Riverstone – NSW 2011

1. Again using data from Antony Green’s election blog, this area has produced much better results for the Liberals at the federal level in the not-too distant past, on 2004 election results this would be a 8.9% Liberal seat.

2. I think Labor will find it hard to hold onto this seat. One the Liberals will probably pick up.

3. The Liberals should pick this seat up, particularly with the retirement of John Aquilina.

4. My prediction: Liberal gain, 18%+ swing.

5. This will be very close. Vassili is a far better candidate than Conolly, who really hasn’t presented himself well to the electorate. A win for the Liberals here, will be more due to dissatisfaction with Labor, than any personal popularity for Conolly, particularly in the Blacktown LGA part of the electorate.

   My reading of the situation is that Labor did not want John Aquilina to retire. Aquilina’s mere presence as an icon of the Blacktown community would have been enough to stave off Conolly and the Liberals, as far as I could see. He certainly wasn’t on any hitlist, like Richard Amery and Paul Gibson were, for example, to go.

   I’ve seen more posters for Labor than for Liberal in this electorate, which can be taken to mean that Labor believe that they may have a chance of holding on here. The seat, legitimately, probably should have turned Liberal in around 2001-2003, but Aquilina’s presence has helped stave off the inevitable. The question will be whether Vassili can promote the general weakness of Conolly, and hang on? A better Liberal candidate than Conolly, would be unbackable to win.

   It’s too close to call, and using the home team advantage, I’ll back Labor to hang on, just.

6. @ Matt – 2004 Federal Election results are based largely on the anti-muslim whisper campaign against Ed Husic in the south, and an uncontested safer seat in the north.

   Kevin Connolly is a turn off to the electorate. He is not very popular.

   Aquilina would have held the seat. This will be close, and it comes down to how many Aquilina voters want to give Vasilli a go.

   @DLH – I was completely shocked when he decided to recontest in 2007, especially after the horror term he had in 03-07 personally. He is a legend in Blacktown and justifyably so. His retirement is absolutely no surprise.

7. I live 500 metres from the Riverstone electorate, so I’m able to see what’s what in the campaign. Since my last post, Conolly signs have been popping up around Kellyville Ridge and the Blacktown part of Rouse Hill. Conolly appears to be very popular with business types, with his signs out the front of various businesses in the area. Vassili has signs everywhere around Acacia Gardens and Stanhope Gardens, including during working hours, outside Aquilina’s office.

   Vassili’s original signs had ‘Australian Labor’ written on them, but the latest variants of the signage have ‘Australian Labor’ missing. It only has the ALP symbol in a very small space near the bottom, like most other electorates at the moment. I’d say the rumour that Labor have abandoned certain seats to save others, is true out here, if that’s the case.

   Vassili is an Aquilina-endorsed candidate, so there will be some pick-up of Aquilina votes here. However, other than the endorsement and the signage outside the office, Aquilina has been remarkably quiet about the campaign, which is proper, but still strange, given he has some sway in the community.

   It’s commonly known that Aquilina wanted to retire at the 2007 election, but Mark Arbib talked him out of it, promising the retention of the Speaker’s job. We know how well that played out, with Iemma’s totally unnecessary decision to appoint Torbay as the Speaker. Aquilina got the Leader of the House as mere consolation. Labor Head Office will have themselves to blame, if they lose Riverstone, allowing for the change in demographics.

8. DLH – “A win for the Liberals here, will be more due to dissatisfaction with Labor, than any personal popularity for Conolly, particularly in the Blacktown LGA part of the electorate”.

   I think you will find that across Sydney. There is a minimal ‘personal vote’ if you are suburban ALP MP this time and that is why many ALP MPs are retiring. The disenchantment is just too great to support a personal vote this time. I disagree with Anthony’s view. The message I am getting is that they want the ALP out. Personal support for a local member is having a very minimal impact in this election based on polling. The ALP brand name is mud.

   The Libs will pick this up based on the info I am getting.

9. DB, I would agree broadly with you about the little personal support for the great majority of ALP MP’s in the suburbs. I disagree, respectfully, in the case of Aquilina. If he was running this time, he would be one of the very few Labor MPs to have either a) icon status in the area (big tick for Aquilina, here), or b) such a strong incumbency factor, which would make it difficult for any candidate to beat him or her (another big tick here, for Aquilina). There’s a strong argument to be made that Aquilina may well have been one of the few reasons Riverstone has remained in Labor hands so long.

   Contrast this, with the limited personal support for candidates like Zangari, Ashton, Khoshaba (partially), Esber and Robertson in seats that are on paper, much safer than Riverstone, from what I can see, there still would be some incumbency factor to be had here, if Aquilina was running.

   However, he is not running. I still think, because of Conolly’s less than stellar ability, that this seat is a lot closer than what the pundits are calling it. Vassili’s performance in a standard election would be more than enough to get him over the line, but Conolly definitely is the slight favourite here. I dare say, if Conolly gets over the line here, he will be one of the very worst MP’s on sheer ability to be elected. He’ll make Ninos Khoshaba, Alan Ashton, Chris Hayes, Alex Hawke and Alan Cadman look like geniuses.

10. Even if Connolly is as bad as you say, I can’t see him losing. Riverstone should’ve gone Liberal a long time ago and in an election like this, you’ll get a lot of deadshits in parliament.

11. DLH- This may be so, but remember- the best MP and the best person at getting elected are not necesarily the same person. This is the exact reason why we have this mess in NSW, lots of great politicians and noone with experience to govern well. The libs should select people that will be good MPs not try to copy the ALP and select good campaigners

12. I understand that there is a move now back to Vassili in this seat. There is some information being circulated that Conolly is Opus Dei and it seems that this has not been well received within a number of pockets in this electorate.

    There is definitely a much better presence in the electorate of Vassili than Conolly who does not seem to impress in any personal way. While he will inherit the state swing he is likely enough of a negative for this to be headed back to Vassili in the last weeks of the campaign but its certainly interesting.

13. i had heard that Conolly was part of the Clarke faction. So that snippet of info wouldn’t surprise, if true. Still think that this seat is far too close to call at this stage.

14. It will definitely be an interesting contest.

    Labor is playing dirty in this seat with allegations of Conolly being Opus Dei (which is not true) being circulated, and the ALP paying for 2 independant’s campaigns (Belcastro & Bonham) in hope of obtaining their preferences and splitting the conservative vote.

    However, in the last few weeks Conolly’s mail program has stepped up and you could only imagine that they are saving the real dollars for the last couple of weeks. Labor don’t seem to have much money at all and no head office or union presence.

    Conolly has also increased on the ground presence, with sightings almost every day for those of us in Quakers Hill.

    It should be a liberal seat and it might be that the electorate decides to elect a coalition MP just because they will be in government.

15. Saw some more signs for Vassili outside the Ettamogah Pub on the corner of Windsor and Merriville Roads at Kellyville Ridge. Labor stepping it up, it appears. 100 metres further down Windsor Road on a development, I saw a couple of signs for Bonham. They’re not able to be seen at speed but are able to be seen if you stop at the petrol station.

    I doubt that Bonham’s a Labor stooge, although Aquilina supported her complaints in the parliament. Remember that Blacktown Council is Labor-run. In theory, she’s better off saving her money for a Council run next year. There’s just not enough support for her outside of Stanhope Gardens and Kellyville Ridge. She’s likely to take votes off Vassili.

    Belcastro’s a big headache for Conolly, as he’ll certainly take some more moderate Liberals away from Conolly. I hope that he hasn’t done a deal with Labor, but you just never know. Nick Tyrrell would certainly have been a better choice than Conolly and absolutely unbackable to win the seat, but he didn’t win preselection and we have to live with it.

    Saw Conolly at the Riley T-Way bus stop the other week during peak hour, while waiting to go to work (it’s a 1.6 km walk to the bus stop; please put the rail link in!). Wished him luck. Seemed like a nice enough bloke.

    Still far too close to call.

16. Liberals ahead in polling. Would have it in the bag with a stronger candidate.

17. Both Bonham and Belcastro have done a deal to preference Labor so that Labor would pay for their material and distibution.

    Belcastro is close friends with Tyrrell- this is the only reason he is running. Tyrrell wants an ALP win so that he can win it next time.

18. Hey Glen

    Keep talking us up! You might just get us across the board!

    Bonham & Belcastro

19. If the above is true, then wouldn’t it merit Tyrrell’s exclusion from the Liberal Party? Surely, a candidate like Conolly could be challenged in preselection if he was to win Riverstone, if he proved to be an underperforming MP? Undermining the preselected candidate is hardly the best way to go about achieving your ambition.

    Bonham and Belcastro’s decisions to preference Labor makes this seat even closer. If the Liberals get anywhere under 42-43% of the primary vote at a minimum, they will not win.

20. It sounds like Riverstone isn’t entirely gone for Labor.

21. Ah Glen. Seems like everyone who doesn’t take a liking to Connolly is a mate of Tyrell’s, every hiccup in Kev’s campaign is someone else’s fault.

    I reckon if Kevin had been on top of the local issues, like Schofields station, rezoning in Riverstone, police station in Quakers Hill etc, and had bothered to turn up to just one Chamber of Commerce meeting in 2 years, or started a dialogue with some local community campaigners like Gino or Rosie, he wouldn’t be up against them!

    I hope he learns his lesson and starts engaging with the community, because brochures and balloons won’t hold this seat in 4 years if people don’t see a strong, active, results-driven MP.

    I want a Liberal govt so I’ll be voting for Kevin, but by god I hope he picks up his act. There’s a lot of work to do.

22. Don’t you think if there was truth to the accusations against Tyrrell that Conolly would’ve tried to have him flicked? After all, Conolly got Geno booted and that’s how he finds himself in this mess. A beautiful own-goal, but a demonstration of how feeble Glen (or Kevin)’s shrill accusations are.

    “Rosie’s a Labor stooge!” “Geno’s preferencing Labor!” “It’s all because of that Tyrrell!” Give me a break. Conolly expects Riverstone on a silver platter, and appears to be desperately flinging mud around to divert attention from his failure to neutralize interpersonal issues through actually talking to people.

23. There’s been no hiccups in the campaign, but I admit Geno has run a good one. Just think, Conolly gets Barry O’Farrell and Gladys Berijikelin out to Schofields station, vassilli and Belcastro can’t even get the Shadow minister out from Blacktown, and SOMEHOW, the ALP cares and Kevin has failed??? SPIN SPIN SPIN!!

    “Kevin hasn’t come to one chamber of commerce meeting”- Well yeah, coz geno keeps scheduling them for Hawkesbury council nights, not inviting him anyway, and then complains he doesn’t come to score cheap political points. SPIN SPIN SPIN!!

    And its not accusations, the HTV’s are out- the independants ARE preferencing the ALP.

    Its interesting to note the perceptions of ordinary people- all of DHL’s comments about Conolly and then he mentions “i met him for the first time the other day”.

24. And no, in the liberal party it is extremely rare for a challenge to a sitting MP in their first term or a sitting mp in a marginal electorate.

    Its not as easy as “having him flicked” obviously.

    Noone considers that Conolly won the preselection because people that personally knew him and personally knew Tyrrell decided that Conolly would be a better MP. Its impossible for 56000 voters to know everyone personally, but the 100 preselectors knew both men well

25. Also, i think its pretty obvious that Geno and Tyrrell are mates…Gino staged a resignation from the party and even said it was because of the preselection result. Look it up in the Rouse HIll times,

26. Glen, you obviously are a supporter of Kevin’s and that’s ok. My understanding is that the preselection for Riverstone was very close, and that many voters came from the Hawkesbury, which is outside of Riverstone. It stands to reason that if Kevin’s been around for 15 years and has run three times before, then he’d have some local support, even if they were stacks.

    I’m not ALP, like I said I’ll be voting for Kevin, but the Libs should’ve done better than putting up a three-time loser on the edge of retirement to win & hold a marginal seat like Riverstone.

27. Well they must be “stacks from out of the area’ if they don’t agree with you.

    Like Ray Williams “caravans of immigrants maurading from electorate to electorate” in 2007.

28. Like Dominic Perrottet’s ‘active’ Liberal party members that got him preselected over a Future Treasurer but are now just as present during the campaign ey Glen?

29. First it was the DLP. Now it’s a Liberal schism revealed on the Tally Room. Where will it end?

30. hughie: yeah but at least we kind of care about a Liberal schism, however local.

31. Saw Vassili at the Riley T-Way this morning. Wished him luck, as I did Conolly. Far more approachable than what Conolly was, I have to say. His body language gave away a lot. He knows it’s a struggle to retain Riverstone for the ALP, and is trying his hardest, although whether the party is trying it’s hardest for him is another story. He was a one-man band this morning. Compare that to Robertson’s court jesters, and you get the picture.

    I was given two bits of paraphernalia. One was really professional, detailing his background. Also had a picture of him with John Aquilina, which I thought was an intelligent move. The other piece of paper I was given was a slapdash, disorganised effort, with plenty of grammatical errors. I was struggling to distinguish between statements and sentences, that’s how bad it was. It was a piece of paper detailing his bus policy, which he says that Labor have committed to a Metro Bus servicing suburbs from Quakers Hill to Norwest.

    Kevin Conolly gave the drivers and passengers of Old Windsor Road and the T-Way a great bit of entertainment this morning. He and his Liberal cohorts were on the side of the road, heading from Norwest to Bella Vista, jumping up and down, waving their signs to the oncoming traffic. From the T65, it looked ridiculous and a total waste of energy. Indeed, a comment was made, “What a TOOL!”, and nobody on the bus disagreed. Dare say Conolly lost a few votes this morning with those antics.

    I’ve seen more Bonham signs at Rouse Hill and the top of Kellyville Ridge. I don’t understand why she’s bothering, unless it’s a proxy for a Council bid in 2012. Vassili must be delighted that he has her preferences.

32. DLH, why am I bothering?

    It’s a shame that decent people like Geno and myself, who have put the constituents of the Riverstone Electorate before all else, have been subjected to smear campaigns in relation to preferences.

    It’s strange that our “How to Votes Cards” were only accepted late yesterday afternoon by the Electoral Commission, yet, for some unknown reason they’ve been floating around for days….

    What’s even stranger these fake “How to Votes Cards” don’t even resemble what has been endorsed by us or the Electoral Commission!

33. Vassili has outperformed Conolly 100 to 1 this campaign from a short standing start. Whether he has gathered enough momentum to stop the move away from Labor and played the preference game well enough time will tell.

    Conolly on the other hand has had everything and is such a poor choice by the Liberals has detracted from a Liberal campaign but the odds are on his side.

    Any other candidate on either side would have made a big difference here. A good candidate for Liberal and the seat would be won already. An ordinary new Labor type would not have gained the traction of Vassili.

    Still think that this electorate could go either way.

34. With all due respect, you haven’t answered the question, Rosie. Smear campaigns happen in all campaigns, although the difference between right and wrong sometimes gets blurred. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, Rosie. I’ve seen you in the local papers fighting the development at Kellyville Ridge, so you have my respect for that, although I think a Council run next year is far more realistic.

    Alan, absolutely agree. Can’t help but think that if there was almost any other Liberal running, Vassili would not have a hope. Also, there’s an argument to be made that if Aquilina was running, Conolly would be chasing tail yet again. That doesn’t detract from the really good job that Vassili’s done, however. It would be a huge shame if he and Prue Guillaume (Mulgoa) were to lose, as I think they have shown talent far beyond that of a mere time-waster, if they were to be elected.

35. So Rosie, are you preferencing labor or not?

    You didnt answer the question.

    Sounding more and more like a politician each day Rosie…a Labor alligned politician

36. Belcastro might muddy the waters, but Conolly should win pretty easily. Aquilina will surely have a big personal following here after more than two decades’ representation – Labor can’t hold it without him.

37. Vasilli is actually saying what the electorate thinks, Connolly never turns up anywhere where it matters – thinks he will win easily. Bonham and Belcastro actually care about what happens and has got the back up of Connolly (because he doesnt). If Bonham and Belcastro preferrence Labour then its because the wrong liberal was selected and yes Conolly deserves to lose as we want someone to represent US not be a “toe the line guy”. Vasilli may actually make a large noise, Bonham and Becasltro will also. Go anyone who will help Conolly lose – he does not represent Riverstone/Schofields.

38. I agree with you, RIVOLOCAL, that Vassili is the better candidate on merit. Perhaps Conolly hasn’t shown up in Riverstone or Schofields, but I’ve seen him at the Riley T-Way and at Glenwood, heading towards Bella Vista. I doubt whether Liberal focus groups would want Conolly anywhere near those two suburbs. I would imagine this time without Aquilina running that Conolly will sweep the Hawkesbury part of the electorate, while Vassili will hold most of the Blacktown suburbs, with huge question marks over Rouse Hill, Kellyville Ridge and Stanhope Gardens.

    I’d back Conolly in Rouse Hill, Vassili in Stanhope Gardens and Bonham in Kellyville Ridge, which makes for a really difficult outcome to predict. At this stage, it’s still too close to call.

39. This is not the old Riverstone – it now includes Windsor, so should be a Liberal seat. They will get 60% here.

40. DLH, the biggest population centres are Quakers Hill, Stanhope/Kellyville Ridge, Glenwood/Parklea, Riverstone/Schofields, Windsor/South Windsor.

    The paradox when trying to determine voting patterns geographically is that when you compare Conolly’s 2007 tilt with the federal result at the same time, there’s a massive deficit on Conolly’s side of the ledger. Booths that vote overwhelmingly Liberal at a federal level (Windsor etc) voted for Aquilina strongly. Same can be said of Glenwood, Riverstone and Schofields.

    Conolly would be relying on some of those people in the Hawkesbury end of the electorate to swing his way this time without the name recognition of Aquilina stemming the tide. He’ll be banking on Kellyville Ridge (which voted overwhelmingly Liberal at Federal & Local Council levels) giving him better results than last time, which is why he’s obviously furious at Rosie Bonham for potentially bleeding votes off in his best booth. Should’ve addressed Rosie’s potential candidacy long ago, but it speaks to his political judgement.

    Riverstone (the town, not the electorate) is an area that’s been under threat for the last 2 years for the ALP with various decisions (Schofields station, industrial rezoning etc) taken by the incumbents that has whittled away support. The problem here for Conolly is that because he’s late to the party, only turning up in the last 3 months of the campaign, he’s well behind Belcastro who’s been smashing it in the press & on the ground for the last 12 months. If the people of Riverstone/Schofields are going to switch their long-standing preference for the ALP for someone else this time, that someone else needs to have put in the hard yards. Conolly doesn’t stack up on that front.

    I think the tide will be strong enough to carry Conolly over. The polls will tighten up in the final week, people will be wary of giving the Libs a blank cheque, and in the privacy of the polling booth may just give a sympathy vote to Vassili. I don’t think it’ll be enough to give the ALP victory in Riverstone, but it’ll be closer than it could have been. With Bonham bleeding off maybe 500-1000 first preference votes in Conolly’s strongest booth of Kellyville Ridge (and possibly a few in Stanhope Gardens as well), and Belcastro pulling in 1000-2000 first preference votes in Riverstone/Schofields, we could be looking at one of the most marginal seats on the map.

    Of course, Aquilina’s personal vote could account for up to 5% of that 10.1% margin, and Vassili will simply get wiped off the map. Who really knows? It’s all going to be very interesting.

41. Conolly will win this without much effort. The only places I can see Vassili having a majority would be in Dean Park and parts of Quakers Hill. Without John Aquilina, the Labor vote in the other suburbs will significantly reduce.

    Vassili has been very ignorant of voters concerns in The Ponds, Kellyville Ridge and Stanhope Gardens, especially regarding the high school and Bus/rail options.

    The Riverstone in 2011 is not the same as Riverstone previously, especially when suburbs such as Kellyville Ridge and The Ponds did not exist. The demographics have changed significantly from its previous “working class” category.

42. Conolly will win it, but not by his campaign or his quality, or should I say lack thereof? He’s just one of Clarke’s Opus Dei goons like Smith and Parrottit.

    The demographics in Rivo have moved to the Libs but the voters will soon realise the dud they will elect next Saturday.

    The Libs had a great chance to elect a decent candidate in Tyrrell. They failed because of David Clarke’s divisive and extreme tactics and his leaning on the staff of the world’s greatest failure of a Federal MP, Louise Markus. Throw in Jess Diaz who voted against his Council colleague so his son could run as the Libs candidate in Greenway in August!

    All keystone cops stuff with Clarke igniting the usual lunatic fringe. Barry will live to regret his decision to back Clarke again for another eight years…..

43. Its a pity that they got the wrong candidate – Connolly is going to neglect Riverstone/Schofields and focus on Windsor. We always seem to be forgotten.

44. Connolly will win this.

45. There have been nearly 9000 new residents to this electorate since the last election. Even if all of them vote Liberal there that would even up the primary difference if you look at the primary figures last time around.

    There will be a 15% swing here or less. Antony Green predicts 14.1% taking account of the retirement of John Aquilina.

    That means that if less than half of the 4% swing goes to Conolly, Vassili can still win.

    Watch preferences here very closely and be ready for some real surprises. Family First and Christian Democrat votes are 90% transfers to Liberal on their preferences. Petit will mainly exhaust. Greens, Geno and Rosie on the other hand may be worth 2% to Vassili in some form or other which is why there is a smear campaign by the Liberals against both.

    Politics is a numbers game. The numbers game allows the likes of Conolly get preselected. Anyone who thinks politics is about Vassili being a better candidate than Conolly on merit does not understand our system.

    If Vassili wins this election he may well be tagged the better candidate by being smarter in a political sense than Conolly. This electorate will likely go right to the wire.

    I have observed Vassili in two elections and he appears smarter than the average Labor bear. If he scrapes over the line from what I have seen the landscape will change. I understand he has been an open critic of Arbib and Dastyari so to get preselected after that says he has some political smarts over and above the usual type.

    I don’t think he would be a typical Labor type. But I don’t think it has helped him in the resources area.

46. Alan – I have said very little about this seat for weeks now. It was on purpose. Polling was quite close but it is clear now that the Liberal candidate is pulling away and I am quite convinced that Conolly will win this seat comfortably.

    As I alluded to on 28/2, personal vote will mean little in this election unless it is in the form of a former Premier.

47. Rees is pulling away also, according to polling. DB is correct.

48. I’d agree with most of the comments above. If what I saw of Vassili’s body language was correct last week at the Riley T-Way, then it’s fairly clear that he’s fighting a battle which he suspects he can’t win.

    I know that politics is a numbers game, but as I’ve said before, any swing to Conolly on Saturday will not be because he’s popular with the electorate; more due to the dissatisfaction with Labor, than anything else.

    From what I heard, Aquilina insisted on a rank and file ballot for the ALP Riverstone preselection. Vassili was his preferred candidate and got up. I know that Aquilina was a Trog (along with Richard Amery, Marie Andrews, Tony Stewart and others), so you would presume that if Vassili got up, he’d be a trog as well.

49. Off topic slightly, but what’s the difference between a Trog and a Terrigal?

50. Essentially, the Terrigals are the dominant right-wing ALP faction controlled by Obeid and Tripodi. They generally have been dominant since around the mid-90’s. It’s named after Eddie Obeid’s holiday house in Terrigal. It’s the place where Iemma, Scully and Keneally are or were factionally aligned.

    The Trogs are the minority right-wing faction, and to be fair, the more conservative of the two. It’s controlled by Richard Amery. Made up of Western Sydney MP’s such as Aquilina and Amery. It’s the main reason that Amery is still an MP; otherwise, he would have been forcibly retired, and believe me, they have tried.

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