Lake Macquarie – NSW 2011

IND 0.1% vs ALP

Incumbent MP
Greg Piper, since 2007.

Geography
Hunter. Lake Macquarie covers those parts of the City of Lake Macquarie on the west side of Lake Macquarie itself, as well as rural parts of Wyong Shire. The seat covers Morriset, Toronto and Fassifern.

History
The electoral district of Lake Macquarie has existed since 1950. The seat was held by the ALP from 1950 until the 2007 election.

Jim Simpson won the seat in 1950. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1956 until the government lost power in 1965. He held the seat until his death in 1968.

The 1969 by-election was won by Lake Macquarie Shire President Merv Hunter. He held the seat until his retirement in 1991. He was succeeded by his son Jeff Hunter. He won re-election in 1995, 1999 and 2003.

In 2007, Hunter was defeated by independent Lake Macquarie Mayor Greg Piper by 106 votes

Candidates

Political situation
Piper holds Lake Macquarie by an extremely slim margin over the ALP. In the current climate, however, Piper should be able to retain the seat with a substantial swing.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jeff Hunter ALP 17,290 40.5 -11.7
Greg Piper IND 12,917 30.3 +30.3
Ken Paxinos LIB 8,310 19.5 -13.7
Suzanne Pritchard GRN 2,441 5.7 -2.5
Rex Morgan CDP 921 2.2 +1.9
Leonard Hodge AAFI 770 1.8 -1.0

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Greg Piper IND 18,654 50.1
Jeff Hunter ALP 18,548 49.9

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lake Macquarie have been divided into four areas. The sparsely populated parts of Wyong Shire have been grouped together. Booths in Lake Macquarie local government area have been divided into three areas, from north to south: the groups of “North”, “Toronto” and “Morriset”.

Independent candidate Greg Piper won a majority of almost 63% in Wyong and 53% in Morisset. In the larger areas of Toronto and the north of the seat, the ALP won small majorities.

The Liberal Party polled between 13% and 18% in the Lake Macquarie council area, but almost 50% of the primary vote in Wyong.

 

Polling booths in Lake Macquarie at the 2007 state election. Wyong in green, Morriset in orange, Toronto in blue, North in yellow.

 

Voter group GRN % LIB % IND 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Toronto 5.5 16.6 48.6 11,509 27.0
North 6.0 13.5 46.5 10,903 25.6
Morisset 4.8 18.6 53.1 9,349 21.9
Wyong 7.5 48.2 62.8 1,457 13.7
Other votes 6.3 26.3 50.6 9,424 22.1
Two-party-preferred votes in Lake Macquarie at the 2007 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Lake Macquarie at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Lake Macquarie at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in northern parts of Lake Macquarie at the 2007 state election.
Liberal primary votes in northern parts of Lake Macquarie at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in northern parts of Lake Macquarie at the 2007 state election.

9 COMMENTS

  2. Most pundits tipped Tate and Blackmore ahead of Piper to be successful in their respectibe seats 2007…only Piper was! This shows the imperative for strategy – Piper had the Lib’s preference on their ticket, while giving nothing away on his own. Despite a strong Labor effort to disuade voters from preferencing (expect to see that again) the preferences did flow and counted for the 106 votes that got Piper across the line. This time around the Lib’s are not placing any focus on Lake Macquarie believing that Piper will hold it away from Labor. Which he will do…he is a popular Mayor and well known throughout the electorate…Labor have put an unknown up against him (despite having several capable local councillors) which broadcasts their belief that the seat is not winnable – not worth the expense of fighting for.

  3. I think the prediction will be right – Piper may hold with a minor swing towards him. He seems very popular and respected as Mayor and Local MP and is across alot of issues in the area.

  6. Via Wikipedia: In the 2008 Lake Macquarie mayoral election, Piper got 60%, compared to 27% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. If that’s repeated there should be a pretty decent swing to him (my guess: about 10%), although it’s hard to say as the Libs didn’t run in that election. Labor might even come third, then he’d be winning on their preferences instead.

  7. My guess would be that a lot of would-be Lib voters (those that bothered, is it compulsory to vote in local government elections in NSW?) would have voted for Piper, they’d probably exhaust in the election, but as I stated earlier, Piper should win again relatively easily.

  8. Perhaps it’s ironic that Piper holds just about the most marginal seat in NSW, and yet he’s very likely to hold his seat while fellow Independents on bigger margins bite the dust.
    Piper snuck in on other people’s preferences last time – this time he should finish on top in the primary count, regardless of whether or not he needs preferences.

  9. Whats this rot about the Lib’s not running for Lake Macquarie in the 2007 election ..they did run and came in 3rd behind the sitting ALP member Jeff Hunter and Greg Piper…it was the Lib’s preferences that got Piper over the line…this time around the biggest difference is Piper is the incumbent and with no long standing or known Labor candidate Piper’s majority streaked away…

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