LIB 13.0%
Incumbent MP
Victor Dominello, since 2008.
Geography
Northern Sydney. The seat of Ryde includes a majority of the City of Ryde, including the suburbs of Ryde, Denistone, Eastwood, Marsfield, Macquarie Park and Melrose Park.
History
The first seat of Ryde was created at the 1894 election. It has existed at various times since then. It was abolished in 1904 and restored in 1913. In 1920 it was expanded to become a five-member district, before that was reversed in 1927. It was abolished again in 1968 and restored in 1981. It was again abolished in 1991 and restored finally in 1999.
From 1927 to 1968, Ryde alternated between being held by the ALP and the United Australia/Liberal Party.
When Ryde was restored in 1981, it was won by Labor MP Garry McIlwaine. McIlwaine had won the Liberal seat of Yaralla in 1978, before it was abolished in the 1981 redistribution. He held Ryde until 1988, when he was defeated by Liberal candidate Michael Photios.
Ryde was abolished in 1991, and Photios moved to the new seat of Ermington. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1993 to 1995.
At the 1999 election, Ryde was again restored. It covered much of the abolished seats of Gladesville, Ermington and Eastwood. Photios ran against John Watkins, the Labor Member for Gladesville. Watkins had won Gladesville off the Liberal Party in 1995. Watkins defeated Photios, gaining a 6.6% margin.
Watkins was appointed to the ministry in 1999, and quickly moved up the ranks of the ALP. Watkins became Deputy Premier in 2005 when Bob Carr and Andrew Refshauge.
Watkins increased his margin to over 65% in 2003, and maintained a 60% margin in 2007. In 2008, Morris Iemma resigned as Premier after losing the support of party figures. Following his decision, Watkins announced his retirement.
By-elections were held in Ryde, Port Macquarie, Lakemba and Cabramatta in October 2008. The ALP lost Ryde with a 23.1% swing, which was a record swing at any by-election in modern NSW history. The second-biggest swing was recorded in Cabramatta on the same day. Both were surpassed by the Penrith by-election in 2010. Ryde was won by former Ryde councillor and Liberal candidate Victor Dominello.
Candidates
- Victor Dominello (Liberal)
- Vic Tagg (Independent)
- Jerome Laxale (Labor)
- Jimmy Shaw (Greens)
- Julie Worsley (Christian Democratic Party)
Political situation
While Ryde was held by the ALP by a 10% margin prior to the by-election, the Liberal Party shouldn’t have any trouble retaining the seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John Watkins | ALP | 18,780 | 44.8 | -8.9 |
| Vic Tagg | LIB | 11,979 | 28.6 | -2.1 |
| Ivan Petch | IND | 3,539 | 8.4 | +8.4 |
| Peter Bell | GRN | 3,297 | 7.9 | +0.6 |
| Robyn Peebles | CDP | 1,532 | 3.7 | +0.9 |
| Kevin Chin | UNI | 1,510 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| Furgen Gruener | AAFI | 660 | 1.6 | +1.5 |
| Peter Goldfinch | DEM | 588 | 1.4 | -0.4 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John Watkins | ALP | 22,060 | 60.1 | -4.7 |
| Vic Tagg | LIB | 14,654 | 39.9 | +4.7 |
2008 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Victor Dominello | LIB | 21,370 | 54.3 | +25.7 |
| Nicole Campbell | ALP | 11,725 | 29.8 | -15.0 |
| Lindsay Peters | GRN | 4,407 | 11.2 | +3.3 |
| Victor Taffa | IND | 1,171 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Peter Goldfinch | DEM | 656 | 1.7 | +0.3 |
2008 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Victor Dominello | LIB | 22,556 | 63.0 | +23.1 |
| Nicole Campbell | ALP | 13,243 | 37.0 | -23.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ryde have been divided into three areas, between the east, west and north. At the 2007 state election, the ALP’s majority varied from just under 60% to over 61%. In 2008, the Liberals won a margin of 64-65% in the east and north, and 59% in the west.
2007 election breakdown
| Voter group | GRN % | IND % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 7.2 | 11.3 | 59.7 | 13,755 | 32.8 |
| West | 8.3 | 7.1 | 61.4 | 12,954 | 30.9 |
| North | 7.9 | 6.6 | 59.6 | 7,396 | 17.7 |
| Other votes | 8.3 | 7.5 | 57.8 | 7,780 | 18.6 |
2008 by-election breakdown
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 10.4 | 64.1 | 14,052 | 35.7 |
| West | 12.8 | 59.0 | 13,106 | 33.3 |
| North | 11.9 | 65.4 | 7,165 | 18.2 |
| Other votes | 8.5 | 66.6 | 5,006 | 12.7 |
Will be interesting to see how much of his by-election margin Dominello can retain.
Probably the majority of it tbh. Could do even better.
No way in the world he’ll do better. Regardless of how much the electors of Ryde may not rate the Government, people’s attitudes when voting in a by-election are very different to those when they’re voting for the Premier.
I can’t see there being much change from the by-election.
I think the mood about the government has deteriated further since the by-election. That said, the shift from contentment to disgust was pretty pronounced probably from the ousting of Iemma for someone noone had ever heard of, followed up by the ousting of someone noone had ever heard of for another unknown person.
The Independent in 2007, Ivan Petch, was the former Liberal MP for Gladesville whom Watkins had defeated in 1995. He also recontested as an Independent in 1999, and also served as Mayor of Ryde.
A former Liberal minister once declared that his sole disappointment of the 1988 NSW election night was the realisation that Ivan Petch was going to be in their caucus
Think much of the swing has already played out. Fact is this IS no longer reliable Liberal territory. Looking ahead, with good service Dominello may extend his livelihood but this seat has proven it can swing viciously either way.
dirkprovin – I’d agree with that. And you will see that south-west burbs will not be reliable in the future for the ALP.
So DB you seem awfully certain about the South West suburbs as you put it. Does that extend to Macquarie Fields?
Depends on what you classify as south west. Federally, I can’t see much change as seats will remain largely as they are barring real highwater marks for either side.
Menai’s gone – surprised it didn’t go last time. Ditto for Camden & Wollondilly. East Hills is plausible but, still having connex with the area, I’m less than certain Libs will hold longer than 1-2 terms.
Ryde will resemble it’s Federal counterpart Bennelong … a very nasty marginal. I suspect it may be one that frequently goes with govt but a good member of either side may be able to hold on except against landslides.
Yeah agree with dirkprovin that it’ll now be a bellweather ala Bennelong. Mind you, Bennelong’s only gone Labor once in it’s long history, but I feel if Labor wins the next election they’ll win this too.
Agree with above 2 comments.
To Millard, no, Macquarie Fields and Campbelltown are just about impossible for the Liberals in this or any election (and I expect will always be). However, along the East Hills train line from Holsworthy towards the city, I genuinely believe there has been a demographic change for 20 years. I am not talking areas which are true west, such as Merrylands, Fairfield, or Lakemba or Canterbury with are all highly ethnic. But the areas along the East Hills train line are basically anglo-driven with the older people moving out and younger well educated anglo-aspirationals moving in, demolishing homes, and rebuilding. They have large mortgages too. I could go on, but all I will add is that if you look at Banks (mind you Banks includes Punchbowl which is highly middle eastern) and Hughes over the last 30 years, you will see the trend pretty clearly and much more than any other area of Sydney. It started around the demise of the Keating Government. The media would say these are part of the Howard battlers I suppose, but it is a generational change in reality.
When the Liberals win government federally next (whenever that is) I am confident that Banks will go to the Liberals.
Banks could indeed oneday become a bellweather federally.
If Labor want to retain East Hills, they are going to have to fight hard for it this time. Labor didn’t put too much effort into Hughes in 1996, and they have never regained it since and they are unlikely to anytime soon.
Ryde will be retained by Libs with a slightly smaller margin. That would depend on how well Dominello has consolidated the vote.
I think Ryde is an Urban bell-weather. It (and its predecessor Gladesville) has tended to favour the Government.
Like Bennelong, Ryde had the advantage that John Watkins had a high personal following.
I suspect the key to retaining this area for long terms is for MPs to endear themselves to the electorate.
DB – You really need to research by-elections, the issues surrounding them, and the outcome of next general election. If you see the trends, you will see how volatile a by-election can be.
Anthony – I don’t disagree with you in a traditional sense but I think this election is unique. From my info Penrith nor Ryde are in danger for the Liberals. Actually based on private polling I have, Ryde may increase in margin to the Liberals and Penrith will be about the same as it is now. I have people from the ALP telling me this is their prediction too.
My prediction: Liberal retain, similar margin to the by-election.
Vic Tagg’s website is http://www.victagg.com.au/
I voted Liberal
Woah. Another 36% swing here… slightly less unbelievable than Bathurst, but getting another 13% on top of the by-election result is pretty damn fine. Victor Dominello just booked himself a ministerial gig within a couple of years.
Anthony – “DB – You really need to research by-elections, the issues surrounding them, and the outcome of next general election. If you see the trends, you will see how volatile a by-election can be”.
And then I said “Actually based on private polling I have, Ryde may increase in margin to the Liberals and Penrith will be about the same as it is now. I have people from the ALP telling me this is their prediction too.”
ummmm……..but I suppose I really need to research by-elections don’t I.
And remember, I called 21 for the ALP and 74 for them in the Federal election. Not bad old son. I get some pretty good damn info.
Not sure what happened to Oatley and East Hills though. But if my info was right early on, the Libs should win on postals.