LIB 5.4% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Mike Baird, since 2007.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Manly covers all of Manly Council and southeastern parts of Warringah Council. It covers the suburbs of Manly, Balgowlah, Seaforth, Queenscliff, Curl Curl and parts of Brookvale.
History
The seat of Manly has existed since the 1927 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party for most of that period. The ALP held the seat for six years in the 1970s and 1980s, and independent MPs held Manly from 1991 to 2007.
The seat was first won in 1927 by Alfred Reid of the United Australia Party, he held the seat until 1945, joining the Liberal Party shortly before his death in 1945.
The 1945 Manly by-election was won by Liberal candidate Douglas Darby. He was at the right-wing end of the Liberal Party, and sat as an independent Liberal from 1962 to 1968. He held the seat as a Liberal from 1968 to 1978, when he retired.
The 1978 election was a landslide for the Labor Party, and Manly was won by the ALP’s Alan Stewart. He was re-elected in 1981, but lost in 1984 to Liberal candidate David Hay.
Hay was re-elected in 1988, and became a minister in the Greiner Coalition government.
In 1991, Hay was challenged by independent Manly councillor Peter Macdonald, who won the seat.
Macdonald was re-elected in 1995, and stepped down in 1999. He was succeeded by David Barr, another independent who had been elected to Manly Council on Macdonald’s independent ticket. Macdonald later won election as Mayor of Manly in 2004, serving one term until he was defeated in 2008.
Barr served two terms as the independent Member for Manly. In 2007, he was defeated by Liberal candidate Mike Baird.
The son of former state minister and federal MP Bruce Baird, Baird won a fierce preselection against Michael Darby, son of former Manly MP Douglas Darby. He now serves as Shadow Treasurer in the NSW Opposition.
Candidates
- Timothy Wainwright (Christian Democratic Party)
- Ian Hehir (Greens)
- Mike Baird (Liberal)
- Jennifer Jary (Labor)
Political situation
While Manly has a long history of independent domination at a state and local level, the local independent grouping has weakened in recent years, losing the state seat in 2007 and control of the council in 2008. Baird should hold on without too much trouble.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Baird | LIB | 18,284 | 45.1 | +4.2 |
| David Barr | IND | 12,655 | 31.2 | -0.8 |
| Daniel Pearce | ALP | 3,981 | 9.8 | -3.1 |
| Sarah Weate | GRN | 3,931 | 9.7 | +1.2 |
| Penelope Wynne | IND | 660 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Wally Vanderpoll | CDP | 573 | 1.4 | +0.4 |
| Neil Hamilton | AAFI | 443 | 1.1 | -0.6 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Baird | LIB | 19,263 | 53.4 | +4.6 |
| David Barr | IND | 16,842 | 46.6 | -4.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Manly have been divided into three areas. Those booths in Warringah Council have been grouped as Harbord. Booths in Manly Council have been divided between Manly in the east and Balgowlah in the west.
The Liberal Party won a two-candidate-preferred majority in all three areas. In Harbord and Manly, the margin over the independent was less than 1%, but it was almost 6% in Balgowlah.
The ALP and Greens polled almost exactly the same number of votes in Manly, with the ALP polling only 50 votes more. The ALP outpolled the Greens in Harbord, but the Greens came ahead in Balgowlah and Manly.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Harbord | 8.9 | 12.2 | 50.8 | 14,240 | 35.1 |
| Balgowlah | 8.7 | 6.8 | 55.9 | 12,409 | 30.6 |
| Manly | 11.6 | 7.6 | 50.9 | 6,001 | 14.8 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 11.9 | 55.5 | 7,877 | 19.4 |
I take it Labor and the Greens polled the same number of votes in the yellow booth?
Baird is very impressive and in some ways O’Farrell is lucky to be leader with this guy around. I can see no significant Independent challenge against someone of this quality.
Books on Manly:John Power edited interesting one on the 1965 contest and Alan Stewart wrote an autobiography. Darby family fixture of the NSW far right, ‘uglies’, Captive Nations etc. etc.Northern beaches used to be less wealthy than the north shore and provide a reasonable Labor vote but this is long gone. ‘Manly’ was in reference to the noble bearing of the local aboriginal popualtion.
Is there any particular reason why the beachside suburbs tended to be significantly less affluent than the harbour-side? I’d have thought alot of those northern beaches areas were pretty desirable locations.
History and timing of the Northern Beaches development has something to do with it I think- the area started out with holiday shacks – you can still find traces of them back of the beach at Narrabeen hidden between the multi story blocks of flats that have gone up.
Baird is lucky that the local media do not hold him to account – he has performed dismally!
Gee Darren, you are tough. You can’t hold him to account until he is in Government…..surely???
Hey DB – like many people I also object to having a man who believes the planet is only 6,500 years old as my MP –
Darren – ah well, we don’t always get the MPs we like. How the 6500 years really impacts on current day politics or Tallyroom, I fail to understand. You can always move to another seat. Perhaps Lakemba may work well for you.
I expect Baird will win by at least a 15% margin to his nearest rival. He is popular in the electorate and I am not aware of any high profile Independent running. In any case, the electorate will not risk an Independent in any conservative seat given the unpopular events (for conservative voters) at the Federal election. I am not aware of any planned strong Liberal campaign here. It would only occur if there were to be an extremely high profile conservative Independent running.
it has to do with the quality of the man – or otherwise in this case
Mike Baird will balloon this seat out but there has been one local issue firing up lately. A row has broken out over the use of Brookvale Oval by the mighty Sea Eagles. Some elements of Warringah Council (with the idiots from Friends of Brookvale and nutjob Vincent De Luca) are attempting to block the upgrades being done to the ground. Brad, Mike and Rob are keen Manly fans and know that this issue is close to the heart of the entire Northern Beaches. They don’t want to see the team head to the Central Coast or using Manly Oval.
My prediction: Liberal retain, final margin of at least 20% vs ALP.
Macdonald held on in 1995 by just 243 votes. One wonders how different the history of Australian politics may have been if the Liberal candidate, David Oldfield, had won.
The Labor candidate is Jennifer Grant.
This seat will turn into another Lib vs Greens vote, as the majority of the left-wing supporters of David Barr will go straight to the Greens. The rest will probably end up back with Mike and he should take this seat on Primaries.