ALP 16.1%
Incumbent MP
Michael Daley, since 2005.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Maroubra covers parts of Randwick and Botany Bay local government areas, including the suburbs of Botany, Banksmeadow, La Perouse, Chifley, Malabar, Matraville, Maroubra and South Coogee.
History
Maroubra has existed as an electoral district since 1950. It has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1950 by the ALP’s Bob Heffron. He had held the seat of Botany since 1930, until its abolition in 1950.
Heffron had left the ALP in 1938 in opposition to Jack Lang, before returning to the party in 1941. He served as a cabinet minister from 1941 to 1959, when he became NSW Premier. He held the role until he retired to the backbench in 1964. He retired from Maroubra in 1968.
Heffron was succeeded by Randwick mayor Bill Haigh. He became a minister when the ALP won power in 1976. He was dropped from the ministry after the 1981 election, and he then retired in 1983.
The 1983 Maroubra by-election was won by Bob Carr. He was appointed as a minister in the Labor government in 1984. When Labor lost power in 1988, Carr become leader of the ALP. In 1991, he led the ALP to a strong result, depriving the Coalition government of a majority. He won power in 1995. He served as Premier for ten years, winning large majorities in 1999 and 2003. He retired in 2005.
The 2005 Maroubra by-election was won by Maroubra councillor Michael Daley. He has served as a minister since 2008.
Candidates
- Michael Daley (Labor)
- Murray Matson (Greens)
- Jacquie Shiha (Christian Democratic Party)
- Michael Feneley (Liberal)
Political situation
Maroubra is held by the ALP by 16% and should be secure.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Daley | ALP | 22,078 | 52.9 | -10.4 |
| Robert Belleli | LIB | 11,581 | 27.7 | +4.7 |
| Anne Gardiner | GRN | 4,972 | 11.9 | +3.1 |
| Derek Pitman | IND | 1,542 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| Kirsten Bennell | DEM | 958 | 2.3 | +1.0 |
| Anthony Ayres | UNI | 634 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Daley | ALP | 24,183 | 66.1 | -7.4 |
| Robert Belleli | LIB | 12,386 | 33.9 | +7.4 |
Booth breakdown
Maroubra has been divided into three areas. The three booths in the City of Botany Bay have been grouped as “Botany”. Booths in the City of Randwick have been divided between Maroubra in the north and Matraville in the south.
The ALP polled around 70% in Matraville and Botany, and a smaller 62% in Maroubra. The Greens polled 13% in Maroubra, compared to around 10% in the rest of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Maroubra | 13.0 | 62.2 | 17,009 | 40.7 |
| Matraville | 10.0 | 70.8 | 11,303 | 27.1 |
| Botany | 10.7 | 70.0 | 4,738 | 11.3 |
| Other votes | 13.0 | 64.3 | 8,715 | 20.9 |
Ah yes, Bob Carr’s old seat, speaking of Mr. Carr, I can imagine he’d be voting Green this year.
Back to the seat though, Labor should retain this, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the margin went sub 5%.
You’d all be surprised at how marginal this seat is on federal figures. Gonna call this my upset big if Labor start losing even their heartland seats.
What’s the margin using the federal result?
3.7%. It’s quite low, particularly given that the federal result in NSW was 51-49 in favour of the Libs – that’s probably 7 or more percent lower than what it probably will be at state level.
There’s a lot of public housing in the electorate around matraville, south maroubra, la perouse and little bay, and a large greek and italian community around botany. Lots of airport workers live in the seat too. The liberals dont’ even bother running in local council elections in Botany. This seat should stay with labor, although the margin might be very tight given the big swings from the federal election and the worse swings likely this year.
Lachlan – if the ALP can’t hold onto this one, the 12 or so seats that Galaxy were talking about is certainly on. I agree this is one that the ALP should not ever lose, but this year will bring some big surprises. I’d expect the south/south-west to move more than seats such as this. But morgieb’s analysis is interesting.
DB – I agree that Labor can lose this. If they do, they’ll struglle to field a cricket team. Keep your eye on areas near anzac parade from kingsford to maroubra junction. There were 7-12% swings there at the federal election, so if it’s going to go liberal, that’s where it will happen. I just get the sense though that if the liberals can’t win this seat this year, they are probably 10-20 years away from having another good shot.
This is my seat. Michael Daley is resaonably popular around here and should hang on just!!!
Daley should hold the seat. He is well known (being a former Randwick Councillor as well) and the vote is pretty entrenched in the Matraville-Botany parts of the electorate. I would expect to see him lose votes around the northern end, and particularly along the coast, which may casue some worries, but he’s also kept his nose reasonably clean as a Minister.
The Libs are putting up Michael Feneley again (after he stood in Kingsford Smith):
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8203510/feneley-maroubra-candidate-for-libs
He’s a reasonable candidate and could give Daley a bit of a run though.
I’ll call this as an ALP hold. There will be some seats on higher margins that go though.
Randwick Mayor Murray Matson has been named as the Greens candidate.
Smart choice by the liberals – Feneley did very well at the federal election in areas like kensington, kingsford and maroubra junction. Some of those areas aren’t in the state electorate of maroubra though. He’ll make it close, but as others have said, Daley is well known and popular and should hang on. He’s the kind of guy you want to still be around the ALP during the rebuilding, too.
Smart by the libs – Feneley got some big swings in kingsford-smith around the north of this seat. I still think Daley’s popularity will get him over the line, though.
Michael Daley signs have been spotted around Bunnerong Road and Anzac Parade in Maroubra Junction. They’re coloured green, but they do have the ALP logo on them.
t’s Interesting that we all expect public housing tenants in awful areas to vote Labor. You would think that after so many years of getting bugger-all from supporting the left, these people would realise that the freedom to achieve that can only be supplied by sensible Tory policies and philosophy. But I suspect that these people are happy to live stunted lives in ugly surroundings. The ALP is the party of the layabout, I suppose.
The empty shop next to Subway at Maroubra is filled with stacks of “green” Michael Daley posters, perhaps it’s some sort of campaign office?
Seen a couple of Michael Feneley posters about too.
Prof. Feneley is a top drawer candidate, potential Health Minister, and is the type of member to shake up politics and get the state moving!
Lovely speil John E ….. and he may indeed be all (or at least some) of what you portray him to be but he’s chosen the wrong seat if he has any hope of longevity in the NSW LA. This may be that once in a century elections that the Libs have any chance of winning this seat ….. but holding it beyond one term ?? I’d be electorate shopping if I were Dr Feneley.
My prediction: One to watch, whoever wins will have a margin less than 4%.
If Daley has a really good campaign I think he’s capable of keeping the swing down around 10%.
Michael Daley will hang on ! will win by 3% preferences will help
Michael Daley’s campaign office next to Subway at Maroubra is completely in blue at the front to go with his green posters.
This seat would be far more marginal based on federal results. Antony’s analysis of the 2010 results gives it only a 3.4% margin.
Another candidate here is Jacquie Shiha for the CDP.
Big Draw for Michael Daley. He has drawn 1st on the ballot and the Liberal Candidate drew Last. That might just be enough.
I’m more confident than ever Daley will win this after his ballot draw. He’s running a very visible campaign, he’s been very feisty in the paper, he’s good a good active local record, and he’s not taking any bullcrap from the liberals. Good on him.
The carbon-dioxide tax could prove a real albatross for Labor and M.Daley.
Daley has also been an integral part of a dysfunctional Government and the Police Minister at a time when violent crime is soaring.
He is also fighting a strong Liberal campaign yet knows he must win to secure his parliamentary pension. His ballot position is good for him, but the fragmentation of the Left’s vote via the Randwick Mayor is conversely bad.
The result here could be a classic.
Violent crime is soaring? Really???
Crime in NSW is actually at historic lows, especially violent crime.
While I agree that the fragmentation of the Left’s vote will make the seat a lot closer, I think you have over-stated the situation here. True, the current government has been dysfunctional but Ben and Hamish are right in that violent crime has been at historic lows. If anything, its drunken violence that has been climbing.
As for the CO2 tax, it’s yet to be seen if this policy has had any effect on the polls as we haven’t had a proper trend develop in the polls since the annoucement. A little early to say that it could hurt as I do believe that people will be able to make the distinction that this is a federal issue.
As there are only 4 candidates I think it might be a little easier for Daley – less fragmentation and a short ballot paper. I don’t expect the Greens to preference Daley, but the CDP will pref the Libs – although what rate of flow they’ll get I don’t know. I wonder if Antony or anyone else has done any analysis on whether the number of candidates effects preference flows in OPV? Of course, I can see the obverse argument are putting – that there’s not much to fragment Feneley’s vote, but its Daley who has the most votes to lose – if there’s no-one else to vote for, those who might have otherwise have voted Independent might feel compelled to go back to Labor rather than vote Liberal. One point of course – the Greens only got 12% last time, so I would expect their vote to rise to more than 16-18%, even with only 4 candidates and a lack of choices. The key will be the Lib primary – if its above 45% then its in the bag, given the likely lack of any preference flows. But that’s more than 17% above what they got last time (27.7%). Big swing in a pretty rusted on area. I think Daley will hold on here, but not by much.
The lack of candidates definitely helps Daley because it forces people to make a real choice instead of just a casual protest vote for some random minor party.
In 2007, there were three other candidates – a Democrat, an independent, and the Unity party. They took 6% of the vote. Where do those votes go now? They’ll have to make the same choice as every other swinging voter between Feneley, Daley, or a protest vote for the greens (maybe exhausting, maybe not).
Also, before anyone gets too excited about CDP preferences, the CDP will not be seen as a viable place to send a protest vote in this seat. The last time they ran a candidate anywhere in this area was at the 2007 federal election, when they only got 1.6% in Kingsford Smith. Their presence on the ballot is actually more likely to hurt Feneley, by slightly dampening the liberal primary vote.
I reiterate my earlier points – too many people in this seat are hostile to the idea of voting Liberal or green. Don’t believe me? Check out the randwick council elections in 2008 – people in south and central ward voted for independents before they voted for liberals and/or greens. I’m sure people would love to protest vote independent, but there’s none on the ballot this year.
Under these circumstances, I believe there just aren’t enough people prepared to hold their nose and vote liberal or exhaust their greens vote to kick out the popular Daley.
It will be interesting to see if the informal vote is much larger in this electorate, there will be some who see none of the candidates as a viable option.
With Daley at donkey, the numbers do point to a comfortable hold.
Greens press release on preferences in Maroubra:
“The Maroubra Election Campaign Committee (MECC) has made the following decision regarding recommending preferences on the Greens how-to-vote leaflet (HTV) for the Maroubra electorate: Our Maroubra HTV will recommend voters place a “1” against our candidate (Murray Matson) ONLY. The HTV will also state that “You may preference other candidates of your choice”. “
While I think Daley will hold, there will be nothing “comfortable” about it. If one overlays the Kingsford-Smith figures into Maroubra, Daley hold by less than 2%. Argurably, there is more anger at state labor than there was for Gillard in August, and with the vast majority of Greens preferences exhausting, I thing it will be a very long night for Daley. Fennely also has the profile he built up in August to build on. Daley to hold, but only just.
Our local paper here. the Southern Courier. is painting Maroubra as a photo finish. I still think Daley will hang on, but Matson should take away a chunk of the left’s vote and without those preferences Feneley might just get there.
acermark – I’d suggest if the 69/31 in Sydney metro is accurate as reported in Essential today (but suspect it is an overstatement), this seat would well be in play in this case.
Yep DB, if the swing’s that savage Daley will struggle to hang on for sure no matter how popular he is around here.
I’ve heard on the grapevine that ALP polling has Daley ahead and they are confident of victory.
Lachlan, I’ve heard the same, though through the grapevine rather than from the horses mouth. After a strong start, I hear that Lib head office is pulling some workers from the Maroubra campaign to focus on Coogee and, perhaps alarmingly for the Green and Labor supporters here, Balmain.
Why would they transfer workers to Coogee? Coogee is already in the bag.
Hamish – sorry Hamish you seem to be inundated with misinformation. I am not sure where that comes from. The Libs aren’t working in or pulling workers from Coogee or Maroubra. They are working in Balmain. In Balmain it appears they are increasing their margin over the Greens, Firth is no chance of retaining the seat. Actually if you could get $1.10 for Firth not retaining the seat it would be good value.
This seat looks a toss-up. However if the State swing to the Coalition remains at the 15% which current polls suggest the seat WILL BE LOST to Labor.
Why? Because in safe Liberal seats such as Kuringai, North Shore and Lane Cove Labor will only be losing small numbers of votes because their vote is so low to start with. So if Labor is losing an average of say 6% in safe Coalition seats they will bleed heavily in their safe seats to get the State average to 15%.
But will the Coalition really get that 15% (?)….that’s another question altogether.
Hamish – I wouldn’t be surprised about campaign workers moving from Maroubra to Coogee. The liberals had much more volunteers than normal at Randwick junction (in the seat of Coogee) on Saturday.
I can assure all of you that Michael Feneley’s volunteers for the Seat of Maroubra are working harder than ever and in great numbers. I know this as I am one of his volunteers and as far as I am aware, no one has transferred over to Coogee.
This is going to be a tight race in Maroubra but I am confident Feneley will get in – even by a small margin.
Interested to read your comments E.S.
If Feneley is beaten it will only be by the tightest of margins. The bookies still have M.D as firm favourite, however.
Russell, I know the bookies have Daley as a firm favourite. But I think this time, they may have it wrong. The seat of Maroubra will be the one to watch on election night. I’ve been speaking to so many people in the area, and so many will be voting Liberal for the first time on Saturday.
Don’t forget, there was a huge swing in the Maroubra area towards the Liberals at last year’s Federal election in the seat of Kingsford Smith. If this carries over on Saturday, Feneley will get in (especially as the Greens have not preferenced Labor in Maroubra).
Either way, the seat will become marginal after this election, so whoever wins, will need to work really hard over the next 4 years!
I spent a few hours today on the Maroubra trail, and from what I saw I am currently confident we can retain this.
Daley’s at $1.67 at Sportsbet at the moment.
I still think Daley will win. His campaign has probably been one of the best seat campaigns Labor has run at this election.
Lachlan – agreed.