Swansea – NSW 2011

ALP 10.8%

Incumbent MP
Robert Coombs, since 2007.

Geography
Swansea covers parts of the City of Lake Macquarie and Wyong Shire on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, between the lake and the Pacific Ocean. The seat covers the suburbs of Budgewoi, Swansea and Belmont.

History
The seat of Swansea was first created for the 1981 election. With the exception of the 1988 election, when it was won by an independent, the seat has always been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1981 by Don Bowman of the ALP. In 1988, Bowman lost to the independent Ivan Welsh, Mayor of Lake Macquarie. Welsh held the seat for one term, losing again to Bowman in 1991.

Bowman retired in 1995, and was succeeded by Lake Macquarie councillor Jill Hall. Hall served less than one term in Swansea, resigning in 1998 to contest and win the federal seat of Shortland. She has held Shortland ever since, winning a fifth term in 2010.

Due to the impending state election, no by-election was held in Swansea in 1998. At the election in March 1999 the seat was won by Lake Macquarie councillor Milton Orkopoulos. Orkopoulos was re-elected, and was promoted to the ministry in 2005.

In 2006, Orkopoulos was charged with offenses related to child sex and drugs. He was immediately expelled from the ALP and removed as a minister. He resigned from Parliament in late 2006, close to the 2007 state election. Orkopoulos was later convicted and is currently serving a prison sentence.

Swansea was won in 2007 by Robert Coombs of the ALP.

Candidates

Political situation
Swansea’s 10.8% margin would normally be considered safe, but in the current climate could be vulnerable to a strong Liberal campaign. While it is possible that the ALP could suffer a backlash from the activities of the former member, the ALP already suffered a swing of over 6% in 2007. The ALP’s biggest threat could come from a strong independent, as is the case in many other Hunter seats.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Coombs ALP 19,979 45.9 -11.4
Garry Edwards LIB 10,345 23.8 -4.5
Laurie Coghlan IND 6,453 14.8 +14.8
Sue Wynn GRN 3,739 8.6 +2.3
Jill Wood CDP 1,413 3.2 +2.8
Barbara Abrahams AAFI 1,038 2.4 +0.5
Peter Lee DEM 574 1.3 -1.1

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Coombs ALP 22,828 60.8 -6.3
Garry Edwards LIB 14,741 39.2 +6.3

Booth breakdown
The seat of Swansea includes parts of Wyong Shire and the City of Lake Macquarie. All booths in Wyong have been grouped together. Booths in Lake Macquarie have been divided between Belmont in the north and Swansea in the centre of the seat.

The ALP won a majority of 63-64% in the south and centre of the seat, and a smaller majority in the Belmont area in the north of the seat. The independent candidate Coghlan polled much stronger in the City of Lake Macquarie, where he is a local councillor, polling 16% in the centre of the seat and over 20% in the north. The Greens outpolled Coghlan in the south of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Swansea at the 2007 state election. Belmont in green, Swansea in red, Wyong in blue.

 

Voter group IND % GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Belmont 20.3 8.2 56.8 14,184 32.6
Wyong 8.7 9.7 63.1 12,137 27.9
Swansea 16.2 8.4 64.2 9,068 20.8
Other votes 12.8 7.8 60.9 8,152 18.7
Two-party-preferred votes in Swansea at the 2007 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Laurie Coghlan in Swansea at the 2007 state election.

27 COMMENTS

  2. We here at newcastle fishing have been trying to get a reply from Mr. Garry Edwards for more than 1 month now requesting a meeting to discuss fishermen and boating concerns in and around Lake Macquarie, and to tell us (around 10,000 elegible voters) both what his plans and his parties plans are. As yet we have had no reply,
    Personal comment how can you vote for a candidate who won’t even communiucate, with the people he hopes to be representing.
    Over the past year actually Feb 2010 we asked the same of the soon be be x member coombes similar questions and you guessed it still no answer. Flip a coin they’re all as bad as each other.

  3. Then perhaps its time for a change, leave them both on the fence and vote for the Independent. From what I hear she has some great policies for helping the Swansea Electorate get back on track…..

  4. Swansea is a real enigma. Given Labor retained the seat after the performance of Milton what can you say about Labor support in that seat other than that is indestructable. The moral and ethical bankruptcy demonstrated by the current Labor government is most likely off the agenda or beyond the comprehension of Swansea Labor voters. That will see Robert Coombs returned regardless of the logic or effort of other candidates…that hurts! Appears as thought the primary vote will be more concentrated than other Hunter seats with no high profile independents standing. Jillian Sneddon has a profile however whether she can translate this into votes must be questioned given her narrow (yet understandable) platform. The Greens will be there – that probably won’t aid Coombs as they will attract a % of his historical vote…only remains to be seen whether Garry Edwards can gather enough primary votes to roll Coombs…a straight switch from Labor to Liberal is logical given the abysmal peformance by Keneally however voters in the Hunter have demonstrated (more often than not) they support a team – and the teams performance dosn’t necessarily influence the vote.

  5. Following a member of the public contacting Mr Edwards we at newcastlefishing have now got an appointment for consultation with mr Edwards where we hope to achieve good things for the anglers and boaters of n.s.w. and the Swansea ELectorate. We can guarantee the liberal party candidate for Swansea around 6000 votes and the libs in charlestown and newcastle several thousand more – probably enough to take the seat of Swansea from Labor, in a few yrs the fishing and boating community will be ready to take all parties on, Fishing and boating is the largest passtime in Australia and we united will topple every major political party in this country if we need to, lets hope we don’t have to do that.

  6. Some big assumptions about what shfits votes in this last comment.

    The problem is that it is not clear how many of the people you claim to speak for already vote Liberal – are you saying that you have 6,000 ALP voters who will change their vote and vote Liberal just on the issue that you are concerned about?

    probably too late – the opionion polls suggest that a large number of ALp voters have already decided to vote Liberal and whatever you might say on behalf of your lobby group will make little difference to the outcome.

    Not a good election for lobby groups pushing a specific barrow.

  7. My prediction: Extremely hard to call, I’d favour Sneddon (IND), but Swansea is definitely in the “one-to-watch” category.

  8. If Gillian Sneddon polls well, and picks up the Liberal preferences, then I think the ALP may realise that their tenancy of Swansea is Leasehold, not Freehold. A lot of people believe that the ALP have treated both Gillian and Swansea badly, and that she has the guts to stand up and be counted when it is needed. I suspect that she is underfunded, and it would be good to see a win for the silent majority. The ticket line “there is no spin with Gillian” is an attractive option.

  9. Philip Barrington

    I am thinking with every poll suggesting at least 10% ALP votes being lost by the ALP to the Liberals and most polls suggesting 20%. the likelyhood is ifIGillian Sneddon polls well, and picks up the Labor preferences, she can overhaul the Liberal primary led

  10. If Gillian Sneddon wins I will laugh long and heartily! And a certain ex Premier will not feel so good.

  11. Gillian Sneddon stands for what we all want……. a middle ground……
    A clear-thinking, strong-willed Woman, who won’t be steam-rolled by those who think they have all the power.
    If you want something done in the Swansea Electorate, Gillian is the Woman to go to. Voted in, we will see some changes around here…..

    @Jeranglism – Make your vote count…..

    I’ll be voting Gillian, and that’s all I’ll be voting…… preferences can go and get stuffed!!!

  12. Naomi, you obviously weren’t at the Lake Macquarie Council meeting last night when Garry Edwards the Liberal candidate for Swansea announced Gillian Sneddon has done a preference deal with him. So much for her saying she won’t be affiliated with any major parties, A VOTE FOR GILLIAN IS NOW A VOTE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY! and so much for anyone saying she won’t be directing preferences. A true Independent stays away from the major parties, now Gillian will end up just compromising herself, unfortunately.

  13. In todays news, Pauline Hanson is now running for an Upper House seat, what on earth?????
    This womans jumps all over the place, first it was she was leaving to live in England as she was tired of us here, then she came back saying there were too many immigrants?? Pauline unless you are an aboriginal, your family must have also been immigrants. Did the world fall apart??

  15. @ Verita

    You are correct, I was not in attandance at the Council meeting last night, and I agree with you in saying that a true Independent stays away from the major parties.

    !!!!A VOTE FOR GILLIAN SNEDDON, IS NOT A VOTE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY!!!!

    If you would be so kind as to view Gillians Facebook page, “Vote 1 Gillian Sneddon”, you will see for yourself that there has been no decision made regarding Preferences.

    For all your CORRECT information regarding Gillians Policies and decisions, you will find them there.

    In general, Preferences are not mandatory in this State Election, it is a decision of each individual voter as to who, or better still IF, they put numbers in boxes other than the “1”.

    I will be putting “1” next to Gillians name and as I have mentioned previously, it’s about the educated vote, I know that I don’t have to put any preferences on my ballot paper, and when we discuss Preferences it is purely a piece of paper which is asking you if you will number the boxes in the way that a Candidate has asked you to on their “How-To-Vote” card.

  17. I was not at the council meeting the other night either but Garry Edwards was and he never mentioned anything about preference deals with Gillian describing it as b***s***. This has been confirmed by another councillor who was in attendance. If people are to post details of conversations please make sure that the contents are accurate. There is far too much of this kind of muckraking in election campaigns and the falsity of this report by Verita will be revealed in the coming days when the how to vote cards are released.

  19. It ended up not being the Libs ( after certain people were running all around town spruiking that it was) but Gillian has obtained the 2nd spot on the Greens How to Vote card, perhaps this is better as its in keeping with her policies and she won’t have to compromise herself by dealing with O’Farrell. As people are more environmentally conscious these days this should serve her well.

  20. As for most people in this state, I would imagine, it is time to move ahead and give the ALP the “flick”. I am very reluctant however to walk into a booth and just hand over to the Liberals. I have lived in Belmont for over 10 years and not once can I recall a leaflet, knock on the front door or any upfront information from the Libs., let alone who the hell is Garry Edwards. I am willing to give Gillian Sneddon my vote, although Greens preferences is not really my cup of tea. Any person, more particularly a woman, who is willing to stand up for her “true” principles and take on the ALP, well known for it’s corruptness and incompetence is good enough for me.

  23. Green are Preferencing Gillian, Gillian has on her How-To-Vote cards, Vote 1 Gillian, with a preference to Greens if you so desire…..

    I say VOTE 1 GILLIAN SNEDDON!!!!!!

    She will FIGHT for Fairer Workers Compensation Laws, an Ambulance Station to be built at Swansea, funding for a new bridge down there, an Overhaul of the Dept of Community Services,oh the list goes on………

  24. The major parties aren’t directing preferences, as for the Christian Democrat Candidate, I don’t even know what she looks like……..

  25. Garry Edwards, Liberal Party is now the winner, the margin is barely over 1% in the Seat of Swansea, 100% of votes have been counted. Watch out Garry, next time in 2015 you will have a small margin to work with.

  26. A bit early to be character slamming, Verita. Give the guy 3 and a half years to prove himself at least. If he doesn’t prove himself, character slam then. But he has just been voted in so give some grace at least! Or is that above you?!

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