Penrith – NSW 2015

LIB 16.1%

Incumbent MP
Stuart Ayres, since 2010.

Geography
Western Sydney. The seat of Penrith covers central suburbs of the City of Penrith and parts of the lower Blue Mountains. Suburbs include Penrith, Cambridge Gardens, Jamisontown, Kingswood, Cranebrook, Emu Plains, Leonay, Lapstone and Glenbrook.

Redistribution
Penrith lost the remainder of Blaxland to Blue Mountains and gained the remainder of Cranebrook as well as Cambridge Gardens from Londonderry. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 16.3% to 16.1%.

History
The seat of Penrith has existed since 1973. While it is currently Liberal-held, it has been won by the ALP at every general election except for 1988 and 2011.

Penrith was first won in 1973 by Ron Mulock, who had won the marginal seat of Nepean in 1971. Mulock moved to the new seat of St Marys in 1981, holding it until its abolition in 1988. Mulock served as a minister through the entire Labor government from 1976 to 1988, serving as Deputy Premier from 1984.

Penrith was won in 1981 by Peter Anderson. He had won Nepean back from the Liberal Party in 1978 before moving to the safer seat of Penrith in 1981. Anderson had served as a minister from 1982, and in 1986 he challenged Barrie Unsworth for the Labor leadership upon the retirement of Neville Wran.

Anderson lost Penrith in a shock result at the 1988 election. He returned to Parliament at a by-election for Liverpool in 1989, holding the seat until 1995.

Guy Matheson won Penrith for the Liberal Party in 1988. He lost the seat in 1991.

Matheson lost in 1991 to Penrith mayor Faye Lo Po’, running for the ALP. She served as a minister from 1995 to 2003, when she retired from Penrith.

Penrith was won in 2003 by Penrith councillor Karyn Paluzzano. She was appointed a parliamentary secretary in 2008.

In 2010, she faced an inquiry by the Independent Commission Against Corruption over accusations that she had falsified pay forms. Following an adverse finding, she resigned from Parliament in May 2010.

The subsequent by-election was won by Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres. He won the seat with an unprecedented 25.7% swing, turning a 9% ALP margin into a 16% Liberal margin. Ayres was re-elected in 2011. Ayres has served as a minister since 2011, now serving as Minister for Sport and Recreation.

Candidates

• Angelo Pezzano (No Land Tax)
• Mark O’Sullivan (Greens)
• Jackie Kelly (Independent)
• Carolyn Kennett (Independent)
• May Spencer (Christian Democratic Party)
• Stuart Ayres (Liberal)
• Emma Husar (Labor)
• Victor Waterson (Independent)

Assessment
The Liberal margin of 16.1% in Penrith is strong, but not impregnable. On a uniform swing basis, a 16% swing would likely result in a hung parliament, making Penrith a very important seat. Ayres is a strong local member, but may suffer from the presence of independent candidate Jackie Kelly, a former four-term federal MP for the same area. It’s very hard to say whether Kelly has a chance of winning Penrith, but at the very least you would expect her presence to reduce the vote for the official Liberal candidate.

2011 election result

2011 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Penrith have been split into three parts: central, north and west. The “west” covers those polling places west of the Nepean River, including those in the lower Blue Mountains.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote in the area ranged from 63.5% in the north to 70.1% in the west.

The Greens vote ranged from 7.4% in the north to 11.9% in the west.