NAT 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Geoff Provest, since 2007.
Geography
Northern NSW. Tweed covers the eastern half of the Tweed shire, covering most of the shire’s population centres including Tweed Heads and Banora Point.
History
The current electoral district of Tweed has existed since 1999. It was held by the ALP from 1999 to 2007 and by the Nationals since 2007.
Tweed replaced the district of Murwillumbah, which had taken up the northeastern corner of NSW from its creation in 1988 until 1999. It was held by Don Beck of the Nationals for its entire existence.
Beck had previously held the seat of Byron from 1984 to 1988. Byron had been a solid Country/National seat from 1927 until its abolition in 1988, when it was split into Ballina and Murwillumbah.
After Murwillumbah was replaced by Tweed at the 1999 election, Beck ran for the seat as the National Party candidate. He lost to the ALP candidate, Neville Newell.
A former teacher, Newell had won the federal seat of Richmond off National Party leader Charles Blunt at the 1990 election. He was re-elected in 1993 and lost his federal seat in 1996.
Newell won Tweed in 1999 with a 2.6% margin. This was increased in 2003 to 3.8%.
In 2007, Newell lost Tweed to Nationals candidate Geoff Provest. Provest was re-elected in 2011 and 2015.
Candidates
- Craig Elliot (Labor)
- Susie Hearder (Animal Justice)
- Geoff Provest (Nationals)
- Ronald McDonald (Sustainable Australia)
- Bill Fenelon (Greens)
Assessment
Tweed is a marginal Nationals seat and could be in play.
2015 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Geoff Provest | Nationals | 20,800 | 47.1 | -15.0 |
| Ron Goodman | Labor | 15,867 | 35.9 | +14.5 |
| Andrea Vickers | Greens | 5,864 | 13.3 | -0.8 |
| Kerrie Collins | No Land Tax | 1,042 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Michael Sichel | Christian Democrats | 618 | 1.4 | -1.1 |
| Informal | 1,569 | 3.4 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Geoff Provest | Nationals | 21,508 | 53.2 | -18.5 |
| Ron Goodman | Labor | 18,931 | 46.8 | +18.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Tweed have been split into four areas. The urban area in the north-eastern corner of the seat has been split between Tweed Heads in the north and Banora Point in the south. The remaining rural parts of the seat have been split into “West” and “South”.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 50.9% in Tweed Heads to 55.2% in the west. Labor won 50.8% in the south.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 11% in Banora Point to 18.8% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 18.8 | 49.2 | 9,486 | 21.5 |
| Banora Point | 11.0 | 53.8 | 7,753 | 17.5 |
| Tweed Heads | 12.7 | 50.9 | 6,471 | 14.6 |
| West | 16.4 | 55.2 | 4,396 | 9.9 |
| Other votes | 16.1 | 55.7 | 5,638 | 12.8 |
| Pre-poll | 7.5 | 55.4 | 10,447 | 23.6 |
Election results in Tweed at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
It confuses me as to why the Liberals don’t run in this seat instead of the Nationals. Tweed Heads is basically a suburb of the Gold Coast. It’s not a regional/rural area and isn’t really Nationals territory. The north of the electorate is Liberal/conservative leaning in line with the Gold Coast while the south is Greens/progressive in line with the Ballina and Richmond electorates. The Nationals just don’t seem like a good fit for this seat at all. I can see this falling to Labor on the back of a strong flow of Greens preferences.
This seat is in Richmond right? (Federal), Nevertheless i see this going back to Labor since allot of these traditional labor seats that was lost in 2011, Some are still in the Coalition’s hands i see seats like This and East hills be swept back the ALP, Labor gain
The 18.5% swing was off the anti-CSG movement that was going on around the Northern Rivers area up to the Far North Coast. This doesn’t appear to be as big an issue here so I think there is probably going to be a minor correction here or a flat-line in the swing. Coalition hold.
Will the hospital shenanigans maintain the tilt against the Nationals brought about by the anti-CSG movement in 2015?
The anti-CSG movement in 2015 was in the seats of Lismore and Clarence. No anti-CSG swing in Tweed – the Greens vote decreased. The swing to Labor was a reversal of the swing in the 2011 election.
The hospital issue is just a symptom of the how the current NSW Government operates. All decisions are made in Sydney by a small group of people without any consultation with the people who will be impacted by the decision. Even coalition MPs have no influence on the decisions.
Question: Given the seat’s very close proximity to the Gold Coast and the continual development creep across the Tweed from Queensland, is this a seat that the Coalition may well look to change from being a Nats to a Liberal Seat?
Sustainable Australia Party looks pretty good and balanced when you read in detail on their website to protect interest of small business farmers and family’s. Sustainable growth to prevent over development with a with well thought out common sense environmental policy.
We need a new hospital more beds urgently yes but there were many alternative sites offered.
This is State Significant Farmland yet the State Government has just ignored that, MPs are supposed to represent their electorate and by ignoring the residents of the Tweed Shire and building the hospital on some of the best quality all year food producing drought proof land in NSW will be expressed at the ballot box.
Narrow Labor gain – and watch the south of the seat for the Green vote – if the momentum goes their way, this could end up being the seat that helps Labor get in.