang for their buck with a strong outspoken Greens representative who won’t take them for granted than they would with a Laborite who will just tow the line of the NSW Labor Right, whether they are in government or not. Further, if it is to be a minority government, a Greens held Balmain will receive far more attention than it would if it’s just making up the numbers in the Labor backbench.
The Greens in government achieve great results for the community, as was seen during the Gillard gov when the Greens secured the passage of their ETS which Adam Bandt took to the 2010 Election – the first time the federal gov took serious action to tackle the climate emergency. Another example of the Greens delivering in that minority gov was getting Medicare covered dental for millions of kids – an achievement which survived the disastrous Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison era and has endured to this day.
Countless examples of the Greens delivering in minority government can also be seen in the current ACT Greens/Labor government, which is the longest running government in the entire country. Minority government works and delivers real results for the people.
If you’d like to know what Jamie Parker has been able to achieve for the people of Balmain as their MP. check out his valedictory speech where he lists off as many of them as he can in the space of 20 mins (there’s quite a lot): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljcBvy6kf4M
@firefox Bless your heart. It takes special courage to argue against Whattaboutism by offering… wait for it… Whattaboutism.
I’m getting the impression from the electors of Balmain that Jamie Parker’s personal vote drove a significant amount of Greens support. Now that Parker is on his way out there is a heightened interest in backing Labor for a number of reasons.
1. People are tired of the Coalition and see voting Labor as the clearest way of shoring up their removal from government. Labor are playing this up with their billboards throughout the Inner-West.
2. Albanese as Prime Minister in overlapping Grayndler is having a rally around the flag effect. Providing a bit injection of morale in Labor support. Hence why Minns has been out campaigning with Albanese around Grayndler.
3. The perception of Greens “instability” as part of the the recent Thorpe saga might turn off some of the more tentative Greens voters.
For these reasons I’ve identified, I believe Balmain is the most vulnerable to be lost by the Greens on election day. Might be a very slim margin on Greens vs Labor 2CP. Ballina is second most vulnerable but I do no expect much change there in the vote.
Watch the western edge of the division around Leichhardt (where Parker was once mayor) to see booth swings on election day play out.
Really can’t see voters caring more about Lidia Thorpe than, say, rent, cost of living, AUKUS or just about anything else. Minns isn’t particularly popular, least of all with progressives. If Labor do win here it will be because they poured resources into it while the Greens were complacent.
“@firefox Bless your heart. It takes special courage to argue against Whattaboutism by offering… wait for it… Whattaboutism.”
***
I wasn’t arguing against “Whattaboutism”, I was pointing out the deeply flawed nature of your argument. What’s wrong with applying your same flawed logic to all parties? Why do you think there should be one standard applied to the Greens and a totally different one applied to Labor? That’s not how democracy works.
“I’m getting the impression from the electors of Balmain that Jamie Parker’s personal vote drove a significant amount of Greens support. Now that Parker is on his way out there is a heightened interest in backing Labor for a number of reasons.”
***
Jamie would have some personal vote for sure but most of his support would be due to his policies – the policies of the Greens. The Greens vote in Balmain before Parker came along was already at 29.5% (Rochelle Porteous’s primary for the Greens in Balmain at the 2007 Election). The Greens were already performing very strongly in Balmain before Jamie Parker increased it to 30.7 in 2010 when he won the seat for the first time.
1. People are certainly tired of the Coalition and the current NSW gov deserves the boot, but that’s certainly not a reason to give your vote to Liberal-lite Labor, especially not when there are better alternatives that will also ensure the Coalition are removed. There is no stronger way to vote against the Coalition than voting for the Greens. No party opposes the Coalition as strongly or as consistently as the Greens do. If someone wants to make an emphatic vote against the Coalition, voting Greens is the best way to do it.
2. Albanese as PM has been lackluster to say the least. That may have helped had the NSW Election occurred before the Federal Election but not now. What exactly would they be rallying around the flag for either? I think people are far more worried about tackling inequality and taking serious action to address the climate emergency, which Albanese and his government are making far worse with their tax cuts for the rich and continued commitment to coal and gas.
3. Wishful thinking. The right have long pretended that the Greens are falling apart – they’ve been predicting it for decades yet they continue to go from strength to strength. Besides, I think the votes of NSW in general are far more likely to be wary of voting for Labor as they have been for many elections due to the complete disaster that was the last NSW Labor gov – Eddie Obied and co. That stench is fading with time but it has certainly been a factor in previous elections. The question is if people have had enough of the Libs and the Nazi cosplayer Domicron to give Labor another chance yet. Kristina Keneally’s performance in Fowler at the Federal Election – blowing a large margin and handing a once safe Labor seat to an independent – would suggest that many voters have long memories. Thankfully, we don’t have to pick between the two parties of the establishment, so aren’t forced to settle for the lesser of two evils.
@ Firefox I think on balance the Greens will win it the only reason I am being cautious here is this is the first time in history that a Greens who won in a general election in a single member seat is retiring. I think it maybe like Indi in 2019 where Greens hold narrowly against Labor but build up the margin again the following election. Labor campaigning here benefits the Libs the more resources they burn here will mean less for Ryde South Coast and Kiama seats they need for majority government
Labor campaigning here benefits the Libs the more resources they burn here will mean less for Ryde South Coast and Kiama seats they need for majority government
Remember though Labor have better odds here then they do with Kiama or South Coast. It’s true that betting odds don’t mean everything. But I guess I’ve seen the suggestion Labor’s a chance in Kiama and completely no chance in Balmain and are wasting their resources. Which considering there is no incumbent and its former safe Labor seat. I think its a bit incredulous just to expect Labor to run dead and not have a crack.
Correct me if I am wrong but when Thorpe got caught up in the bikie saga, the following VIC election had f*** all of an impact on the Green vote anywhere (except Northcote). Wikipedia says Greens got a positive PRIMARY swing in Richmond, Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray (and this is with Socialists also getting good swings to them. Also this accounts for redistribution.
According poll bludger Liberals have registered two sets of how-to-vote cards for Balmain, one recommending a first preference for the Liberal candidate only, the other a preference to Greens ahead of Labor. Really hard to see Labor are a chance here if the Liberals are preferencing the Greens. Labor probably would rely more on preferences in this seat as the Greens are likely to get the bigger primary vote in my opinion.