GRN 10.0% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Jamie Parker, since 2011.
Geography
Inner Sydney. Balmain covers the entirety of Leichhardt local government area, including Balmain, Leichhardt, Lilyfield, Annandale and Rozelle, as well as Glebe and part of Ultimo in the City of Sydney.
History
Balmain has existed as an electoral district in various forms since 1880. In that time it has covered a variety of different areas all around the Balmain peninsula. The original seat was created as a single-member district in 1880.
Back in the 19th century, districts would gain extra MPs if the population in the area grew, instead of experiencing regular redistributions. Balmain quickly gained extra MLAs, gaining a second in 1882, a third in 1885 and a fourth in 1889. Ironically the four-seat district of 1889 bore a close resemblance to the modern seat’s boundaries.
In 1894, Balmain was abolished and replaced by the single-member districts of South Balmain, North Balmain, Leichhardt and Annandale.
In 1904, Balmain was re-created when Balmain Southand Balmain Northwere merged. It elected a Liberal MP in 1904, but in 1907 it was won by the ALP’s John Storey in 1907. He had previously held Balmain Northfrom 1901 to 1904.
The NSW Labor Party split in 1916 over conscription, with most of the Holman government, including William Holman itself, expelled. Storey became leader of the remnants of the ALP in 1917.
In the lead-up to the 1920 election the seat of Balmain was expanded to cover parts of the neighbouring seats of Annandale, Camperdown, Darling Harbour, Glebe and Rozelle, and became a five-member district elected by proportional representation.
At the 1920 election, the expanded Balmain elected four Labor members and one Nationalist. The ALP won a slim majority, and Storey became Premier. He served until his death in 1921.
Balmain elected three Labor and two Nationalist MPs in 1922, and again elected four Labor members in 1925.
The 1927 election saw a return to single-member districts, and Balmain reduced to a smaller single-member district. At that year’s election, the official Labor candidate, Harry Doran, was challenged by sitting Labor MLA HV Evatt, who had been elected as a member for the multi-member Balmain district in 1925. Evatt won re-election as an independent Labor candidate.
In 1930, Evatt was appointed to the High Court and didn’t contest Balmain. John Quirk, whose neighbouring seat of Rozelle had been abolished in the redistribution, was elected in Balmain for the ALP. Evatt later went on to serve as a federal MP, federal minister, and leader of the federal ALP from 1951 to 1960.
Quirk died in 1938, and the 1939 Balmain by-election was won by his wife Mary. She held the seat until 1950, when she ran as an independent after losing Labor preselection. She lost to official Labor candidate John McMahon.
McMahon served as a minister in the Labor government from 1959 until the government lost power in 1965, and he retired in 1968.
Roger Degen held Balmain for the ALP from 1968 until his retirement in 1984. That year the seat was won by Peter Crawford.
In 1988, Crawford lost Balmain to former Olympic swimmer Dawn Fraser, running as an independent and ending over 80 years of Labor domination in Balmain.
Fraser held the seat for one term. In 1991, Balmain was abolished, and Fraser was defeated in an attempt to win the new seat of Port Jackson.
Port Jackson was won in 1991 by Sandra Nori of the ALP. Nori held the seat until 2007. In 2003, Port Jackson was the main target for the Greens, with Jamie Parker reducing Nori’s margin to 7.3%.
In 2007, Port Jackson was again renamed Balmain, and shifted west to lose Ultimo, Pyrmont and Sydney CBD and gained Haberfield. Nori retired, and the ALP preselected City of Sydney councillor Verity Firth. Greens councillor Rochelle Porteous reduced the ALP margin to 3.8%.
In 2011, Firth lost Balmain to Greens candidate Jamie Parker. The Liberal candidate came first on primary votes, with Parker narrowly outpolling Firth and winning the seat on her preferences. Parker was more comfortably re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Greens MP Jamie Parker is not running for re-election.
- Stephen Bisgrove (Sustainable Australia)
- Philippa Scott (Labor)
- Kobi Shetty (Greens)
- Glen Stelzer (Public Education Party)
- Freya Leach (Liberal)
Assessment
Balmain was reasonably safe for the sitting member. It’s an open question how much of his margin is a personal vote as opposed to a more general support for the Greens.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jamie Parker | Greens | 21,065 | 42.7 | +5.3 |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 14,227 | 28.9 | -2.9 |
| Wenjie (Ben) Zhang | Liberal | 9,875 | 20.0 | -4.9 |
| Emilia Leonetti | Keep Sydney Open | 2,268 | 4.6 | +4.6 |
| Anita Finlayson | Animal Justice | 1,103 | 2.2 | +0.3 |
| Angela Dunnett | Sustainable Australia | 761 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 781 | 1.6 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jamie Parker | Greens | 24,074 | 60.0 | +5.3 |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 16,037 | 40.0 | -5.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 28,127 | 70.5 | +4.7 |
| Wenjie (Ben) Zhang | Liberal | 11,795 | 29.5 | -4.7 |
Booths in Balmain have been split into three areas, named after the key suburbs of Balmain, Leichhardt and Glebe. Lilyfield and Annandale have been grouped with Leichhardt, Birchgrove and Rozelle have been grouped with Balmain, and Forest Lodge and Ultimo have been grouped with Glebe.
The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.7% in Leichhardt to 61.8% in Balmain.
The Liberal Party came third, with a vote ranging from 17.3% in Glebe to 22.1% in Balmain.
| Voter group | LIB prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Leichhardt | 18.7 | 60.7 | 12,223 | 24.8 |
| Balmain | 22.1 | 61.8 | 9,795 | 19.9 |
| Glebe | 17.3 | 60.9 | 7,706 | 15.6 |
| Other votes | 22.1 | 59.0 | 10,675 | 21.7 |
| Pre-poll | 19.6 | 57.6 | 8,900 | 18.1 |
Election results in Balmain at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal Party.
This could be close if energetic Balmain Labor councillor, Inner West Mayor and Albo mate Darcy Byrne stands.
Sitting green mp isn’t that competent but he reflects his wealthy electorate.. also the margin is something like 60/40 green alp
@Neil I completely agree, Darcy Byrne should stand for Balmain especially since the Inner West Council could be de-merged and is probably the only person who could beat Jamie Parker.
I’m not sure if Darcy Byrne will stand but if he does (and if Albo’s popularity remains locally), this seat could flip. This would be the first ever NSW seat to flip from Greens to a major party. Ironically, despite the larger Greens margin, it’s easier to defeat the Greens in Balmain than in Ballina.
Labor will not win this seat. Period.
The Greens have never lost a seat that they have won in a general election so unless Jamie Parker retires i dont see how this could flip. No Green MP who has won a seat at a general election has retired yet so it will be interesting if there will be an opportunity for Labor once a Green MP retires.
Retiring Greens MP here… has this ever happened before anywhere? Can Labor win this seat back?
Only time I can think of where Labor won a seat back off the Greens was Northcote in VIC 2018, by that was after a byelection.
Green hold
It will be the first time there has ever been a Green MP who has retired after winning at a General election. There has never been a case of a Green winning at a General election who has lost so far
Ham,
Labor regained the federal seat of Cunningham from the Greens and also the WA state seat of Fremantle.
Cunningham and Fremantle (WA) were won at by-elections though.
Jamie Parker looked like he had a strong personal following and increased his margin in 2015 and 2019.
I wonder if Albo has an electoral honeymoon and whether it will affect the result here.
Saw cr Kobi Shetty herself with a corflute at the Rozelle Markets about an hour ago.
I haven’t seen her any prior time and I go passed every weekend. Perhaps this is related to a potential run, perhaps I’m paying more attention
@Nimalan Whilst the Greens have never lost a seat at a general election that they won at the previous election it’s easier to do that when you only have a handful of seats like the greens. Also up until the most recent federal election the Greens had never really won a swing seat or one that wasn’t experiencing or experienced changing demographics that suited the Greens. It will be interesting to see what happens with those 3 Brisbane seats as it was local issues that got them over the line wasn’t it. Correct me if i’m wrong but didn’t they Greens campaign in that area about reducing or moving flight patterns that were flying over these electorates. The seats of Brisbane and Griffith may be trending towards the Greens but i think they’ll have to work harder and be more widely appealing to continue to hold seats like Ryan.
@ North East. That is an excellent point previously working classes areas in the inner city such as Brunswick etc are different from more mixed seats such as Prahran. If the Liberals go back to Centre than i think there is potential for some of the more mixed seats such as Prahran, Maiwar and Ryan to be winnable. I note that however, Prahran has lost the part of Toorak which used to be strong for the Libs. I think it is more the case that when Labor loses a seat to Greens it is permanently lost especially with time there is no longer a Core Labor vote. Personally, i think Griffith will not be won by Labor again likely to Greens versus Liberal and same with Brisbane. The Liberals could still maintain some vote in these areas. So maybe Labor were the loosers in QLD since they are unlikely to hold Ryan, Brisbane or Griffith again but the Libs have a good Chance in Ryan and to a lesser extent in Brisbane if they are more moderate.
It’ll be between Phillippa Scott and Kobi Shetty (two incumbent Inner West councillors) so it should be an interesting contest. It’s worth noting that Jamie Parker brought a lot of NIMBY energy which was immensely popular which Inner West Labor are quite strongly against so should be interesting.
Greens Cr Kobi Shetty did incredibly well against Byrne in the Balmain ward for Inner West Council. I think she’s a definite win (if preselected) against the less-known, Scott.
Phillippa Scott is the Deputy Mayor of the Inner West Council. This could be a close contest with Jamie Parker’s incumbency now gone and Labor having momentum statewide. The fact that Scott got preselected really early probably means that they think they have a fighting chance.
Uncertain greens favourite
Kobi Shetty will almost definitely be the Greens candidate.
There is a path for Labor to win here.
If Labor could take 5% off the Liberal and Green vote they could jump The Greens into first place and win the seat off Liberal preferences. Shetty has a higher profile closer to Balmain, whilst Scott has a higher profile towards Leichhardt which slightly advantages The Greens as all of the Balmain ward is in the seat, but anything could swing it Labor’s way, including something as menial as a few visits by Albanese here and there.
Despite all that if I had to bet on a result I would say a closer than expected Green retain (within 2% of the TPP).
One factor I’m surprised to see not discussed is the issue of deamaglamation – a state Labor commitment to follow through with it could tip it in their favour, but an absence of a commitment will help The Greens. Until I hear Labor otherwise commit towards it, I’ll stick to prior prediction.
Should keep in mind that the OPV means the Lib to Labor preferences will be weaker than in most other states. Add to that the Lib HTV usually just tell voters to put 1 next to the Lib candidate and move on which means lots of Lib votes end up exhausting in Labor/Green contests
Should keep in mind that the OPV means the Lib to Labor preferences will be weaker than in most other states. Add to that the Lib HTV usually just tell voters to put 1 next to the Lib candidate and move on which means lots of Lib votes end up exhausting in Labor/Green contests
The difference between Labor’s primary votes and 2CP votes here in 2019 was less than 2,000 – despite the Liberals having a primary vote of almost 10,000! Very telling of the impact of OPV.
Agree Dan, with OPV it would be more whoever leads on 1st preferences that would be favoured to win overall. In fact, the Greens may have a better chance winning from 2nd place if they can gather preferences from parties like Animal Justice.
I think the Greens are favoured somewhat to retain Balmain even as an open seat. I probably see the Inner West of Sydney similar to somewhere like South Brisbane/West End that has gentrified and is no longer that favourable for Labor.
@ Yoh Anh, Agree with comparison to South Brisbane/West End both area where once industrial and the waterfront provided port facilities.
Just to agree with the people pointing out OPV makes Liberal votes less valuable, the Greens gained about 3,000 votes between the primary vote and the 2CP in 2019, while Labor gained only about 1,800. That’s from a pool of almost 10,000 Liberal votes and about 4000 votes for smaller centre-left parties.
And if you examine the distribution of preferences, when the Liberal candidate was excluded he sent 1491 votes to Parker and 1233 votes to Howse, with 7493 exhausting. That’s 14.6% flowing to the Greens and 12% to the ALP. I don’t see why the Liberal Party would change their strategy of exhausting – it’s easier to opt out than have to pick between two parties they dislike.
Demographically, Balmain is quite different to South Brisbane/West End. Balmain (the suburb) is much more affluent, with an older population and more families. South Brisbane and West End have more renters than homeowners, and a much younger population. Both areas have Labor vs Greens contests at the state and federal levels.
In Greens vs Labor contests at the federal election with compulsory preferencing, Liberal preferencing of Labor is as follows:
Grayndler: 60.45% of Liberal preferences went to Labor.
Sydney: 63.96% of Liberal preferences went to Labor.
In Metro Melbourne (Melbourne, Wills, Cooper), it’s around 70%. Sydney and Grayndler are quite big outliers. I wonder why. Because of OPV, Labor will get even less preferences from the Liberals at the state election, as well as right-wing candidates who prefer Labor over the Greens.
@Votante Makes me wonder if it’s because Albanese and Plibersek are on the ballot.
Nicholas this is partly correct. This time around Labor is polling better and minus Mr Parker ‘s personal vote could
Win..this election opv will probably favour the alp. I cannot pick who will win here
But given circumstances it is
No longer a certain green.win
This is probably a good test for Labor to see how they can possibly claw back inner city seats from the Greens. Seems they’re putting resources into it with Parker retiring. Will be an interesting watch, given Labor have more or less written off seats once they go Green at state or federal levels.
Jamie Parker’s been doing some weird nimby shit lately which I guess arguably cuts into the credibility of the Greens’ housing policy, but is that enough to swing a seat against him? It’s not like Labor has any more credibility on that.
Maybe if Labor really spend big they could flip it, but there are so many other seats that are better bets for them.
Furtive, Jamie Parker is retiring, so the swing wouldn’t be against him. I haven’t heard of Kobi Shetty being NIMBY yet.
Ah right. And she was only preselected a few weeks ago. Sheesh.
Maybe not such a farfetched possibility if Labor give it the Northcote treatment.
This seat is quite wealthy so instead of a teal they vote green.
Jamie Parker is popular and is likely to hold if he contested. The same Area votes for Albo.at
The federal level. My estimate is the greens are best placed to win
BUT this seat is possible for Labor to win. Another uncertain seat
@ MQ
I think parts of the seat such as Birchgrove and Balmain East etc could be friendly for Teal but i cannot see the Teals doing well in Annandale, Glebe, Ultimo etc. Just like i dont feel a teal will do well in Carlton, Fitzroy North etc but they will do well in East Melbourne.
Councillor Scott comes across as condescending and somewhat deluded, like the type who has to put their hand up first in class to show how smart/quick they are. She will block anyone on twitter who post anything critical or questioning. When she was preselected, Labor didn’t know Jamie was retiring. So perhaps they would have put up someone better? Mebbe Darcy would have, but feels like after his dumb campaign for a popularity elected mayor tanked, and as been said by another poster his vote went down, his not gods gift so all he has is to keep the council amalgamated, coz that will be as good as it gets for him. Just ask any non labor innerwest councillor how poorly they are treated by Darcy and deputy dick Scott. The housos in Glebe are gonna see straight thru Scott, who really doesn’t have a profile outside Leichhardt.
Freya Leach is the Liberal candidate for Balmain. A young person with a decent national profile. Lib win not out of question here with Parker retiring. OPV means Labor needs near 50% primary to win here.
What are you talking about? The Liberals would need almost 50% primary vote to win. It’s very unlikely the Liberal will make the top two. If they do, the other party in the top two will win.
To add to Ben’s point last time when the Libs came close to winning it in 2011 it contained Haberfield which is more suburban and liberal-friendly and it was the strong result there which allowed the Liberals to come first on primaries that will not be the case this time.
Labor only need to outpoll the greens to win, given liberal preferences largely exhausting. With a swing to Labor the lib preferences may be neutral or slightly favour Labor. However it is unlikely that Labor will outpoll the greens
@Furtive Lawngnome, what do you mean by the “Northcote treatment” that you mentioned above?
Wait, Freya Leach as in the Usyd right-wing law exam question girl? Wow
tbh it would be funnier if it was a completely different Freya Leach
GPPS: as in they bombard it with volunteers, MPs, (potential) premier visits and fly in every ALP heavyweight they can get.
Nope, it’s THAT Freya Leach.
Did I not warn you….
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/freya-leach-mocked-university-of-sydney-student-at-centre-of-controversial-law-exam-revealed-as-liberals-balmain-candidate/news-story/373d3ae52cfc5874693244ca14bfb841?amp
I’m a 66yo grandfather who resides in Balmain, and a Liberal. But I’m not voting for a 20yo still going to school.
You’re a Liberal living in Balmain – you’re not going to get a candidate with a serious chance of winning. You should be grateful there’s someone willing to fly the flag.
On the Right side of life, probably best to pick your poison between Labor and the Greens if you want to influence the outcome. Leach doesn’t have a hope of winning anyway, that’s why the party was happy to give the nomination to someone so inexperienced.
@Angus they wont take votes off the greens thats for sure im guessing an increased greens vote and green win on primary votes here or close to it. i reckon to preference the greens. even though they are crazy we look better when theyre in office