LIB 13.0%
Incumbent MP
Eleni Petinos, since 2015.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Miranda covers suburbs in Sutherland Shire, including Como, Gymea, Kirrawee, Illawong, Miranda, Sylvania, Sylvania Waters and Taren Point.
History
Miranda was first created for the 1971 election. It has been a key marginal seat, and has been won by the party that won government at all but three elections.
The seat was first won in 1971 by the Liberal Party’s Tim Walker. Walker was a former newsagent who had won the seat of Sutherland in 1968. Sutherland was abolished in 1968 and Walker moved to the new seat of Miranda.
Walker was defeated in 1978 by the ALP’s Bill Robb. The 1978 election was a landslide for Labor Premier Neville Wran, who had won power narrowly in 1976. Robb was re-elected in 1981, but in 1984 was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Ron Phillips.
The Liberal Party regained power in 1988, and Phillips served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1991 to 1995. He served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party after the party lost power in 1995 until he lost his seat in 1999.
The ALP’s Barry Collier defeated Phillips in 1999, and he won re-election in 2003 and 2007.
Collier retired at the 2011 election, and Miranda was won by Liberal candidate Graham Annesley with a 22% swing.
Annesley was appointed as Minister for Sport and Recreation in 2011. Annesley resigned from the ministry and Parliament in 2013 to take on the role of CEO of the Gold Coast Titans, a team in the NRL.
At the ensuing by-election, the seat was won by former MP Barry Collier, who returned to contest the seat. The 2011 swing was entirely reversed, with Labor gaining a 26% swing.
Collier retired again in 2015, and Liberal candidate Eleni Petinos was elected.
Candidates
- Gaye Cameron (One Nation)
- Nathan Hunt (Greens)
- Eleni Petinos (Liberal)
- George Capsis (Christian Democrats)
- Jen Armstrong (Labor)
- Nick Hughes (Sustainable Australia)
Assessment
Miranda is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
2015 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Eleni Petinos | Liberal | 27,325 | 55.3 | -7.4 |
| Greg Holland | Labor | 14,654 | 29.6 | +8.8 |
| Mick Nairn | Greens | 3,450 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| Mark Falanga | Christian Democrats | 2,139 | 4.3 | +0.2 |
| John Brett | Independent | 1,109 | 2.2 | -0.9 |
| Andrew Tran | No Land Tax | 777 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Informal | 1,705 | 3.3 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Eleni Petinos | Liberal | 28,562 | 63.0 | -10.0 |
| Greg Holland | Labor | 16,800 | 37.0 | +10.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Miranda have been split into central (including Como, Kareela and Oyster Bay), east (including Miranda, Sylvania and Taren Point) and west (including Alfords Point and Illawong).
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.6% in the centre to 66.7% in the west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 65.6 | 13,762 | 27.8 |
| Central | 59.6 | 12,506 | 25.3 |
| West | 66.7 | 8,614 | 17.4 |
| Other votes | 61.9 | 9,163 | 18.5 |
| Pre-poll | 59.9 | 5,409 | 10.9 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Miranda at the 2015 NSW state election
Unless Barry Collier comes back a third time (and part of the reason he won in 2013 was because Graham Annersley did a cut and run), this will be Liberal until the next 1978/1999-esque Labor landslide.
Seats are always difficult to draw in Sutherland shire, but this is a weird configuration. Illawong and Alfords Point are completely disconnected from the rest of the electorate.
Liberal hold, and with Barry Collier retired for good, should be that way until Labor’s next landslide.