ALP 1.2% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Jodi McKay, since 2007.
Geography
Central Newcastle. The district of Newcastle covers the central suburbs of the City of Newcastle, including the CBD, Merewether, Hamilton, Tighes Hill, Broadmeadow, Stockton, Islington, Waratah and Mayfield.
History
Newcastle has existed as a district in the Legislative Assembly almost continuously since 1859. The seat elected a single MLA from 1859 until 1880, when it began electing a second MLA. It gained a third MLA in 1889. In 1891, Newcastle elected two Labor MLAs, some of the first Labor MPs in New South Wales.
In 1894, Newcastle was abolished when Legislative Assembly districts were redrawn. It was restored as a single-member district in 1904.
The seat was won in 1904 and 1907 by Liberal Reform candidates, but was won by the ALP’s Arthur Gardiner in 1910. He was re-elected in 1913, and in 1917 won re-election as an independent.
New South Wales electoral boundaries were radically redrawn before the 1920 election due to the creation of multi-member districts electing MLAs using proportional representation. Newcastle expanded to be a five-member district covering a much larger area than the previous single-member district.
While Gardiner was re-elected in 1920, Newcastle elected three Labor MLAs and one Nationalist that year. The ALP managed to win four out of five seats in Newcastle in 1925, and in 1927 single-member districts were restored, and Newcastle was reduced to its former size.
Since 1927, Newcastle has elected Labor MPs at all but one election, with an independent winning the seat in 1988.
The seat was won in 1927 by Peter Connolly, who held the seat until 1935, when he lost preselection and retired.
The seat was won in 1935 by Frank Hawkins. He held the seat until 1968. He served as a minister in the state Labor government from 1950 until the party lost power in 1965.
The seat was won in 1968 by Newcastle City Council alderman Arthur Wade. He held the seat for the next twenty years.
In 1988, Wade retired in Newcastle. The ALP lost power in a massive landslide, and in Newcastle the seat was won by independent candidate and local real estate agent George Keegan.
Keegan lost in 1991 to the ALP’s Bryce Gaudry. He won re-election in 1995, 1999 and 2003.
Prior to the 2007 state election, the NSW Labor head office intervened in the seat, stripping Gaudry of his preselection in 2006 and preselecting NBN television newsreader Jodi McKay, despite Gaudry having the support of local party branches.
Gaudry announced that he would run as an independent in early 2007. In addition, the independent Lord Mayor of Newcastle, John Tate, also ran for the seat.
At the 2007 state election, the ALP’s margin in the seat was cut from the previous 14.9% margin to only 1.2%. The Liberal Party polled less than 10%, with John Tate polling 24% and Gaudry 21%. The Greens also outpolled the Liberals. After preferences from the Liberals, Greens and Gaudry, Tate came within 1.2% of defeating McKay.
Candidates
- Jodi McKay (Labor)
- John Sutton (Greens)
- John Tate (Independent)
- Noel Holt (Independent)
- Zane Alcorn (Socialist Alliance)
- Tim Owen (Liberal)
- Milton Caine (Christian Democratic Party)
- Rod Noble (Independent)
Political situation
Newcastle has traditionally been dominated by the ALP, but the last election showed great potential for independents, particularly in the current political climate.
It will be harder for John Tate to gain the seat without fellow independent Gaudry channelling traditional Labor votes as preferences. Despite that, you would have to pick Tate as the favourite to win the seat. The Greens should also perform much more strongly, with Gaudry not standing and the ALP’s reputation even worse than it was in 2007.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jodi McKay | ALP | 13,166 | 31.2 | -17.1 |
| John Tate | IND | 10,159 | 24.1 | +24.1 |
| Bryce Gaudry | IND | 8,870 | 21.0 | +21.0 |
| Michael Osborne | GRN | 4,729 | 11.2 | -4.2 |
| Martin Babakhan | LIB | 4,129 | 9.8 | -16.4 |
| John Lee | CDP | 535 | 1.3 | -0.4 |
| Simon Hutabarat | IND | 306 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Hilda Armstrong | IND | 168 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Noel Holt | IND | 110 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jodi McKay | ALP | 16,311 | 51.2 | |
| John Tate | IND | 15,524 | 48.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Newcastle have been divided into four areas:
- North-East – Carrington, Islington, Tighes Hill, Stockton
- North-West – Mayfield and Waratah
- South-East – Cooks Hill, Merewether and Newcastle
- South-West – Adamstown, Hamilton, Lambton and New Lambton
No two-candidate-preferred results between McKay and Tate were produced by polling booths, so the only analysis we can do is based on primary vote figures. McKay polled most strongly in the northwest, compared to around 34% in the southwest and northeast, and only 22% in the southeast, the most populous part of the seat.
Tate’s strongest area was in the southeast, while only polling 15% in the northeast. Gaudry polled around 18-20% in most of the seat, but over 30% in the northeast. With Tate and Gaudry’s total vote figures being similar, it is also possible to show how the two candidates performed by booth. Tate outpolled Gaudry in most booths in the south of the seat, with Gaudry outpolling Tate in most of the north. You can see this shown in the final map on this page.
The other maps show primary vote figures for the five top candidates, the Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates, and independents Tate and Gaudry.
| Voter group | ALP % | Tate % | Gaudry % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 22.0 | 30.4 | 19.9 | 13,180 | 31.3 |
| South-West | 34.3 | 24.4 | 20.6 | 9,134 | 21.7 |
| North-West | 42.3 | 18.9 | 18.3 | 6,284 | 14.9 |
| North-East | 34.9 | 15.2 | 30.3 | 5,835 | 13.8 |
| Other votes | 31.5 | 23.8 | 18.7 | 7,739 | 18.4 |
Does anyone else think that Gaudry affected Tate’s chances of victory rather than aiding it? In this climate, Tate should probably win, unless there’s a huge Greens vote.
With Tim Owen contesting for the Libs, it appears as though this will be a full on fight. Tate’s easy victory is definitely not as certain as it was prior to Owen standing.
With all the bad political decisions and corruption sitting on Jodi and the Labor Party, you have to think her short lived political career is over.
A good chance of an Independent gain if the Liberals preference the Independent – Tate. Unfortunately the Newcastle railway area is another stuff-up, arguably largely due to the ALP, with the proposed GPT development on the never never. I can’t see the ALP holding the seat given Labor’s performance up there since the last election.
If Gaudry hadn’t run Tate would have been elected. This time will be interesting. It’s hard to imagine the Gaudry voters going across to Tate. I think it’s more likely they’ll go back to the ALP and in big numbers across to the Greens. I expect the Greens to pick up as much as 17-18% of the primary vote and who they preference (if anyone) may determine the result. McKay has has arguably been the hardest working local MP in the seat’s history, but the governement is a train wreck and that “brand” hurts her.
Tate has really done nothing at local govt level that should inspire the electorate and he is looking for the anti-ALP vote rather than promoting a policy agenda that would see him elected on merit.
Owen is a dark horse. On paper he is a formidable candidate, but one with little or no profile in the electorate.
Sutton for the Greens is well known, and is an intelligent and articulate candidate.
The big spanner in the works for all candidates is the optional preferential system, with no guarantee of preference “flowing”. If another independent candidate aimed up then McKay will sail back in. If not, toss a coin
Tate certainly hasn’t had a good rep in the community lately either, I think it will be pretty close.
Rex has covered it very well. It is unfortunate for Jodi that people will elect the Party, not the person. Her 4 years has shown how very very little Gaudry did in 16 years. The ALP has let her down and now she may pay the price. If she does get back in, she will still work hard on fixing up the Newcastle CBD.
Cant see Labor polling any worse on primaries than in 2007 and Tate would need preferences that might drift too much. There may be some Labor spin in comments here but if McKay is a more active MP than previous Labor MPs this would help her. Also not a Sydney seat. Maybe a Labor hold?
I also agree with Geoff. There was a lot of anti-Jodi voting in 2007 because of the way Gaudry was dumped and the anti-celebrity, anti-tall poppy attitude of Newcastle. This time around she is no longer an unknown who has (without being political) proved herself to the voters. I would not be suprised if she has a primary swing towards her. Maybe the only sitting ALP Candidate in the state to get that.
Newcastle will most probably stay with Labor…. rusted-on Labor voters will benefit from the plethora of candidates splitting the primary votes too many ways. Assume a healthy Green preference to Jodi and she should retain the seat.
Only threat is if Tate manages his campaign a lot smarter than 2007 and actually does a preference deal with the Lib’s. Issue is can’t see him winning many ex-Labor votes…how strong is the ‘true’ independent vote? Enough to get him re-elected year on year as Lord Mayor (somehow)! His on-going lack of ability to extract performance from Newcastle council (or even engage with his own councillor team) can’t be a positive. What chance does he have in winning favour from a Liberal State Government should he jag the seat – very little I would think.
I dont see ALP holding Newcastle – John Tate will sneak in. I can see the ALP spending big dollars in this seat.
I’ve finally heard of Tim Owen, according to the petition in my letterbox he is campaigning to install a lift at my local train station, and taking ‘decisive action’ (action is now spelt with a tick apparently).
these guys all suck, especially the girl one. the best outcome would be if the retarded Liberal guy got up but his chances are very low because it would require the most exquisite finesse to ensure the preferences flowed sufficiently and left labor starved second. This is completely beyond the candidate’s non existant level of subtlety. This will of course be used as justification to leave Newcastle out of any benefaction going round until the economy crashes under the Liberal’s own brand of incompetance
Remember Tate polled strongly as the Orkopolous child sex scandal was fresh in the mind. The whistleblower is still copping grief 3-4 years later. As a coverup, Labor announced a dam we didn’t need, that we had to pay half a billion for and has now been cancelled.
Remember the very fast train, that came and went, never stopping in the present.
Remember the container port handling facility we were promised. Port Botany got it instead and they didn’t want it. The car handling terminal to Port Kembla. Now fully laden trucks drive up the monsterous hills out of Wollongong.
No, need to go on. There has been far too many broken promises and even more we’re not listening to you because you’re not Sydney.
But, whoever gets in we need a better deal for Newcastle and the Hunter.
We are the powerhouse (literally and figuratively) of the state. If it involves coal, it gets built. If it involves people, then we get NOTHING in return. This has to stop.
As Anthony Green will tell you, in OPV, if you come first, then you almost certainly win the poll.
I cant see Labor’s primary going lower because Gaudry attracted allot of rusted on ALP voting left wing mining union votes. The sort of votes that will never end up in the greens pile.
I suggest Labor may increase their primary by 5-10% without Gaudry.
Tate’s greatest challenge is getting as close as possible on primaries to win. He finished 6% behind last time, and needs to get a greater increase in primaries than labor, plus 5% to have any real chance.
Looking at past independents who have come close (Pat Reilly in Willoughby for example), 4 years does tend to make it harder as well.
Last time Libs couldnt break into double digits. They would need a primary vote swing of at least 35%. Aint gonna happen.
My prediction – Independent gain, 3-5% swing
One of the messiest contests in the state.
Gaudry’s presence was the major spoiler in 2007 (Gaudry was frankly a monumental waste of space & proof the ALP Left provides it’s full quotas of undistinguished hacks) & his vote will revert back to McKay or to Green.
Can’t help thinking Tate is more “wind” than substance but he may get up if he snags Lib preferences. Like George Keegan before him, he’s likely to be a “oncer”.
The biggest impediment to Tate winning this seat is probably the Owen getting too much primary vote and exhausting
I wonder whether the result in the Hunters will be affected by Gillard’s Carbon tax?
dovif – absolutely agree with your first sentence. Tate and Owen would be stupid not to have a preference swap here.
Given the failure of independents Oakeshott/Windsor, I’ll be interested to see if this affects the independent vote. Maybe not so much as it’s not a massively conservative electorate but will be interesting to see.
Aussie, Newcastle’s nothing like Port Macquarie or Tamworth, for example. Tate I feel is a different kettle of fish to Oakeshott/Windsor.
A poster of Crikey says that the Lib will preference Tate – gives him a far better chance of winning you’d think.
This is an election where Independents in conservative seats will do poorly except for Torbay (as a result of the Federal election – yes, Oakey and Windsor are no hope next time), however Independents in safe ALP seats will do exceptionally well. I feel very sorry for Dawn Fardell who is a very good local member.
I don’t think Oakey or Windsor really understood the hatred in their electorates of the ALP before they made their decisions. I think their constituents just assumed that they would support a co-alition government if required. They will pay the price no matter what happens. A recent Nationals poll in Lyne put Oakeshott at 4th behind Nat, Grn, ALP, and then Oakey.
Tate in a toss-up.
DB,
The poll in Lyne was unscientific and you know it. Dont be too quick to right off Oakey this early. He will get ALP preferences big time.
Benji – you are not serious are you? Do you really think Oakeshott can survive with a tax on carbon and tax on resources? Do you live in Lyne? There is more than one poll Benji (I have stated only the latest). The Nats are conducting polls up there all of the time now. They would meet reasonable scientific due process. You can call it unscientific or what you like, but you only have to spend 5 minutes in Lyne to know what they think of this bloke. As I said, Labor preferences won’t help him, because he will run 3rd or 4th.
I can understand an argument about Windsor survivng, but Oakeshott is no chance. None at all.
Anyway, just for laughs Benji, see what happens to Bessling who is Oakeshott’s mate in Port Macquarie. Any swing against Bessling will be magnified by 3 against Oakeshott.
A Tate win would be a victory of inaction. he’s been on local council 30years and has achieved nothing but dysfunction. His website has a list of achievements that are the work of others. Tim Owen is a refreshing change, but without the profile of Tate he’ll struggle to get enough primaries to win it
DB,
Lets wait and see if Besslings’s bus was tampered with. And who did it.
Also lets see the full package of the carbon tax and associated compensation before we can be sure that Oakshott is gone.
And what happens if the bus wasn’t tampered with and no one did it….you are making very serious allegations without any evidence. From my experience it is dangerous, and obvioulsy(should you chose to identify yourself) defamatory.
I would recommend that you let the police enquiry play out…you are unfortuantley suffering from premature adjudication.
If Rob Oakeshott isn’t in trouble for the support to Labor, then he should be in trouble for the misquote of Highlander! An absolute disgrace and I hope Christopher Lambert and Freddie Mercury lamp him one for it in the afterlife!
There actually was a 2CP count between McKay and Tate available here (pdf file 14 MB).
The upper house votes in Newcastle in 2007 were 41% ALP, 24% LIbs, 18% Greens.
John Tate has a website at http://www.johntate.com.au/
Noel Holt is a member of the unregistered Socialist Equality Party, whilst Rod Noble is the President of the local branch of the NTEU.
Media reports indicate Tate and Owen are swapping preferences, whilst the Greens are not recommending preferences to any of the other three main candidates.
Below is an email from Bob Cook, Newcastle councilor on Tate’s ticket. I dont think Bob is very happy with him!!
OPTIONAL PREFERENTIAL – that means you only have to put 1 on the ballot sheet. Ne need to fill in all squares.
DON”T fill in all squares unless are willing to give your vote to someone else.
For the seat of NEWCASTLE only cast a vote for either of the two main parties. No-one else can achieve anything for the city.
Showing some bias, you may be aware that candidate John Tate has been in conflict with all other councillors for some time. (if you examine the records it goes back many years).
I was elected to council on his ticket, and was a firm supporter. Ask yourself why a reasonable, responsible person like me would turn against him. Trust me there are VERY serious reasons. There is legal action in progress that will address this in due course and I am not able to discuss it now, but time will tell. Last Tuesday night EVERY councillor voted to take action relating to him, this is not the first time.
If you asked my opinion I would make it clear to you this man does not deserve your vote.
Attached is ABC radio report on last week’s council meeting. Ask yourself why.
The following questions were submitted to the candidates forum last Wednesday, one was asked but none were answered.
* After last night’s council meeting made a unanimous decision to search council computer records for the source of leaks that supported your accusations on Stateline, accusations now proved incorrect, today you describe this as a ‘political witch hunt’ for the coming election. Why is it that 6 non-aligned independent councillors are driving this ‘witch-hunt’?
* Why have every single one of your running mates in the last 3 terms of council – over 12 years, all deserted you, turned against you, and made a series of negative claims about your performance?
* It has been said that your time as lord mayor has been one of the most dysfunctional and divisive periods in council’s recent history. Your leadership and team work abilities have been questioned. Obviously people are claiming you have relationship problems. What does this say about your ability to be our state representative?
NO ANSWERS. There are many other questions, but this man will not be held accountable, – even though his election flyer claims accountability.
I urge you not to mark the square next to his name, leave it blank.
Regards,
Bob Cook
PS I am willing to be held accountable for my opinion above, and will in due course.
If Tate wins, Newcastle is gone for a number for a number of reasons,
1. The Libs will realise that if they can’t win in 2011, they will never win and goodbye to marginal seat status.
2. Tate will have no power in a Government with a massive majority. He is disliked by both sides. He will get FA for Newcastle from a Lib Government
3. Tate will therefore loose in 2015
4. Jodi will be gone and replaced by another left wing ALP Candidate and Newcastle will slip back into the Bryce Gaudry days of doing nothing.
Newcastle Herald 25/03/11 – Tate plummets to 16% in leaked polling from the ALP. This matches the sentiment on the streets of Newcastle. If there are Tate voters out there, they don”t seem to be telling people about it. The favourite status never seemed to make sense. If you can get $6 on Tim Owen, I would take it now.
Jeff,
Completely disagree.
1) “Marginal seat status”? Newcastle is safe as houses vs the Liberals, even in 2011. Tate winning will cause the seat to be “marginal” because Labor will need to work their arses off to win it back, not take it for granted as in the past.
2) SFA? Tate will get Sweet F*** Plenty from the Libs. It’s in their interests to help out Tate to deprive Labor of a seat. That must be obvious
3) Not necessarily. If Labor are still unelectable and the Libs prop up Tate with plenty of goodies, he stands an excellent chance of winning re-election in 2015.
4) see 1-3 above. It’s in the Libs interest for Tate to be seen to be “doing something”…they’ll be throwing bucketloads of $$$ at Newcaslte if Tate wins.
Possible Liberal gain based on news this afternoon.
I think the Newcastle Herald’s report today is pointing towards a Liberal win. Using the figures in The Newcastle Herald, Tate will get knocked out on preferences before Libs. Libs at 30% plus 3/4 of Tate’s 16% = 42%. ALP at 25% plus 1/2 of Greens 18% = 34%. And that is assuming ALP gets 1/2 of the Greens votes which is a big call as the Greens are not preferencing anybody. Libs will get 3/4 of Tate’s votes as he is preferencing Libs. Even if these figures are out by 20%, they still point to a Lib victory.
DB – what was the news this afternoon?
MDM – I think there will be a repeat of the George Keegan term. He got very little out of the Liberal Government. He just stopped the run of the Labour right (Arthur Wade), lasted one term and was replaced by the sleepy Bryce Gaudry from the Labour left. If Tate wins, history will repeat. Tate will get as much as Greg Piper does in Lake Macquarie, very little.
I think Owen’s going to win the seat, which will be a big upset, since the Liberals came 5th in the seat in 2007. Tate’s popularity is sinking rapidly; McKay (while a hard-working local member) suffers from being associated with the ALP state government; and while Sutton will have a big swing towards the Greens, I don’t think it will be enough to put him in the running. And I’m saying this as a long-time Labor supporter.
But it’s going to be interesting, with four candidates polling around 20% or more, and many votes exhausting their preferences.
As long as McKay is gone, the world will be a better place. Sevens electoral coverage last night had labor conced defeat in the seat of newcastle, and the Kerry from the liberal party claimed it as their own. Farewell McKay 🙂
Sunday 27th March – Recount is looking bad for Jodi. 2PP might have Owen 1,000 in front with postal and absentees to go. Tate did better than I thought. I am still searching Newcastle trying to find someone who voted for him. I thought he would not break 10%. The only reason he got any votes is because someone who is pissed off with the ALP and has promised their parents never to vote Liberal had to have somewhere to vote. They were voting “Independent”, not Tate. Now Tate needs to start being the Lord Mayor and fix the city instead of setting himself up for the next election by arguing with the NSW Government every second day.
So what happened? Expectations were for Tate to win everywhere and he comes 4th! Behind both liberal and labor and even the radical Greens???????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So who actually won??? I haven’t been able to find any information since election night.
Tiff, with 75.8% of the votes counted, the Liberals have 52.6% of the 2PP.
The Pundits did not read the 2007 results Gaudry did not preference Tate and his votes overwhelmingly exhausted. Tate was never a real favourite for the seat. Owen the Liberal will win this election and should have been close to McKay in any comment on the seat if people were in the Newcastle area and saw his campaign. Outstanding!
McKay struggled with little help from the State Office and constant interference in the campaign like the Bob Hawke telephone calls.
People who thought Tate would win sufferred from the Sydney centric disease.
Newcastle people are not fools Owen is going somewhere,Tate should go back to his city work and McKay was the victim of Sydney Sussex street and the Labor governments failure with GPT.She did not have her heart in it towards the end.
Hey Disgusted…if Novocastrians are not fools and looking for someone that is “going somewhere”, explain the Federal MP for Newcastle.
This, along with Campbelltown, was the biggest upset from the election. A magnificent performance by Tim Owen to take this seat, against the odds. Congratulations.