Strathfield – NSW 2011

ALP 15.1%

Incumbent MP
Virginia Judge, since 2003.

Geography
Inner West Sydney. Strathfield covers parts of Ashfield, Burwood and Strathfield local government areas, specifically the suburbs of Ashfield, Croydon, Burwood, Strathfield, Enfield and parts of Homebush.

History
The electoral district of Strathfield has existed since 1988. The seat was held until 1999 by the Liberal Party, and since 1999 by the ALP.

It was first won in 1988 by Paul Zammit. He had won the seat of Burwood in 1984, holding it for one term before it was abolished. Burwood had been held by conservative candidates for close to a century before the ALP won it in 1978.

Zammit served as a junior minister in the Coalition state government from 1991 to 1995. In 1996, he resigned from Strathfield and won the federal seat of Lowe. He only held it for one term, as he resigned from the Liberal Party in 1998 in protest over aircraft noise. He ran as an independent in Lowe at the 1998 federal election, losing to the ALP’s John Murphy.

The 1996 Strathfield by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Bruce McCarthy.

Prior to the 1999 election, Strathfield was redrawn to take in parts of the abolished Labor seat of Ashfield, cutting back McCarthy’s margin.

At the 1999 election, McCarthy lost to the ALP’s Paul Whelan, the sitting Member for Ashfield. Whelan had held Ashfield since the 1976 election. He had served as a minister in the Wran Labor government from 1981 to 1984. He served as Minister for Police from 1995 to 2001, and as Leader of the House until 2003, when he retired.

Whelan was succeeded by Strathfield mayor Virginia Judge in 2003. She was re-elected in 2007, and has served as a minister in the Labor government since 2008.

Candidates

Political situation
Strathfield covers areas with a long history of electing Liberals. The area has shifted towards the ALP since the 1990s, but it still remains more vulnerable than a 15% margin would suggest.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Virginia Judge ALP 21,717 52.1 +0.5
Bill Carney LIB 12,232 29.4 -0.3
Michele Sacco GRN 3,894 9.3 +0.4
Benjamin Cai UNI 1,874 4.5 -1.7
John Maloney CDP 1,384 3.3 +3.1
Patrick Garson DEM 563 1.4 -0.1

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Virginia Judge ALP 24,883 65.1 -0.1
Bill Carney LIB 13,349 34.9 +0.1

Booth breakdown
Strathfield covers parts of three local government areas, and the booths have been split along the same boundaries.

The ALP’s majority varied from 72% in Ashfield, just under 67% in Burwood, down to under 59% in Strathfield.

The Greens polled over 14% in Ashfield, 8% in Burwood, and less than 6% in Strathfield.

Polling booths in Strathfield at the 2007 state election. Ashfield in blue, Burwood in yellow, Strathfield in green.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Burwood 8.1 66.9 13,750 33.0
Strathfield 5.7 58.8 12,107 29.1
Ashfield 14.5 72.7 8,557 20.5
Other votes 11.7 63.2 7,250 18.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Strathfield at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Strathfield at the 2007 state election.

73 COMMENTS

  1. The most interesting things about Stratfield is that unlike other Federal seat that had a high Asian community like Banks (8.9%) and Barton (8.1%) there was a relatively small swing against the ALP Benelong (4.5%).

    So that makes it a seat where the ALP might do better than some other seats in the state.

    This will definitely be a good one to watch, any late swing to the ALP will help Virginia Judge

    Most Asians, especially those who left communist countries are traditionally not supporters of the Left side of politics, especially the extreme left. It will be interesting whether the Liberals can win many of them over this time.

    As someone said earlier, if the Liberals had pre-selected an asian candidate for this seat, the seat probabl will not be close

  3. @ Matt : You are right. Strathfield takes most of Reid and Watson and may be a little bit of Grayndler (towards Ashfield side). The contest is really hotting up. Just checked the odds and it is now 1.86 each way to bother Virginia Judge (ALP) and Charles Casuscelli ( LP)

    I guess what I said all along is coming true. Mark Sharma and Lance Dale ( GRN) are now the kingmakers or Queenmakers of Strathfield

  4. Very close here. Almost a dead heat between Libs and ALP. Greens and Sharma about equal at 8% each. Too hard to call with such a high ‘other’ vote.

  5. I am going to assume the Greens will be better organised then Sharma on HTV cards, which might be the difference

  6. @ dovif How to Votes will not make a huge difference as Greens are not preferencing Labor. I don’t think Mark Sharma has declared his preference but I doubt he will preference Labor. What we are seeing in Strathfield is real political drama. A somewhat popular MP with 15% margin is struggling due to anti-labor wave and new voters. Judge would be very lucky to hold Strathfield!

  7. Sharma will benefit from his federal election candidacy and will get deposit back. He will likely pull votes from people considering voting Liberal but turned off by the Libs preferencing CDP in the LC – made clear by the Lib HTV. This is an area strongly in favour of skilled migration. So I expect his presence on the ballot is neutral beyond depleting the pool of votes for Casuscelli to overtake Judge.

    Judge should hold.

  9. Sharma has described himself as a conservative and he opposes the carbon tax, so it would be surprising if he didn’t preference the liberals.

  10. Deconst

    My view is that Sharma will draw votes from the Indian community (are there many Indians in Stratfield) and my understanding is that this group traditionally votes for the ALP

  11. Theres a significant South Asian population in this seat and their votes will be crictical. The other key seat with a high South Asian vote is Toongabbie (14 point margin), and Nathan Rees remarkably is firming as the favourite in that seat amongst the bookies. It may be KK attending many Indian functions across Western Sydney in a Sari or disconnect with the Liberal candidates but whatever it may be, the South Asian community could well be a bright spot for Labor at this election. Sure, Mark Sharma may be running and take away some votes from South Asian Labor leaners. But the same is happening in Toongabbie where a notable person from the Indian community is running as an Independent.

    Im tipping Labor to narrowly hang on here.

  12. Pardon me if I sound a somewhat sceptical note of the “Sharma factor” & any Indian bloc vote. In certain migrant communities (especially the first generation or so, there CAN be influence of certain prominent leaders) but this is far from universal.

    My observation of Sharma is that he’s frankly “all mouth & no trousers” or as some less kind individuals amongst us may put it “a legend in his own mind/bathroom”. He may have a blog & spout off to media but where’s the evidence of any ground-game/support network ? IF it were the case that he had evidence of being victimised in any way, then me may have a case for fellow Indians drawing around him but I can’t find any such evidence …. and I suspect they can smell out a dickhead … no matter his name or background.

  13. dirk

    Apparently the ALP are spending a lot of money promoting a Chinese in the Chinese paper, the Chinese is in the unwinnable 7 position on their senate ticket, so the ALP disagrees with you

  14. I think Virginia Judge is gone for good. My neighbour helps Liberals and she told me that this bloke Mark Sharma has attended pre-polling every single day. She reckons most of the asian voters are voting for him. They don’t know him but when they see him on the ground they warm up to him – may be they think he is similar to them?? According to my neighbour, this will reduce Labor’s vote and push Liberals up. I can’t see Labor retaining this seat.

  15. Vicky: don’t write Virginia Judge off so easily. For all the noise Sharma is making I haven’t seen signs of support for him besides himself being very out and about. Virginia is still popular with the Indian community. Also Labor vote in Chinese communities in Burwood and Ashfield are greatly helped by Cr Ernest Wong (former mayor of Burwood and head of Chinese friends for Labor).

    dovif: Yeah I had a look over my parents’ Australian Chinese Daily, which is one of the two big Chinese papers. Huge ALP advertisement taking up the whole front page of the election section plus second page full of articles featuring beaming Kristina or Kevin Rudd out in the street with Carmel and Albo taking photos and hugging random Chinese people (my hand to god) or Carmel side by side with Cr Wong. Basically as biased for Labor as The Australian/Daily Telegraph is for the Coalition.

  16. Crazed… don’t be surprised if people who buy the ACD (like my in-laws) don’t vote ALP.

    There was a massive swing across the seats covered by Strathfield at the federal election (from a higher base Lib vote) which will probably be magnified by the unpopular State ALP.

  17. Dovif,

    Where in my post did I make a blanket assumption ?? Just observed that ethnic groups are far from homgenous voting blocs. Some communities centred in specific districts (esp early generations) certainly CAN be. The Chinese vote in Strathfield MAY behave this way at this election but no one can precisely say for certain. My original point was actually more specific to Sharma & any such Indian vote.

    Overall, I think Judge is definitely up against it to retain her seat but there are plenty to write off before this. She may hold up better than most but “personal votes” rarely withstand landslides.

  18. Starting to trend Liberal now 53/47 over rolling last 3 weeks. Very close, but I suspect a Liberal gain in the end. This equates to an 18% swing which I think will be bigger in many parts in the west and along the Georges River.

  19. Sorry, on closer inspection, got that wrong. 51.5/48.5 to the Liberals over rolling 3 weeks. Still close but 54/46 on the weekend to the Libs? Actually, quite a number of seats on the weekend were trending even more Liberal than before except for Toongabbie. I wonder….. Perhaps that Essential poll on friday was spot on?

  20. Dirk

    Where in my post did I say you make a blanket assumption?

    All I am saying is that ALP thinks a Chinese candidate in an unwinnable position should be exploited to maximise the votes of the ALP

    So the ALP wants an Asian to sell to the asian community

  21. Suspect you could well be right. Sadly no high moral ground on either side as both parties have & will continue to play this mucky game.

  23. Personally I think the swing to the LIberal Party in this seat will be amongst the biggest in the state.

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