Maroubra – NSW 2015

ALP 2.3%

Incumbent MP
Michael Daley, since 2005.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Maroubra covers parts of Randwick and Botany Bay local government areas, including the suburbs of Botany, Banksmeadow, Daceyville, La Perouse, Chifley, Malabar, Matraville and Maroubra.

Map of Maroubra's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Maroubra’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Maroubra lost South Coogee to Coogee, and gained Daceyville from Heffron. These changes increased the Labor margin from 1.6% to 2.3%.

History
Maroubra has existed as an electoral district since 1950. It has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1950 by the ALP’s Bob Heffron. He had held the seat of Botany since 1930, until its abolition in 1950.

Heffron had left the ALP in 1938 in opposition to Jack Lang, before returning to the party in 1941. He served as a cabinet minister from 1941 to 1959, when he became NSW Premier. He held the role until he retired to the backbench in 1964. He retired from Maroubra in 1968.

Heffron was succeeded by Randwick mayor Bill Haigh. He became a minister when the ALP won power in 1976. He was dropped from the ministry after the 1981 election, and he then retired in 1983.

The 1983 Maroubra by-election was won by Bob Carr. He was appointed as a minister in the Labor government in 1984. When Labor lost power in 1988, Carr become leader of the ALP. In 1991, he led the ALP to a strong result, depriving the Coalition government of a majority. He won power in 1995. He served as Premier for ten years, winning large majorities in 1999 and 2003. He retired in 2005.

The 2005 Maroubra by-election was won by Maroubra councillor Michael Daley, and Daley was re-elected in 2007 and 2011.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor came very close to losing Maroubra in 2011, but in normal circumstances the seat is a safe Labor seat. Michael Daley should increase his margin in 2015.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Daley Labor 20,019 44.3 -8.5 44.9
Michael Feneley Liberal 19,737 43.7 +16.0 43.0
Murray Matson Greens 4,504 10.0 -1.9 9.8
Jacquie Shiha Christian Democrats 884 2.0 +2.0 2.0
Others 0.3

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Daley Labor 21,930 51.6 -14.6 52.3
Michael Feneley Liberal 20,607 48.4 +14.6 47.7
Polling places in Maroubra at the 2011 NSW state election. Botany in green, North-East in yellow, South-East in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Maroubra at the 2011 NSW state election. Botany in green, North-East in yellow, South-East in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Maroubra have been split into three parts: Botany in the west, Maroubra in the north-east and Matraville in the south-east.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas: 53.5% in Botany and 56.4% in Matraville. The LNP won 51.1% in Maroubra.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.7% in Matraville to 11.2% in Maroubra.

Voter group ALP 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Maroubra 48.9 11.2 14,857 34.0
Matraville 56.4 7.7 10,877 24.9
Botany 53.5 8.8 6,441 14.8
Other votes 51.8 10.5 11,488 26.3
Two-party-preferred votes in Maroubra at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Maroubra at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Maroubra at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Maroubra at the 2011 NSW state election.

7 COMMENTS

  3. This is my seat.

    Both Mr. Daley and Mr. Roberts were out campaigning outside Pacific Square in Maroubra today and were there last Saturday as well. Dr. Feneley has also been helping Mr. Roberts.

    Mr. Daley will comfortably hold the seat with the new margin to be around 8-10%.

  4. I’m pretty sure that 69 booth is Lurlene Bay – lots of money.

    Labor put a lot of resources sandbagging Maroubra at the last election, an indication of the party’s high esteem of Daley. He’s considered a good talent.

    I’d guess a roughly 10% swing here. Feneley was a strong, high profile candidate that hasn’t been matched this time.

  5. Professor Feneley is a cardiologist and ran as the Liberal candidate for Kingsford Smith in the 2013 federal election. He was defeated then too.

  6. PJ is right. This is one of the seats that the NSW Right went all out to protect from 2011 and you can see why.

  7. I was interested to receive a letter in the mail today just 3 days out from the election from my federal MP Mr. Thistlethwaite over state and federal government cuts to Prince of Wales Hospital.

    I wonder if the polling is reasonably close here, the amount of campaigning on both sides has been as busy as it was in 2011 with corflutes everywhere.

Comments are closed.