LIB 16.1% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Peter Debnam, since 1994.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Vaucluse covers most of Woollahra local government area and half of Waverley local government area. It covers the suburbs of Watsons Bay, Vaucluse, Dover Heights, Bondi Beach, Bellevue Hill, Double Bay, Darling Point and Point Piper.
History
Vaucluse has existed since the 1927 election. In its history, it has always been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.
The seat was first won in 1927 by Nationalist candidate William Foster. He held the seat until his death in 1936.
The seat was won at the 1936 Vaucluse by-election by independent UAP candidate Murray Robson. He soon joined the United Australia Party and held his seat for over two decades. He took a leave of absence to serve as a military officer during the Second World War, but continued to hold his seat.
Robson became leader of the NSW Liberal Party and Leader of the Opposition in 1954 as a compromise candidate after a tied ballot. He held the leadership for only thirteen months before he was replaced in 1955. He was re-elected in 1956, and then retired in 1957.
The 1957 Vaucluse by-election was won by Liberal candidate Geoffrey Cox. He was re-elected in 1959 and 1962, and held office until he committed suicide in his Parliament House office in 1964.
No by-election was held following Cox’s death, and Liberal candidate Keith Doyle won Vaucluse at the 1965 election. He held his seat until his retirement in 1978.
Rosemary Foot won Vaucluse for the Liberal Party in 1978. She served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1983 to 1986, when she retired.
Ray Aston won the Vaucluse by-election in 1986, and was re-elected in 1988, but he died later that year.
The 1988 Vaucluse by-election was won by Michael Yabsley. He had been Liberal Member for Bligh from 1984 to 1988, when he was defeated by independent Clover Moore. Yabsley was immediately appointed to the ministry after winning the by-election. He stepped down from the ministry in 1992 and retired in 1994.
The 1994 Vaucluse by-election was won by Peter Debnam. He joined the Opposition frontbench in 1997. In 2005, he was elected Leader of the Opposition, and led the Liberal-National coalition into the 2007 election. He stepped down as leader following the 2007 election. He continued as a frontbencher until May 2008, when he resigned in protest at his party’s plan to support the ALP’s privatisation of the electricity industry.
Candidates
- Pauline Neill (Labor)
- Beresford Thomas (Christian Democratic Party)
- Gabrielle Upton (Liberal)
- Susan Jarnason (Greens)
Political situation
Vaucluse is a very safe Liberal seat. The Greens should be able to take more votes away from the Labor Party, but this will not likely have much of an impact on the two-party-preferred margin in the current environment where the Liberal Party is performing strongly.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Debnam | LIB | 24,377 | 59.9 | +6.1 |
| David Shoebridge | GRN | 8,319 | 20.4 | +3.7 |
| Alison Rahill | ALP | 7,992 | 19.6 | -5.8 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Debnam | LIB | 24,986 | 66.1 | |
| David Shoebridge | GRN | 12,842 | 33.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Vaucluse have been divided into three areas. “Bondi” covers all booths in Waverley council area. Booths in Woollahra council have been divided between “Vaucluse”, covering those suburbs along the peninsula, and “Woollahra” at the western end of the seat.
The Liberal Party’s primary vote varied from almost 68% in Vaucluse, to just under 64% in Woollahra, down to under 50% in Bondi. Bondi was the best area for both the Greens and Labor. Despite the Greens coming second overall, they were outpolled by Labor in Bondi, 26% to 24%. The Greens outpolled Labor in the other two areas.
| Voter group | LIB % | GRN % | ALP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Woollahra | 63.9 | 20.1 | 16.0 | 11,919 | 29.3 |
| Bondi | 49.6 | 24.3 | 26.2 | 10,398 | 25.6 |
| Vaucluse | 67.8 | 16.7 | 15.5 | 7,900 | 19.4 |
| Other votes | 59.7 | 19.8 | 20.4 | 10,471 | 25.7 |
Isn’t it typical that the more upmarket the area (and they don’t come more upmarket than the areas contained in the seat of Vaucluse) the more likely that it will vote Liberal.
My prediction: Liberal retain, 5-10% swing.
Vaucluse has never voted in a labor minister neither has the associated federal seat of wentworth voted in a labor minister. so i with no doubts predict liberal retain
Vaucluse contains the rolled gold Liberal core of Wentworth that keeps it Liberal despite being drawn further south & west into less friendly turf.
Vaucluse or whatever State seat covers this turf will never elect anything other than a conservative MP. End of story.
dirkprovin
Actually Turnbull almost lost the first time he ran for election … but to the existing Liberal candidate who was disendorsed
The only interesting thing about the last election was that 600 ALP 1st preference vote went to the Liberal candidate on 2pp rather than the Green or exhausting, I cannot figure out any reason for that
I thought Peter Fraser { Former COS to Brogdan} was running…..
dovif, maybe there was some personal vote for Debnam from those 600 ALP voters?
Dovif,
Am well aware of the King/Turnbull stoush …. and the political history of Wentworth. Re leakage of ALP away from Green, this is not an unknown phenomena. Sometimes a repellant candidate can be a factor; a reaction to a perceived extremism; even an aversion amongst certain ethnic groupings that may have leaned ALP. Saw this in my Fed electorate at 2009 by-election where the traditional strong ALP booths did not mirror such support for the Green as a “proxy”.
Lots of Upton posters up arond the electorate. The Labor cadidate has very small a-4 sized posters which she puts up at eye level on light poles. She only looks about 21.
There are also quite a few Green posters around, but I haven’t seen much on the ground campaigning by the Greens this time. Only Ms Upton has put anything in our mailbox in Bellevue Hill.