LIB 9.7%
Incumbent MP
Tanya Davies, since 2011.
Geography
Western Sydney. Mulgoa includes southern parts of the City of Penrith, and small parts of the Blacktown, Fairfield and Liverpool council areas. Suburbs include St Clair, Glenmore Park, Mulgoa, Wallacia, Erskine Park, Kemps Creek and Cecil Hills.
History
Mulgoa was first created as an electoral district in 1988. It was won in 1988 by the ALP’s Tony Aquilina. In 1991, the seat of Mulgoa was abolished, with parts of it shifting to the new seats of St Marys and Badgerys Creek. Aquilina moved to the seat of St Marys. In Badgerys Creek, the sitting Liberal Member for Minchinbury, Anne Cohen, defeated the ALP’s Diane Beamer.
In 1995, Aquilina retired on pressure from the Labor leadership over scandals. He later spent a year in prison after being convicted of various offences. St Marys was won by Jim Anderson of the ALP, who moved to Londonderry in 1999 when St Marys was abolished and held it until his death in 2003.
In Badgerys Creek, Beamer defeated Cohen on a second attempt. In 1999, Badgerys Creek was abolished, and largely replaced by the restored seat of Mulgoa. Beamer was re-elected in Badgerys Creek in 1999, 2003 and 2007. She served as a minister in the Labor government from 2003 to 2007.
Diane Beamer retired in 2011, and Liberal candidate Tanya Davies won Mulgoa with a 23.2% swing.
Candidates
Assessment
Mulgoa is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, although the seat was held by Labor quite recently and could return to Labor if there is a general swing.
2015 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tanya Davies | Liberal | 25,709 | 53.3 | -0.2 |
| Todd Carney | Labor | 16,909 | 35.0 | +3.6 |
| Jennifer Scholfield | Christian Democrats | 2,193 | 4.5 | -0.2 |
| Kingsley Liu | Greens | 2,024 | 4.2 | -1.6 |
| Tania Canto | No Land Tax | 1,425 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Informal | 2,132 | 4.2 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tanya Davies | Liberal | 26,786 | 59.7 | -2.7 |
| Todd Carney | Labor | 18,114 | 40.3 | +2.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mulgoa were split into three areas: central, east and west. “East” covers all of those polling places in the Liverpool and Fairfield council areas, while “Central” covers those clustered around St Clair and “West” covers those near the Nepean River.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.7% in the centre to 65% in the west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 53.7 | 12,882 | 26.7 |
| West | 65.0 | 12,249 | 25.4 |
| East | 61.6 | 9,933 | 20.6 |
| Other votes | 57.4 | 10,499 | 21.8 |
| Pre-poll | 65.0 | 2,697 | 5.6 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Penrith at the 2015 NSW state election
Weird seat, all the population lives at the edges of the district with a big void at the centre.
Given it overlaps four federal Labor seats (plus a tiny bit of Liberal-held Hume), I’d assumed Mulgoa would be Labor held on federal figures. Not so. With the exception of St Clair/Erskine Park, all these suburbs vote Liberal federally too.
Possible Liberal hold – one that should go with government.