LIB 25.2%
Incumbent MP
Victor Dominello, since 2008.
Geography
Northern Sydney. The seat of Ryde includes a majority of the City of Ryde, including the suburbs of Ryde, Denistone, Eastwood, Marsfield, Macquarie Park, Meadowbank, North Ryde and West Ryde.
Redistribution
Ryde shifted slightly west, losing territory to Lane Cove and gaining territory from Epping. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 25.7% to 25.2%.
History
The first seat of Ryde was created at the 1894 election. It has existed at various times since then. It was abolished in 1904 and restored in 1913. In 1920 it was expanded to become a five-member district, before that was reversed in 1927. It was abolished again in 1968 and restored in 1981. It was again abolished in 1991 and restored finally in 1999.
From 1927 to 1968, Ryde alternated between being held by the ALP and the United Australia/Liberal Party.
When Ryde was restored in 1981, it was won by Labor MP Garry McIlwaine. McIlwaine had won the Liberal seat of Yaralla in 1978, before it was abolished in the 1981 redistribution. He held Ryde until 1988, when he was defeated by Liberal candidate Michael Photios.
Ryde was abolished in 1991, and Photios moved to the new seat of Ermington. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1993 to 1995.
At the 1999 election, Ryde was again restored. It covered much of the abolished seats of Gladesville, Ermington and Eastwood. Photios ran against John Watkins, the Labor Member for Gladesville. Watkins had won Gladesville off the Liberal Party in 1995. Watkins defeated Photios, gaining a 6.6% margin.
Watkins was appointed to the ministry in 1999, and quickly moved up the ranks of the ALP. Watkins became Deputy Premier in 2005 when Bob Carr and Andrew Refshauge.
Watkins increased his margin to over 65% in 2003, and maintained a 60% margin in 2007. In 2008, Morris Iemma resigned as Premier after losing the support of party figures. Following his decision, Watkins announced his retirement.
By-elections were held in Ryde, Port Macquarie, Lakemba and Cabramatta in October 2008. The ALP lost Ryde with a 23.1% swing, which was a record swing at any by-election in modern NSW history. The second-biggest swing was recorded in Cabramatta on the same day. Both were surpassed by the Penrith by-election in 2010. Ryde was won by former Ryde councillor and Liberal candidate Victor Dominello.
Dominello was re-elected in 2011, and has served as a minister since the Coalition won power in 2011.
Candidates
- Jerome Laxale (Labor)
- Victor Dominello (Liberal)
- Joe Cacciotti (No Land Tax)
- Julie Worsley (Christian Democratic Party)
- Justin Alick (Greens)
Assessment
Ryde is held by the Liberal Party by a large 25% margin, but has a recent history of being Labor-held until 2008. While Dominello is in a strong position, he could be vulnerable if there is a large swing across the state.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Victor Dominello | Liberal | 27,247 | 62.8 | +34.2 | 62.0 |
| Jerome Laxale | Labor | 7,374 | 17.0 | -27.8 | 17.2 |
| Jimmy Shaw | Greens | 3,969 | 9.1 | +1.3 | 9.8 |
| Vic Tagg | Independent | 3,043 | 7.0 | +7.0 | 6.3 |
| Julie Worsley | Christian Democrats | 1,774 | 4.1 | +0.4 | 4.1 |
| Others | 0.5 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Victor Dominello | Liberal | 29,578 | 75.7 | +35.8 | 75.2 |
| Jerome Laxale | Labor | 9,498 | 24.3 | -35.8 | 24.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ryde have been split into three parts: east, north and west.
The Liberal two-party-preferred vote was similar in the three areas: ranging from 74.3% in the west to 75.8% in the east.
The Greens vote ranged from 8% in the east to 10.6% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | GRN % | Total | % of votes |
| West | 74.3 | 9.5 | 13,840 | 30.1 |
| East | 75.8 | 8.1 | 12,306 | 26.7 |
| North | 75.5 | 10.6 | 9,142 | 19.9 |
| Other votes | 75.0 | 11.2 | 10,766 | 23.4 |
Wildly inflated margin here, considering that 80% LIB booth is Eastwood Heights Primary School
My prediction: Likely Liberal hold, unless Labor gain a swing large enough to topple the inflated margin here.
Wow, a 36% swing at the last election. Given that the swing was disproportionately wild and the margin is so inflated it seems like it might not be entirely unlikely for Labor to win Ryde back.
Is this the largest 2PP swing at the 2011 election?
That swing is compared to the 2007 election, and of course there’d been a by-election in between where Labor had lost it, so that helped a bit.
It was the 2nd biggest. The biggest swing was 36.7% in Bathurst.
I’m surprised some comments seem to be putting inflated hopes on a “Labor swing”. If one actually eventuates at all (and I’m skeptical of anything more than a mild correction here) it won’t give Ryde a new member. Victor Dominello is a very popular local MP and his cabinet responsibilities neatly fit with the interests of the large and growing Asian population.
A pity Vic Tagg isn’t standing again. His spirited campaigning skills will be missed…
Ryde on normal figures is a marginal liberal seat…… at best by 5% to 7%………. the uniform 70 % 2pp is a massive inflation of the Liberal Margin…… never the less probably liberal retain at this election….. also this area can in good times have a !0% ALP Margin
Liberal hold with a new margin of 11%.
This will be held by the Coalition, Predicting a Margin of about 10-11%