Tweed – NSW 2011

NAT 3.0%

Incumbent MP
Geoff Provest, since 2007.

Geography
Northern NSW.

History
The current electoral district of Tweed has existed since 1999. It was held by the ALP from 1999 to 2007 and by the Nationals since 2007.

Tweed replaced the district of Murwillumbah, which had taken up the northeastern corner of NSW from its creation in 1988 until 1999. It was held by Don Beck of the Nationals for its entire existence.

Beck had previously held the seat of Byron from 1984 to 1988. Byron had been a solid Country/National seat from 1927 until its abolition in 1988, when it was split into Ballina and Murwillumbah.

After Murwillumbah was replaced by Tweed at the 1999 election, Beck ran for the seat as the National Party candidate. He lost to the ALP candidate, Neville Newell.

A former teacher, Newell had won the federal seat of Richmond off National Party leader Charles Blunt at the 1990 election. He was re-elected in 1993 and lost his federal seat in 1996.

Newell won Tweed in 1999 with a 2.6% margin. This was increased in 2003 to 3.8%.

In 2007, Newell lost Tweed to Nationals candidate Geoff Provest.

Candidates

Political situation
Tweed is very marginal, but in current circumstances it should be retained by the Nationals.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Provest NAT 18,585 46.2 +4.6
Neville Newell ALP 15,531 38.6 -7.1
Tom Tabart GRN 3,116 7.7 +0.2
Gavin Lawrie IND 1,225 3.0 +3.0
Julie Boyd IND 1,222 3.0 +3.0
Will King AAFI 540 1.3 +1.3

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Provest NAT 19,435 53.0 +7.1
Neville Newell ALP 17,257 47.0 -7.1

Booth breakdown
Booths in Tweed have been divided into four areas. The urban area in the northeastern corner of the seat has been divided between Tweed Heads on the Queensland border, and to the south of it Banora Point. The remainder of the seat has been divided into South and West.

The Nationals won majorities in three of the four areas, winning around 58% in Banora Point and the west, and 51.6% in Tweed Heads itself. The ALP won 51.6% in the south of the seat.

Polling booths in Tweed at the 2007 state election. Tweed in orange, Banora Point in blue, South in yellow, West in green.
Voter group GRN % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Banora Point 5.5 57.9 9,034 22.5
Tweed Heads 7.1 51.6 8,921 22.2
South 12.1 48.4 8,594 21.4
West 9.8 58.3 4,384 10.9
Other votes 5.6 51.1 9,286 23.1
Two-party-preferred votes in Tweed at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Tweed at the 2007 state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. The current Coalition Agreement between the NSW Nationals & the Liberal Party prohibits any three-cornered contests in the March State election. So, van Lieshout cannot run as a Lib or use Lib branding. Provest has worked hard to consolidate his ’07 victory.

  2. The Greens have recently announced their candidate for the district, Andrea Vickers. No ALP candidate is yet announced, apparently.

  4. Geoff Robinson, that would partly be due to Green voters having to preference, rather than having the option to exhaust, this is particularly true in Ballina.

  5. Yeah, believe Matt is correct. Plus, Labor tend to run better campaigns at federal level on the North Coast. Labor did hold Tweed for a couple of elections so it’s not like they never win up here.

  6. Ben, minor criticism here. I don’t think it makes sense to include the Chinderah booth with Banora Point – there is a river in between and the voting pattern is completely different.

    I doubt either Skinner or van Lieshout would be serious contenders should they run. Expect Provest to get a significant ‘sophomore surge’ especially given Labor won’t devote any resources here having lost it last time.

    Vickers has a high profile having been a spokesperson for the campaigns against the World Rally Championship and the Byrrill Creek Dam. Expect a solid increase in the Greens vote given they actually have a local candidate this time.

    Provest’s 2007 campaign was very effective (and indeed, big budget), resulting in a swing which was about twice the state average.

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