Bega – NSW 2015

LIB 18.5%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Constance, since 2011.

Geography
South-eastern NSW. Bega covers all of Eurobodalla and Bega Valley shires. The seat covers the towns of Bega, Eden, Batemans Bay and Moruya.

Map of Bega's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Bega’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Bega expanded slightly, taking in a small part of Bega Valley Shire previously included in Monaro, including the town of Bemboka.

History
Bega in its current form has existed since 1988. It has always been held by the Liberal Party. A seat of the same name also existed from 1894 to 1920.

The seat was won in 1988 by the Liberal Party’s Russell Smith. He held the seat until his retirement in 2003.

Andrew Constance has held Bega since 2003 for the Liberal Party. Constance has served as a minister since 2011, and as Treasurer since 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Bega’s history would suggest that it is a safe Liberal seat, and that is likely to be the case. However the seat is the most marginal electorate that was not held by Labor prior to the 2007 election, and the second-most marginal seat held by the Coalition before the 2011 landslide. On a uniform swing, the Liberal Party losing Bega would suggest Labor was on the verge of forming a majority government.

Having said that, the swing in Bega in 2011 was well below the statewide average, and it’s likely to be the same this time. Constance is now a prominent MP, serving as Treasurer for the last year. These factors suggest that the Liberal Party shouldn’t have too much trouble retaining Bega.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Constance Liberal 26,122 59.0 +12.1 58.9
Leanne Atkinson Labor 9,749 22.0 -12.9 22.1
Harriett Swift Greens 5,358 12.1 +4.6 12.1
Ivan McKay Independent 2,341 5.3 +5.3 5.2
Ursula Bennett Christian Democrats 716 1.6 0.0 1.6
Others 0.1

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Constance Liberal 27,369 68.6 +13.6 68.5
Leanne Atkinson Labor 12,505 31.4 -13.6 31.5
Polling places in Bega at the 2011 NSW state election. Bega Valley North in blue, Bega Valley South in yellow, Eurobodalla North in orange, Eurobodalla South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Bega at the 2011 NSW state election. Bega Valley North in blue, Bega Valley South in yellow, Eurobodalla North in orange, Eurobodalla South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Bega have been split into four parts. Each local government area in the electorate was split into north and south halves. The town of Bega is contained in Bega Valley North, and Batemans Bay is contained in Eurobodalla North.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 64.5% in Bega Valley North and 64.6% in Eurobodalla South to 72.5% in Bega Valley South.

The Greens vote ranged from 10.1% in Bega Valley South to 15.9% in Bega Valley North.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Eurobodalla North 67.1 11.7 11,731 26.2
Bega Valley South 72.5 10.1 8,743 19.5
Bega Valley North 64.5 15.9 6,910 15.4
Eurobodalla South 64.6 13.9 4,706 10.5
Other votes 70.6 11.2 12,666 28.3
Two-party-preferred votes in Bega at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Bega at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Bega at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Bega at the 2011 NSW state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting seat – like the North Coast, the ALP do quite well here federally. A good campaign might see it flip. Question is, will that happen?

  2. Yes, the federal results are interesting. According to Poll Bludger’s number crunching, Mike Kelly did just as well in Bega as he did in Monaro.

    Even the pendulum suggests it’s theoretically competitive – sitting between Drummoyne and Heathcote.

  3. Labor would dearly love to knock off a senior minister like Constance, but I think the Liberals will be able to hold on.

  4. Liberal retain.

    But would like to know why the Nationals wouldn’t be more used to contesting a mainly rural seat like Bega rather than Monaro, which in my eyes would be a more Liberal seat due to consisting mostly of Queanbeyan suburbs?

    Strong Green vote here (great candidate in Margaret Perger) but to a lesser extent of the Far North Coast and big retiree (mostly ex-Victorian) population.

  6. Odd that Labor could win South Coast at their 1999 highpoint but never this Bega was on paper a 50/50 seat when created.

Comments are closed.