ALP 16.1%
Incumbent MP
Michael Daley, since 2005.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Maroubra covers parts of Randwick and Botany Bay local government areas, including the suburbs of Botany, Banksmeadow, La Perouse, Chifley, Malabar, Matraville, Maroubra and South Coogee.
History
Maroubra has existed as an electoral district since 1950. It has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1950 by the ALP’s Bob Heffron. He had held the seat of Botany since 1930, until its abolition in 1950.
Heffron had left the ALP in 1938 in opposition to Jack Lang, before returning to the party in 1941. He served as a cabinet minister from 1941 to 1959, when he became NSW Premier. He held the role until he retired to the backbench in 1964. He retired from Maroubra in 1968.
Heffron was succeeded by Randwick mayor Bill Haigh. He became a minister when the ALP won power in 1976. He was dropped from the ministry after the 1981 election, and he then retired in 1983.
The 1983 Maroubra by-election was won by Bob Carr. He was appointed as a minister in the Labor government in 1984. When Labor lost power in 1988, Carr become leader of the ALP. In 1991, he led the ALP to a strong result, depriving the Coalition government of a majority. He won power in 1995. He served as Premier for ten years, winning large majorities in 1999 and 2003. He retired in 2005.
The 2005 Maroubra by-election was won by Maroubra councillor Michael Daley. He has served as a minister since 2008.
Candidates
- Michael Daley (Labor)
- Murray Matson (Greens)
- Jacquie Shiha (Christian Democratic Party)
- Michael Feneley (Liberal)
Political situation
Maroubra is held by the ALP by 16% and should be secure.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Daley | ALP | 22,078 | 52.9 | -10.4 |
| Robert Belleli | LIB | 11,581 | 27.7 | +4.7 |
| Anne Gardiner | GRN | 4,972 | 11.9 | +3.1 |
| Derek Pitman | IND | 1,542 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| Kirsten Bennell | DEM | 958 | 2.3 | +1.0 |
| Anthony Ayres | UNI | 634 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Daley | ALP | 24,183 | 66.1 | -7.4 |
| Robert Belleli | LIB | 12,386 | 33.9 | +7.4 |
Booth breakdown
Maroubra has been divided into three areas. The three booths in the City of Botany Bay have been grouped as “Botany”. Booths in the City of Randwick have been divided between Maroubra in the north and Matraville in the south.
The ALP polled around 70% in Matraville and Botany, and a smaller 62% in Maroubra. The Greens polled 13% in Maroubra, compared to around 10% in the rest of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Maroubra | 13.0 | 62.2 | 17,009 | 40.7 |
| Matraville | 10.0 | 70.8 | 11,303 | 27.1 |
| Botany | 10.7 | 70.0 | 4,738 | 11.3 |
| Other votes | 13.0 | 64.3 | 8,715 | 20.9 |
Thanks to all for your most interesting comments.
I will stick my neck out and back Mike Feneley to win, E.S.
Labor support seems to be collapsing into voting day and 16.1% does not seem sufficient to me for Michael D to hang on, notwithstanding his strong campaign.
The carbon dioxide tax is the icing on the cake for the resurgent Coalition.
What a night is in store for all psephologists.
close, but I say Labor hold.
Centerbet are not fielding a market in this seat. Does that mean they think ALP are a certainty?
Not a certainty by any means. It will be reasonably close, but I think Daley has done enough. He couldn’t have done anything more, really.
I can guarantee that there will not be a change of Government tomorrow, my wife will still be the leader in my household!
.
According to Antony Green’s paper, the ALP had a margin of 3.9% in Fed’10. (43.9% to 43.1% on primaries, before Green prefs). If you factor in OPV thats about 2%. Can the Libs shift that 2%??
In ALP’s favour:
1/ That vote represented a negative vote for Garrett
2/ Daley will get some positive personal vote
3/ The Defensive marginal seat campaign now being waged
On the Downside:
1/ A certain type of social issues voter would not have voted for Tony Abbott but will be prepared to back the state libs (this would be a factor in all the inner city seats)
2/ The State govt is much more on the nose than the ALP was federally.
If you look at it this way its hard to see how the Libs won’t win. That it will be even close demonstrates that you can’t always correlate state and federal results
Daley is home. Brilliant result.
I knew Daley would just get there! And an amazingly small drop in his primary vote all things considered!