Kiama – NSW 2019

labor vote is very much down…. compare these same areas in Gilmore

Ward an excellent local member. If the ALP improve their vote by any more than 2-3% I’d be surprised.

transpose the current Gilmore figures and see the result

Moderate Ask the Federal liberal member what she thinks of Mr Ward

A very good local Member, don’t see Labor causing an upset here.

if you say that, then say that about all the other good local member, They dont vote on good local members, its usually the government at fault

I was read online last week that a councillor on Kiama Council has been charged in Qld for using the drug Ice. This councillors was a former ALP MP too.

Matt Brown (ALP) and a former NSW police minister has been charged in Queensland with using the psychotropic illegal drug Ice.

Gareth Ward has a solid personal vote in this electorate, much the same way as Mark Coure in Oatley.

This should be a Liberal Retain

suspect both will be defeated

Suspect or hope Mick??

Suspect, Not hope, im over this with some of you Liberal’s (actually your not liberal’s your Trump conservatives) Trickle down economics, never work’s nor does reducing taxes, Been proven by economist’s We need to start moving to Centre-Left politic’s It will do this world good, I am tired of paying politician’s expenses, Electricity has not gone down in price, They all lie. They are just trying to get our vote’s, Gareth Ward defends this 100% because any politician will say ANYTHING and defend their party to get elected

Ok Daniel – thanks for the considered and reasoned response. PS – My politics couldn’t be further adrift from Donald Trump.

Mr Raue: the booth category labels are wrong on the map, you’ve got the South Coast ones I think.

I’m not a Tory supporter but moderate, Hawkeye_au & PRP are correct about Gareth Ward being a strong local member. If he loses, Labor will have won easily elsewhere.

Thanks, fixed.

Maybe Mr Ward would have survived if it was not for his federal colleague dumping on him
but given that at the liberals extreme disharmony in Gilmore and the decision to endorse Mr Mundine as the liberal candidate I would say no chance of a liberal win now

Mick – you really don’t know this seat mate. I reckon Ward will break 60% – massive infrastructure in the area (particularly new roads) and no visible ALP presence at all.

Wrong, Liberal hold but a swing against them, No way they get a swing towards them on a Pro-Labour year, 53-47 final prediction in this seat (Towards the Liberals), If you have never visited this seat how can you claim you know so much about this seat?

I repeat Kiama is about half of Gilmore which is a real mess for the Liberals…… Kiama will vote alp at a federal level…………… the Liberal party would be in disarray………. remember the same people who make up the Kiama liberal party also make up the Gilmore Liberals. What a mess… Ann, Joanna, Gareth , Mr Schultz jnr
there will be a huge huge overlap… I assume Moderate knows Mr Ward personally or has relatives living in this area.Oh I forgot Mr Mundine……….. Kiama is not safe Liberal territory but a 50/50 area which can swing

you’re kidding right daniel?

the alp candidate is poor and only has just recently ramped up his campaign … the alp focus is federal with fiona phillips … and in the illawarra to re-elect scully and park (the amount of alp materials in the three illawarra electorates kiera, w’gong and s’harbour is insane) … Liberal hold and increased margin (again …) unless liberal vote plummets state wide … do you have any idea about this seat daniel?

GW has been a STELLAR mp; and i think he will keep his 8% margin … his personal vote is huge … grassroots campaign from ward has been strong also; plus I’m sure all the traffic driving through albion park currently would LOVE the works being undertaken for the by pass … If kolomeitz was running again it would be a tighter race and i’d say you’d be accurate but honestly Higgins is a poor candidate and Daniel, you are Wrong.

I was expecting this to be a safe hold, but Liberals are suddenly putting in a lot of effort…..I wonder what the polling is telling them….as noted above, the ALP not really putting into this contest

It’s going to be a safe hold;

The reason the Illawarra liberals are putting in a lot of effort is because it would seem a waste putting it into Kiera, Wollongong and Shellharbour because they have no chance of winning those labor seats.

Except it’s head office throwing the coin…lots of young liberal campaigners..

Kiama should easily be retained by the libs.
IMO, South Coast is a more interesting contest.
Infighting between shelley / Ward / Sudmalis / Gash / Shultz
Greens vote is usually around the 12% mark – that might slump as Amanda Findley isn’t the green candidate this time.
But we just elected a Green mayor so….

You realise that isn’t the case?

The young liberals campaigning in Kiama are locals and on their own dime.

There’s a reason they are putting in a lot of effort and that’s because they want Gareth to win.

Your outlook would be perfect when applied to the seat of heathcote, not for Kiama.

In this PC Age I do wonder how the Kiama Incumbent wouldn’t suffer a decline in support.

Fair enough there are roads through the electorate now that mange to shift bottlenecks further south however his rhetoric towards women especially does make one think that an increase in conservative Votes may be Pie in the Sky stuff.

Self effacing he isn’t

What rhetoric towards women has Ward used that is problematic? The only scandal I’ve seen reported about him is the New York story.

Possible Liberal hold – Ward is reportedly a strong MLA.

Well, I wonder why the margin increased?!? … 12.2% (+3.5% … Possibly More) … Oatley & Kiama got great swings; Illustrates that a hard working local member can really change the landscape the electorate. Liberals also won all the booths in Albion Park for the first time. A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT. #letsgetitdonensw

Hey Daniel/Mick – now how do your predictions look on this one?? Ward won every single booth,including every Albion park booth.
Mick as I’ve said to you repeatedly, better to express a view on what you know rather than what you hope. It stops you face looking a little omelette like after polling day!!

not really …….. Kiama is still marginal territory despite the margin
Look a the Gilmore mess…. will Mr Ward even vote for the endorsed
liberal candidate

Mick – this is a state election forum. So lets leave the federal stuff to another time.

You have consistently indicated that the ALP would win Kiama. It is now not even a marginal seat. Ibn varioud posts you indicated you liked the ALP prospects in Oatley, Ryde, South Coast and Bega. It must be reverse psephology, but in every one of those seats the LP increased the margin.

Do you have ice cream or custard with your humble pie?

just the cream and ice cream thanks
all these seats have a dynamic of being competitive…. all except Bega have been won by Labor in the time prior to the 2011 disaster … Bega voted 54% in 2016 as part of Eden Monaro

I think this election, more than any other, has shown (at least) that NSW can make decisions that distinguish between State and Federal Issues. The idea that trending between Federal and State is a solid indication in marginal seats is probably becoming more and more divergent. It also speaks to the power of the personal vote.

The classic example is Riverstone, where Kevin Connelly holds the seat fairly comfortably but in the equivalent seat, Michelle Rowland holds the federal seat well. It really does show how strong the personal vote is.

“dynamic of being competitive”……….
Mmmmm.
I’ll come back to you in 4 years.

That’s what I don’t understand. There were plenty of people claiming that Labor would be claiming a swag of seats with huge margins, simply because Labor held them prior to the massive defeat in 2011.

Apart from the fact that a lot of those seats had very well-entrenched incumbents when Labor was last in office, TIME HAS MOVED ON. Trying to use data that’s over a decade old and getting more outdated by the second is completely fallacious.

mick the ALP did not won a single booth in Kiama and lost some by 2.5-1. It is a landslide from being competitive if the 2pp is ALP 57-43. A uniform swing would not deliver them Kiama atm

still stand by what I said have a look at the Gilmore figures for either soon when the election is held or even 2016…. this seat is competitive in the right circumstances……. it is not naturally safe liberal

Wonder if there will be a by-election and what the result will be…12% is a big ask. But the circumstances are different.. and just like Labor polled poorly in 2011… the liberals are very unpopular now

50/50 polling now vs 65/35 in 2011 is hardly a like comparison Mick!

15% swing from then… but own goals causing by elections area problem