ALP 11.1%
Incumbent MP
Andrew McDonald, since 2007.
Geography
Southwestern Sydney. Macquarie Fields covers northern suburbs of the City of Campbelltown and southwestern parts of the City of Liverpool. Suburbs include Macquarie Fields, Glenfield, Denham Court, Casula, Lurnea, Prestons, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park and Austral.
History
The seat of Macquarie Fields was first established at the 1988 election. It was a successor to the seat of Ingleburn, which was the first seat created between the seats of Liverpool and Campbelltown when it was created in 1981. The 1988 election shifted the seat north, and renamed the seat to reflect the change. In 1991, the seat moved deeper into Liverpool, and was renamed Moorebank. The changes were partly reversed in 1999, when the seat was again named Macquarie Fields. It has had that name ever since. This seat, whatever its name, has always been held by the ALP. The seat was held continuously by the Knowles family from 1981 to 2005.
Ingleburn was first won in 1981 by Liverpool deputy mayor Stan Knowles. He was re-elected in 1984 and 1988, the last time in the renamed seat of Macquarie Fields. Knowles resigned in 1990, and the ensuing by-election was won by his son Craig, a former Mayor of Liverpool.
Knowles was re-elected in the renamed Moorebank in 1991 and 1995, before his seat was again named Macquarie Fields in 1999. He joined the ministry upon Labor winning government in 1995, and after the 2003 election held a large ministerial brief. His position was damaged by his tenure as Minister for Health, and while he had once been considered a possible successor to Bob Carr as Premier, by the time of Carr’s retirement in 2005 Knowles was no longer considered a contender. Knowles retired at the same time as Carr and his deputy, Andrew Refshauge.
The 2005 by-election was won by Campbelltown city councillor Steven Chaytor. He was opposed at the Macquarie Fields by-election by former nurse and whistleblower Nola Fraser, running for the Liberals. The ALP suffered a 12% swing in the by-election.
At 29, Chaytor was considered an up-and-comer in the party. This was cut short barely a year later, when he faced charges of assault against his partner from an incident in December 2006. With the impending election, Chaytor was suspended from the ALP. He was found guilty in January 2007, after which he was expelled from the ALP and a new candidate was found. The ALP now preselected Dr Andrew McDonald, a doctor with previous involvement with Campbelltown Hospital around the time of the issues which had affected Knowles as Minister for Health and had led to Nola Fraser’s political involvement.
Chaytor’s conviction was later overturned on appeal, and he served out his term on Campbelltown City Council, retiring in September 2008.
At the 2007 election, McDonald held off against Fraser, with a similar 12% swing to that in the 2005 by-election.
Candidates
- Joshua Green (Christian Democratic Party)
- Sam Eskaros (Liberal)
- Nola Fraser (Independent)
- Mick Allen (Independent)
- Simon McCaffrey (Independent)
- Bill Cashman (Greens)
- Andrew McDonald (Labor)
Political situation
Macquarie Fields is traditionally a very strong area for the ALP. Scandals have hit the ALP hard in the area, suffering a 12% swing in 2007. This has put Macquarie Fields within reach of a Liberal win, but this still seems unlikely. It seems more likely that much of the damage hitting the ALP elsewhere has already hit Macquarie Fields. It will be a disaster for the ALP to lose such a seat, but the current margin puts it within reach.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew McDonald | ALP | 21,918 | 53.0 | -10.2 |
| Nola Fraser | LIB | 13,678 | 33.1 | +11.0 |
| Peter Butler | GRN | 2,092 | 5.1 | +0.3 |
| Hany Gayed | CDP | 1,806 | 4.4 | +1.2 |
| Frank Corrigan | AAFI | 1,160 | 2.8 | +1.0 |
| Mick Allen | IND | 703 | 1.7 | +0.9 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew McDonald | ALP | 23,359 | 61.1 | -12.2 |
| Nola Fraser | LIB | 14,860 | 38.9 | +12.2 |
Booth breakdown
Macquarie Fields has been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Campbelltown in the south of the seat have been grouped as ‘Glenfield’. Those in the northeast have been grouped as Casula, and those in the northwest as Hoxton Park.
The ALP’s majority was over 63% in Casula, and around 60% in the other parts of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Casula | 4.4 | 63.2 | 14,910 | 36.1 |
| Glenfield | 5.0 | 59.2 | 10,180 | 24.6 |
| Hoxton Park | 4.8 | 60.9 | 9,324 | 22.5 |
| Other votes | 7.0 | 59.8 | 6,943 | 16.8 |
What’s up with the 62% LIberal booth on the border between the councils? Some sort of retirement village?
That’s Ingleburn North. It’s a sparsely populated area mainly made up of large properties, which tend to be wealthier. The area to the north of that booth is about to get developed, so that should change in the near future.
though there are allegedly more huge retirement villages being built in that region over the next term,,,
Matt – it’s the Macquarie Links estate where they have a flash golf course and it is a gated community. I reckon the Liberals will win it and I can’t believe I’m saying it!
I was doorknocking here with Bill Cashman today. Really positive respone to Green activism on a few local issues. I would not be surpried if the swing here to the Greens was greater than most other Western Sydney seats.
Mick Allen is again running as an Independent.
Has there been any word on the strength of the Labor and Liberal candidates in Mac Fields? I think it’s quite commendable that the Libs have nominated a candidate of non-European descent in a winnable seat (on current numbers). How many other Coalition candidates of NESB backgrounds stand good chances of winning seats?
Shran – given the demographics of this seat, I would have thought it would be virtually impossible for the Liberals to win this one. Campbelltown would be a better hope, but I can’t see that happening either (although Keneally and O’Farrell have been in Campbelltown twice in the last fortnight, so that gives an indication as to where the larger swing and margin is). Liverpool will be safe, as will be Lakemba, Fairfield (more west now) and probably Cabramatta. But pretty much every other seat in the suburban south and south-west (say south-east of the M5) will probably be won by the Liberals starting from Rockdale and moving out in the suburbs. Question marks are probably on Campbelltown, Kogarah and East Hills (but I think the Libs will win 2 of those 3).
This is Macquarie Fields, a seat that the Liberal Party would not have the slightest clue about, in terms of demographics and needs (except for Denham Court, which is responsible for that Liberal 62% figure). It would be the most bizarre result if the Libs won it – the only one more bizarre would be if Mount Druitt went to the Libs.
Besides, MacDonald is one of the better ALP people and is known to be a bit of a rebel against Tripodi, et al.
My prediction: Labor retain, 3-7% swing to Liberals.
Andrew McDonald is an excellent Labor MP worth saving. He should win.
This seat may actually swing Labor’s way.
If the libs had any chance in the world to win Macquarie Fields, it was last time. The 10% primary vote drop last time was devastating to the 2PP.
I think the “Political Situation” comment – “It seems more likely that much of the damage hitting the ALP elsewhere has already hit Macquarie Fields.” is completely correct.
Labor will comfortably hold this seat, a couple of percentage point swing, and 50/50 bet the swing could be pro-labor
Prediction – the swing already happened here and without the local issues of 2007, Labor will retain this with a 3-5% to the Libs.
Nola Fraser is also running as an independent for the seat of macquarie fields in the 2011 elections
Anthony looking forward to election night with your prediction on Macquarie Fields with a swing to Labor.This will help McDonald’s rise within the Labor ranks if he does get a swing. He is not a bad candidate at all. (i.e. He wasnt a Tripodi fan)
Dr Simon McCaffery will be running as the DLP endorsed Independant candidate in the seat of Macquarie Fields. He would like to see an improvement in local health services including tackling mental health issues as well as paid maternity leave for all mothers not just working.
Vote Simon McCaffery – http://campaigns.dlp.org.au/state-election/macquarie-fields
How interesting, that two ‘Dr Mc’s will be running from two (self-styled) Labor Party…although, of course, this couldn’t have influenced the DLP’s thinking at all, not with the former Bradfield’s candidate’s strong links to Western Sydney.
Apologies about my fairly appalling grammar in the previous post. ‘Parties’, not ‘Party’, and ‘Bradfield’, not ‘Bradfield’s’, of course.
It appears to be confirmed that the 2x Liberal candidate Nola Fraser will be running as an independent (listed on Antony’s guide). How will this affect things here?
Now that WILL shake things up. She’s likely to get a lot of votes in the current climate, and ultimately her preferences may decide the election.
There is not good news here for the ALP either based on weekend polling, but I can’t imagine them losing this one.
What did the polling say DB?
51/49 to ALP on 2PP.
I hope McDonald gets back in. He is one of the most highly regarding MPs I can think of (that the swing appears to be 10% when statewide polls are higher probably reflects this).
DB on those numbers I’m actually tempted to think the ALP will hold this seat. Other seats around it are swinging bigger – the fact that this one isn’t says something to be about either the ALP campaign, the demographics of the area, or the strength of the candidate, or all of the above.
Hamish – this poll from the weekend is before O’Farrell’s announcement and commitment on widening the M5, which is THE (and I am not joking) major issue for the electorates such as Wollondilly, Campbelltown, Camden, Macquarie Fields, Liverpool, East Hills, Menai, and Oatley. I’d suggest despite all the odds, this seat too is now very much in the possibilities for the co-alition. O’Farrell might just have won a swag of seats based on this commitment alone. Expect him to spend a bit of time in these parts over the course of the next 2 weeks.
People who were angry about the M5 already weren’t going to vote Labor this year.
Lachlan – can’t agree. You would have had 80% to the co-alition then.
Well it’s unfortunate if promising to widen the M5 impresses voters so much, because building bigger roads only induces additional traffic – it makes congestion worse in the medium-long term.
Sorry for a non-psephological comment.
Sorry to go off-topic to an extent, but will it? There aren’t really many other roads to get to the city from the South-Western Suburbs.
morgieb – agree with you. Wouldn’t be fun going Camden Valley Way and then the Hume Hwy or Canterbury Rd. This certainly will get the voters attention.
DB — do you know if Nola Fraser was tested in the weekend polling? Any indications on how her new campaign, just in the nick of time, might fare?
From having lived in the area for a quarter-century, I can tell you that widening of the M5 is no solution to the problems. The population in South-Western Sydney is planned to increase massively over the next few years, and a widening of the M5 will only ease the congestion for a short time.
The public transport options in this area are extremely limited, with the existing trains missing Camden and Wollondilly entirely and with the residents of Campbelltown poorly serviced by buses. It forces a lot of people on to the roads, and the extremely bad congestion is the only thing stopping more people from driving. The solution is extensive expansion of public transport, including better bus networks and at least one new train line. The two-station extension into Leppington is no good, only reaching areas that are yet to be developed.
The M5 expansion is only a short-term solution, but I can see it being very popular with locals.
Simon McCaffrey is NOT endorsed by the NSW branch of the DLP led by Michael O’Donohue since 2008 and presently.
The Nick Williams’ group of which Dr McCaffrey is with, has not been recognised for the Secretaryship and registered officer positions through the NSW Electoral Commission.
As recently as 16th February 2011, the NSW Electoral Commission has re-affirmed that they recognise Michael O’Donohue,my friend and colleague, as the Secretary and also as the registered officer. The Commission has received lots of correspondence from both sides and have decided not to hand over authority to this small group who met in a church hall in November 2010.
Meanwhile the real Branch has hundreds of members; and the Nick William’s group can do as they please. But I hope that some of them will disavow themselves of the fantasy that they are the DLP in NSW- for they are not.
Shran – yes, will probably get around 7.5-15% of the vote. Her preferences will be crucial. I don’t know her intentions. These were split 50/50 in the poll given the large potential for exhaustion.
Ben – agree that public transport solutions will be required around here and further west. But the M5 commitment (as you say) will probably be the catalyst that turns many lifetime ALP voters to the co-alition this time in these south-west seats (particularly given Keneally has discounted it). Perhaps a bus service running to the nearest train stations is an idea to be had.
Michael Webb – gee, having read the dlp link above, it’s all a bit complex and confusing there Michael….
I have started deleting comments about this DLP split on individual seat threads. It is not relevant to this electorate, and I don’t believe my reader’s care about microparty factional squabbles.
Good move Ben… can you be fair and remove Michael Webb’s posts as well. thanks
No, the existing posts will stay. I will be deleting any new comments.
There is the big issue of the intermodals in this area with them backing onto Casula. Plus Casula and Prestons is now filled with many army houses which traditionally vote Liberal. Sam achieved a 12% swing in the federal election, and so did greens. I feel with Bill Cashman being a very active greens candidate will take a lot of the Labor votes actually putting this in reach with Sam Eskaros.
The decision of Nola Fraser to run as an independent makes this interesting. I think this is generally a seat where independents are unlikely to win, due to a large non-english speaking population and generally very little engagement with politics by local residents. Despite the margin of this seat being lower than Campbelltown, I think this seat is probably in less danger of being lost by Labor, although that’s not to say it won’t.
Polling from weekend put co-alition ahead 52/48 on primaries, Nola Fisher at about 7.5% of the primary vote.
How were Fraser’s preferences divided up in the new poll? Still 50/50?
Shran, haven’t divided preferences. They have been discounted. This seat could be one to be determined on preference split. One would think however, they would favour the co-alition here. A large number of unconfirmed voters here. I’d suggest plenty worried about voting Liberal but can’t stand Labor again.
Ben, can I just point out that Simon McCaffrey is not officially listed as an ‘independent’ candidate. He simply has no affiliation indicated, nor the word ‘independent’.
The NSW Branch lef by Michael O’Donohue does not recognise Simon McCaffrey.
Dr Simon McCaffrey is not welcome back to the real Branch.
He is out and we intend to keep him out for good for going over to the Nick William’s group.
Is Alan also running in Macquarie Fields???
No, but Boutros Zalloua paid a visit here and he is running against Alan.
Thought that I ought to stand up for a good ALP MP like Alan. I do not support Boutros.
We in Casula are voting Greens. Bill Cashman 1 with the preference going to Andrew. Bill has worked very hard in this area unlike others. He has been at the forefront of many issues including noise barriers. He pushed it to the upper house. The intermodal issue and Hoxton Park sewerage issue. The library.. and the list goes on. He genuinely gives a damn about the area. He just wants to fix it. The guy is a worker bee and will work hard for the community. I suggest everyone directs the votes to him and if you want put Andrew second. He has been working hard for this area for so long. He deserves the vote unlike these fly ins.