Epping – NSW 2015

LIB 27.5%

Incumbent MP
Greg Smith, since 2007.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Epping mainly covers southern parts of Hornsby Shire, along with small parts of the City of Parramatta and the City of Ryde. It covers the suburbs of Epping, Cherrybrook, Cheltenham, Beecroft and Pennant Hills.

Map of Epping's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Epping’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Epping shifted north-west, losing north-eastern areas to Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai and a small area at the southern edge to Ryde, and gaining Cherrybrook and Rogans Hill from Hornsby at the north-western end of the seat. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 25.2% to 27.5%.

History
The seat of Epping was created at the 1999 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party at all three elections since 1999.

Epping was first won by Andrew Tink in 1999. He had been the Liberal Member for Eastwood since 1988. Eastwood had been a safe Liberal seat in the area since 1950.

Tink held Epping at the 1999 and 2003 elections. He announced his retirement in 2006. Liberal preselection for Epping was won by former prosecutor Greg Smith, who defeated former Sex Discrimination Commissioner Pru Goward. She went on to win the seat of Goulburn, and Smith won Epping.

Smith was re-elected to a second term in 2011. He served as Attorney-General in the O’Farrell government from 2011 to 2014.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Greg Smith is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Epping is a safe Liberal seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Greg Smith Liberal 27,543 61.4 +18.6 62.8
Amy Smith Labor 7,142 15.9 -10.0 14.5
Emma Heyde Greens 6,691 14.9 +2.7 12.0
John Kingsmill Christian Democrats 1,775 4.0 -0.3 3.8
Victor Waterson Independent 1,162 2.6 +2.6 1.5
John Thomas Family First 542 1.2 +1.2 1.2
Others 4.1

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Greg Smith Liberal 29,881 75.2 +17.2 77.5
Amy Smith Labor 9,868 24.8 -17.2 22.5
Polling places in Epping at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in orange, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Epping at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in orange, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Epping have been split into three areas: central, north and south.

At the last election, the Greens came close to overtaking Labor in Epping, but the gap has widened due to the redistribution.

The Liberal Party won a large majority of the primary vote in each area, ranging from 59% in the south to 64% in the north.

Labor’s vote ranged from 11.5% in the north to 19.5% in the south, while the Greens vote ranged from 7.5% in the north to 15.1% in the centre.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total % of votes
Central 63.6 14.4 15.1 12,757 26.8
North 63.9 11.5 7.5 12,508 26.3
South 59.2 19.5 13.9 9,691 20.4
Other votes 63.7 13.7 12.0 12,586 26.5
Two-party-preferred votes in Epping at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Epping at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Epping at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Epping at the 2011 NSW state election.

13 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting how voting becomes more conservative towards the north of the electorate. I’ve lived in both Beecroft (south) and Cherrybrook (north) and I think that redistributing Cherrybrook into the District of Epping was a questionable decision.

  3. The current seat of Epping is essentially the southern half of the former seat of Northcott with the addition of the northern tip of the former seat of Eastwood . Cherrybrook spent maybe 1 term as part of Hornsby but had previously been part of The Hills (now Castle Hill) and also Northcott,

  5. Interesting how voting becomes more conservative towards the north of the electorate.

    Given how much more multicultural Epping (the suburb) is than the rest of the seat, I’m surprised how slight the difference is.

    I’ve lived in both Beecroft (south) and Cherrybrook (north) and I think that redistributing Cherrybrook into the District of Epping was a questionable decision.

    I’m curious as to why you think so. As a former resident of Pennant Hills, I would not have thought Cherrybrook lacks any ‘community of interest’ with the rest of the electorate.

  7. This seat was the subject of a big pre-selection battle following the re-distribution. The early rumour was that there was going to be a pre-selection challenge between Dom Perrottet and Greg Smith over this seat. The battles for pre-selection continued with Greg’s son, Nathaniel showing interest in the seat until it was taking by Damien Tudehope.

  8. Being a long term resident of the Hornsby area (who’s sister lived for 20 odd years in Cherrybrook), here’s my 10c worth regarding Cherrybrook’s “community of interest”. Pennant Hills or Thornleigh DO remain the nearest stations for those rail commuting to the city. Regarding schools, Cherrybrook PS actually predated the residential development with John Purchase a later addition. Pennant Hills HS would’ve been the state school option but the establishment of Cherrybrook HS largely broke that link. Hornsby would’ve been the major service/shopping hub for the early days but is less so now. Whilst it has it’s own shopping centre near the southern end; the size of the sprawl, the development of Castle Towers (and the rundown of Hornsby in the 90’s) saw a major reset. Whilst the Westfield Hornsby redevelopment has seen some of the Cherrybrook business return; the proximity of Castle Hill for a large sector of Cherrybrook makes IT the primary service hub and the greatest “community of interest”

  10. Lib members in Epping must be on the extreme end of conservatism to preselect Smith and now Tudehope. They would both be among the most socially conservative MPs in the NSW Parliament, which is saying something! No chance of any other result, but there must be some space for progressive/centrist candidates to run a campaign here. I doubt most of the good residents of Epping are as far-right as their current or future members.

  11. Much was made of the conservative Smith defeating the moderate Goward in 2007. Ironically, Smith fell out with the hardliners when he refused to back mandatory sentencing as AG.

  12. watch the massive swing to Kerry Fox the independent. The ETTT, 30000 trees lost, & trashing on community amenities by the O’Farrell/ Baird government’s rush to infrastructure, along with the closure/downgrading of the of Epping to Chastwood Line (abolishment of direct train services into the city by 2018) will haemorrhage the Liberal party vote in Beecroft, Cheltenham & Epping.

  13. (Different Michael here)

    The independent is running a good campaign but I think this seat will be an easy retain for the government. I also predict that there will be a higher than average swing against the Libs in Beecroft, Cheltenham and most likely Epping.

    The northern end of this electorate, which is Cherrybrook and some of Castle Hill is different, they aren’t affected by the ETTT (Epping to Thornleigh Third track) and would be pleased that the North West rail link is now under construction. I think there will be a less than average swing against the Libs in the northern end of the electorate.

    Many voters won’t consider the conversion from double deck to more frequent & automated single deck (what they use in Tokyo, Singapore, Paris, etc.) a downgrade, but losing a direct service into the city on the northern line is a different story.

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