Smithfield – NSW 2011

1. Labor is campaigning in this seat.

2. Realistically, Labor should hold on. It pains me to say that, considering that Ninos Khoshaba is the Fairfield LGA’s equivalent of Alan Ashton. However, it’s clear that there will be a further swing in Smithfield.

   I’ve heard that the local Liberal Party have been campaigning hard for Andrew Rohan, who’s honestly not the best or well-known Liberal name in Fairfield. Messrs Oliveri, Campolongo (former mayor of Fairfield) and Molluso are better known than Rohan. However, what Rohan achieved in 2007, and will do again in 2011, is split the Assyrian vote. This is critical to success in this electorate, as the Khoshabas (Anwar and Ninos) have had a hegemony over the Assyrian vote, for as long as I can remember; much like what Nick Lalich has had in Bonnyrigg, St Johns Park and Wakeley with the Serbian votes.

   My sources tell me that there is hardly a Ninos poster anywhere, which is surprising, given that normally it is the other way around at all types of elections.

   Given that the electorate is slowly losing the Catholic demographic (Croatian, Italian, Maltese, Filipino, Vietnamese and Australian) that has backed Labor through the Dick Klugman, Janice Crosio and Carl Scully eras, this seat, as evidenced by Chris Bowen’s soft results for Prospect/McMahon in the last three election, and with the Assyrian vote spilt, this electorate is slowly drifting towards the Liberals, especially among the aspirational in areas like Abbotsbury, Horsley Park, Wetherill Park and Bossley Park.

   Khoshaba has not really performed as a local MP. Scully, despite his various ministries, achieved quite a fair bit as a local MP, with initiatives such as the M7 and the Liverpool to Parramatta T-Way, seeing a high personal vote for Scully, compared to even Janice Crosio, federally, who only ever had a high-water mark of around 15% margin, compared to Scully’s near 27%, when he left. Khoshaba is considered a decent bloke, but essentially useless as an MP. The only tangible achievement that I can credit Khoshaba with, is moving the electorate office to Smithfield. I know there have been new bus routes put in the area in the last couple of years, heading toward Liverpool, but I tend to give David Campbell and Kristina Keneally more credit than Ninos, for that, based on what I know.

   Overall, Labor will retain the seat with around a Bowen-type margin of 6-7%. Anything further marginal than that, or an upset, would be a huge surprise, even in an election like this.

3. My prediction: Labor retain, 6-10% swing to Liberals.

4. Having travelled through the electorate over the weekend, I can report that Labor must be very worried about this seat, because the signs are out everywhere in Bossley Park and Wetherill Park for Khoshaba. That should be of concern, because Bossley Park and Wetherill Park is Khoshaba country, and there never in any election has there been any need for all these signs.

   The Liberals have a record number of signs on the streets, including up at Greystanes, which is one of the weaker areas for Labor in this seat. Rohan is keeping up with Khoshaba in Wetherill Park and Bossley Park. If signs are any indication, this might be a sleeper on election night to watch, much like East Hills.

   I’ll keep to my original prediction, but all these signs seem to me to be a sign of panic on the ALP’s part, for a seat they have never had trouble holding.

5. I think allot of Labor candidates are panicing, and I think they may be getting info saying they are gone.

   I remember an ex-MP saying Labor lost allot of seats they shouldnt have lost in 1988 because local MPs thought they had enough of a buffer.

6. Labor has been taking down the Andrew Rohan posters all over the Smithfield electorate in the past few days. Some have been slashed with sharp objects, splashed with paint and others replaced by Khoshaba posters. A message was also delivered to the Rohan residence. This has never happened before to any Liberal candidate in this area. There has also been harassing of Liberal campaigners in the area by Labor people. Also i am hearing that people in the Assyrian community have turned against the Khoshabas because of internal community problems. So doesn’t look good for them at all at the moment.

7. If the above post is true, then the logical conclusion to be drawn is that Labor are running scared in Smithfield. Being really cynical here, no Liberal Party candidate in the area has shown any likelihood of getting close to winning. Indeed, no Liberal Party candidate for Smithfield has had as strong a local profile as Rohan. Indeed, one Federal Liberal candidate for Prospect a few elections ago came from Maroubra (true story), and achieved a swing against Crosio. That’s how impotent the local Liberal Party have been.

   Rohan did achieve a big swing last time, which any reasonable observer of the Fairfield political scene credited as a great achievement, despite resentment at Ninos’ hereditary links, and the splitting of the Assyrian vote. I don’t think anybody, including myself gave the Liberals any real hope of winning this time, even in an election projected to be as brutal as this one. However, if the above post is true (and I wouldn’t be surprised, if it did happen), then all bets are off. It would rank as worse than Rocky Gattellari threatening to knock Reba Meagher’s block off!

   Regarding the supposed internal problems, I would love to be a fly on the wall at the Assyrian Club on Smithfield Road. I wonder whether the internal problems had anything to do with Anwar Khoshaba’s supposed failed coup against Nick Lalich for the Mayoralty last year? I doubt it, but you never know?

8. The fact that im seeing the Tally room saying Smithfield will be a Labor retain seat is interesting because i dont think Labor will hold onto this seat anymore. Things have dramatically changed since 2007 in this region.

   I think its a big mistake Labor is running Minos Khoshaba again because his own community has problems with him and his father Anwar Khoshaba.

   Another thing people outside the area dont seem to realise is that the local Smithfield Liberals have been working so hard over the past 2 years in the area, they have been campaigning on local issues and because Andrew Rohan along with Zaya Toma are on Fairfield Council they have built up the Liberal profile in the community. We see the Liberals in both local newspapers nearly every week, and we never had seen this years ago.

   The other thing is Abbotsbury residents are all against Labor because of the recent development plans in their area, in Cecil Park the issue was Labor wanting to dump toxic waste in that area, and in Horsley Park residents are angry with Ninos Khoshaba over ignoring them over the controversial Islamic school application for the area. Now that school issue has boiled over and has spread into other areas in the electorate.

   Also dont forget the other general massive swing against Labor. People in Smithfield are not like in Fairfield or Cabramatta, the people here are switched on and are more educated in terms of politics and local issues.

9. Wilson – not impossible, but seats further south are probably more in play including East Hills, Kogarah and even perhaps Campbelltown.

10. Interesting comments from Wilson above. As someone who has a long history with this electorate, and the Fairfield-Liverpool area as a whole, I don’t think that there has been a dramatic change in the region since 2007, but that there has been a more gradual change since around the 2001-2003 period, culturally, ethnically and religiously.

    As I’ve indicated above, the Catholic demographic has been leaving the area slowly and surely. This is the demographic in the ’60s, ’70s and ’80s that helped to urbanise the electorate, and set up the churches that formed the backbone of Labor’s vote. A lot of the committed Catholics began to leave the area to retire to pastures anew around the 1999-2000 period, and the children and grandchildren who were brought up in the area (including myself) did not hang around after the changes to the area, including an absolutely unnecessary re-development of Stockland Mall, making it into a mini-Westfield, which brought the Fairfield, Parramatta, Merrylands and Cabramatta crowds in, making it a far more dangerous place to be, than what it was, say in around 1988, when the Housing Commission homes were built next to the mall. The bleeding has not stopped with this demographic.

    Dissatisfaction with the performance of the local council also played its part, especially with the ascension of Lalich as Fairfield’s popularly elected Mayor, considering his links with Phoung Ngo. The electorate was satisified with the performances of Janice Crosio and Carl Scully, who did an outstanding job for the area, which was otherwise neglected by politicians on both sides of the fence. Having said that, historically at all elections, Smithfield and Prospect/McMahon were good indicators of Labor’s performance, as the swinging voters were far more perceptive of the bigger picture, than some of the permanent marginal seats. Should this seat ever turn marginal, it would become a bellwether seat very quickly.

    Part of the rot started when Chris Bowen and Ninos Khoshaba, who were both on Fairfield Council were elected to their respective seats, at Federal and State level. Both were members of the club, which included Lawrence White, Nick Lalich, Joe Molluso, Frank Oliveri and Anwar Khoshaba that ensured no real political debate at council level, and excessive cooperation between Labor and the Liberals, once Labor had established their majority at council. Both men had decent swings against them, when first elected. Bowen has shown his talent, but has contributed nothing to the area at large, while Khoshaba is generally regarded as useless.

    The Khoshabas still have local Labor sway, which is why we see Ninos running again. I’m happy that the Assyrian vote will be divided, because in this electorate, traditionally, there has been a lot of mindless voting for Labor, when they haven’t deserved it. I agree with Wilson, that the Local Liberals have been giving Smithfield more of a go, compared to previous years (refer to my previous post, about the infamous Liberal candidate, who came from Maroubra). Rohan deserves a lot of credit for this, along with Frank Oliveri. I always contended with people from the area, over a decade that once the Liberals treated the area seriously, then Labor’s hold would be reduced, which it has.

    The keys to this seat will be whether the Liberals can actually win big on primaries in places like Greystanes, Horsley Park and Cecil Park, where they poll relatively strongly traditionally, and allow a foundation to be built for the assault on the Khoshabas in Smithfield, Wetherill Park and Bossley Park, followed by the aspirational vote in Edensor Park and Abbotsbury.

    I can’t bring myself to agree with Wilson yet, that Labor won’t hold on here, but as I’ve said previously, this electorate has been drifting towards the Liberals. This seat will one day be Liberal-held, if the changes continue over the next decade. It’s not the time-wasting purview that it once was, had we had less-gifted MP’s than Crosio or Scully.

11. Ok. The info I’m getting here is that ALP info suggests its a big chance to be lost and Lib info, whilst showing a big swing, probably won’t be quite enough but quite possible (very inconsistent poll to poll). Is there a bit of a mis-match here? I don’t know. However, last fortnight, trending towards the Libs, so expect O’Farrell and Keneally to make an appearance here in the next 3 weeks, Keneally especially if the ALP think it is in trouble.

    Mind you, if this falls at the margin, Labor are looking at about 15 and certainly less than 20 in total. I still think a bigger chance in some of the comparable margin south/south-west seats due to higher affluence.

    The reported desperation of the ALP could actually make it fall into co-alition hands. Imagine that, a Liberal member for Smithfield……yes that’s right……Smithfield. Well, I’ll be……

12. DB, that’s quite interesting info. I’d suggest that the inconsistency of the polling that you mention, probably means that Labor should still be regarded as the favourite to win, although it appears that my prediction of a 7% margin to Labor may well be far too conservative.

    If O’Farrell makes an appearance in Smithfield with Rohan or Keneally with Khoshaba, we’ll know the seat is in play. Generally, other than Scully or Crosio, the electorate is not high-profile (much like East Hills). It also is far more affluent than people realise. You will not get a home in the electorate for anything less than $500,000. If you go out to Horsley Park, a cool $800-850,000 is the starting point. Some homes in Bossley Park, Abbotsbury and Edensor Park are worth over a million dollars. The only working-class part of the electorate is Smithfield and to a lesser extent, Greystanes.

    DB, the thought of a Liberal member for Smithfield is something I would never have thought of in my wildest dreams. Having lived in the electorate for 17 out of the 26 years that I have been alive there was never any great thought of Labor losing this seat; it was only a pipe dream. It was only eight years ago that Carl Scully, a fantastic local member had a 26% margin. How things change in such a short period of time.

13. DLH – agree, still have it for Labor. Your second paragragh may explain some of the comments above. I was not aware of this changing dynamic or affluence.

    Personally, I wouldn’t pay $1m to live there. I used to play golf at Bossley Park regularly.

14. There are two types of people in this electorate mostly:

    1. The old money – This is the Catholic constituency, mostly, who built their businesses from scratch and have massive influence in the area. Compared to most electorates, this is an electorate that has a lot of well-regarded small businesses. Traditionally Labor, with a few well-known exceptions.

    2. Those mortgaged to the hilt – these are the people who have paid the over-inflated prices of the area from the retired Catholic consitituency. A more unpredictable vote here. Much more like Howard’s battlers. Ethnically, they are a different mix compared to the last fifty years.

    Lastly, DB, one has to feel very sorry for you that you had to play on that goat track! Sums up the entire Fairfield LGA in my book.

15. DLH

    Well, Barry did come out to Smithfield with Andrew Rohan, and so did Kristina Keneally last week, she took a tour of Fairfield with the Labor Candidate Guy Zangari and Smithfield MP Ninos Khoshaba. A scuffle also broke out between Labor and Liberal campaigners while KK was being interviewed for Channel Nine. From what i hear Labor crossed the road and confronted Liberal candidate Charbel Saliba and his group after they were handing out flyers in Ware Street and happened to be around the corner from Kristina. Very interesting things happening. Not to mention the hundreds of Labor posters popping up around the electorate. But what is more interesting is the Liberals having so many shadow ministers coming down in the past two weeks to town with dozens of Young Liberal flying squads.

    Also i think you would be interested in reading this article which came out today in the Daily telegraph, Below is a part i pasted which is very interesting.

    ”Former Labor safe havens such as Mulgoa, Smithfield and Macquarie Fields were also likely to fall and former premier Nathan Rees, who holds the seat of Toongabbie on 14.5 per cent, would also lose his seat.”

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/pc-margin-just-not-enough/story-fn7q4q9f-1226019352403

16. This is certainly in play if Blacktown is. I’ll be interested to see polling from a number of seats on the weekend. General support appears to be trending co-alition at the minute in the suburban seats.

17. Thanks for the link, Wilson. We can say officially that Smithfield is in play. Never thought I would ever type those words. Paul Lynch or Richard Amery for Opposition Leader, anyone?

    Very depressing reading for Labor. The tactics in Fairfield don’t surprise me in the least, although there are two sides to every story. I hope that the positive attention from the Liberals towards Smithfield keeps up beyond election day, regardless of the outcome.

18. Your welcome DLH. Im glad you now say its in play because i think it really is.

    Another thing people dont realise is that there is noway Smithfield is still on 15.5%. The amount of work put into the area by the Liberals since 2007 and the incompetence of the labor gov and other issues mentioned in the previous posts regarding the community backlash against issues in the local electorate mean that the margin has become much slimmer. I honestly believe its at about 7%-10% since 2007.

    Also want to mention that last night the Liberal fundraiser and launch dinner for Andrew Rohan and Charbel Saliba was a successful event and more than 300 people attended, including high profile Liberals and the Shadow Transport Minister Gladys Berejeklian. Many people also donated and there was an awesome auction held and a great raffles draw.

19. Good news for the Liberal Party here based on phone polling during the week. A very close situation however the ALP should be worried.

20. Apparently Barry O’Farrell visited Smithfield today, he was spotted at Austral Bricks in Horsley Park, then Stocklands Shopping Center and Fairfield as well as Cabramatta! Wonder what the Liberal Party strategists are thinking.

21. Around 7% is the federal figure for McMahon, which I agree with you, Wilson, is the actual margin for Smithfield these days. Glad to hear that Gladys made an appearance as well. Where was the fundraiser at, if you don’t mind me asking? My guess would be the Marconi Club at Bossley Park.

    DB, great to hear such positive news. Hopefully, there’s no real stuff ups from Barry or Rohan in the last two weeks. Can’t afford to give the Khoshabas any opening at all.

22. Barry found Stocklands! Good grief! The Liberal Party must think they’re a huge chance! He would have struggled to have found parking in Stocklands, let me tell you.

23. Libs ahead in polling from today. Labor can’t crack a nut. Something is just not right with that polling figure though…… I still reckon at the end of the day, the ALP have to hold this. Surely?

24. DLH

    The fundraiser was held at the Assyrian Sports and Cultural Club, and yes Barry came down to Smithfield today and spoke to dozens of people and many people were coming around him to say hello and talk about the electorate, its issues, and the current MP.

    Im glad you also agree that the margin is 7% and if that is really the case then i think the Liberals will pick up this seat. If they do it will be historic and Barry better make his way down west on the evening of March 26, well now that he knows his way around the area!

25. Check out his facebook it’s pretty active http://www.facebook.com/ClrAndrewRohan

26. Well things sure are getting interesting this week. Barry is once again coming to Smithfield tomorrow im hearing and he will a number of more times before the election in 12 days.

    Certainly some good attention for the electorate.

27. Another thing to mention is im pretty sure Andrew Rohan’s Facebook page is the largest for a NSW Liberal candidate. He has just over 700 fans.

    http://www.facebook.com/ClrAndrewRohan

28. Wilson: The Libs election night function is at Parramatta.

29. Polling was conducted in this seat for the first time on the weekend that I am aware. The Liberal Party are just ahead of the ALP before preferences.

30. From weekend, Liberals 52/48 on primaries. CDP outpolling Greens.

31. Good to see that Barry’s keeping the positive momentum going. Absolutely not surprised about the CDP outpolling the Greens here. As I’ve said often enough, the Greens are not effective out in this part of the world. Poularas is also a serial candidate and is well known, particularly in Greystanes. Ex member of the ALP, The Democrats and possibly the Liberal Party (I will need to check on that one).

    52/48 2PP is the 18% uniform swing here based on most opinion polls. Can’t afford to give the Khoshabas an opening at all from here. One mistake will lose the seat.

32. Check this out

    http://www.streetcorner.com.au/news/showPost.cfm?bid=20867&mycomm=WC

    Jason

33. Have you seen the odds on smithfield at sports bet? The Libs are at $1.60 and Labor is at $2

34. Excellent value on Khoshaba, if you’re willing to have a bet. My book would have Labor at $1.80 and Liberal at $2.15. Those odds suggest a reasonably comfortable victory for the Liberals, which I wouldn’t call just yet.

    I wouldn’t write off Labor in this seat yet. The Liberals don’t have experience of being in a competitive position in this seat and one mistake will ensure Khoshaba keeps the seat. It has been a very good campaign from the Liberal Party nonetheless.

35. Gee there certainly is some opportunity for arbitrage in some of these western seats…..

36. DLH

    And we should never underestimate the ALP dirt unit

    I received my dirt sheet on the Liberal candidate in Kogarah this morning

37. Absolutely, dovif. Mind you, you could probably put a dirt sheet on the Khoshabas, and have the same effect. Still all to play for. Others on Crikey are saying this is a Lib gain. I’ll monitor the next three days, and see where the lay of the land is, because one mistake by either candidate will decide the outcome.

38. Calling a Labor hold, with absolutely no confidence whatsoever. Don’t know why, but this has all the hallmarks of a really, really close contest. The groundwork tomorrow by the Liberals is absolutely key. Past efforts here have been abysmal, with more Christian Democrats than Liberals on the ground. A great ground effort will make all the difference, and let me assure everybody, the Khoshaba army will be out in force tomorrow. An early indication will come from Horsley Park, which is traditionally first to report. A 10-15% majority on primaries and 2PP there, and we have a contest. A small majority, and Ninos will continue to be a time-waster.

39. Cannot believe it. It has not sunk in, yet, that we have a Liberal member for Smithfield. Unbelievable.

    Very strong across all the booths. ABC called it 15 minutes before I did. The Wetherill Park and Bossley Park results had not come in, when they called it, so I wasn’t calling it. Khoshaba’s core support just collapsed. It was just unbelievable.

    Realistically, Rohan has a lot of work to do, to ensure he’s not a oncer. I’d expect Khoshaba to run again in 2015, as the talent pool for the ALP is not deep in this part of the world. This will now pretty much be a bellwether seat for the mood of the public, if not for a change of government. It will only be a safe seat, if the voters are satisfied that either party is doing a good job.

40. As the campaign manager for Smithfield, I am honoured to have played a small part in this historical victory for the Liberal Party and people of Smithfield.

    People rejected the hollow Let’s keep Ninos slogan.

    If anyone wants to be involved in making a Smithfield a better place, please feel free to contact me as we will be opening up the office in Smithfield to the people and doing many projects that involve the whole community such as a “Pay it forward” program.

    Zaya Toma

41. Congratulations to you, Zaya. You must be pleased with how the whole night went, with the exception of Cabramatta. Any chance of you running for Mayor against Nick Lalich or Ninos Khoshaba (don’t laugh, it might just happen) in next year’s elections, or is Frank Oliveri or Joe Molluso warming up for a run?

42. Looking at the booths, I had forgotten that there were so many booths outside of the Fairfield LGA. The results in Erskine Park, for example, really hurt Labor, along with the disastrous results in Greystanes, which was reflective of Labor’s poor performance throughout Holroyd. Khoshaba couldn’t be blamed for the results there. However, being beaten in parts of Bossley Park, Edensor Park, Smithfield West and a terrible showing in Abbotsbury, indicates to me that there was a protest vote against Khoshaba, as well. Horsley Park wasn’t such a surprise that the Liberals won; more, the sheer scale of the victory.

    I honestly believe that this result is probably 8-12 years too early. The Liberals were gradually cutting into Labor’s margin in this electorate for the past half-decade, but had never shown any signs of winning. This election catapulted the Liberals into a position, where they will have to perform outstandingly well to retain this seat in four years. A more gradual process may have seen the Liberals as the party of choice in this electorate, rather than a temporary vehicle for change.

    I expect Khoshaba to be the next mayor of Fairfield, come next year’s council election, in preparation for a run in 2015. Rohan will need to be a really good grassroots MP, in order to be competitive next time around, if he’s not dumped at preselection.

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