Port Macquarie – NSW 2011

IND 4.5% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Peter Besseling, since 2008.

Geography
 Mid-north coast. Port Macquarie covers the town of Port Macquarie itself, as well as coastal areas in Port Macquarie-Hastings Council, and a northeastern corner of Greater Taree Council. Port Macquarie covers the towns of Port Macquarie, Dunbogan, Kendall, Kew, Laurieton, North Haven, West Haven, Coopernook, Lansdowne, Moorland, Hannam Vale, Johns River and Stewarts River.

History
The electoral district of Port Macquarie has existed since 1988. It was won by the Nationals at every election from 1988 to 1999. In 2002, the sitting Nationals MP left the party, and it has been won by independents ever since then.

The seat was first won in 1988 by Bruce Jeffery of the Nationals. He had been elected to the seat of Oxley in 1984, but it was abolished in 1988. The 1991 redistribution restored the seat of Oxley, and Jeffery returned to his original seat. He held the seat until his retirement in 1999.

Nationals MP Wendy Machin won Port Macquarie in 1991. She had first won the seat of Gloucester in 1985. She moved to the new seat of Manning in 1988 when Gloucester was abolished. Manning was itself abolished in 1991.

Machin was appointed as a minister in the Coalition government in 1993, and was re-elected to Port Macquarie in 1995, when the Coalition lost power. She retired in 1996. She now serves as president of the NRMA Board.

The 1996 by-election was won by the Nationals’ Rob Oakeshott. He was appointed a shadow minister in the Liberal-National opposition after the 1999 election.

During his second term he became disenchanted with the Nationals, finding significant differences between his ideology and Nationals policies.

Oakeshott resigned from the National Party in 2002. He was re-elected as an independent at the 2003 election with almost 70% of the primary vote and 82.8% of the two-party-preferred vote. He was re-elected in 2007 with a slightly smaller margin of 78%.

Following the 2007 federal election, Nationals leader Mark Vaile resigned from his seat of Lyne, which overlaps with the state seat of Port Macquarie. Oakeshott resigned from Port Macquarie to contest the federal Lyne by-election. He won the seat with a 73.9% margin, which was cut to 62.7% in 2010. Following the 2010 election, Oakeshott and fellow crossbenchers Tony Windsor, Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie decided to support a minority Labor government in the hung parliament.

Following Oakeshott’s resignation, a state by-election was also held in Port Macquarie. The seat was won by independent Peter Besseling. He won with 54.5% of the two-party-preferred vote over the Nationals candidate. He was one of eight independent candidates, polling just under 36% of the primary vote.

Candidates

Political situation
It is very difficult to know what will happen in Port Macquarie. Independent MPs often increase their majorities at their second elections, and after two years in office Besseling should have enough of a presence to increase his primary vote. On the other hand, Besseling may be vulnerable to a surge in support for the Coalition, and may face a backlash after Oakeshott’s decision to support the ALP in power.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Oakeshott IND 28,523 67.1 +3.2
Leslie Williams NAT 8,258 19.4 +0.9
Monica Hayes ALP 3,886 9.1 -0.8
Susie Russell GRN 1,170 2.8 -1.0
Frank Reid AAFI 648 1.5 +0.9

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Oakeshott IND 31,107 78.2 -3.7
Leslie Williams NAT 8,661 21.8 +3.7

2008 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Besseling IND 15,003 35.9 +35.9
Leslie Williams NAT 14,061 33.7 +14.3
Jamie Harrison IND 3,484 8.3 +8.3
Lisa Intermann IND 3,134 7.5 +7.5
James Langley IND 2,045 4.9 +4.9
Susie Russell GRN 1,971 4.7 +2.0
Bob Sharpham IND 795 1.9 +1.9
Bob Waldron CDP 514 1.2 +1.2
Tony Galati IND 417 1.0 +1.0
Grant Rogers IND 196 0.5 +0.5
Cameron Price IND 129 0.3 +0.3

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Besseling IND 20,068 54.5
Leslie Williams NAT 16,741 45.5

Booth breakdown
Booths in Port Macquarie have been divided into three areas. Those booths in the urban Port Macquarie at the northern end of the seat have been grouped together. The remaining booths in Port Macquarie-Hastings council area all lie  south of the town of Port Macquarie itself, and they have been grouped as “Central”. Those in Greater Taree have been grouped as “South”.

At the 2007 election, Oakeshott’s margin varied from 74% in the centre to 82% in the south. At the 2008 by-election, Besseling won similar margins between 55.6% and 55.9% in all three areas.

 

Polling booths in Port Macquarie at the 2007 state election. Port Macquarie in yellow, Central in blue, South in green.

2007 election breakdown

 

Voter group ALP % IND 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Port Macquarie 8.5 79.3 21,953 50.8
Central 10.1 74.8 9,726 22.9
South 8.3 82.8 2,793 6.6
Other votes 9.9 78.0 8,373 19.7

2008 by-election breakdown

 

Voter group IND 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Port Macquarie 55.9 20,019 48.0
Central 55.6 9,198 22.0
South 55.8 2,510 6.0
Other votes 50.1 10,022 24.0
Two-party-preferred votes in Port Macquarie at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2008 Port Macquarie state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the town of Port Macquarie at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the town of Port Macquarie at the 2008 by-election.

18 COMMENTS

  2. I find it hard to see that the Independent will win this unless he says before the election that he would unconditionally support the co-alition in the event of a hung parliament. But I think the Nat candidate will win this comfortably and that will send a huge message to Oakeshott. After this, I don’t expect that Oakeshott will contest the next federal election.

  3. Given that Labor only polled 9.1%, the sophomore surge and that the Liberals are guaranteed of winning a handsome majority, unless Besseling is a complete dud, he should win the seat.

  4. Port Macquarie (and Dubbo/Tamworth) will be ones for the true afficiandos on the 26th. Are the Nats good enough to root out the rural independents? How well can they tie them to the Labor Government?

    Oakeshott/Windsor are a godsend for the NSW Nats but will it be enough?

  5. My prediction: National gain, 15%+ swing, given what happened in Gippsland East last year in Victoria and the decision by local MP Rob Oakeshott to support a minority Labor government.

  6. The federal upper house voting for the seat of Lynn was 65% Liberal National and 35% ALP

    It will be interesting whether the people of Lynn will punish Besseling for what his good friend Oakshott did, Likelihood is he does not stand a chance, unless he had been working very hard in the electorate and distancing himself from Oakshott

  8. Besseling and Oakeshott can see the writing on the wall. Besseling is gone , many of their followers now do not trust Independents .
    Oakeshott continues to back Labor despite the backlash from people who don’t want a Carbon tax .
    The people who voted him in will be the very people who will vote him out at the next Federal Elections , his electorate wont forgive what he has done .

    Besseling (Oakeshott’s mate ) has done very little for this electorate and does not deserve another go . At the monment these men are desperate to claw back their supporters. Well Oakeshott should have put his Electorate first instead he put Labor first and didn’t listen to his electorate and what they want .
    .

  9. I’m disgusted that Besseling should cope the wrath of voters angry about Oakeshott’s backing of Gillard. Besseling deserves better than this.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if we go back to the polls for a fresh federal election before year’s end. In those circumstances, voter can give Oakeshott a caning if they want to, but they should be laying off Besseling. Sadly, that won’t happen.

  10. The info I am getting here is that Besseling will be lucky to get 20% of the vote. Nats will win this in a canter.

  11. View over on Poll Bludger thread that Besseling will just get home.

    I don’t know how anyone could tell with any certainty without polling of the local electorate – particularly in a seat in which the normal political allegiances have been shaken up.

    What can we work out as the likely minimum vote for Besseling?

    Where for example are the 35% of ALP voters that you would expect in this seat?

    Most of them voted for Oakshott in 2007 – the ALP only received 9%. You wouldn’t expect any swing to the ALP given the general circumstances. If the ALP candidate received 10% you would expect Besseling to get 25% of the vote as a minimum. He’d lose on that percentage.

    The Nationals will probably win but if Besseling records anything over 35% of the primary vote on the night then the result will go to preferences.

  13. Doug

    I would suggest the 35% of ALP vote had been split between the ALP candidate and Basseling. The Question you should be asking is where did the 65% Liberal/National vote in the senate from the federal election had gone.

    From HOR and Senate result for the seat of Lynn. we can summise 30% of the electorate probably voted Oakshott/Liberal (Lower/Upper) in the federal election. Since they voted Oakshoff/Liberal, I am going to assume they wanted a Coalition government. They did not get a coalition government. They question is where will their vote go the next time?

  14. Report from Oakshott Country of a local survey of Port Macquarie on Poll bludger suggesting that the 2PP is around 50/50:

    Williams 40%, Beeseling 34%, Alley (Labor) 14%, Meggett (Green) 4% 2pp Williams/Beeseling 50/50. This is about a 4.5% swing to Nats

  15. Doug – the Nats will win this according to my info. On rolling polling, I can’t see Besseling getting in the 30’s. It seems to be a rogue to me.

  17. Whoa, Ben, your geography is an intriguingly comprehensive list of small hamlets in this seat – maybe too much detail? (you’ve actually missed two of the larger centres, Bonny Hills and Lake Cathie, never mind) Of course for the complete geography nerds, we shouldn’t forget Lord Howe Island is also included in this seat.

    Voters in the portion of this electorate contained in Greater Taree LGA went to the polls 3 times in 6 weeks in 2008 – first the Lyne by-election, then local government elections the following week, and the Port by-election a month later. Voters in the remainder of the seat being spared the third election courtesy of Port Macquaire-Hastings council having been sacked by the state government and elections cancelled.

    Independents usually do better at their second election, but those first elected at by-elections usually find it tougher (eg Robyn Read and Alex McTaggart who lost at subsequent general elections). The other interesting thing about Besseling, as well as Draper and Fardell, is that they are ‘second generation’ independents, originally elected on the back of the popularity of their independent predecessors, and I think this may also be another factor in why Draper and Fardell didn’t gain stronger footholds in their seats in 2007 – they lack the personal popularity of their predecessors. I think you can look back at comments I’ve posted over the past two years where I’ve said I thought that Besseling likewise lacks the personal profile of Oakeshott, and where I’ve always believed that this is the more likely seat to be won back by the Nats than Dubbo and Tamworth. Now we can add that there might be something of a backlash connected with Oakeshott supporting the Gillard government and a carbon tax, but I really don’t think that will be as much as people are suggesting. Still, I think Nats will probably win this, and have a stronger chance here than in Dubbo and Tamworth.

  18. The other interesting thing about Besseling, as well as Draper and Fardell, is that they are ‘second generation’ independents, originally elected on the back of the popularity of their independent predecessors, and I think this may also be another factor in why Draper and Fardell didn’t gain stronger footholds in their seats in 2007 – they lack the personal popularity of their predecessors.

    Agreed, and you can also add David Barr in Manly to that list (lost to Libs in 2007). Following that pattern, Northern Tablelands would have to be a reasonable chance for a Torbay-approved independent once Torbay moves on. They probably wouldn’t be as amazingly popular, but who knows what the Nat opposition will look like after 4 years of this govt. (Remember what happened to the NSW and SA govts that won such punishing landslides in the early 90’s… minority govt next time.) Torbay, Piper and Moore might even have to choose the premier… that’d probably make Tony Abbott’s head explode if he’s still around in 2015.

    Relevant to this seat: I’m getting very tired of hearing how “Nationals beat Besseling with a 35% swing”, with the obvious insinuation that the same will happen to Oakeshott in Lyne next federal election. I blame the ABC calculator: it compares to the 2007 general election (where Oakeshott won by ~30%), rather than the 2008 by-election (where Besseling won by ~5%). Comparing to the by-election is the only way to do it here, considering different independents were involved – it’s not the same as Ryde, Cabramatta, Lakemba or Penrith, where one Labor candidate can be more obviously compared to the next. Besseling got a swing against him a bit over 10%, which is about the same as what Torbay, Draper and Fardell got. It’s a chunky swing, no doubt about it, but nothing out of the ordinary for the Nat vs Ind swing. Compared to the swing against Labor, they got off lightly… it was always gonna be tough for them.

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