LIB 10.7%
Incumbent MP
Melanie Gibbons, since 2011.
Geography
South-west Sydney. Holsworthy covers south-eastern parts of the City of Liverpool and a small north-western part of Sutherland Shire. Holsworthy covers Barden Ridge, Casula, Chipping Norton, Holsworthy, Lucas Heights, Lurnea, Moorebank, Prestons and Wattle Grove.
Redistribution
Holsworthy is a new name for Menai, which shifted west out of the Sutherland Shire and further into the City of Liverpool. Holsworthy lost Illawong to Miranda and Bangor and Menai to Heathcote, and gained Casula, Lurnea and Prestons from Macquarie Fields. These changes dramatically cut the Liberal margin from 24.4% for Menai in 2011 to 10.7% for Holsworthy.
History
Menai was first created at the 1999 redistribution. The seat was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Alison Megarrity with a 4.2% margin. She was re-elected in 2003 with an increased 9.5% margin.
In 2007, Megarrity won a third term, but with a reduced 2.7% margin.
In 2011, Megarrity retired and Liberal candidate Melanie Gibbons won Menai with a huge 27% swing.
Candidates
- Melanie Gibbons (Liberal)
- Signe Westerberg (Greens)
- Adrian Atelj (No Land Tax)
- Charishma Kaliyanda (Labor)
- Tony Maka (Christian Democratic Party)
- Michael Byrne (Independent)
Assessment
Holsworthy is a key marginal seat, and Labor needs to win it back if they are going to have a chance at forming government. The seat’s margin is just above the swing predicted across NSW by recent polling. There was a huge swing in Menai in 2011, which suggests Labor should be able to gain a solid swing back, but this may not be enough to win Holsworthy. This seat could go either way.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 27,593 | 61.0 | +18.4 | 47.9 |
| Peter Scaysbrook | Labor | 8,732 | 19.3 | -26.1 | 30.1 |
| Simone Morrissey | Greens | 3,502 | 7.7 | +3.2 | 6.0 |
| Jim McGoldrick | Independent | 3,040 | 6.7 | +6.7 | 5.1 |
| Lindsay Johnson | Christian Democrats | 2,371 | 5.2 | +5.2 | 5.5 |
| Others | 5.5 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 29,954 | 74.4 | +27.1 | 60.7 |
| Peter Scaysbrook | Labor | 10,313 | 25.6 | -27.1 | 39.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Holsworthy have been split into two halves: east and west, divided by the Georges River. The “west” area covers all of those booths which were transferred into Holsworthy from Macquarie Fields, while the “east” covers all those previously in Menai.
There is a huge difference in the vote between these two areas. The Liberal Party won a huge 72% of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, while Labor won a slim 52.8% majority in the west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 72.0 | 7.0 | 17,949 | 41.9 |
| West | 47.2 | 3.9 | 16,552 | 38.6 |
| Other votes | 65.0 | 7.8 | 8,379 | 19.5 |
My prediction: Possible Liberal hold, considering the major redistribution here.
Another new marginal seat. (Menai was more of a Liberal leaner.) Bears some similarity to the old Moorebank, which was won by Labor at two close elections, 1991 and 1995.
What to associate with the suburbs surrounded by the Georges River south of Chipping Norton Lake always poses an interesting challenge for the redistribution, state and federal. Here they’ve followed the M5 west into Prestons, which seems as good a solution as any. The geographic anomaly now is Barden Ridge, the last piece of Sutherland shire left over from Menai, which is rather isolated from the rest of the electorate.
I’d imagine this would be probably the furthest gain Labor could make.
Labor is very hopeful with their candidate Charishma Kaliyanda and I’d imagine she could overturn melanie Gibbons overblown margin, who would be disadvataged here being Shire-based (the old seat was evenly Liverpool and Shire based) but now only 4000 Shire voters remain in Sandy Point and Barden Ridge.
In a seat with a lot of tradies, electricity privitisation is very unpopular here and will play into Labor’s hands.
If Charishma is elected she would possibly make history as the first non-white MP to ever represent a part of the Sutherland Shire!
This seat is one I’ve been looking forward to. Melanie Gibbons, to my way of thinking, is the best local member anywhere in the country. She is awesome and hard-working, as well as being easy on the eye. The re-distribution hasn’t helped, but I think she will win.
Kaliyanda is the wrong candidate for this seat, and is someone who is better suited to run for Liverpool when Paul Lynch retires. I can’t see a lot of this electorate warming to her as a candidate, as the eastern part of Liverpool, let alone the Shire is less multi-cultural than the western and southern suburbs of Liverpool.
Considering she got done for fraud a couple of years ago i wouldn’t say shes a great MP. Why is Kaliyanda the wrong candidate, she seems to be doing more then Melanie has been. The shire has no relevance here really, this is mainly in the Hughes and Werriwa electorate. I’m thinking this could be a marginal ALP gain
There are less than 4000 votes in the Sutherland Shire now, so it will make absolutely no difference.
I would like to also point out at that the Liverpool Liberal Mayor is Lebanese Muslim, so your sentiment about Charishma being the wrong candidate for this electorate is unfounded.
Indians are in fact the largest migrant group in this part of Sydney.
$3.35 for Labor here. Sounds very generous.
Generous towards the Liberals, or Labor?
Good find Nick. I’ve jumped on that.
To answer some of the comments made over the past couple of days.
I am of the understanding that the issue regarding the failure to disclose donations occurred when she was a councillor on the Sutherland Shire Council, and was an extremely tiny account, although still in breach of the act. No conviction was recorded, from my understanding, and Gibbons was most contrite about her actions. Certainly, her record as an MP far overshadows this unfortunate episode with being a tireless advocate for the electorate. As far as MP’s go, as grateful as I am to have Chris Patterson as my local member (Camden has a proud tradition of excellent local members), I would definitely plump for Melanie Gibbons over Chris, that’s how good I believe her to be.
In regards to Charishma Kaliyanda, I did point out, in fairness, that the Eastern side of Liverpool is a lot less multicultural than the other parts of Liverpool. The Eastern side of Liverpool is a fairly significant proportion of this electorate, and is key to either candidate winning. Having extensive experience of the wider Fairfield/Liverpool area (I was born in Liverpool, and spent my entire upbringing and early adult years in the region, and maintain links to the area), I do not believe that this is the seat that Kaliyanda could build a personal vote. The eastern side of Liverpool is known for its independent quirks of nature, and is not really a transient area, although as I note from a previous post, the Indian population is growing, but not enough to make this a winner for Kaliyanda. I am of the belief that Kaliyanda could well have a bright future in politics. A future mayor of Liverpool, Member for Fowler, or even the next Liverpool MP possibly awaits. Certainly, she is the brightest ALP prospect in Liverpool since the trio of Paul Lynch, Mark Latham and Craig Knowles, all politicians of substance. However, I strongly doubt she will win. Gibbons’ campaign has been very strong on the ground, and a friend of mine who traditionally votes Labor, actually voted Liberal at the pre-poll booth yesterday. Her comments to me about her vote told me everything that Kaliyanda is up against, especially the warm and personable style of Gibbons in her election pamphlets, as well as the positive achievements of the Baird Government in the wider Holworthy electorate.
$3.35 is excellent odds in a two-horse race such as this one. Certainly, I would be tempted to lay an lazy $20 on those odds. However, my prediction is, barring an enormous stuff-up in the last week of the campaign from Baird or Gibbons, the Liberal Party will win Holsworthy in the region of 52-55% 2PP. If Gibbons does lose, I do hope she is offered a seat in the Legislative Council, or the Senate, as she would be a loss for those who appreciate conscientious local MPs.
Darkhorse tip for this seat: back Michael Byrne to come third ahead of the Greens.
Due to the redistribution, this seat shifted westward into Labor voting suburbs like Casula and Lurnea. It even shifted into a booming part of Prestons where new homes keep popping up.This area is ultra diverse- many people of Indian background but also many people from Fiji, Pakistan and Bangladesh. There’s no doubt these voters will be attracted to Charisma and she will easily win in the western end of the seat- about 1/3 voters in the seat live out there.
You then have Wattle Grove + Voyager Point on the Eastern half which are almost just as diverse (similar demographics to western end). The rest of the suburbs are (as DLH stated) quite Anglo- Chipping Norton, Moorebank, Barden Ridge… There’s no doubt though that at least half the suburbs in Holsworthy are quite multicultural with a strong South Asian flavour.
Gibbons will be favourite to win but this is a seat where the ethnic vote can make a big difference to the outcome.
After all the bloody calls ive got from Mike Baird I don’t want Gibbons to win.
However i could never vote for Labor and the greens are twice as bad. That means I have the following candidates:
– Adrian Atelj (No Land Tax)
– Tony Maka (Christian Democratic Party)
– Michael Byrne (Independent)
Mr no land tax i can’t find anything on. However i like the sound of his policy.
The CDP bloke looks like a Douche bag and seems to have tried to get on any ticket he can for the last few years, if linked in is correct.
Mr Byrne has a web page but all he seems to want yo talk about isvthe intermodal.
Its really a 2 horse race and given the useless (as expected ) green candidate and all the other uselessness that has been put up. Therefore i think I’ll have to go with Gibbons even though the liberal party has annoyed the shit out of me.
However i think Gibbons will be pushing it up hill with the local demographics and the fact that the Labour candidate will get any of the twats who vote Green.
Mixed emotions.
Douche bag? Lol love that loose head prop, I am sure you are one to judge.
I am however with your anti left sentiments.