Myall Lakes – NSW 2015

NAT 28.6%

Incumbent MP
Stephen Bromhead, since 2011.

Geography
Mid-North Coast. Myall Lakes covers a majority of both Greater Taree and Great Lakes council areas. It covers the towns of Taree and Forster, and surrounding areas.

Map of Myall Lakes' 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Myall Lakes’ 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Myall Lakes lost rural areas to Port Stephens and Maitland at the south-western end of the seat, and gained rural areas to the north-east of Taree from Oxley. The changes had no impact on the seat’s margin.

History
The seat of Myall Lakes has existed since 1988, and has always been held by the National Party.

When the seat was created, it partly replaced the seat of Gloucester, which had existed since 1880. Gloucester had been held by the Country/National Party since 1950.

Myall Lakes was won in 1988 by John Turner of the National Party. He held the seat for six terms before retiring in 2011. He served as deputy leader of the NSW National Party from 1999 to 2003.

In 2011, Myall Lakes was won by Nationals candidate Stephen Bromhead.

Candidates

Assessment
Myall Lakes is a safe Nationals seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Stephen Bromhead Nationals 29,679 64.6 +15.4 64.6
Steve Attkins Independent 6,186 13.5 +13.5 13.1
David Petroulakis Labor 5,904 12.8 -7.5 12.7
Greg Smith Greens 3,084 6.7 +0.7 7.0
Barry Wright Independent 1,116 2.4 +2.4 2.3
Others 0.2

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Stephen Bromhead Nationals 30,821 74.9
Steve Attkins Independent 10,311 25.1

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Stephen Bromhead Nationals 31,658 78.6 +11.2 78.6
David Petroulakis Labor 8,629 21.4 -11.2 21.4
Polling places in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in blue, Forster-Tuncurry in green, North in red, South in orange, Taree in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in blue, Forster-Tuncurry in green, North in red, South in orange, Taree in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Myall Lakes has been split into five parts. Polling places in the two main towns of Forster-Tuncurry and Taree have been grouped together, with the remaining polling places grouped into “north”, “central” and “south”. Polling places in Forster-Tuncurry and South are in the Great Lakes council area, while the remainder are in Greater Taree council area.

The Nationals won a majority of the primary vote in all five areas, ranging from 58.3% in the south to 66.5% in the north.

Independent candidate Steve Attkins came second, with a vote ranging from 11.4% in the north to 17.8% in the south. Labor’s vote ranged from 10% in the north to 14.3% in Forster-Tuncurry.

Voter group NAT % IND % ALP % Total % of votes
Forster-Tuncurry 66.3 12.5 14.3 9,100 19.6
Taree 63.5 14.6 13.3 7,388 15.9
Central 63.6 15.8 11.3 7,293 15.7
South 58.3 17.8 12.0 4,214 9.1
North 66.5 11.4 10.1 3,854 8.3
Other votes 65.9 10.5 13.0 14,543 31.3
Nationals primary votes in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Myall Lakes at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Taree at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Taree at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins in Taree at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins in Taree at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Taree at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Taree at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Forster-Tuncurry at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Forster-Tuncurry at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins in Forster-Tuncurry at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins in Forster-Tuncurry at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Forster-Tuncurry at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Forster-Tuncurry at the 2011 NSW state election.

2 COMMENTS

  2. people are starting to realise that Myall Lakes is missing out on critical funding and services and a change in local member is required. It would be a big swing, but not impossible. Even if the nationals win the seat, this will not be seen as a safe seat anymore.

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