Baulkham Hills – NSW 2015

LIB 28.3%

Incumbent MP
David Elliott, since 2011.

Geography
North-western Sydney. Baulkham Hills covers southern parts of the Hills Shire, including the suburbs of Bella Vista, Baulkham Hills and parts of Carlingford, Castle Hill, Kellyville, North Rocks and West Pennant Hills.

Map of Baulkham Hills' 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Baulkham Hills’ 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Baulkham Hills shifted east, gaining parts of Castle Hill and West Pennant Hills from Castle Hill, and losing Northmead, Winston Hills and parts of North Rocks to Seven Hills and Parramatta. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 26.4% to 28.3%.

History
The seat of Baulkham Hills has existed since 1991. It has always been a safe Liberal seat. Prior to 1991, much of the same area had been covered by Carlingford from its creation in 1988 to its abolition in 1991.

Carlingford was won in 1988 by Liberal candidate Wayne Merton. Merton then won the new seat of Baulkham Hills in 1991, and held it until retiring in 2011. He served as a minister in the state Coalition government from 1992 to 1993.

While there have been two seats in the Hills since 1988, and they have both been solid Liberal seats, the boundaries of those seats have shifted. The other seat in the area was called The Hills until 2007, and had always been held by Liberal MPs.

Following Merton’s retirement in 2011, Baulkham Hills was won by the Liberal Party’s David Elliott.

Candidates

Assessment
Baulkham Hills is a very safe Liberal seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Elliott Liberal 31,000 66.0 +14.4 67.9
Tony Hay Labor 8,337 17.7 -13.3 16.2
Mick Hollins Greens 5,360 11.4 +3.9 9.9
Kaia Thorpe Christian Democrats 2,280 4.9 0.0 4.3
Others 1.8

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Elliott Liberal 32,963 76.4 +15.9 78.4
Tony Hay Labor 10,161 23.6 -15.9 21.6
Polling places in Baulkham Hills at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, East in orange, North in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Baulkham Hills at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, East in orange, North in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Baulkham Hills have been split into three parts: central, east and north.

The Liberal Party won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote over Labor in all three areas – all between 78% and 79%.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.3% in the east to 11.3% in the centre.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
East 8.3 78.8 15,163 32.4
Central 11.3 78.5 15,117 32.3
North 9.7 78.0 10,259 21.9
Other votes 10.7 78.2 6,294 13.4
Two-party-preferred votes in Baulkham Hills at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Baulkham Hills at the 2011 NSW state election.

2 COMMENTS

  2. Ryan Tracey ran for Castle Hill in 2011. Running for Baulkham Hills here. About the only Labor presence in the Hills area at all now.

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