Myall Lakes – NSW 2011

NAT 17.4%

Incumbent MP
John Turner, since 1988.

Geography
Mid-North Coast. Myall Lakes covers a majority of both Greater Taree and Great Lakes council areas. It covers the towns of Taree and Forster.

History
The seat of Myall Lakes has existed since 1988, and has always been held by the National Party.

When the seat was created, it partly replaced the seat of Gloucester, which had existed since 1880. Gloucester had been held by the Country/National Party since 1950.

Myall Lakes was won in 1988 by John Turner of the National Party. He has held the seat ever since. He served as deputy leader of the NSW National Party from 1999 to 2003.

Candidates

Political situation
Myall Lakes is a safe Nationals seat. The ALP may be at risk of falling into third place behind a strong independent.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John Turner NAT 21,640 49.2 +11.2
Lisa Clancy ALP 8,970 20.4 +0.1
Eddie Loftus IND 8,318 18.9 +18.9
Judy Donnelly GRN 2,640 6.0 +1.7
John Stephens IND 1,458 3.3 +3.3
Waldron Perry AAFI 990 2.2 +1.1

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John Turner NAT 23,779 67.4 +3.5
Lisa Clancy ALP 11,505 32.6 -3.5

Booth breakdown
Booths in Myall Lakes have been divided into four areas. Booths in the main urban areas have been grouped as Taree and Forster-Tuncurry. The remaining booths in Greater Taree council area have been grouped as “Taree Surrounds”, while the remaining booths in Great Lakes council area are grouped together.

The Nationals primary vote varied from 53% in Forster-Tuncurry to 44% in Taree. Independent candidate Eddie Loftus had a widely varying vote, varying from 24.5% in Taree, to 12.7% in Great Lakes. On the other hand, Labor’s vote is very consistent across the seat, varying from 21.6% to 20.1%. The ALP came second in Forster-Tuncurry and Great Lakes, while Loftus came second in Taree and Taree Surrounds.

Polling booths in Myall Lakes at the 2007 state election. Taree in orange, Taree Surrounds in green, Forster-Tuncurry in blue, Great Lakes in yellow.
Voter group NAT % ALP % IND % Total votes % of votes
Taree Surrounds 46.7 20.1 20.4 11,273 25.6
Forster-Tuncurry 53.0 20.4 17.1 10,231 23.2
Taree 44.3 21.1 24.5 8,810 20.0
Great Lakes 50.1 21.6 12.7 4,643 10.5
Other votes 52.1 19.4 16.8 9,059 20.6
Nationals primary votes in Myall Lakes at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Myall Lakes at the 2007 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Eddie Loftus in Myall Lakes at the 2007 state election.
Nationals primary votes in Taree at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Taree at the 2007 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Eddie Loftus in Taree at the 2007 state election.
Nationals primary votes in Forster at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Forster at the 2007 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Eddie Loftus in Forster at the 2007 state election.

15 COMMENTS

  1. Eddie Loftus was the Mayor of Taree, hence higher vote in that part of the electorate. There were also two independents in 2003 who got into double digits, but didn’t swap preferences and didn’t overtake Labor.

    Steve Attkins has won the backing of Rob Oakeshott, which may boost his prospects, but I can’t imagine he has a high enough profile to make a significant impact. Still, with the history of strong votes for independents and no sitting MP, this seat may be potentially winnable this year for an independent with a sufficiently high profile

  2. The Nationals will most likely increase their margin here. Attkins will be lucky to get 4000 votes and I suspect he probably has lost some with the endorsement of Oakeshott.

  4. I believe Steve Attkins has something to offer and the National Party are so out of touch with voters (these are the comments I hear from my contemporaries) that they will struggle. Steve Attkins already has delivered and proven he can do the job as he is a registered lobbiest. The only thing against him is the cash cow that is the National Party. Having Rob Oakshot back him is not a negative. The last thing the seat of Myall needs is to be a safe seat which up until now it always has been. Safe seats get NOTHING. The days of party politics are over in Australia and not before time. Party agendas are far removed from the real people of Australia.

  5. Shae – nice sentiments, but the Nationals are in no danger here. Regarding your point on party politics, why do you think Gillard wants a carbon tax? Easy answer: to win ALP support from the Greens. That is the ONLY thing it is about.

  6. Or because Labor wants to take action on climate change, as they have been saying for years? It was very gutsy for Gillard to support a carbon tax, full knowing how mainstream Australia would react.

    The carbon tax will not win Labor votes. To say that it is a vote-gaining excecise rather than a brave policy move for the benefit of Australia is just bizarre.

  7. Hamish -Sorry Hamish, you may have misunderstood. I have known Gillard personally for too long to know that is crap. Gillard didn’t even consult the ALP backbench before releasing this policy. It is all about power (as it is for all politicians and leaders). And this is the crux of it: The ALP are within a whisker of having to form a permanent co-alition with the Greens federally as I predicted in 2009. That is why Gillard did what she did (to improve the ALP’s primary support) albeit at the 2PP expense to the co-alition at this point in time. There is a massive identity crisis within the ALP and a total lacking of confidence and she is trying to arrest that with all her might. With your primary vote at about 35% and dwindling, you have nowhere to hide so you need to take risks and be brave, which is what Gillard has done. Ballsy from that point of view I suppose, but the belief that climate change action is necessary was a secondary concern here. You should know that politics comes first and everything else second. Gillard is not passionate about the environment. Anyone who knows her well from a past life knows this to be true.

    Anyway, sticking to the point here, the Nats will retain this comfortably.

  8. I am rather surprised that the Nationals had such a low primary vote given the margin. The 07 result demonstrates how state margins are amplified by OPV, and how the significance of a good primary vote is essential.

  10. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and thats what makes Australia great. The circles I’m moving in see no future for political parties because we have all had enough. There is a global swing away from them and us, take a look at Egypt! I have not met a politician yet(and I have met a few) other than Rob Oakshot who didnt come across as being arrogant and out of touch. These people who are elected to SERVE the people who vote for them need to learn what the term PUBLIC SERVANT means. A career in politics should be viewed as a career in serving those who elect you and those who dont. It is not about a nice office in Macquarie Street it is about getting results. My question is this, how many questions being asked in parliment are on record for retiring member of the Nationals for the seat of Myall last year?

  12. @shae……. political parties will always exist……. if 93 independents were elected to the nsw parliament they will soon form… groupings or parties. Our world is a lot faster paced then it used to be… a politican if they do their job properly have a hard job. If they are slack or self indulgent they’ll probably be dumped by their party. I have been the member of a political party for over 30 years… of course they make mistakes and are not perfect……. but you keep on trying. One problem is that fewer & fewer people join or stay in parties…… for the ALP the problems of the trade union movt mirror their own. ……. but to say they are all no good is just a cop out

  13. Mick, there is a subtle yet telling difference between political parties in parliament and an electoral machine – one is engaged in parliamentary politics, the other in electoral politics. These are two subtly different beasts. What we are seeing is the collapse (or, more accurately, privatisation) of political electoral machines. If a candidate can pay people to hand out how to votes, which happens, and use mass or social media to ‘sell’ their message, then there is no need to build structures in the community to support their election. Through this communities are bought out of the electoral process. Witness how hard it is for an independent to get up now! I could turn to what happens to public policy when an electoral party becomes a marketing exercise, but that is probably for another blog…

  14. Shae – FYI over the last 4 years our local member has asked 315 questions on notice to parliament. Over the last 12 months he has asked 61 questions on notice, which is more than one a day for the days that parliament has sat. A question “on notice” is lodged on a parliamentary sitting day in writing and the minister receiving the question has 30 days to answer. Generally speaking these questions are electorate specific and considered important to our local area.

    Our local member does serve his constituants day in and day out. The difference between him and some other politicians in the mid north coast is that he doesn’t run around blowing his own trumpet telling everyone what a great job he is doing – he just gets in and does it.

  15. Interesting, the CDP candidate obviously dropped out here.

    Barry Wright has been a candidate at a few past state and federal elections from memory.

    The Nationals candidate was hospitalised after a serious car accident this week.

Comments are closed.