Lakemba – NSW 2015

ALP 7.3%

Incumbent MP
Robert Furolo, since 2008.

Geography
South-western Sydney. The seat is mostly contained in Bankstown and Canterbury council areas, along with small parts of Hurstville and Strathfield council areas. Suburbs include Chullora, Greenacre, Lakemba, Mount Lewis, Punchbowl, Roselands and Wiley Park.

Map of Lakemba's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Lakemba’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
The eastern half of Lakemba, including Belmore and Clemton Park, were transferred to Canterbury, and Lakemba also lost parts of Riverwood and Peakhurst to Oatley in exchange for parts of Narwee. In exchange for the area lost to Canterbury, Lakemba has gained Greenacre and Mount Lewis from Bankstown, and Chullora for Auburn. These changes increased the Labor margin from 7% to 7.3%.

History
The electoral district of Lakemba has existed continuously since 1927. In that time, it has always been won by the ALP.

Fred Stanley won the district of Lakemba in 1927. The seat was expected to be won by member for St George, George Cann, but he was expelled from the ALP after opposing Jack Lang’s efforts to centralise power in his hands. Stanley held the seat for the next two decades. In 1949 Stanley didn’t follow the ALP line in casting a vote for a vacancy in the Legislative Council, along with three other ALP MPs. The four MPs were also suspected of having taken cash bribes in exchange for their votes. He was expelled from the ALP in 1950, and lost Lakemba at the 1950 election to the official ALP candidate, Stan Wyatt.

Wyatt held the seat until 1964, when he retired. He served as party whip from 1959 to 1964.

Vince Durick held Lakemba from 1964 until 1984. Wes Davoren followed him, serving from 1984 until his retirement in 1995.

Tony Stewart won Lakemba in 1995. Stewart moved to Bankstown in 1999 to make way for Morris Iemma, whose seat of Hurstville had been abolished by the redistribution. Stewart was re-elected in Bankstown 2003 and 2007. Stewart served as a minister for two months in late 2008, but was removed after he was accused of harrassing a staff member. Stewart is retiring at the upcoming election.

Iemma had won Hurstville in 1991, when it was a highly marginal seat, and he strengthened the ALP’s position in the area. Morris Iemma was appointed to the Carr government’s ministry after the 1999 election, and he worked his way up to the position of Health Minister.

When Bob Carr retired in 2005, Morris Iemma was elected ALP leader and Premier. He won another term for the Labor government in 2007. Following that election, he embarked on plans for privatisation of the NSW electricity industry. These plans deeply divided the ALP, and resulted in Iemma clashing with the ALP state conference. Following these events, Iemma resigned as Premier in September 2008 after losing the support of key powerbrokers.

Iemma resigned from Parliament soon after, triggering a by-election in Lakemba. By-elections were also held in Ryde, Cabramatta and Port Macquarie. The Lakemba by-election was won by Canterbury mayor Robert Furolo with a 13.5% swing against the ALP. Furolo was re-elected in 2011.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Robert Furolo is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Lakemba is a safe Labor seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Robert Furolo Labor 21,595 48.6 -25.3 46.0
Michael Hawatt Liberal 16,333 36.8 +23.6 34.2
Linda Eisler Greens 3,374 7.6 +3.7 5.7
Sungjae Kam Christian Democrats 1,998 4.5 +0.5 4.6
Omar Quiader Independent 1,133 2.5 +2.5 1.8
Others 7.7

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Robert Furolo Labor 22,983 57.0 -27.0 57.3
Michael Hawatt Liberal 17,337 43.0 +27.0 42.7
Polling places in Lakemba at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lakemba at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lakemba have been split into three parts: central, north and south. All those booths in the City of Bankstown were grouped as ‘north’, while those in the City of Canterbury were grouped as ‘central’ and ‘south’.

The ALP’s two-party-preferred vote ranges from 55% in the north to 61% in the centre.

Voter group ALP 2PP % GRN % Total % of votes
Central 60.8 6.7 12,460 29.2
North 55.2 3.4 12,195 28.6
South 57.8 6.3 6,074 14.2
Other votes 54.1 6.7 11,917 27.9
Two-party-preferred votes in Lakemba at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Lakemba at the 2011 NSW state election.

7 COMMENTS

  3. The ALP candidate is the former principal of Punchbowl High School, and he featured on the SBS documentary ‘Once Upon a Time in Punchbowl’.

    It’ll be interesting to see how much Labor can regain here. Lakemba was the safest seat following the 2008 election, held with a margin of 35%.

  6. I think we can all be grown-ups and look passed a name. Barack Obama has managed to, and we should be voting for people of substance anyway, something which Mr Dib certainly possesses.

Comments are closed.