North Shore – NSW 2011

LIB 15.9% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Jillian Skinner, since 1994.

Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney. The seat of North Shore covers a majority of the City of North Sydney and all of Mosman Council. Suburbs include North Sydney, Wollstonecraft, Crows Nest, McMahons Point, Kirribilli, Cremorne and Mosman.

History
The district of North Shore has existed since 1981. A previous incarnation was a five-member district from 1920 to 1927. The current seat of North Shore was held by independents from 1981 to 1991, and by the Liberal Party since 1991.

When North Shore was created in 1981, it covered a smaller area than the current seat, mainly covering the City of North Sydney. It replaced the previous seat named Kirribilli, which had been won by the Liberal Party at every election since it was created in 1962. The seat of Mosman covered the Mosman part of the current seat, as well as covering western parts of Manly.

Bruce McDonald had held the seat of Kirribilli since 1976, when he had defeated the sitting Liberal MP John Waddy for preselection, and then defeated him at the election, when Waddy attempted to win as an independent. McDonald became deputy leader of the Liberal Party in 1978, and became Leader of the Opposition four months before the 1981 election.

At the 1981 election, McDonald contested the renamed seat of North Shore, as well as leading the conservative Coalition into the election. He was challenged by the independent Mayor of North Sydney, Ted Mack, and lost the seat. McDonald polled over 41% of the primary vote, while Mack only outpolled the ALP by 127 votes on primary votes. After outpolling the ALP, Mack overtook McDonald on Labor preferences. McDonald also lost the statewide election in a landslide.

Mack was re-elected to North Shore in 1984 and 1988. He retired later in 1988, only two days before he would qualify for a parliamentary pension as a statement against the excesses of modern politics. Mack returned to politics in 1990, winning the federal seat of North Sydney off the Liberal Party. He held it for two terms before again retiring before qualifying for a pension.

The 1988 by-election was won by independent North Sydney councillor Robyn Read.

Prior to the 1991 election, the neighbouring seat of Mosman was abolished, with the Mosman area largely absorbed by North Shore. Mosman had always been dominated by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, except for two terms in the 1940s when it was won by an independent.

Phillip Smiles had served as Member for Mosman since 1984. He challenged Read in the seat of North Shore in 1991, and won the seat. He served as Assistant Treasurer from 1991 to 1992. He was convicted of tax evasion in 1993, and was forced to resign from Parliament.

The 1994 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Jillian Skinner. She was challenged by Robyn Read, but won with a larger margin than Smiles had in 1991.

Skinner won re-election with relative ease at the 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections. The ALP came second in 1995, 1999 and 2003, but in 2007 the Greens overtook Labor. Skinner still held a margin of almost 16%.

Skinner was elected deputy leader of the Liberal Party following the 2007 election, and currently serves as Shadow Minister for Health.

Candidates

Political situation
North Shore is still a safe Liberal seat. The Greens are a growing presence in the seat, and can be expected to absorb more of the Labor vote, but they are a long way from threatening the Liberal hold on the seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jillian Skinner LIB 22,531 53.4 +3.5
Lynne Saville GRN 7,553 17.9 +2.4
Tabitha Winton ALP 7,523 17.8 -7.1
Jim Reid IND 3,080 7.3 +0.9
Jan De Voogd DEM 781 1.9 +1.9
David Brock CDP 720 1.7 +1.7

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jillian Skinner LIB 24,299 65.8 +3.8
Lynne Saville GRN 12,602 34.2 -3.8

Booth breakdown
Booths in North Shore have been divided into four areas. Booths in Mosman Municipality are grouped together. Booths in the City of North Sydney have been divided between Neutral Bay, Kirribilli and North Sydney.

The Liberal Party polled a majority of primary votes in three of the four areas, with the vote varied from 57% in Mosman to 47.5% in North Sydney. The Greens polled over 20% in North Sydney and Kirribilli, and polled more than the ALP in Mosman, Neutral Bay and Kirribilli. The ALP outpolled the Greens in North Sydney, 23.3% to 20.2%.

Polling booths in North Shore at the 2007 state election. Mosman in orange, North Sydney in green, Neutral Bay in yellow, Kirribilli in blue.
Voter group LIB % GRN % ALP % Total votes % of votes
Mosman 57.0 15.3 14.2 12,733 30.2
North Sydney 47.5 20.2 23.3 8,636 20.5
Neutral Bay 55.2 18.5 16.2 6,789 16.1
Kirribilli 50.7 21.4 19.2 4,149 9.8
Other votes 53.8 17.4 18.3 9,881 23.4
Liberal primary votes in North Shore at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in North Shore at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in North Shore at the 2007 state election.
Polling booths in North Shore at the 2007 state election, showing which out of Labor and the Greens polled more in each booth.

12 COMMENTS

  1. Rock solid Liberal with potential for the Greens to gain upper house votes and local council seats.

    Will we see a Labor primary vote this time of sub-10%?

  2. hughie – could be close to sub-10%. The Greens are likely to outpoll the ALP by close to 2:1 here.

    Great analyis on the history. I just wonder what would happen to Hockey if Ted Mack, indeed, ran again as an independent. Ted Mack would have to go down as one of the great warriors of Australian politics.

    Expect the Greens presence to grow on the north shore over the next decade. However, given the wealth of the area, I can’t see that this is a seat that they could ever win, except maybe in a situation where a Liberal Government was on the nose as much as this State Labor Government.

    In federal terms, the Greens are a much better chance in Wentworth than North Sydney.

  4. The old Nth Sydney/Nth Shore seat had (and would still have) the propensity for a quirky result. However, once the Mosman seat was abolished (as blue-blooded a Conservative area as the Upper Nth Shore); this seat has became an unloseable seat. Any swing = totally inconsequential.

  5. ALP won’t swing as much in North Sydney. More punters use ferry and private hospitals and no crime to speak of in the North snore (I mean shore) so many of the state issues that impact other electorates south and west are not present. lab got 17% last time. would be surprised to see it drop below 14-15%.

  6. Jillian will get in again unfortunately. It’s ashame when you live in a safe electorate & you have a MP who only ever comes out of the wood work when there is an election on. Hopefully this will be her last 4 years & then people will see that the Liberal Party is not a party that takes the people of the North Shore’s best interest to heart. I would love to see this seat become marginal between, the Libs, ALP & possibly a strong Independent.It would then mean that whoever wins the seat actually would then have to become more active & get results to then be re elected in 4 years time. Politicians should be more accountable & the voters of the North Shore & other safe seats actually think what there MP’s have done prior to voting. I know that my member for the past 3 terms has hardly been seen & this is why I will not be voting for the Libs in North Shore, nor will I be voting for The Greens. Tabitha will be getting my vote wu=ith number 2 to the CDP’s.

  7. Funnily, I was polled several months ago about my voting intention in the North Shore (where family friends live, I was the next birthday).

    They asked me what candidates I knew and whether I would consider voting for a ‘local independent.’

    I assumed at the time that a local indi, perhaps a local mayor – I don’t know anything about Mosman politics – was considering a run, but I guess they chose not to. It’s a shame, I can see a Genia McCaffery (probably totally misspelt) getting close.

  8. Selling your local member short ALO? I have happened to see Skinner around quite a bit and her work in trying to support the local health issues have been excellent. It’s not easy getting decent exposure when one Health Minister gets sacked because she is simply incompetent (Meagher) and another is too busy trying to hold onto her seat under assault from the Greens (Tebbutt). Skinner has flown under the radar and is doing very well at ground zero in health.

  9. Far from selling myself short. A good representative is not someone who you see throughout an election campaign only. This not only goes for the North Shore, this goes for all seats in Local, State & Federal Govt.

  10. ALO, this happens a lot with the ALP

    For example Cherie Burton, who does not live in Kogarah was sighted in the ALP Kogarah campaign this time, because she might lose the seat

  11. I think you miss my point ALO, I mean that Skinner has been consistently around, even outside of the election campaign.

Comments are closed.