Badgerys Creek – NSW 2023

Surely Tanya Davies will join the long-list of retiring Liberal MPs? If so, with a high-profile or returning candidate, this could be picked up by ALP.

Tanya Davies is possibly the most rebellious Liberal MP in the NSW LA. Is this viewed positively or negatively by her constituents?

No news of retirement. Then again, there’s five months till the election.

The Liberals will almost certainly hold this. The Liberal margin is really high now, even though Mulgoa (soon to be Badgerys Creek) was a pre-2011 Labor heartland seat.

Votante,
Tanya Davies is already listed on the Elections NSW register of candidates for 2023 state election.

https://elections.nsw.gov.au/Funding-and-disclosure/public-register-and-lists/Register-of-Candidates/state-election-registers-of-candidates

Hard to believe the liberals will not hold this but if the sitting mp retires and give it is a growth area who knows. Depends on the size of the swing.. what was the vote here in the federal election.. how much is in Lindsay. Which swung a couple of per cent to Libs at federal election

Examine situation seat tends to change with govt. And provide a personal vote to the sitting mp. Seat swung 23% to libs in 2011. Swung 2.7 to lab 2015 then 1.67% to libs hoovering round 60/40 lib way. Last election .
right 57 left 53 gives a 4% opv bonus due to exhaustage.
Boundary changes shift 3% to alp. With an overall roughly 6% swing as suggested by the opinion polls this is line ball.. given it is a growth area this is hard to factor in . My guess if Tanya stands the liberals are favoured to narrowly hold. If not depends upon the swing and the candidate quality

Should be left 43

Any news on the candidates?

Well Tanya is NOT retiring and is definitely the best candidate. Yes – she is a rebellious Liberal – thank God for her!

the only problim is labors candadate is Garian Thain the son of local penrith councilor John Thain who has litle profile lives in penrith yet most of the seat covers molgoa andcambletown way thain is a mentore to labor mp prue car if labor thought it was winable they would have ransomeone from cambletown

aparently thain is a forklift driver suprised sombody from camble town or penrith cowncilor todd carney is not running but he ran twice before

suprised davies is running again her husband mark wanted to be liberal candadate in lindsay but he had to pull out thanks to morrison he is on penrith cowncil maybi he will chalinge for lindsay again Davies is from the hard right faction and she is on back bench yet seems very popular in the seatgetting an increased vote in 2019 which is opposit of ayres plus her faction controls the lindsay liberal branch

Aaron – Badgerys Creek has no connection with Campbelltown. Most southern part of the electorate is Oran Park which is in Camden LGA. The power base for this electorate will move south as population grows. The next member after Davies will be an Oran Park local.

Look at the last two maps in the guide. The light green lines represent LGA boundaries. The vast majority of voters in 2019 were not only in the City of Penrith but at the northern end, right alongside the border. And yes, no part of the Campbelltown council area is in this seat.

I expect Tanya Davies to hold on but with a smaller margin. It’s down to demographic changes. Oran Park’s population has multiplied since the last state election. At the federal election, the 2PP in Oran Park was in the 50s for Labor. The semi-rural areas between Oran Park and Mulgoa Rise have barely grown.

This electorate covers Penrith, Fairfield, Liverpool and Campbelltown LGAs yet doesn’t contain either of the namesake suburbs. It’s hard to tell as there aren’t labels on the above maps.

A lot of this area is rapidly growing with the new Western Sydney Airport being built here. I’d expect the Labor vote to grow substantially in future elections as the area develops. But for this month’s election, the Libs will hold but with a swing against thing.

i dont think thain is the right candadate he is little know his father John is on penrith cowncil and close to state labors prue Car but seems davies is safe

Badgerys Creek seemed to defy the trend by swinging further to the Libs.
My theory is on why this is the case is:
– Western Sydney Airport is being built so that became popular among voters there
– Libs votes tend to be conservative which Tanya Davies is known to have socially conservative views
– Labor didn’t campaign there

@ Marh
Agree with you points. However, a couple of caveats
1. When Labor last held the seat in its last government when it was often called Mulgoa, it went north of the M4 and included some strong Labor areas in St Marys, Oxley Park and Colyton. That gave it a base which it no longer does.
2. St Clair/Erksine Park is the most marginal part of this seat and if in the seat of McMahon and often votes Labor at a federal level. This areas had a swing to Labor in the last federal election unlike Lindsay suggest personal vote of Tanya Davies is leading it being blue
3. Glenmore Park is increasingly settled and affluent and is clearly trending Liberal in the past it was more of a mortgage belt bellwether.
4. However, there is likely to signficant demographic change in the coming decade which will help Labor. 5.There is going to a planned metro line which will have a station in Orchard Hills. This will lead it being urbanised and will be more like areas such as Leppington, Oran Park the booth which is now 83% Liberal 2PP could even become Red.
4. Bringellly is also planned to see an extension of the Leppington Rail line and should see the same trend.
5. Also note the growth areas of Penrith LGA such as Jordan Springs and Caddens are more ethnically diverse i expect that to occur in Orchard Hills.