ALP 26.9%
Incumbent MP
Paul Lynch, since 1995.
Geography
South-Western Sydney. The seat covers the Liverpool CBD and parts of the City of Liverpool to the northwest of the Liverpool centre, including the suburbs Ashcroft, Cartwright, Green Valley, Hinchinbrook, Miller, Warwick Farm, Cecil Hills, Kemps Creek, and parts of West Hoxton. It also includes Bonnyrigg Heights in Fairfield.
History
The electoral district of Liverpool has existed since the 1950 election. It has always been held by the Labor Party.
The seat was first won in 1950 by then-Premier James McGirr. He had sat in the Legislative Assembly since 1922, most recently as Member for Bankstown.
McGirr retired in 1952, and the Liverpool by-election was won by Jack Mannix. He became a minister in the Labor government in 1960, serving as Justice Minister until the government’s defeat in 1965.
Mannix retired in 1971, and he was replaced by Liverpool councillor George Paciullo. Paciullo served as a minister from 1983 to 1988. When Labor lost power in 1988 he was considered a contender for party leader, but following Carr’s appointment, he retired in 1989.
The 1989 by-election saw a bitter preselection battle between Paul Lynch and Mark Latham. This was resolved by preselecting former Health Minister Peter Anderson. Anderson had held Nepean from 1978 to 1981, and Penrith from 1981 until a shock loss at the 1988 election. He had held ministerial office since 1982.
Anderson won the by-election in 1989, and was considered a possible future leader of the ALP. He failed to gain the support of local Labor members, and in 1995 lost preselection to Paul Lynch.
Lynch won the seat in 1995, and was re-elected in 1999, 2003 and 2007. Following the 2007 election he was appointed as a minister in the Labor government.
Candidates
- Michael Byrne (Independent)
- Signe Westerberg (Greens)
- Matt Attia (Christian Democratic Party)
- Paul Lynch (Labor)
- Mazhar Hadid (Liberal)
Political situation
Liverpool is a safe Labor seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Lynch | ALP | 26,206 | 64.9 | -4.8 |
| Ned Mannoun | LIB | 7,261 | 18.0 | +2.7 |
| Liliana Ljubicic | IND | 2,093 | 5.2 | +5.2 |
| Elizabeth Hall | CDP | 1,686 | 4.2 | +1.7 |
| Bill Cashman | GRN | 1,597 | 4.0 | -0.7 |
| Ian Gelling | AAFI | 855 | 2.1 | +0.3 |
| Kek Tai | UNI | 685 | 1.7 | -0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Lynch | ALP | 28,036 | 76.9 | -3.7 |
| Ned Mannoun | LIB | 8,410 | 23.1 | +3.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Liverpool have been divided into three areas. The east covers areas closest to the Liverpool CBD. The west covers the sparsely-populated areas of the seat.
The ALP polled around 78-79% in the centre and east of the seat, and a smaller 71% in the west. Independent candidate Liliana Ljubicic polled over 12% in the east of the seat, and no more than 4.4% in the rest of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | CDP % | IND % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 79.0 | 17,822 | 44.1 |
| East | 4.0 | 4.4 | 12.3 | 77.9 | 8,612 | 21.3 |
| West | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 71.6 | 8,111 | 20.1 |
| Other votes | 5.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 77.3 | 5,828 | 14.4 |
Also contesting this seat is independent Michael Byrne.
Lynch does nothing, is never seen. He’s one of those ALP invisible men who really don’t deserve re-election but probably will.
Your summation of Lynch is quite accurate. A number of very servicable Lab MP’s will be washed away yet this individual will survive throught the good fortune of having an effectively unloseable seat.
He’s clear evidential proof that the ALP Left has just as many timewasters & good for nothings as the much maligned Right.
This electorate will vote Labor because they dont have a choice about it.
They will never vote Liberal as the Libs cant connect with them, nor greens because green left policies hurt worker left interests.
A great independent could go well, but doubt there is one.
There was a time that I could agree with Lynch being a time-waster, but ever since he became a minister, his performance has actually gotten a lot better. There are clearly more services, transport-wise, as well as the hospital upgrades, which only reflect well on Lynch as an MP, in the area. Also, he played a significant role in getting Liverpool Council to reverse its ridiculous decision to close Casula and Green Valley Libraries down.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see this vote head in the positive direction for Labor. Lynch, despite a lot of enmity towards him from the Non-Labor forces in the area, is still the best possible candidate for Liverpool. No one on the other side of politics really stands out in the Liverpool area, and that is just a fact of life. Until such an alternative emerges, or Lynch retires, you’re never going to see this seat turn Liberal or Independent.
My prediction: Labor retain, 15-20% swing to Liberals, unless Michael Bryne has a high profile (can someone in the area tell me how much of a profile he has?)
30 years of political activism in Liverpool. Could easily outpoll the Greens, who really are ineffectual in the South-West, and could outpoll Hadid, who’s on the nose for his initial support of the closing of Casula and Green Valley Libraries, and the possible closing of Miller and Moorebank Libraries. He repudiated his stance, along with his fellow Liberals on Liverpool Council, but a lot of political damage has been done.
I’ll back Byrne to come second in this seat. His candidacy probably means that Lynch will suffer a swing, but I really doubt it will be anywhere near 10%. There are far too many rusted-on Labor voters for this to be a reality. Lynch is still a far better prospective MP than Byrne, who, for all his good intentions, would ensure that Liverpool would slip further back, especially in light of a almost-certain O’Farrell win.
Matt Attia is running here for the CDP.
I have lived in the Liverpool area for over 40 years..many changes l have not liked..I feel we are being over populated,and Julia Gillard said during the election,she was going to stop dumping migrants in the West…promises are soon forgotten,even the big lie about the carbon tax.
Paul Lynch has not done anything that l can recall…he may have but l don’t recall it.His office is often filled with migrants wanting someone to come out here…l never did hear how he calmed them down as l left his office.During the Federal election l voted for Sam Eskaros,then l realied he was on Liverpool council..he ran for Federal politics in August,now State politics in March..he was born in Eygpy,and now l am wondering if he has dual citizenship,which would ban him from running for office…can anyone tell me if he is?.confused? you bet I am,and now for the first time in my long life I will be voting informal…as l have not seen hide nor hair of anyone even wanting my vote…many friends feel the same way!!
Sally: I’m sure he doesn’t have dual citizenship if he’s still running for office.
Anyway, this is a seat which won’t go Libs even on the best day. And Paul Lynch has shown some glimpses of competency from what I’ve heard. So Labor retain.
Sam Eskaros is not on Council. Mazhar Hadid the Liverpool candidate is. Sam is running for Macquarie Fields. You can not hold Dual citizenship while running for office
According to one of the local newspapers, apparently a lot of Liverpool voters are undecided. Those who did vote in a local poll, put Lynch ahead of Hadid by a fair way. I’d say a more decent-sized swing in Liverpool is happening, but will be nowhere near the required swing. Byrne is also ahead of the Greens, as expected.
I think that poll only had about 30 respondants or something like that, it was taken at the forum where lynch had a lot of his own people. I don’t think it is a clear reflection. I do expect a swing, but unsure it will be more than what happened in the Federal Election.
Have to agree with you, Rebecca. I think it’s clear that Labor will retain the seat, but I’m still unsure about the gravity of the swing and whether there will be a swing at all. If you were selecting candidates on pure merit, Paul Lynch is still the best candidate by a fair distance, followed by Byrne, and then, a long way back, Mazhar Hadid.
My understanding is that the restrictions on dual citizens running for office only apply at the federal level, not state or local government.
Yep, Mike Rann still holds Kiwi citizenship but is the SA premier. KK gave her American citizenship up, though.
Michael Byrne has my vote. 🙂
He might have your vote, but Lynch will win and win big. Hadid is hopeless, along with the rest of the Liberals in Liverpool, and Byrne is a credible voice in the darkness, which is a shame for the contest. Lynch is still the best candidate on pure merit, and will come out of this unscathed, compared to Ashton, Rees, McDonald, Khoshaba, Zangari, Lalich and Scaysbrook.
In fact, if it’s a worst-case scenario, Lynch will be deputy Labor Leader. I know that’s a bold prediction. How good would that be?
Perhaps he and Barbara Perry will be the two surviving Labor MPs with the smallest swings registered against them?
Pleasing result for Labor here. The core Labor voters in Sadleir, Miller, Cartwright, Busby, Heckenberg and Ashcroft all stayed loyal, along with Liverpool. Lynch needs to work on Cecil Hills. Lost booths there. I think Lynch has the highest or second-highest Labor margin in NSW now.
As I mentioned above, big result for Lynch. The slurs and the egg-throwing from the Liberals didn’t work. When are they going to learn that Lynch is actually well-liked in the electorate, and is not an invisible time-waster? As soon as they learn this, they will actually make inroads.
Labor is not strong in the rural and recently built-up parts of this electorate, and Macquarie Fields for that matter. If there is more of a redistribution south-west for this electorate, then Lynch will have to work a lot harder for his votes. Very strong results in the 2168 part of the electorate, where I lived for a number of years in the 1990’s. Backed Lynch strongly, as did, surprisingly, for me, Bonnyrigg Heights (It should really be part of Cabramatta). Livo did its bit yet again, with a strong endorsement of Lynch, despite the idiocy of the Liberal candidate, who was once a member of the Labor Party. It’s interesting to note that the last two Liberal candidates for Liverpool were once members of the Labor Party.
I think this election proved, once and for all, for all Lynch’s detractors, that there’s a strong personal vote for him out there. They need to offer alternatives for Liverpool, not bash Lynch. They just play into his hands. Other than Rees and Tebbutt, there was no other performance from Labor that was more pleasing.