Kogarah – NSW 2015

ALP 5.4%

Incumbent MP
Cherie Burton, since 1999.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Kogarah includes parts of Kogarah, Rockdale and Hurstville local government areas, including the suburbs of Allawah, Carrs Park, Carlton, Kogarah, Bexley, Hurstville, Kingsgrove and Beverly Hills.

Map of Kogarah's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Kogarah’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Kogarah underwent some changes on its border with the neighbouring seat of Oatley. Kogarah lost Blakehurst and Connells Point to Oatley and gained Hurstville from Oatley. These changes increased the Labor margin from 1.9% to 5.4%.

History
The electoral district of Kogarah has existed continuously since 1930. The seat was marginal in the first half of the twentieth century but has been held by the ALP since 1953.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Mark Gosling in 1930. He had held one of the seats in the St George district from 1920 to 1927 and then Oatley from 1927 to 1930. He lost Kogarah after one term in 1932.

The United Australia Party’s James Ross held the seat from 1932 to 1941, when he lost to the Victoria’s Cross recipient William Currey, running for the ALP. Currey held the seat until his death in 1948.

The 1948 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Douglas Cross. Cross lost Kogarah in 1953, but he won the neighbouring seat of Georges River in 1956, holding it until his death in 1970.

Bill Crabtree held Kogarah for the ALP from 1953 to 1983. He served as a minister in the Wran Labor government from 1976 to 1981.

Kogarah was won in 1983 by Brian Langton. He became a minister when the ALP won power in 1995. In 1998, he was forced to resign as a minister after a scandal involving misuse of air travel expenses. He retired from Kogarah in 1999.

Kogarah was won in 1999 by Cherie Burton. She served as a minister from 2005 to 2007. Following the 2007 election she returned to the backbench.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Cherie Burton is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Kogarah is a safe Labor seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Cherie Burton Labor 19,668 44.2 -12.6 47.2
Miray Hindi Liberal 18,360 41.3 +14.3 38.1
Simone Francis Greens 3,952 8.9 +1.8 8.9
Joseph Abdel Massih Christian Democrats 2,507 5.6 +1.6 5.8

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Cherie Burton Labor 21,207 51.9 -15.8 55.4
Miray Hindi Liberal 19,665 48.1 +15.8 44.6
Polling places in Kogarah at the 2011 NSW state election. North-East in green, North-West in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Kogarah at the 2011 NSW state election. North-East in green, North-West in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Kogarah have been split into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.

The ALP’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 52% in the south to 59% in the north-east.

The Greens vote ranged from 7.9% in the north-west to 9.7% in the south. The Christian Democratic Party’s vote was around 5.6%-5.8% in all three areas.

Voter group ALP 2PP % GRN % CDP % Total % of votes
North-East 58.7 8.7 5.6 13,850 30.3
North-West 55.4 7.9 5.8 11,631 25.5
South 52.0 9.7 5.8 7,118 15.6
Other votes 53.2 9.6 5.9 13,061 28.6
Two-party-preferred votes in Kogarah at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Kogarah at the 2011 NSW state election.

6 COMMENTS

  2. While it was marginal in 1995 Nick, it was narrowly retained in 2011, and with the good Liberal areas here now on Oatley, this will be even safer for Labor.

    My prediction: Labor hold, particularly with the redistribution.

  3. Pretty amazed Burton was able to hold on here in 2011, given that she had scandals as well as the fact that it was traditionally quite marginal.

    Nevertheless, given the redistribution this will be safe Labor for the forseeable future. OTOH, Oatley should be pretty safe for the Liberals from now on, despite the small margin.

  4. Burton was an oddly popular local member. I’ve never heard a particular explanation why, but she’s always been among the more popular of state MPs.

    Labor retain with a very modest swing.

  5. Did it have something to do with her lobbying for the re-development of Kogarah Oval, and the general support behind the Dragons?

Comments are closed.