ALP 15.1%
Incumbent MP
Virginia Judge, since 2003.
Geography
Inner West Sydney. Strathfield covers parts of Ashfield, Burwood and Strathfield local government areas, specifically the suburbs of Ashfield, Croydon, Burwood, Strathfield, Enfield and parts of Homebush.
History
The electoral district of Strathfield has existed since 1988. The seat was held until 1999 by the Liberal Party, and since 1999 by the ALP.
It was first won in 1988 by Paul Zammit. He had won the seat of Burwood in 1984, holding it for one term before it was abolished. Burwood had been held by conservative candidates for close to a century before the ALP won it in 1978.
Zammit served as a junior minister in the Coalition state government from 1991 to 1995. In 1996, he resigned from Strathfield and won the federal seat of Lowe. He only held it for one term, as he resigned from the Liberal Party in 1998 in protest over aircraft noise. He ran as an independent in Lowe at the 1998 federal election, losing to the ALP’s John Murphy.
The 1996 Strathfield by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Bruce McCarthy.
Prior to the 1999 election, Strathfield was redrawn to take in parts of the abolished Labor seat of Ashfield, cutting back McCarthy’s margin.
At the 1999 election, McCarthy lost to the ALP’s Paul Whelan, the sitting Member for Ashfield. Whelan had held Ashfield since the 1976 election. He had served as a minister in the Wran Labor government from 1981 to 1984. He served as Minister for Police from 1995 to 2001, and as Leader of the House until 2003, when he retired.
Whelan was succeeded by Strathfield mayor Virginia Judge in 2003. She was re-elected in 2007, and has served as a minister in the Labor government since 2008.
Candidates
- Lance Dale (Greens)
- Virginia Judge (Labor)
- Charles Casuscelli (Liberal)
- Mark Sharma (Independent)
- Bill Shailer (Christian Democratic Party)
Political situation
Strathfield covers areas with a long history of electing Liberals. The area has shifted towards the ALP since the 1990s, but it still remains more vulnerable than a 15% margin would suggest.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Virginia Judge | ALP | 21,717 | 52.1 | +0.5 |
| Bill Carney | LIB | 12,232 | 29.4 | -0.3 |
| Michele Sacco | GRN | 3,894 | 9.3 | +0.4 |
| Benjamin Cai | UNI | 1,874 | 4.5 | -1.7 |
| John Maloney | CDP | 1,384 | 3.3 | +3.1 |
| Patrick Garson | DEM | 563 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Virginia Judge | ALP | 24,883 | 65.1 | -0.1 |
| Bill Carney | LIB | 13,349 | 34.9 | +0.1 |
Booth breakdown
Strathfield covers parts of three local government areas, and the booths have been split along the same boundaries.
The ALP’s majority varied from 72% in Ashfield, just under 67% in Burwood, down to under 59% in Strathfield.
The Greens polled over 14% in Ashfield, 8% in Burwood, and less than 6% in Strathfield.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Burwood | 8.1 | 66.9 | 13,750 | 33.0 |
| Strathfield | 5.7 | 58.8 | 12,107 | 29.1 |
| Ashfield | 14.5 | 72.7 | 8,557 | 20.5 |
| Other votes | 11.7 | 63.2 | 7,250 | 18.8 |
Asian-Australian voters are important here Ryde by-election and loss of Bennelong suggests Labor has lost ground with this constituency.
I have a feeling Strathfield could produce one of the biggest swings of the election.
Plus Geoff, there was also a decent swing in Reid (the local state seat), plus other corresponding seats, which perhaps suggests that the Libs are doing better in ethnic communities, or at least those in NSW. Wouldn’t be surprised if this fell, but I think the Libs missed a trick by not picking an Asian candidate.
This is really a 50/50 call. Virginia Judge is a good local member and a potential leader of the ALP after the election. I’ll say a Labor hold but with no confidence.
Libns have a better record than Labor in NSW in running ethnic candidates although in hopeless seats. But there were particular 2010 NSW Labor problems with these voters these problems will be less significant in the state election.
I prefer the Liberals chances in outer suburban seats such as Oatley and even East Hills (never won by the Liberals). Seats which are quite anglo and the seats which are suffering the biggest transport nightmares. That is not to say that the Liberals won’t win Strathfield as they may. But I think there will be others that go first.
The one thing here which will affect the ALP more compared to the north-west and south-west 30kms from the city, is the potential for a high Green vote which becomes exhausted. But having a handle on that is a bit of a guessing game.
I think this seat is a fairly straightforward Liberal gain. It would appear that this seat would have been won by the Liberal Party based on booth results at the 2010 federal election. If you remove another 10% or so from the ALP’s primary vote, then a Liberal margin of 15%+ seems entirely possible.
This could be biggest upset for Labor. Liberal, Greens and Independents can expect to gain as much as 20% extra vote from Labor.
The liberals usually win this area of sydney when they win state government, but if they win this time it’ll be a very good result. Virginia Judge is a good performer and will be one of the tougher MP’s to overcome.
Greens candidate Christine Donayre is now not standing due to ill health. Despite Virginia Judge’s obvious appeal (to some) this is an almost certain win for the Libs
It wouldn’t be the biggest upset for the ALP. There will be others more of a surprise that this. Reality Check, I have noticed Virginia’s comments in the last couple of days, which suggests to me that she believes she is just about a gonner. It’s not the info I am receiving however. This is one of the dozen seats or so where campaigning will be maximised from both major parties. It is closer than a straightforward Lib gain. Judge is also a good MP and would carry decent personal support. I wouldn’t underestimate Judge retaining this, but I agree that the Liberal Party deserves favouritism in this seat.
I actually had the chance to meet Charles Casuscelli the other day when he was out meeting voters in South Strathfield. He seems to be a great guy who is very energetic and eager to get out there and help out the community.
He has over 20 years of military experience as well as formerly heading the RTA’s Transport Management Centre. Which is a great asset in an area like Strathfield which has a lot of major arteries converging together (M4, Parramatta Rd, Liverpool Rd). I am looking forwarded to him using his enthusiasm and experience to help fix some of the many problems that are faced in the area.
I agree that this is not a straight forward Liberal gain but with a candidate as good as this one they certainly have a great chance.
@Joey D,
Military experience? where did he serve?
Went to Flemington shops today… lots of Virginia Judge signs on the shops… no ALP logo to be seen anywhere…
For a “potential leader” with 8 years in parliament, she seems to be running away from her party.
Pete – they all are. Carmel Tebbutt and Verity Firth are running a “keep Carmel/Verity” campaign.
@ George
I believe he was a full time member of the Armed Forces for that time. I am not entirely sure which bases he was stationed at. Thinking back to that conversation I think that he was a Signal Operator. Not 100% sure though.
I have a bad feeling for this seat for the ALP, even though local member very active. It will be really close.
Independent candidate mark Sharma has what seems to be a phone poll of 100 voters:
http://strathfieldvoice.blogspot.com/2011/02/strathfield-poll-results-labor.html
Would take with a very large chunk of salt but suggests a close result
Interesting Geoff. I am surprised by the 2PP given the primary polling intentions, as Sharma has made it public that he will not be supporting the ALP, yet has not formalised preferencing at this point. I would have thought that the majority of his votes will either exhaust or head towards the Liberal candidate given his conservative views. If the poll is at accurate (big if), the ALP cannot win the seat based on the primary voting intentions.
Oh come on, the poll is completely worthless. It has Sharma polling 25% and excludes the Greens, despite the Greens getting triple Sharma’s vote in Watson at the federal election.
Ben – perhaps the Greens are seen as being too closely aligned with the ALP in Strathfield? Perhaps the Greens will lose support if they preference the ALP? Perhaps they thought Sharma was from the Greens? Who knows….
The Greens will really need to consider closely their preferencing at this election or they could end up losing support.
What? He doesn’t include the Greens in the poll because he hates them. I see no evidence that the Greens’ vote has slipped. It’s just one guy with a poll.
Ben, very true. My info is that the ALP will lose Strathfield by between 51-56%/44-49% on 2PP and the Greens will get around 9-10% of the primary vote.
I agree a poll of very little value still the primary vote for Labor looks reasonable, Perhaps the callers listed Sharma by name as the independent candidate.
@ DB I searched little bit online and found some interesting links that might help solve the mystery of why Mark Sharma’s 2nd preference will split and lead to a closer result.
On his Federal Campaign site I found an article by Inner West Courier in which he asked voters to vote Labor last. “My advice is that people should vote Labor as their last preference to make their vote count.” SOURCE- http://dimpto.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Inner-west.bmp
Then I looked up on AEC Results website and found that his 2nd preference were almost split 3 ways. Labor got 36.66%, Liberals 35.53% and Greens got 27.81% of his 2nd preferences.
http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionDop-15508-251.htm
If you add Labor + Greens it comes to 72.19% which means it is the left leaning people who are voting for Mark Sharma and not Conservatives. If he is reading it then he should better change his party.
GT500 – in other words, people voting for an Independent because they are disillusioned with the majors. Sharma is a regular blogger on the SMH and some of his views would suit a very small minority over the age of 70.
DB- What it means is that the Strathfield voters are looking for a change. I checked up the candidates for the last 3 elections and almost all were Anglo. There were few exceptions in the form of Unity Party but their participation now is negligible. The other fact about Strathfield area is that it is booming with immigrants. I have a feeling that Sharma became an Independent because he saw no chance of getting a ticket from Liberal Party. He won’t go to Labor or Greens because he hates them so that leaves only one way i.e. becoming Independent
What is interesting to note is that he is the only candidate who is openly campaigning for greater political rights for immigrants like in this article published last year http://express.whereilive.com.au/news/story/mark-sharma-watson-independent-candidate/
On his policies I found a rather strange “policy”. Point no. 4 talks about democracy and once again he rakes up the issue of immigrant representation http://marksharma.com/?page_id=15 Immigrants have traditionally voted Labor and then Greens due to their perception of Liberals as racist. Remember Pauline Hanson?
But the fact is that Pauline Hanson era is gone and immigrant representation in the parliament is still negligible. Sharma’s message of immigrant representation does have some audience. This is exactly why Sharma’s vote might go up and help Labor as I explained above. If Liberals lose Strathfield then it won’t be because of Virginia Judge but because they don’t have Immigrant Mark Sharma on their ticket. So yes, you are right in saying that voters are disillusioned with major parties.
GT500,
I don’t know if it’s poor form to reference one psephologist’s commentary on another’s site (so if it is, sorry Ben).
You might be interested to learn that the ABC’s Antony Green covers something like this issue on his blog.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/01/sydneys-chinese-community-support-for-unity-and-liberal-prospects-at-the-nsw-election.html#tp
He argues that part of the problem that the Liberal Party has had in metro Sydney has been perceptions held by NESB voters who might vote Liberal that the party didn’t have their concerns at heart. He refers to the disconnect between the Liberals and Asian (specifically Chinese) communities in Sydney and the rise of the Unity Party in the wake of Pauline Hanson in the 1990s.
Green appears to suggest that Strathfield may be the home of many of these (ex-Liberal?) voters, and that they are disappointed in Labor (ref: 2010 federal election) and looking for a new home after Unity’s decline.
I guess we’ll see….
hughie – I think the Liberal Party has done a lot to mend ties with the Asian community. This will be a close race, but from all reports the Liberals should be favourite.
This is from Today’s Sydney Morning Herald. http://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-tolerant-of-cultural-differences-study-20110223-1b4ib.html It specifically points the finger at Strathfield. Rising Immigrant population and rise in Racism Complaints will be bad for all the candidates but for one. Liberal Party is already under fire for Morrison and Bernardi. Reckon Strathfield is still an open race.
But will Chinese background voters feel a tie of non-Anglo sympathy with Middle eastern background Mulims? Malayasian Chinese not
@ hughie We have a tendency to believe that if someone is of immigrant background then he/she would most likely support the party that supports multiculturalism most. Unfortunately, that’s not the truth. There are tons of chinese businesses in Ashfield and Burwood who have traditionally voted Labor and might now turn towards Liberals. The reality is that Labor party is like a middle ground party in Australia. On the left we have Greens and on the right there are the Liberals. Asian businessmen went with Labor for last one and a half decades because their businesses flourished and immigrant numbers grew. Now, like rest of the state they are angry with Labor but they won’t necessarily go with Greens. Some would but not most. Strathfield battle is between Labor and Liberals but it is far from over.
Mark Sharma poll must have been taken around his kitchen table. With no Green option and with him going from 2% in a Federal poll to 25% in a Federal poll. Talk about dillusional!!
Strathfield I believe is a fantastic test case and will answer a good question – How important is a good local member?
When I say good local member, I am not talking about a maverick kind like some of the Nationals and Country Liberals, I am talking about a loyal party member who is seen as a very good MP.
If being a good MP is important to the community, they will stop and think twice. If they do, they will save her from a loss.
I have noticed quite a few Asian-Australians shifting over to the Coalition now that they see that One Nation is no-longer a threat. While Scott Morrison’s idiotic comments certainly won’t help the cause, I don’t think this will effect the seat too much.
This is another seat where you might see a slightly higher preference flow from the Greens to the ALP than what you would normally see in this election and this won’t sit well for the Coalition Member. I think Virginia Judge will just hang on here but she will get the fright of her life.
@ Anthony Independents usually get less votes at Federal Election because they don’t have resources to provide a “how to vote” to most voters. At Federal level in NSW informal vote is a real problem and Watson (from where Mark Sharma stood) had one of the highest informal votes. On the other hand NSW Elections usually have low informal rate. Sharma’s comment on his site says that this factor and the fact that Watson was a re-distributed seat affected his numbers. This seems reasonable enough to me. I doubt he will get 25% primary but he would probably poll somewhere around Greens given the ethnic mix and low Greens vote in Strathfield suburb. That figure of 25% will eventually get divided between him and the Greens.
@Hawkeye I agree that all is not lost for Virginia Judge. This is exactly why I’m concentrating on Independent ( Mark Sharma) and Greens Vote. These two will end up deciding whether Labor or Liberals get Strathfield.
Ive seen Virginia campaigning a lot recently.
She seems to still get quite a good reaction.
If her personal vote holds up she has a chance of holding off the swing
The Asian vote was one potentially friendly demographic that the Libs managed to alienate over the past 20+ years. It is not homogenous by any stretch & has increased it’s spread/influence across the electoral map. Howard’s demise may have diminished the alienation from the Libs … how long that may last may be open to speculation … and the gross dissatisfaction with this State Govt crosses most if not all boundaries.
The current Strathfield seat is more the old Ashfield seat than the historical Strathfield one and, under normal circumstances, would favour Lab. That in itself may not save Judge however this seat may swing less than many others. My contacts in this area (a cross-section of political views) have spoken very highly of her and I feel she may have a better chance of surviving than many others.
Not an easy seat to call.
As a Chinese and somebody whose parents have strong ties in the Chinese community (in Burwood, no less), I’m just going to say neither Sharma nor Greens will make an iota of gain within the large Asian communities in Strathfield. (sorry I’m going to rant about this a bit, multiculturalism, immigration and east asians in Australia is kind of a policy interest of mine, SKIP AHEAD TO ELECTORATE THOUGHTS)
The middle class east asians in Burwood and Strathfield are concerned about immigration, but not in the way the Greens are. Asylum seeker treatment and boat people aren’t a big issue for them. They support immigration in terms of skilled workers, students etc. They are, like Rudd, proponents of Big Australia, in direct contrast to the Greens who support a sustainable population. They also view the Greens as anti-commerce, anti-development and too socially left. The Korean communities are conservative and Christian and that’s more reason for them to oppose the Greens. The Chinese communities find the Greens hostile in terms of their emphasis on human rights which basically triggers a pavlovian negative reaction.
Seriously, if the LAST two parties in Australia were Greens and One Nation, the East Asians would still have to think pretty hard about who to vote for. Seriously, go to the campuses and caucuses and count how many Asians there are in Liberals and Labor, and then compare that to how few are in the Greens.
ELECTORATE THOUGHTS
Not as much as a write-off as you’d think. The Korean population in Strathfield isn’t suffering as massive a turnoff off Labor as the Chinese across the country. The Chinese population in Burwood meanwhile still have strong ties to Labor thanks to former Mayor Ernest Wong of Chinese Friends to Labor, who is massively popular and influential across Burwood.
If you want an illustration of this, go to Burwood Rd. and walk through the Chinese section. See how many stores sport Virginia signs and how many sport Charles signs. The ratio is about 10:1 in Labor’s favour.
Still obviously a very hard battle for Labor, but not completely written off yet. (Astute observers will notice that this has been the theme of my last three posts, in Drummoyne and Balmain too)
Liberals mad a huge push in this seat in late December through January. The Libs did about three mailouts in that time while Labor didn’t do any.
I often think campaigns are about momentum and right now it is probably with the Libs in this seat.
ps, are half the screen names above just Mark Sharma’s psuedonyms? There seems to be a lot of detailed knowledge about such a nobody independant
My prediction: Liberal gain, 15-22% swing.
@gt500 – Couple of points:
– State elections have lower formal votes due to OPV vs CPV. It is widely acknowledged that informal votes (a vote cast in error as opposed to a deliberate informal) tends to favour Labor.
– A federal electorate is roughly twice the size as a state electorate. He got 2% at the Federal election, which suggests he will get 4% assuming he had focussed all his resources at Strathfield in the Federal result.
– I read his blog on the Federal election some time ago. (I cant find it now, but it is hillarious). A person with no knowledge would be left thinking the AEC deliberately manufactured Watson to ensure he had no chance of winning.
– He also claimed most of his supporters lived in Concord (I believe) which was out of the electorate. That leads me to ask why did he choose Watson to run to begin with?
@ceediman – not many blogs are supporting Sharma. Have a look at his blog. It is a really funny read. If only the chaser boys ran a series on State Elections!
@ anthony Sorry, but I don’t agree with you. You are stating incorrect information and making up stats as you go. Either you are not aware of Strathfield political situation or its a deliberate ploy. I’m not concerned about your or anyone else personal views on candidates. I’m concerned about the impact of Independents and Greens vote in deciding whether Labor or Liberals will eventually win Strathfield. As I said last time, I believe that 25% figure in the poll will be divided between him and the Greens.
Based on current mix, I’d say Greens would get between 10-12% of Primary in Strathfield Electorate and I’d imagine similar for Mark Sharma/others. It doesn’t look like Greens will preference Labor and so all eyes should be on other candidates and smaller parties. Also, Greens and Mark Sharma’s vote can increase even further with this story published in the local paper. http://inner-west-courier.whereilive.com.au/news/story/racism/
@GT500 All comments everyone are making are speculative. I could be right or I could be completely wrong. We will all know in 25 days.
The only stat I quoted was the 2% primary vote (rounded) in the Federal election which can be obtained from the AEC and made an assumption that assuming every vote was in the state electorate, that would only be roughly 4%.
He has freely admitted he has excluded the recognised 3rd and 4th (Christan Democrats) force in state politics in his poll. Without disclosure as to the methodology and process, it cannot be taken seriously. How has he worked out a 2PP?
As for that article, Sharma’s comments are buried so deep that I doubt it will help him.
I predict Sharma will be lucky to get his deposit back. I suspect this blog is probably the most anyone will talk about him.
Will I be proven wrong?
centrebet has shortened Charles to $1.84 and Virginia is now $1.87
might be time to put some money on Charles before he shortens even further
Polling is extremely close, but the Liberals are ahead in every party poll in this seat. I know however, that Virginia’s workers are working around the clock according to someone in Greenwich……
Ceediman – it think those odds are entirely accurate.
The odds are indeed short and that reinforces the point that it is the Independent Mark Sharma and Greens who will end up deciding whether Labor or Liberals will win this seat.
@anthony According to Antony Green he got 2.8% http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/wats.htm I don’t agree with your logic of doubling results but even then it would mean primary of 5.6% – Enough to cause an upset when we have such short odds. And It seems Media is covering him. The article you mentioned above had racism on front page and it was followed on page four. It has Virginia Judge’s comment with Sharma and a Labor councillor next to it http://digitaledition-innerwest.innerwestcourier.com.au/default.aspx
Australian politics has taken a new turn. Indies and Greens might not win but they have the power to to decide who gets the gong. Democracy is alive again!
its not democracy if the fringe decide the outcome
I think this will be one of the closest results in Sydney.
Lachlan – yep agree. The issue that makes the biggest difference here is the quality of the ALP candidate. I have personally given this the the Libs in my list, but without any confidence at all.
http://ourstrathfield [dot] com [dot] au/article/virginia-judges-fight-strathfield
In the last leg of the election campaign, Member for Strathfield Virginia Judge and was joined by the former Premier of New South Wales Bob Carr launch at her campaign.
With only three weeks till the election, Judge addressed her constituency and said she would fight all the way to the close of polls on election day and doesn’t deny this election will be a tough fight.
“This election will be tough, but I have never shied away from a battle. The people of this electorate deserve a strong local MP,” said Judge. “I have been up at the crack of dawn to meet locals at train stations, I have door knocked in the heat and in the rain but I’m enjoying the challenge of proving to my community that I’m always in their corner.”
Carr who opened Judge’s Burwood office said the people of Strathfield should remember Judge’s long track record of work for the community.
“I have always been impressed Virginia’s fighting spirit. She has been a great local MP and has delivered for the local area,” said Carr. “We all know that the Liberal Party are strong favourites to win government the question the people of Strathfield need to ask is which candidate will be the best local representative.”
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interesting that she got Carr out to the electorate to help her