Upper Hunter – NSW 2015

NAT 23.0%

Incumbent MP
George Souris, since 1998.

Geography
Northern NSW. Upper Hunter covers rural areas to the northwest of Newcastle. It covers all of Dungog, Gloucester, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter local government areas, most of the Liverpool Plains council area, the populated parts of the Singleton council area, and parts of Great Lakes and Mid-Western areas. The seat’s major centres are Singleton, Muswellbrook, Scone and Dungog.

Map of Upper Hunter's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Upper Hunter’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Upper Hunter mostly remained intact, but lost its southern fringe to Cessnock in exchange for some other parts of Cessnock, all areas with a small population. Small areas were lost to Tamworth on the northern boundary, and gained from Myall Lakes on the eastern boundary. These changes cut the Nationals margin from 23.3% to 23.0%.

History
Upper Hunter has existed since 1859, with the exception of a decade around the turn of the century and three terms in the 1920s. It elected a single MP from 1859 to 1880, two MPs from 1880 to 1894, and single-member since 1904. The seat has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since the early 1930s. The last time it was held by the ALP was for six months in 1910.

Sitting Nationalist MP William Cameron died in 1931. Under the coalition agreement between the Nationalist Party and the Country Party, Upper Hunter was allocated as a Nationalist seat. Local Country Party branches supported Malcolm Brown as an independent, without the official support of the party. While the Nationalist candidate won the most primary votes, but Brown won the seat on preferences. After his election he joined the Country Party officially. Brown held the seat until his death in 1939.

The 1939 by-election was won in D’Arcy Rose, also of the Country Party. He held the seat until his retirement in 1959.

Upper Hunter was won in 1959 by Leon Punch. In 1962, he shifted to the seat of Gloucester. A contested preselection saw himself and another Country Party candidate both stand for Gloucester, but Punch won easily. Punch was elected Deputy Leader of the NSW Country Party and became a minister in 1973. In 1975 he was elected leader of the National Country Party, a role he held until his retirement in 1985. He also served as Deputy Premier from 1975 to 1976.

Upper Hunter was won in 1962 by Frank O’Keefe, who had held Liverpool Plains since 1961. His old seat was abolished in the redistribution. O’Keefe held Upper Hunter until 1969, when he resigned and won the federal seat of Paterson. He held Paterson until its abolition in 1984.

Col Fisher won the 1970 by-election. He served as a minister from 1975 to 1976, and retired in 1988.

George Souris has held Upper Hunter for the National Party since 1988. He served as a minister from 1992 to 1995. He was elected deputy leader of the NSW National Party in 1993, and served as National Party leader from 1999 to 2003.

Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP George Souris is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Upper Hunter is a reasonably safe Nationals seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
George Souris Nationals 24,555 54.7 -5.5 54.3
Tim Duddy Independent 8,653 19.3 +19.3 18.3
Michael Gibbons Labor 8,047 17.9 -13.4 18.3
Chris Parker Greens 2,563 5.7 -2.8 5.7
Fred Cowley Christian Democrats 1,109 2.5 +2.5 2.5
Others 1.0

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
George Souris Nationals 26,179 68.3
Tim Duddy Independent 12,161 31.7

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
George Souris Nationals 27,723 73.3 +8.6 73.0
Michael Gibbons Labor 10,087 26.7 -8.6 27.0
Polling places in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election. Dungog in blue, Gloucester-Stroud in orange, Liverpool Plains in purple, Muswellbrook in yellow, Singleton in red, Upper Hunter in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election. Dungog in blue, Gloucester-Stroud in orange, Liverpool Plains in purple, Muswellbrook in yellow, Singleton in red, Upper Hunter in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Upper Hunter have been split into six areas, based on council areas. Polling places in the Dungog, Liverpool Plains, Singleton and Upper Hunter council areas have been grouped together by council area. Those in the Gloucester and Great Lakes council areas have been grouped as ‘Gloucester-Stroud’, while those in the Muswellbrook and Mid-Western council areas have been grouped as ‘Muswellbrook’.

The Nationals won a majority of the primary vote in all six areas, ranging from 50.9% in Dungog to 58.4% in Gloucester-Stroud.

Independent candidate Tim Duddy’s vote ranged from 16.8% in Singleton to 28.3% on the Liverpool Plains. Duddy came second in the Upper Hunter, Dungog, Gloucester-Stroud and Liverpool Plains areas.

Labor’s vote ranged from 10.4% in Liverpool Plains to 22.4% in Singleton.

Voter group NAT % IND % ALP % Total votes % of votes
Singleton 51.0 16.8 22.4 7,391 16.2
Upper Hunter 57.7 22.2 15.4 6,427 14.1
Muswellbrook 53.7 19.1 20.7 5,233 11.5
Dungog 50.9 18.5 15.9 4,588 10.1
Gloucester-Stroud 58.4 16.9 13.1 3,085 6.8
Liverpool Plains 56.8 28.3 10.4 2,843 6.2
Other votes 54.4 15.6 19.9 16,033 35.2
Nationals primary votes in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent Tim Duddy in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent Tim Duddy in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Upper Hunter at the 2011 NSW state election.

8 COMMENTS

  2. Retiring local member, concerns about CSG, I’ll put this down as a large swing, but not anywhere near enough for it to change hands.

  3. Foley was launching Labor’s ‘country’ campaign in this seat today. An interesting choice of location. Their candidate seems reasonably high profile as Mayor of Muswellbrook.

    The independent Lee Watts has been campaigning for some time and is an Upper Hunter Shire councillor. She will presumably pick up at least a decent chunk of Tim Duddy’s vote from last time. Her website is http://www.leewatts.com.au/

  5. Just got back from two days in Muswellbrook, and up at Denman.

    Nats are gone here. It’s Watts v ALP. Nats will come third.

  6. shift 10% primary vote from np to Alp means 44% nat vote with unfriendly preference flow….. close to np loss

  7. Predict Lee Watts to end up second here and not Labor, Michael Johnsen will have name recognition having run for Hunter Federally twice and doing quite well in 2013. I’d expect him to hold on but by a much smaller margin than Souris had.

Comments are closed.